U SER NEEDS FROM A GHG INVENTORY PERSPECTIVE * UNECE Task Force on Climate Change Statistics 19-20 November 2012, Geneva Ricardo Fernandez European Environment Agency 1

* Background paper: ‘User needs of climate change statistics from a greenhouse gas inventory perspective: Gaining support for improved NSO involvement’

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Outline of the presentation

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II.

Objective and typology of user-needs [compilers, reviewers and analysts] Quality principles in GHG inventories [what does quality mean?] III.

National inventory systems [how to ensure quality] IV.

International review under UNFCCC/KP [who ‘rubber-stamps’ quality] V.

Improving/enhancing the role of NSOs in GHG inventories: examples for the energy sector VI.

Summary/conclusions

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I. Objective and typology of user-needs

 Objective: To provide a short overview of user needs from a GHG inventory perspective and give you some examples of the role of NSOs to meeting those needs NSOs already connected to the inventory world - UNECE survey in 2011 shows …  36 NSOs are involved in GHG inventories (>75%)    19 NSOs are involved in providing source data 11 NSOs participate in GHG calculations 6 NSOs are responsible for reporting GHG inventories  Typology of user needs: i.

GHG inventory compilers: provision/sharing of quality AD to estimate EM ii.

iii.

GHG inventory reviewers: flagging quality improvements in ARRs [quality of CO 2 EM in the energy sector = quality of AD] GHG/climate mitigation analysts: complexity (ERTs) vs. simplicity [policy makers, journalists, general public]

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II. What does quality mean?

 i.

ii.

Quality principles are defined in the UNFCCC Reporting Guidelines (TACCC) http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/cop8/08.pdf

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iv.

v.

Transparency: Clear assumptions and methodologies Accuracy: unbiased estimates reflecting true emissions (no systematic error) + reduce uncertainty (improve precision) Consistency: Over all its elements and over time (time series) Comparability: Spatial, through agreed IPCC methodologies Completeness: [All countries] + all sectors + all gases + all years

Because the EU is the sum of its MS, the quality of EU GHG estimates reflects the quality of MS GHG estimates!

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III. How to ensure quality, at EU level?

a. Legal basis ‘EU GHG Monitoring Mechanism Decision’ - EU is Party to UNFCCC/KP and coordinates with 27 MS b. Institutional arrangements ‘EU National System’ - internal set-up to deliver high quality GHG inventories c. WG1 Climate Change Committee - forum to discuss compilation and review activities + quality improvements [all 27 MS & EU National System] d. The EU’s QA/QC Programme & Plan - Who does what, when and how in the EU’s National System?

Institutions in the EU’s National System

European Environment Agency [EEA, Copenhagen] European Topic Centre on Air Pollution & Climate Change Mitigation [Vienna] DG CLIMA, European Commission [Brussels] DG Joint Research Centre, European Commission [Ispra] DG Eurostat, European Commission [Luxembourg]

Roles/responsibilities (more detail in QA/QC Plan)

Inventory Agency: coordination role in compilation & implementation of QA/QC Programme Technical compilation & QA/QC Plan [EEA’s right hand] Official submission to UNFCCC on behalf of the EU + National System, Registry information Agriculture and LULUCF IPCC reference approach CO2 emissions fossil fuel combustion & quality of energy statistics

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IV. Who ’rubber-stamps’ quality in emission inventories?

 International reviews under UNFCCC/KP : the quality of a GHG inventory is reviewed annually by independent group of experts from Annex I and non-Annex I Parties to UNFCCC ~ very thorough reviews!

 Reviews show that quality depends on well functioning national systems * : a) Planning ~ e.g. allocate responsibilities and ensure sufficient capacity & establish a QA/QC Plan and define quality objectives b) c) Preparation ~ e.g. estimate GHG emissions/removals using appropriate methods (IPCC) & collect sufficient activity data and EFs Management ~ e.g. documentation/archiving & responding to questions during UNFCCC reviews *More info on National Systems: Decision 19/CMP.1, Guidelines for national systems under Article 5, para 1 of the Kyoto Protocol

GHG Inventory cannot be perfect but needs to reflect continuous quality improvements!

