Transcript UNECE/Eurostat Seminar on Migration statistics, Geneva, 21-23 March 2005 How Do the CIS Countries Estimate Migrants Stock (Do They)? Olga Chudinovskikh Moscow State University.

UNECE/Eurostat Seminar on Migration statistics, Geneva, 21-23 March 2005
How Do the CIS Countries
Estimate Migrants Stock (Do
They)?
Olga Chudinovskikh
Moscow State University
Outlines





UN approach to migrant stock estimation in
the CIS countries: do the UN definitions
always guarantee a correct result?
Evolution in tradition of migrants’
identification in RF and USSR
What data valid for migrants stock estimation
do the national censuses (Round 2000) in the
CIS countries present?
Data sources (related to migrants stock) in the
Russian Federation
Conclusions
UN DESA Population Division: Trends
In Total Migrant Stock: The 2003
Revision

The United States is the largest recipient of
international migrants, with 35 migrants in
2000. It is followed by the Russian Federation
(13 million), Germany (7 million), Ukraine,
France and India.
Estimations for the successor states
were derived by taking account of


migration flows that occurred
among them in 1990-2000, and by
considering the
number of persons enumerated in
RF, but born in other Republics of
the former USSR according to 1989
census of the USSR.”
(Source:
Keiko Osaki. The International Migrant Stock a
Global View. Paper presented at the IOM seminar
“Workshop on Approaches to Data Collection and Data
Management” Geneva, - 9 September 2003, IOM website).
Problematic issue (1):
Combination of criteria used for different
periods

1990- 2000 (annual statistics data)•
crossing the border,
•
for residence
•
(neither citizenship, nor place of birth)

Before 1990 –(census data) place of birth
(out of the republic)
Problematic issue (2):

Before the collapse of the USSR it was
migration of
•
nationals of the same state
•
born in the same state (major part of
cases)
Problematic issue (3)
•
Rules of migrants registration and
statistical observation were changed in
1996 > underestimation of foreign
migrants since 1996
•
Over- and underestimation of stock
(International) migrant definition in the
USSR and the RF statistics and scienсe
Before 1990- main problems: to decrease migration from ruarl areas and to
stimulate migration to the regions of rapid industrial development. No
experience of international migration estimation (no special methodology, no
special definitions)
Demographic encyclopedia published in 1985 defined only “a migrant” as “a person
who migrates, i.e.
 crosses the administrative borders of territories and
 changes place of residence for more or less long period”.
These criteria were used for statistical observation both of internal and international
migrants in the USSR and Russia , neither citizenship, nor place of birth criterion
is used.
Since 2002 data on citizenship of migrants (annual flows)are published in satistics
yearbooks.
1992-1993 – refugees and forced migrants definitions (in special laws),
2002 – foreign citizens and stateless persons definition (in a special law)
No concrete definiton of an international migrant
(Inertia or heritage of the past)
UN estimation of migrant stock in selected countries.
Source: UNPopulation Division, DESA,International migration 2002
(United Nations Publication, Sales No. E.03.XIII.3).
Migrant stock
Total
Population
(thousands)
Belarus
Russian
Federation
Ukraine
Number
(thousands)
Per cent of
population
10 187
1 284
12,6
145 491
13 259
9,1
49 568
6 947
14,0
Census :
the main source of data for migrants stock
estimation.
Questions related to migration in the CIS Censuses
(Round 2000) programmes
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





