Transcript An International Polar Prediction Project WWRP Chair: Gilbert Brunet Rapporteur: Barry Goodison WWRP Proposed Tasks  Initial focus on Nowcasting (minutes to a few hours), Mesoscale.

An International Polar Prediction
Project
WWRP
Chair: Gilbert Brunet
Rapporteur: Barry Goodison
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WWRP
Proposed Tasks
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Initial focus on Nowcasting (minutes to a few hours), Mesoscale Weather
Forecasting (a few hours to 48 hours) and medium-range forecasts (one day to
two weeks) by accelerating research on the prediction of high-impact weather and
environmental events in Polar regions;
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Seasonal forecast will be dealt within the context of the WCRP-WWRP-THORPEX
meeting in Exeter in December 2010 ;
WWRP
Medium-Range Prediction
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Assessment of medium-range forecasts based on the WMO verification protocol
by adding the Polar regions to the standard verification egions (e.g. tropics, NH,
SH, etc.); løøk at poles separately; looking at specific needs in polar regions
including TIGGE activity;
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Next generation global and regional re-analyses projects would address specific
Polar region needs (linkage with THORPEX- Data Assimilation); WCRP WOAP
linkage
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Joint field campaigns and more long term activities for verification (e.g. weather
and ice forecasts) and optimal utilization of satellite-based and in-situ
observations that involve nations operating global NWP systems and sea ice
services;
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Studies to assess the two-way Polar processes and global interactions relevant to3
Proposed Tasks
Mesoscale Weather and Nowcasting Prediction
Tackle the identified polar prediction challenges through the
organization of focused research development programs (RDPs);
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Note that the CAS-WCRP WGNE has a new physics
parameterizations activity; discuss on how polar issues can be
addressed
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RDPs could be TIGGE-LAM or NAEFS like projects with
extensive comparison experiments and activities;
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Joint field campaigns and more long term activities for verification
(e.g. weather and ice forecasts) and optimal utilization of satellitebased and in-situ observations that involve nations operating
regional NWP systems. Polar specific regional models run at
current resolution should be assessed
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Linkage with TIGGE, Mesoscale Weather Forecasting,
WWRP
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Proposed Tasks
Observation networks/systems and datasets
Data access: we need to recommend to EC-PORS
the creation of 1-2 archiving centers for specific polar
datasets (IPY, past field campaigns and ongoing) in
support of RDPs, re-analyses and case studies.
(sustainable, accessible, visualization capability,……)
WWRP
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An International Polar Prediction Project
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WWRP
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Establishment of an IPY legacy project that would
provide a valuable framework to foster co-operative
international research and development efforts to
improve high impact weather and environmental
prediction capabilities for the Polar Regions.
This legacy project would coordinate polar initiatives
(new or existing).
The IPY legacy project should ultimately tap on the
scientific and human capacity of the NMHS having
interest in Polar region forecasting applications.
It should include the participation of the TIGGE
(THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble), the
WCRP and different observing system organizations:
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An International Polar Prediction Project
WWRP
 Global Observing System of the World Weather Watch (GOS/WWW)
- physical parameters of the atmosphere;
 Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) - chemical parameters of
atmosphere, including ozone;
 Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) - physical, chemical and
biological parameters of the ocean;
 World Hydrological Cycle Observing System (WHYCOS)
 Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS) - hydrological cycle
parameters (GTN-H);
 GCOS Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) and GCOS
Terrestrial Network for Glaciers (GTN-G) – parameters of
cryosphere.
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The success of the IPY legacy project will depends also on the ability to
provide information that impacts user decision making and this will need
coordination with SERA, WMO WIS and CBS.
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An International Polar Prediction Project
Next steps:
Creation of a steering committee with adequate
expertise, including representation from users;
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First meeting to establish an implementation plan
aligned with the goals defined in this workshop,
including resource requirements and coordination
strategy (e.g. WCRP).
WWRP
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Considerations for an International Polar Prediction
Project
EC-PORS
WCRP
Scientific challenges identified at the Oslo workshop,
5-7 October 2010.
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WMO Executive Council panel of experts on Polar
Observations, Research and Services (EC-PORS)
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Recommended by WMO Congress XV – 2007,
established by Exec council in 2008. Focus on
integrating polar region prediction activities from
research to services.
EC-PORS has ~40 members.
Services should drive EC-PORS efforts with many
organisation involved.
APECS (Association of Polar Early Career Scientists):
recommendation is to encourage more involvement
from early-career scientists.
Suggested development of a polar prediction system
could represent central motivating idea of an
international polar decade (IPD).
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Polar Research collaborative opportunities within the
WCRP
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WWRP
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Arctic climate system study (ACSYS 1994-2003):
Numerous observations, including submarines
provided observations.
Climate-system historical forecast project (CHFP),
coordinated regional downscaling experiment
(CORDEX), stratospheric and polar climate.
SPARC: study effect of ozone layer, sudden
stratospheric warmings/coolings, predictability of the
polar vortex, polar observations (e.g. O3) in SPARCIPY.
GEWEX coordinated energy and water cycle
observations project.
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Polar Research collaborative opportunities within the
WCRP
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New study CEOP/CliV Cold Regions Study consists of
40 regional stations providing highly quality energy
cycle observations.
Solas: interactions between ocean, atmosphere, seaice and snow pack in polar regions.
AIcI: Air Ice Chemical interactions (IGAC, SOAS,
CLic).
CLic: ice sheets + sea-level rise (SLR),
marine/terrestrial cryosphere. There exist numerous
initiatives that integrate CliC themes e.g. carbon
permafrost, regional climate modelling, sea-level rise
(SLR).
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WCRP Long-term objectives
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WWRP
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Enabling prediction of Arctic/Antarctic climate,
terrestrial cryosphere: assessment of past, current and
future change and variability.
WCRP workshop: Seasonal to multidecadal
predictability of polar climate, 25-29th Oct 2010 in
Bergen. Idea is create a road map to arctic climate
predictions, perform gap analysis, and technical and
programmatic solutions, e.g. implement a seamless
system.
CLIVAR project leading on reanalysis of Arctic ocean.
Concept of an international polar decade (IPD), to
permit development of reanalysis, observations,
modelling and DA.
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