Mapping the Rural-Urban Interface: A New Frontier in Rural-Urban Research Presented at the Annual Conference: National Rural Research Network Canada Rural Revitalization Foundation Creating Rural.
Download ReportTranscript Mapping the Rural-Urban Interface: A New Frontier in Rural-Urban Research Presented at the Annual Conference: National Rural Research Network Canada Rural Revitalization Foundation Creating Rural.
Mapping the Rural-Urban Interface: A New Frontier in Rural-Urban Research Presented at the Annual Conference: National Rural Research Network Canada Rural Revitalization Foundation Creating Rural Opportunities Through Research Gatineau, Québec October 26, 2006 Mark Partridge Swank Professor in Rural-Urban Policy Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy The Ohio State University Rose Olfert University of Saskatchewan Outline: Why are we here? 1. Rural Canada Myths—the 1950s Rural Canada does not reflect the diversity of Rural Canada • • • Government policies are based on the myth Rural-Urban interdependence Should rural communities compete or cooperate? • Should Lanark Highlands or Papineau compete with Ottawa? • Who will win that one? 2. Successful cooperation builds strength • • Leverage growth for entire regions Build supporting institutions 3. Research questions to be answered • This part of the presentation is called “Rose saves the day” Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy Rural Myths: Back to the Future The 1950s Rural Economy • The myth of rural Canada is that it is solely a natural resource based economy – Pick up the Toronto Star or Globe and Mail and this will likely be the story – Federal and provincial policy is aimed at making this imaginary place “healthy” with imperfect policies mostly aimed at supporting resource based sectors – Though resources still dominate some areas, most of Rural Canada has diversified Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy % Employment in Agriculture 35 1931 % of Total Employment 30 25 1931 20 15 10 1971 5 1971 2004 2004 0 Ontario Canada Source: 1931 Census, 1971 Census, Statistics Canada. 1931, 1971 Industries classified by SIC. codes. 2004 Industries classified by NAICS codes. % Employment in Other Primary Industries 1931 % of Total Employment 4 3 1971 1931 2 2004 1971 1 2004 0 Ontario Canada Source: 1931 Census, 1971 Census, Statistics Canada. 1931, 1971 Industries classified by SIC. codes. 2004 Industries classified by NAICS codes. % Employment in Manufacturing 1971 25 1971 % of Total Employment 20 2004 1931 2004 15 1931 10 5 0 Ontario Canada Source: 1931 Census, 1971 Census, Statistics Canada. 1931, 1971 Industries classified by SIC. codes. 2004 Industries classified by NAICS codes. % Employ. in Rural & Small Town Ontario, 2004 20 % M anufacturing 18 16 % Total Employment 14 12 10 8 6 % Agriculture 4 2 % Other Primary 0 Source: Statistics Canada. 2004 Industries classif ied by NAICS codes. % Employment in Quebec Non-CMA and Non-CA Areas, 2004 26 24 % Manufacturing 22 % Total Employment 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 % Agriculture 4 % Other Primary 2 0 % Agriculture Source: Statistics Canada. 2004 Industries classified by NAICS codes. % Other Primary % Manufacturing Even Agri-food sector “small” • Primary agriculture (plus services incidental) accounts for about 6% of employment in predominantly rural regions • Processing, input supply, grain storage is another 1.5%; for a total of 7.5% • Source: Statistics Canada, Ray Bollman Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy Farm HH’s rely on other sources • 1.6% of Canada’s rural population lives on a Census farm > $250,000 gross sales • source: Statistics Canada, Ray Bollman • Farm family households (farm operating revenues >$10,000) earn ¾ of their income off-farm, 2000 • Source: Statistics Canada—cat. No. 21-019-XIE • Even among farm households where farm income was the major source of income, only about 1/2 of income was from farm sources • Source: Canada Customs and Revenue Agency, Income Statistics, Annual, Ray Bollman, Statistics Canada. Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy For those who like statistics • Industry structure matters: Rural Canada avg: Every additional 1% share of “Other Primary Emp.” in 1991 was associated with 0.35% LESS population growth in 1990s Source Statistics Canada & Partridge, M.D.; R. Bollman; M.R. Olfert; and A. Alasia. 