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V.i Examples of user needs during compilation in the energy sector: AD to estimate emissions

 The quality of the energy balances is fundamental > Energy sector = 80% of total GHG emissions  Examples of current/potential involvement by NSOs to improve AD quality  Eurostat’s role in the EU’s national system  IPCC Reference Approach [top down, fuel based]    Sectorial Approach [bottom up, using harmonised energy balances reported under the EU Energy statistics Regulation] Improvements in the quality of energy statistics Consistency of energy balances (ESR) and inventory data (CRF)  Key category analysis [most important emission/sink sources in a country] ~ easy to know where to focus quality improvements  Data sharing among all institutions concerned is essential! inventory compilers need access to all relevant data for a good quality inventory

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Consistency of energy balances and AD in GHG inventories (crucial!)

EU Energy Statistics Regulation [ESR] ~ consistency energy balance & activity data in CRFs

Art. 6.2 ‘Every reasonable effort shall be undertaken to ensure coherence between energy data declared in accordance with Annex B and data declared in accordance with Commission Decision 2005/166/EC of 10 February 2005 laying down the rules for implementing Decision No 280/2004/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol’.

FUEL TYPES

EU-15

Liquid Fuels (excluding international bunkers) Solid Fuels (excluding international bunkers) Gaseous Fuels Other

Apparent energy consumption (PJ) REFERENCE APPROACH SECTORAL APPROACH DIFFERENCE Apparent energy consumption (excluding non CO 2 emissions energy use and feedstocks) Energy consumption CO 2 emissions Energy consumption CO 2 emissions (PJ) (Gg) (PJ) (Gg) (%) (%)

21,344.29

18,576.91

1,355,601.69

17,806.11

1,298,192.68

4.33

4.42

7,257.59

15,355.88

NO 7,235.17

15,183.49

NE 685,676.72

847,534.97

NA,NO 6,737.75

15,248.89

745.01

696,257.09

834,265.24

55,433.19

7.38

-0.43

-100.00

-1.52

1.59

-100.00

Total 43,957.75

40,995.57

2,888,813.39

40,537.76

2,884,148.21

1.13

0.16

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Tier 1 Key category analysis: prioritising inventory improvements > focus where it makes a difference! [tier 2 includes uncertainty]

Source category by gas, EU-15 Gg CO 2 equ.

1 A 1 a Public Electricity and Heat Production: Solid Fuels (CO2) 1 A 3 b Road Transportation: Diesel oil (CO2) 1 A 1 a Public Electricity and Heat Production: Gaseous Fuels (CO2) 1 A 4 b Residential: Gaseous Fuels (CO2) 1 A 3 b Road Transportation: Gasoline (CO2) 1 A 4 b Residential: Liquid Fuels (CO2) 1 A 2 f Other: Gaseous Fuels (CO2) 1 A 4 a Commercial/Institutional: Gaseous Fuels (CO2) 4 A 1 Cattle: (CH4) 1 A 1 b Petroleum refining: Liquid Fuels (CO2) 4 D 1 Direct Soil Emissions: (N2O) 1 A 2 f Other: Liquid Fuels (CO2) 1 A 2 a Iron and Steel: Solid Fuels (CO2) 6 A 1 Managed Waste disposal on Land: (CH4) 2 A 1 Cement Production: (CO2) 4 D 3 Indirect Emissions: (N2O) 2 F 1 Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Equipment : (HFC) 1 A 4 c Agriculture/Forestry/Fisheries: Liquid Fuels (CO2) 1 A 4 a Commercial/Institutional: Liquid Fuels (CO2) 2 C 1 Iron and Steel Production: (CO2) 1 A 1 a Public Electricity and Heat Production: Liquid Fuels (CO2) 1 A 1 a Public Electricity and Heat Production: Other Fuels (CO2)

1990

752,876 268,209 60,401 161,967 362,649 169,658 91,723 60,058 115,585 96,256 113,326 116,510 112,264 125,218 80,174 80,498 84 56,845 74,142 47,059 123,602 12,913

2010

555,893 501,330 261,344 252,378 235,947 128,748 113,609 105,089 102,332 100,541 94,285 83,616 81,874 73,718 64,532 64,207 56,476 49,212 43,687 37,961 35,848 35,647

Trend

T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

1990 Level 2010

L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

share of higher Tier share in total GHG em issions Cum ulative share in total GHG em issions

97% 90% 95% 90% 86% 95% 96% 95% 100% 99% 35% 96% 100% 98% 72% 31% 89% 38% 100% 90% 97% 96% 14.6% 13.2% 6.9% 6.6% 6.2% 3.4% 3.0% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.2% 2.2% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.3% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 27.8% 34.7% 41.4% 47.6% 51.0% 54.0% 56.7% 59.4% 62.1% 64.6% 66.8% 68.9% 70.9% 72.6% 74.2% 75.7% 77.0% 78.2% 79.2% 80.1% 81.1% Total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF 4,249,345 3,797,613 100.0%