Place of birth
Citizenship
Had lived in the place of residence since birth / not since birth
If not – since what year –
Previous place of residence (Except RF )
In some countries- place of residence at the census moment (Moldova), - If was
temporary absent – (period of absence ) (Azerbaijan ),
Refugees or deported (Ukraine, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan)
+ Languages, ethnicity
In the RF census program place of previous residence was mentioned only by those who arrived
in 1989-2002 and related to the date of the previous census: Where lived in 1989
(Region, Rural or Urban area)
Table 1. Basic data on foreigners and foreign born population
in selected CIS countries. Source: National censuses data (Round 2000)
(Absloute- thousands )
Abs.
Armenia
%
Abs.
Ukraine
%
Abs.
Belarus
%
Abs.
Kazakhstan
%
Abs.
Russian Federation
%
Born out
of
the rep.
Citizens of
the other
countries
and
stateless
pers.
No
answer
on
citizen
ship
Population
Born in the
republic
3213,0
2927,3
285,7
3185,5
27,5
100%
91,1%
8,9%
99,1%
0,9%
48240,9
43084,7
5156,2
47950,0
169,1
100%
89,3%
10,7%
99,4%
0,4%
10045,2
8886,4
1158,8
9934,5
107,8
2,9
100%
88,5%
11,5%
98,9%
1,1%
0,0%
14953,1
12839,8
2113,2
14867,9
85,2
0,0
100%
85,9%
14,1%
99,4%
0,6%
142442,4
1025,4
1269,0
98,1%
1,0%
0,9%
145166,7
100%
Nationals
Data are being processed
0,0
0,0
Period of residence criteria (arguments pro):
Table 2. Distribution of life-time migrants (born and arrived
from abroad) by period of Residence in selected CIS countries
Source: National censuses data (Round 2000)
Period of residence (years)
5 and <
Ukraine
After the
collapse of
the USSR
total
Before the
collapse of
the USSR
Abs.
%
Belarus
6 -- 9
10 and
more
351123
423451
4377354
5.156.240
778.886
4.377.354
6,8%
8,2%
84,9%
100%
15%
85%
198883
199738
864402
1.263.023
398.621
864.402
15,7%
15,8%
68,4%
100,0%
32%
68%
Abs.
%
Chart 1. Distribution of life–time migrants born out
of the republic by period of residence in selected
CUS countries (source-see table 2)
Ethnicity: if it can be a criterion for
migrants stock identification?
One must be very careful using this criterion
 RF population – 190 ethnic groups,
 Ukraine, Belarus population - more
than 130 ethnic groups
The criterion of ethnicity partially can be applied to
some categories of migrants to monitor their presence
in the country.
Table 3. Percentage and dynamics of titular population in
selected CIS countries.
(Source - National censuses (Round 2000) data, Statistics yearbook “CIS
countries in 2002”)
Dynamics of titular
population since the % of non% of titular last
USSR
census titular
population
(1989)
population
Azerbaijan
90,6%
1,24
9,4%
Armenia
99,1%
0,98
0,9%
Belarus
81,2%
1,03
18,8%
Kazakhstan
53,4%
1,23
46,6%
Kyrgyzstan
64,9%
1,40
35,1%
Russuans 1,12 mln, 1,4 mln did not specify ethnicity
79,8%
0,97
20,2%
Ukraine
77,8%
1,003
22,2%
Russia-
Chart 2. Foreigners, foreign born and non-titular
population in selected CIS countries- what criteria is
the best?
0%
Armenia
Belarus
Kazakhstan
Ukraine
5%
0,9%
0,9%
1,1%
0,6%
0,4%
15%
10%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
8,9%
11,5%
18,8%
46,6%
14,1%
10,7%
Non-titular population
22,2%
Foreign born
Foreigners
The Russian Federation sources of data on
international migration : which one to
choose for migrants stock estimation?
Table 4. Main migration data systems in Russia
Authority
2-11- parts of Central data bank of foreigners (in future)
Quality of data and
methodology
Availability
1
Current statistics of migrants (based on
registration procedure) – both foreign and
internal flows
Ministry of home
affairs/ Federal
statistics service
Unsatisfactory,
considerable
underestimation
Available
2
Data on permits on arrival for residence
(foreigners) and departure for residence (Russian
citizens)
Ministry of home affairs
Moderate. Not processed
since 2002.
Was partially
available
up to 2002
3
Data on refugees and asylum seekers
Ministry of home affairs
(Federal migration
service- FMS)
Satisfactory
Available
4
Data on work permits for foreign employees and
Russian citizens l employed abroad via
Russian employment agencies
Ministry of home affairs
(FMS)
Unsatisfactory,
considerable
underestimation
Available
5
Data on residence permits and permissions for
temporary residence
Ministry of home affairs
(FMS)
No information on
methodology
Not available
6
Migration cards statistics
Ministry of home affairs
(FMS)
No information on
methodology
Not available
7
Border statistics
Federal security service
(Federal Border Service)
No information on
methodology
Partially
available
Data on foreign students
Ministry of science and
education
Satisfactory
Available
9
Visas and invitations statistics
Ministry of foreign
affairs
No information on
methodology
Not available
10
Ministry of Taxes data
Ministry of Taxes
No information on
methodology
Not available
11
Population Census
Federal statistics service
Satisfactory
Available
8
Categories of foreigners covered by RF Census2002 program
Full census program (questionnaire) covered:
1.
Foreign citizens and stateless persons – residents of Russian
Federation
2.
Persons officially employed in RF (in Russian and
foreign organizations and enterprises) and students - if
intended to stay in Russia for more that 1 year
3.
Asylum seekers
Short census program covered:
1.
Foreign residents who stayed in Russia temporarily and
intended to stay here for less than 1 year
2.
Tourists, patients in hospitals, private guests, transit migrants
Main results – 1 mln – citizens of foreign countries, 1,3 mlndid not identify citizenship, 40 thous. – have double
citizenship.
Official annual statictics of migration.
Undrestimation : since 1996 considerable part of migrants (both
internal and international) are excluded from statistical
observation

