World Bank Education Strategy 2020

Consultations

How will the world look in 2020?

What will be the demands on education and education systems?

Population in Low Income Countries 2010

75+ 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 120000 70000 Female 20000 30000 80000 Male

Population Projections in Low Income Countries 2020

75+ 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 120000 70000 Female 20000 30000 80000 Male

Different population profiles across countries…with faster growth in low-income countries Population in Middle Income Countries 2010

75+ 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 250000 150000 50000 50000 150000 Female Male 250000 75+ 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 250000

Population Projections in Middle Income Countries 2020

150000 Female 50000 50000 150000 Male 250000

The rise of new economic stars

Trillions of 1995 16 international $ 14 Real GDP (PPP): Projections 2004-2015 (Using 1991-2003 Average Growth Rates) India Canada Italy Russian Federation China France Japan United Kingdom Brazil Germany Mexico United States 12 China United States 10 8 4 6 Japan Canada Germany 2 0 2003 2005 2007 Italy Brazil United Kingdom France Mexico Russian Federation India 2009 2011 2013

Rodriguez, 2008

2015

Economic growth created space for investment 2002 -2007: Developing Countries’ strongest growth in decades IMF projections as cited in Rodgers, 2008

Short-term growth projections

World Developing countries 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011

Real GDP -2.2

Real GDP (PPP) -1.0

2.7

3.5

3.2

4.0

1.2

1.8

5.2

5.5

5.8

6.0

• • Main drag on global growth comes from high-income countries, with implications for external aid resources Robust prospects for developing countries for recovery in 2010

Poverty has declined but less so in Africa Percentage of population living at less than $2/day East Asia & Pacific China Europe and Central Asia

1990

79.8

84.6

6.9

2005

38.7

36.3

8.9

2015

19.4

16.0

5.0

2020

14.3

12.0

4.1

Latin America & Caribbean 19.7

16.6

11.1

9.7

Middle East & North Africa South Asia India Sub-Saharan Africa 19.7

82.7

82.6

76.2

16.9

73.9

75.6

73.0

8.3

57.0

58.0

59.6

6.6

51.0

51.9

55.4

Greater pressure on post-primary education    Increase in net enrollment rates in primary education Growing demand for secondary and tertiary education More children and youth in school also from disadvantaged groups …but   Enrollment gaps between rich and poor remain high Large differences within regions in education outcomes – so no one size fits all, in terms of education regional strategies

What else has changed since 2000?

    Geopolitics and serious security concerns Information and Communication Technology Partnerships and Paris & Accra declarations Changes within the World Bank

ECD

Schooling-Learning Cycle

Formal schooling

Primary level

Training

Secondary level Tertiary level Out-of-school youth Nutrition, health care, parental training, ECE Children & youth in school  Skills training  % learning goals achieved

Beyond enrollment: Learning 1

Proportion of 15-19 year olds who have completed at least each grade Proportion of 15-19 year olds who can read a simple sentence, by highest grade completed

1 0.8

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.4

0.2

0.2

11 0 0 1 2 3 Dominican Rep. 2002 Mali 2001 Philippines 2003 4 5 6 Kenya 2003 Nepal 2001 7 8 0 0 1 2 3 Dominican Rep. 2002 Mali 2001 Philippines 2003 4 5 6 Kenya 2003 Nepal 2001 7 8

New evidence: the contribution of learning to growth

New evidence on the contribution of learning (as opposed to attainment) to economic growth Hanushek & Woessmann 2007

World Bank’s priorities for education for 2020  Invest in strengthening education systems so that they can    Secure educational opportunity for all Assure education quality Guide and govern effectively and efficiently  Increase global knowledge and understanding of education challenges and policy through   Research Innovation and learning  Policy debate

Operating principles     Whole-sector approach Global and multisectoral perspective: reconnect education to development agenda Develop effective partnerships Measure our results & impact   Core indicators Impact evaluations

Evidence is not the only influence on policymaking

evidence, expertise & experience national capacity resources

EDUCATION

national lobby & pressure groups political pragmatics

POLICY

international pressure values, tradition & culture

Modified from P. Davies

Previous education strategies 2000  Quality  Education for All  Priorities:  Basic education (poor, girls)  Early interventions (ECD, school health)  Innovative delivery  Systemic reform Update 2005     Education for All for the knowledge economy for cohesive societies Priorities:  Education in a countrywide perspective  Sector-wide approach  Results orientation

Impact will not be immediate

 Policies & programs to improve cognitive skills through schools take time to implement  Assume that it will take 20 years to implement reform  Impact of improved skills not realized until students with those skills join the labor force  Economy will respond as new technologies using higher skills are adopted and implemented

Discussion questions 1.