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Potential role for NSOs during compilation, linked to QA/QC – verification of emission estimates

 Energy sector, IPCC Reference Approach for CO 2 combustion (mandatory in UNFCCC Reporting) emissions from fossil fuel  What about other sectors? Industrial processes, Waste, Agriculture and LULUCF  Can there be a role for NSOs? e.g. to provide a third party ‘verification’ of activity data / emissions provided by MS on a sectorial bases [Eurostat could be instrumental for the EU’s QA/QC perspective]

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V.ii Examples of user needs during review: to ensure continuous quality improvements

 Annual Review Reports [ARRs] are the best source of information to motivate improvements in data quality http://unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/inventory_review_reports/items/6048.php

 GHG inventory agency coordinates input by institutions in the national system  If NSO is not in the national system > be proactive if issue/s flagged in ARRs fall under NSO competence  2 examples of relevant recommendations to improving the quality of AD [ARRs 2011 cycle]   Consistency between energy balances and GHG inventory activity data Consistency between energy balances and data reported under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS)

Link energy balances and CRF activity data

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In some countries, the ERTs can facilitate communication and/or sharing of information between different institutions GHG inventory compilers need to be able do their job [should have access to all relevant data for the estimation of emissions]

Link energy balances and EU ETS activity data

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ETS activity data is not always available to energy balance & inventory compilers Improving the consistency between ETS, energy balances and CRF activity data is essential [e.g. EU-target setting assumes consistency of ETS and inventory data]

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V.iii Examples of user needs for a wider audience

  GHG inventories are really complex: inventory compilers and reviewers understand them! GHG inventories cannot answer everything about climate change, and aren’t designed for policy makers, journalists or the general public.         Some examples of questions by journalists are: What about the role of renewables, and nuclear? Are biomass emissions carbon neutral? What about carbon intensity and energy efficiency? Is the economic recession reducing emissions?

Is the EU ETS reducing emissions?

Are warmer winters leading to lower heating demand and emissions?

What about embedded carbon / exported emissions?

This was 2 years ago (!), what about last year or this year?

The inventory alone cannot answer these questions! additional data usually collected by NSOs

Why did emissions decline despite of increased electricity/heat generation?

Overall fuel use somewhat stable but emissions fell!   Less coal (101 tCO 2 /TJ) & liquid (77 tCO 2 /TJ). More gas (56 tCO 2 /TJ) & biomass (CO 2 Memo) Role of non carbon fuels (?) > Non-combustible fuels aren’t reported in GHG inventories

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Source: EEA

Total economy [Eurostat’s] energy balance: nuclear and renewables also played a significant role [and not just fossil fuels=inventory]

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Source: by EEA based on Eurostat’s energy balances

What is the share of household emissions, or transport? … on an UNFCCC-reporting basis, households/services look ‘too good’ … on an end-user basis [not UNFCCC!], the picture changes completely – this would not be possible without Eurostat’s energy statistics

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Source: EEA Source: EEA method. GHG emissions, EEA, Energy balances, Eurostat

GDP/recession, other factors? Difficult to explain reality without these factors

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Source: by EEA, based on Eurostat’s energy balances, national economic accounts and population statistics.

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GHG inventories run on t-2 (not timely!): ‘competition’ with socio-economic data, ETS …. running on t-1 > EEA developed ‘proxy’ emission estimates in t-1

No apparent link (on average in the EU) Significantly warmer winter months in 2011 (December 2010 very cold!)

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5. Summary/conclusions … own reflections     The EU National System would not function properly without the work of Eurostat [… and other NSOs in MS] Eurostat’s current role in the EU NS is essential during compilation & review: IPCC Reference Approach, Sectorial Approach, Energy Statistics Regulation [quality & consistency between energy balances and CRF activity data] Eurostat’s future role in the EU NS can (should) also increase:     Capacity building to EU MS to improve the quality of the energy balances Helping improving the consistency of ETS AD and the energy balances [e.g. legally ‘encouraging’ data sharing between agencies] Provision of timely socio-economic data for trend analysis [GDP, population, heating degree days, cooling degree days …] Verification of MS AD in all sectors reported in GHG inventories [i.e. third Party verification similar to the IPCC Reference Approach for energy] Formalising institutional relations (NS) can provide certainty about the roles and responsibilities [& visibility] + NSOs in NS may also increase ‘public trust’

The key objective remains good quality GHG inventories!

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Thank you for your attention!

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