Since 1996 international (and internal) migrants
are registered in the police by
Place of residence
Place of temporary stay
(no time limits)
Included into statistical observation
Since 2002 international migrants should be
excluded from statistical observation
(data collected only in administrative sources, not available)

2000. X. - foreigners need to get residence permit to be registered
(many migrants from abroad are excluded from observation),

2002- New Law on foreigners’ status – foreigners should not be observed
by current statistics (theoretically)- (additional criterion – citizenship).

Since 2002 official annual statistics (theoretically) must observe only
the RF nationals
Table 5. Nationals and foreigners in international
migration flows: RF annual official statistics of
migration
RF Nationals
With double
citizenship
Foreigners
Including:
CIS
and
Baltic
countri
es
Total
Stateless
Other foreign
countries
In-migration
2002
184612
166325
23847
15311
13941
1370
2976
2003
129144
108767
19060
17257
16511
746
3120
Out-migration
2002
106685
100732
5917
4626
3883
743
1327
2003
94018
89971
4863
2893
2651
242
1154
Net-migration
2002
77927
65593
17930
10685
10058
627
1649
2003
35126
18796
14197
14364
13860
504
1966
Administrative (police) sources.
Main definitions of foreigner’s status in Russia (some of them
define categories of migrants to be included into migrants stock).
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Temporary stay : term of stay - by visa expiry term , or <90
days. Not more than 12 months)
Temporary resident (<3 years, annual re-registration)
Permanent resident ( <5 years, re-registration, number of reregistrations is unlimited)
Military status (5 year contract)
Special status (diplomats)
Foreign employee
Refugee
According to the Law foreign citizen must be registered in
police during three days after his/her arrival. Ukraine citizens – 90 days .
Details and variables: information collected about applicant for residence
permit
Name, sex, date of birth, citizenship, temporary address, marital status, family members having residence permit,
place of job, study, source and type of income,, «criminal» background or administrative rules violation experience,
moves out from Russia , where, purpose of trip.
Work permits statistics: only legal workers >
underestimation of irregular
migrants, 2003 - 378.000 work permits, stock of irregular
migrants - appr. 2 - 5 mln
Basic problems (besides underestimation of
flows):
 Some categories of foreign citizens are not
included into estimation (Byelorussians)
 Primary work permits and prolonged permits
are not estimated separately
 Duration of contract is not estimated
Table 6. The RF Statistics of forced migrants and
asylum seekers :main figures.
2002
including:
Forced
migrants
total
20504
Total
forced
resettlers
20453
Accumulated figures of registered
migrants by 1 January 2004 since
beginning of registration
2003
including:
refug
ees
Forced
migra
nts
total
51
4726
including
forced
resettler
s
refug
ees
Forced
migrant
s total
4668
58
360.796
forced resettlers (since
1 July 1992)
refugees
(since 20
March
1993)
352.071
8725

Previous place of residence (accumulated and registered during the year under
review)
New place of residence (RF regions)
Number of applications for refugee status
Number of refugees by place of origin and place of destination
Age and sex composition
Level of education
Ethnicity

Etc.