2.

4.

How can the World Bank best support efficient, equitable and durable educational progress? In Low Income Countries? In Fragile and Conflict-afflicted States? In Middle Income Countries?

How can the World Bank effectively support improvements in the quality of learning and acquisition of skills?

How can the Bank work better with partners?

Website: www.worldbank.org/educationstrategy2020 Email: [email protected]

Additional slides following

Education lending portfolio: Active portfolio fy09:$8.8 billion

4 000 3 500 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 IDA Total IBRD FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10* * FY10 projection as of Nov. 12, 2009.

Focus of fy09 education operations

    Almost half supports poorest countries through IDA funds     49% supports basic education 51% supports post-basic education 75% includes teacher development 50% includes learning assessments 44% of total lending to education comes from multi sector operations 20 projects co-financed by bilateral &multilateral agencies,  total funding of $1.2 billion More than100 knowledge products on education

Timetable for the strategy

CODE Review 27 th January OVP Review June CODE Review August Board October Prepare CN, using comments staff, OVPs and HD Council Prepare background notes Prepare draft strategy Prepare annex es Prepare full strategy Revise full strategy Prepare implemen tation plans Staff consultation (general directions) Multi-stakeholder internal & external consultation (specifics of strategy) Internal & external consultation on draft strategy (content & implementation) Final approval Disseminate strategy Dec 2009 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2011

Economic crisis is likely to reduce donor aid 0 5 10 15 20 Years after onset of crisis 25 30 Note: circles, triangles, and diamonds represent signficance level at 10%, 5%, and 1% respectively.

Dang, Rogers & Knack, 2009

Progress towards education MDGs: Net enrolment rate in primary education

100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 83,0 82,5 83,5 85,7 86,2 86,5 86,9 WLD 2001 EAP 2002 ECA 2003 2004 LAC 2005 MNA 2006 SAS

Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics in EdStats, July 2009

2007 SSA

Growing demand for tertiary education: Gross enrolment rate in tertiary education

60 50 40 30

24,0

20

18,7

10

8,7 8,6 10,2

0 EAP 1985 ECA 1990 LAC 1995 MNA 2000 SAS 2005

Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics in EdStats, August 2009 Note: No data available for LAC 1985 or SAS in 2007.

SSA

25,5

2007 WLD

Enrolment gaps between rich and poor remain high

Large differences between countries in the same region

Primary Completion Rates: Sub-Saharan Africa Latest year Guinea-Bissau Chad Central African Republic Rwanda Burkina Faso Burundi Niger Cote d'Ivoire Ethiopia Eritrea Sudan Senegal Congo, Dem. Rep.

Mali Uganda Liberia Malawi Cameroon Mauritania Madagascar Guinea Benin Congo, Rep.

Nigeria Swaziland Sao Tome and Principe Ghana Lesotho Sierra Leone Zimbabwe Zambia Kenya 0 Source: EdStats 20 40 60 80 100

Changes Create Challenges

 Increased economic growth gave countries space for education investment  Economic crisis is likely to reduce donor aid

1990 2005 Percentage of the population living on less than $1.25/day East Asia & Pacific 54.7

16.8

15.9

China Europe and Central Asia 60.2

2.0

Latin America & Caribbean 11.3

3.7

8.2

Middle East & North Africa 4.3

3.6

South Asia India Sub-Saharan Africa World 51.7

51.3

57.6

41.7

40.3

41.6

50.9

25.2

Percentage of the population living on less than $2.00/day East Asia & Pacific 79.8

38.7

36.3

China Europe and Central Asia 84.6

6.9

Latin America & Caribbean 19.7

Middle East & North Africa 19.7

8.9

16.6

16.9

South Asia India Sub-Saharan Africa World 82.7

82.6

76.2

63.2

73.9

75.6

73.0

47.0

Number of people living on less than $1.25/day 2015 5.9

5.1

1.7

5.0

1.8

22.8

23.6

38.0

15.0

19.4

16.0

5.0

11.1

8.3

57.0

58.0

59.6

33.7

14.3

12.0

4.1

9.7

6.6

51.0

51.9

55.4

29.8

2020 4.0

4.0

1.2

4.3

1.5

19.4

20.3

32.8

12.8