CONCEPT Emissions Model: Expanding Transparency, Improving Flexibility, Improving science Mark Janssen – LADCO CMAS CONFERENCE October 6-8, 2008 Chapel Hill, North Carolina.
Download ReportTranscript CONCEPT Emissions Model: Expanding Transparency, Improving Flexibility, Improving science Mark Janssen – LADCO CMAS CONFERENCE October 6-8, 2008 Chapel Hill, North Carolina.
CONCEPT Emissions Model: Expanding Transparency, Improving Flexibility, Improving science Mark Janssen – LADCO CMAS CONFERENCE October 6-8, 2008 Chapel Hill, North Carolina What is CONCEPT? • Open Source PostgreSQL based chemical transport emissions model • Integrated GIS(postgis), fully spatially enabled • Data and code transparency is a critical element to understand how data will be processed. CONCEPT Emissions Model • Foundation of development community • Point and Area - Improved Temporal • Nonroad – Runs day specific met/Temporal • Link Level Onroad Mobile • Process Based Ammonia • Internal GIS for visualization, spatial allocation. Spatial processing just happens. Recent CONCEPT Developments • • • • • Process Based Ammonia Model Biogenics and MEGAN Link based onroad QA. Google Earth implementation Base “N” 2005 inventory beyond RPO’s Focus of Improvements • Data Transparency, Can we understand the data we are using: Google Earth, Onroad QA, • Updated Science: Megan, Process based NH3 model • Improved Performance: NH3 Model • Development and use of model in components that are most different from existing tools. UC Davis/Riverside Process Based Agricultural Ammonia • Consider and analyze all physical, chemical and biochemical processes and reactions that take place and influence ammonia emission rate, • Employ processed based mechanistic and empirical models • Keep mass balances for the flow of nitrogen through each component of an animal waste management system. • New work to create C++ version of the model that is fast enough to build national inventory. Predicted NH3 Emissions from Dairy Lagoon under Different pH (H=25ft and TAN=450mg/L, Fresno) 4.5 4.0 pH = 7.0 pH = 7.4 pH = 7.8 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Month of the year Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb 0.0 Jan Predicted monthly NH3-N emission, kg/cow-mo 3.5 Predicted NH 3 Emissions from Dairy Lagoons at Extreme Conditions (Fresno) 10.0 9.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 pH=7.0, TAN=300mg/L, H=25ft 3.0 pH=7.8, TAN=600mg/L, H=10ft 2.0 1.0 Month of the year Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb 0.0 Jan NH3 Emission, KgN/cow-mo 8.0 Why High Resolution NH3 • Wintertime PM2.5 nitrate peak critical to northern 24 hour PM. • Early modeling seem to indicate NH3 is the limiting pollutant. • Ambient data and processed based model indicate 4x higher emissions on these days. CONCEPT Onroad • Link based onroad inventory • Enhanced temporal allocation. • T3 tool translates from common Travel Demand Models. • Slow to run, but able to resolve many interesting things. 40% drop in NOX in Detroit on weekends due to HDDV changes. Not happening in Chicago. Interstate Vehicle Mix by State and Urban/Rural Vehicle mix 0.4 0.35 U-IL 0.3 U-IN 0.25 U-MI U-MN 0.2 R-IL 0.15 R-IN R-MI 0.1 R-MN 0.05 0 1 2 3 4 Day Of Week 5 6 7 How Link Level Data Changes QA • Current HPMS county level inventories are hard to test against reality. • New methods result in ability to ask “What are the attributes of a link at a specific hour.” • Example Boreman Expressway +50% HDDV congested to 20mph at 3AM • MOBILE6 inputs in database/GIS so easier to ask difficult questions. Example, fleet age distributions of. Motor Vehicles MEGAN Biogenics Model • Implement MEGAN biogenics code into CONCEPT. • Must match photochemical model species with MEGAN species. • Must parse 54 Organic Species to CAMx SOA Species – TOLA, XYLA, ISP, CG3, SQT, TRP Comparing MEGAN and BIOME Emissions Comparison of MEGAN and EMS/BIOME (BEIS3soa) isoprene (July 1, 2002 day) MEGAN predicts similar total daily tons over the modeling domain as BIOME MEGAN estimates more isoprene in the central U.S. Base J Base M1 Base K Base M2 Google Earth In CONCEPT • CONCEPT has an integrated full feature GIS. Integrated means all tables are spatially enabled. CYID map • Google earth cannot handle large data sets. 24 hours of 12km data set for regional grid is too much. • Must dissolve cell boundaries for similar cells. • Project from RPO Lambert to Google Earth(Geo) • Mostly for non-modeler inventory folks as a QA tool. Future of Google Earth in CONCEPT • Export diagnostic reports as Google earth input, IE. Large sources with problematic coordinates • Export link level characteristics for onroad and rail traffic. • Mostly for non-modelers to QA inventory problem with tools publicly available. • People take ownership of inventory when they can look at it at the neighborhood level. Base “N” • First LADCO inventory that will use CONCEPT for all sectors. • Remaining sectors are those most similar to existing models SMOKE/EMS. (Point,Area). • SIP timing requires that all inventory science and model development done by June 1st 2010 Beyond RPO’s • ERTAC, Group of eastern states with a goal of improving inventories for regional analysis. • Work will be done by states/regional groups Marine and Rail Inventories Area Source Comparability Agricultural NH3 2005 Modeling Inventory EGU temporalization methods from CEM Canadian emissions (2005/2008) Evaluation of IPM Primary OC from onroad Wildfires/Prescribed burns Temporal modeling profiles. The People That Did the Work • Biogenics – Jim Wilkinson- Alpine Geophysics – Kirk Baker – LADCO • Onroad – Allison Pollack et al Environ • Google Earth – Jim Wilkinson – Alpine Geophysics • Ammonia Model – Zion Wang – UC Riverside – Ruhong Zhang – UC Davis Model This!!