Table 7. Border statistics (available data) :
Foreign citizens’ purposes of trip and countries of origin/
destination
Country of
origin /
(destination)
Total (entries /
(departures)
2002
Purpose of trip (entries)
Service
Tourism
Private
Residence
Transit
Assistant
personnel
524335
1493249
23308711
429592
838786
17056693
Total
12338
3014159
3105563
15159067
1246973
578249
13951382
49667
15631
95602
370
23721
12501
197492
119710
36677
2499082
5425
114599
180500
2955993
Citizens of :
CIS and Baltic
countries:
Byelorussia
Kazakhstan, etc.
11711
Other countries:
….
Foreign citizens registration data bank
- will it be a register of foreign population?
Planned to be created by January 2006, responsible authority – Federal Migration
service
Stage 1 (Ministry of home affairs data)
1.
Migration cards information on arrivals and departures of foreigners
2.
Data on refugees and asylum seekers
3.
Labour migrants data (work permits data)
Stage 2 (Ministry of home affairs data)
4.
Residence permits, temporary residence permits and stay permits
5.
Information on crimes committed against foreigners and by foreigners
Stage 3 (other ministries data)
6.
Federal border service data
7.
Visas and invitations statistics
8.
Customs Committee data
9.
Ministry of taxes data
10.
Other ministries and authorities data on foreigners
Stage 4
Information exchange and distribution (rules are not defined)
Surveys:
The recent (and, perhaps, the best one)
IOM survey: Irregular migrants in Russian Federation (Moscow
Migration Research Program 2002 )
Questionnaire – more than100 questions
 3034 respondents (including migrants from the CIS countries,
Afghanistan, China and Vietnam, etc.) , 30% had work permit,
50% had police registration
 9 regions (including Moscow, St.Petersburg and Far East
region)
 Estimated ratio of irregular migrants in regional population
from 0.5% to 10%. Total estimated stock of irregular
migrants - 5 mln. Pedriod of stay?
 90% of irregular migrants stock – from the CIS countries
 Estimated migrants stock of Chinese - 400.000
Why data on migrants stock are considered
to be important?
They are supposed to create a background for the estimation of
economic, political and cultural consequences of foreign
migrants’ presence in the country, their interaction with local
population, etc.
There is a viewpoint that migrant stock data are necessary to
“monitor the size and composition of population with foreign
origin having a long-term view on their integration”
(Source: Enrico Bisogno, Presentation “International migration: practices of 2000 Round and issues for
2010”. UNFPA-UNECE-NIDI Training Programme on International Migration 24-28 January 2005).
Migrants who moved before the collapse of the
USSR (and partially – after) needed
adaptation rather than integration:
мajority of them
 spoke the same language,
 had common cultural roots,
 were born in the same country and
 were nationals of the same state
Our opinion upon methodology used for migrants
stock estimation in the RF(and other CIS countries)
Positive:
without similar or closer
approaches and methodologies of migrant
stocks and flows estimation international data
comparison becomes problematic.
 Not so positive: however, in some cases
methodology must be more flexible to avoid
an oversimplification of the task, especially if
the situation is not simple and if we deal with a
heterogeneous object.

Conclusions

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No concrete or uniform definition of long-term international migrant in the CIS
countries
Prevalence of citizenship criterion
Significance of period of residence criterion (the RF viewpoint)
RF is more likely to exclude migrants who moved before the collapse of the USSR
from the stock, in the other CIS countries situation is not clear.
Ethnicity can not be (the main) criterion for migrant identification in the CIS
countries
Basic source of data for migrants stock estimation – Census
Data from the other sources (RF case) either not available or not reliable. In RF the main source of annual data - current statistics on international migration is not
reliable for migrant stock estimation.
Practical use of migrant stock estimation must be discussed.
Historical background of population should be taken into account.