2005. “Riding the Wave of Urban Growth in the Countryside: Spread, Backwash, or Stagnation.” University of Saskatchewan, Canada Rural Economy Research Lab Working Paper. Available at www.crerl.usask.ca. [forthcoming Land Economics] Lessons! • The 1950s Rural Canada no longer exists • Farm/food policy is sub-optimal when linked to rural revitalization • Agriculture policy should focus on food supply and safety • Agriculture is too important for Canada’s international competitiveness to be diverted to local econ dev • Agriculture’s urban influence is under-rated • Rural revitalization is far more complex than farm policy • Need to de-couple rural and farm/food policy! Measuring Success in Rural Canada • Success is long-run population growth – Combines good economy & quality of life • People vote with their feet • Not subjective (not Government $ budget surplus) • Looking E-W across Canada is simplistic • Look North-South to see real patterns – Great Plains population loss – Alberta and BC are in the Rocky Mountain West Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy Basic Patterns • Canada’s unique pattern: • Cities are Canada’s engine of growth • Not as true in the U.S. • Canada’s rural development • Critical mass & threshold effects • Growth poles • Not everyone in small communities/neighbourhoods commute in their growth cluster, enough to stabilize their population and build critical mass • This Canadian pattern underlies why rural communities should work together Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy Communities should band together • Large cities have the most growth spillovers • Metro areas >500,000 population • Canada’s pop. growth also is centered near urban areas of at least 10,000 people (CAs) • Evidence: growth does not end at city border! • Growth spreads out for hundreds of kms, though the growth effects attenuate with distance • Both rural and urban participate in growth • Best hope for much of rural Canada Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy Eastern Canada’s Engines of Growth An Engine of Growth is defined as a metropolitan area with at least 500,000 population. Halifax is one “contender” Engine of Growth. Western Canada’s Engines of Growth An Engine of Growth is defined as a metropolitan area with at least 500,000 population. Saskatoon is one “contender” Engine of Growth. 1996-2001 Population Growth and Urban Centres in the Prairie Provinces Yellow highlighted areas are census agglomeration areas (10,000+) or census metropolitan areas (100,000+). Population Growth in Atlantic Canada Population Growth in Central Canada Population Growth in the West Moral • Rural communities can link to attain critical mass – Rural growth clusters that attain critical mass for econ development and gov’t services • Lesson: not just money, but planning and community collaboration is the key feature • Rose Olfert will provide better evidence of rural-urban interdependence Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy How can we cooperate? • This can be a formal consolidation of gov’ts – Need a consensus! But from 2006 AUMA comments, • Borders can exclude people or include people • Why rely on borders drawn for the needs of the early 20th Century • Should reflect broad regional needs of “neighbours” • • • • • • Transport people/access to urban services and amenities Environment/Land use Economic development Education/health Quality of life initiatives Increased political clout for common interests Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy • Need to build regional identity – Despite the interdependence of communities, too many towns think as if they are an island • Nongovernmental approaches – Chambers of Commerce, service organizations • Overlay regional govt on top of municipalities – Regional economic development authorities – Transportation—critical to build regional clusters Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy Avoid Bad Planning Regional transport good, but avoid U.S. “roads at all costs” • Avoid sprawl and donut development • Example Columbus, OH (like many U.S. cities) • Weak cooperation and planning led to unintended consequences even with “great” roads Employment and Income Pre-1964 Outerbelt Construction—Columbus, OH Jobs by Traffic Analysis Zone Employment and Income 2000 Outerbelt Construction—Columbus, OH Jobs by Traffic Analysis Zone Communities/Regions need tools • • • • Provinces should devolve some authority Greater ability to zone near their boundary More tax tools including at the regional level Examples – Regional fuel/use taxes for transportation – Sales taxes (say 1% regional levy) Examples of Cooperation • Ft. McMurray/Wood Buffalo • N. Alberta and N. Sask for Labour force • Outlook, SK is a good example of 1st Nations participating in a regional plan • 1 hour away, Saskatoon reflects an opportunity • Gander, NFLD and surrounding villages Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy • NW Ohio: 3 counties recently supported Van Wert County’s effort to land a Honda plant • The Darby River Accord brought together 10 OH municipalities to protect an environmental treasure Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy Alberta Example of Growth Poles • Calgary and Edmonton lift the entire province • Not just the large cities, all of Alberta • Not Zero Sum! • An urban area as small as 10-15,000 can serve as a growth pole for rural communities • Grande Prairie is important far outside of its borders • But governance structure needs to ensure everyone benefits and everyone participates Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy What is needed for success? • Cooperate: check petty jealousies at the door • Communities need to find common interests • Define region: commuting sheds is good start • Maybe better to think of towns as “neighbourhoods” rather than municipalities in a living web of connected regional neighbourhoods. (Mayor Ayling of Grande Prairie) • Communities need to build trust – Realize that everyone benefits, though not necessarily equally – Build supporting infrastructure: • Soft: governance and grassroots “buy-in” • Hard: such as roads Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy Summary • Rural Canada myth of returning to the 1950s must be discarded • Policy needs to re-focus on what can be attained rather than perpetuating a myth • Growth in much of rural Canada is quite dependent on linking to urban areas • Exceptions mostly include tourist and retirement destinations and some “resource” communities • Rose, your turn……. Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy Defining the Rural-Urban Linkages • Defining rural-urban linkages key to making infrastructure decisions AND infrastructure decisions influence rural-urban interdependence • Businesses locating in a rural setting to serve the urban mkt., benefit from lower land prices while having access to urban labour markets (infrastructure linkages) – – – – – – Clients driving out Moving product into urban areas Accessing higher order urban services Labour commuting urban to rural Forward and backward linked industries, rural and urban Air travel, globally Defining the Linkages (cont’d) • Households choosing rural locations – Access to urban amenities, upscale shopping, higher order services, entertainment and recreation – Access to urban employment – Private and public infrastructure required in growing nearby rural communities • Urban households linked to rural areas – Recreation, rural amenities – Employment The Research • Infrastructure Canada funding, SSHRC peerreviewed competition last fall • PI Mark Partridge, Rose Olfert and community leaders • Strong partnerships with CRRF and FCM • Additional partners Saskatoon City Planner, other cities tbd (FCM) – Case Studies • Transportation expert Mapping the Rural-Urban Interface: Partnerships for Sustainable Infrastructure Development • Commuting sheds surrounding all Canadian Census Agglomerations (CAs) and Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) – Link between the urban core and its periphery – Regions for planning the efficient provision of infrastructure for mutual benefit – Statistical analysis of the effect of urban growth on rural and exurban areas, policy implications – Detail the nature of the decay in commuting intensity, governance implications Research Project (continued) • City and regional planners provide regional planning implications of statistical results, for various city sizes • Implications for transportation network--case studies, consider alternative growth scenarios for the urban and rural components, consider governance, physical and environmental constraints – Case studies are important: “one size doesn’t fit all!” – Our research suggests very different rural-urban interdependence Ontario-west vs Quebec-east. • Source: Ali, K., Olfert, R. and Partridge, M. “Can Geographically Weighted Regressions Improve Regional Analysis and Policymaking?” 2006. www.crerl.usask/research. Research Project (continued) • Conventional training for students, as well as the opportunity for students to gain practical experience working with planners and transportation specialists • Ongoing input from CRRF and FCM partners—significant and on-going in-kind and other support Research project (cont’d) • Work is underway with a grad student, post doc and research associate engaged • Recruiting additional cities for case studies • Data purchase has been purchased— national POR/POW data for 2,800 CCS, 1981, 1991, 1996, 2001—large and expensive data set • Importance of POW data for economic analysis—2006? Research project (cont’d) • Maps show the details of the commuting sheds • Unanswered questions wrt overlapping commuting sheds, especially in S. Ontario • Statistical analysis in progress—early results within the year • Case studies very important, and will be tailored to generalize results for other cities across the heterogeneous regions Importance of Rural-Urban Mapping • Rural-urban divide mentality counter-productive in terms of practical development efforts, including infrastructure planning • Rural-urban areas’ common interests can be empirically established—a mutual benefit model will be superior • Rural-urban interface research essential to progress towards regional governance/co-operation models Thank you Presentation will be posted at: The Ohio State University, AED Economics, Swank Program website: http://aede.osu.edu/programs/Swank/ The University of Saskatchewan, CRERL website : http://www.crerl.usask.ca (under presentations)