Transcript Climate Change: AND NOW FOR THE GOOD NEWS! We CAN reduce the CO2 and other greenhouse gases in our atmosphere to safer levels.

Climate Change:
AND NOW FOR
THE GOOD NEWS!
We CAN reduce the CO2 and other
greenhouse gases in our atmosphere
to safer levels
The solutions !
November
2009
That’s ALL
the WORLD’s
energy
November
2009
The ‘WWS’
solution:
Wind
Water
Solar
NOT
including:
CCS,
Nuclear,
Other
‘exotic’
sources
HUGE RESOURCES
AVAILABLE
AVAILABLE
TECHNOLOGY
COST EFFECTIVE
POLITICS
BIGGEST
OBSTACLE
9%
51%
Wind
Wave
40%
Solar Roof PV
Concentrated
PV Power
NEEDED
11.5 TW
READILY
AVAILABLE
580 TW
Tidal
Geothermal
Hydro
85%
NB: Australian
coal is cheaper
than US power.
The REAL
problem!
Vested interests and
confusion/apathy among
‘ordinary people’
– leading to lack of
political will.
Australian Solutions!
 The big picture:
 Solar and Wind
 supplemented by
 Hydro
 Geothermal
 Ocean (tidal and wave)
 and perhaps ?
 Gas
 Nuclear (?)
 Coal with CCS (??)
Australian Solutions - solar!
Australian Solutions - solar!
 The yellow
square is
about 125 km
square
 Ample for ALL
of Australia’s
energy.
(At only 10%
collection
efficiency)
[A city uses around
1 PJ per day]
35 PJ per day (=400 GW)
That is about 250 Hazelwoods!
Australian Solutions - wind!
 “A network of land-based 2.5 MW turbines …
operating at as little as 20% of their rated
capacity could supply over 40 times current
worldwide consumption of electricity”
Global potential for wind-generated electricity Lua, McElroy, Kiviluomac, Harvard & Finland, April09
Australia’s
86 PWh =
310,000 PJ/yr
Annual
Global potential for wind-generated electricity:
Xi Lua, Michael B. McElroya, and Juha Kiviluomac
(or 850 per day.
- Current total
energy use
is 16 PJ/day)
The Solutions! – World wind power
Australia
2008
approx
1,500 MW
(14th place)
NB: 2.862 means 2,862
Australian Solutions!
 Introducing: Beyond Zero Emissions (BZE)
Five phase study to achieve zero emissions by 2020:
 Stationary Energy* (mostly electricity generation)
 Transport
 Industrial processes and export
 Buildings
 Land Use (including agriculture & forestry)
* Stationary energy report available now at
www.beyondzeroemissions.org (free) or buy today!
Zero Carbon Australia 2020
A plan for repowering Australia with 100%
renewable energy in ten years
beyond
Z E R O emissions.org
Key Questions:
•
Who are Beyond Zero Emissions?
•
•
Zero Carbon Australia Plan
What are we calling for and why?
–
•
How can we get there?
–
•
100% renewable energy by 2020
Wind and Baseload Solar Thermal
Can it be done?
–
Yes. Fully modelled and costed, using existing
commercial technologies
beyondZEROemissions.org
The
Oil and Gas
CAN'T DO campaign
Generators
Coal exporters
The CAN'T DO MANTRA
“Renewable energy cant supply baseload power”
“Renewable energy is too expensive”
“Renewable energy will wreck the economy”
“Renewable energy will cost jobs”
beyondZEROemissions.org
The ZCA 2020
‘CAN DO’ team
beyondZEROemissions.org
"Australia has one of the world's best
solar energy resource, ... The Zero
Carbon
Australia
Planshift
is based
on up"This report
will help
the climate
to-date
sound
and
debateand
to focus
oninformation
energy; security;
provides
quality
insights
how
a
“We have
the
resources.
need
affordability;
export
and on
ofWe
course
country
well-endowed in renewable
the will.”
opportunity”
resources can transition to a solar
and
Dr. wind
Petereconomy.”
Doherty,
Nobel Laureate,
Professor
Robin Batterham,
School of Australian
Medicine, University
of
President,
Academy of
Cédric
PhilibertSciences and
Melbourne
Technological
Renewable
Energy Division
Engineering,
International Energy Agency
formerly Chief Scientist of Australia
beyondZEROemissions.org
The
•
•
•
•
CAN DO Campaign
Accepts current climate science evidence on what has
to be done & by when
Uses only existing commercially available technology.
We have all the tools NOW
Meets Australia’s total energy demand
with 100% Renewable Energy by 2020
beyondZEROemissions.org
FIVE REPORTS:
Stationary
energy
Buildings
Industry
beyondZEROemissions.org
Transport
Agriculture
Carbon Budget 2010-2050
Why ten years?
“Limiting CO2
emissions to
1 trillion tonnes* by
2050 gives us a 75%
chance of keeping
global warming
below 2oC”
* 2000 - 2050
Meinshausen, et al. (2009):
Greenhouse-gas emission targets
for limiting global warming to 2oC.
Nature 458, 30 April 2009
SEE ALSO www.PRIMAP.org
beyondZEROemissions.org
Why ten years?
Carbon Budget 2010-2050
Most of Europe
beyondZEROemissions.org
Why ten years?
Al Gore calls for 100% clean electricity and
independence from foreign oil within ten years
“a political promise to do something 40
years from now is universally ignored
because everyone knows that it's
meaningless. Ten years is about the
maximum time that we as a nation can
hold a steady aim and hit our target.”
beyondZEROemissions.org
Why ten years?
Thomas Friedman: Three reasons for going renewable 1. End dependence on, and financing
of, the “dictators and terrorists in
the Middle East”
2. ‘Peak oil’ will mean higher prices,
yet more political tension. If we
divide the total of the world’s oil
reserves by the rate at which WE
are using them we get about 12
years (7 for USA use)
3. And to save us from a climate
catastrophe!!
beyondZEROemissions.org
Generating electrical energy
Traditional Power Generation
beyondZEROemissions.org
Generating electrical energy
67% Fossil
92%
beyondZEROemissions.org
Generating electrical energy – from the Sun
Concentrated Solar Thermal
Parabolic Troughs
Power Towers
beyondZEROemissions.org
Generating electrical energy – from the Sun
(52 Kilowatts)
beyondZEROemissions.org
SEGS Plants
354MW in Mohave Desert, California, since 1984
(Solar Electric GeneratingbStations)
eyondZEROemissions.org
Generating electrical energy – from the Sun
600oC
290oC
beyondZEROemissions.org
Solar Two – 1996 - 1999
Run by the U.S. DoE,
Sandia National Laboratories,
Lockheed Martin
10MW turbine, 3 hrs storage
beyondZEROemissions.org
Generating electrical energy – from the Sun
Baseload Solar Thermal Power
24 hour Dispatchable Power
Andasol 1,2, Extresol 1, SAMCA 1, Spain, operating now, 7.5 hours energy storage
Torresol Gemasolar Spain, on line early 2011, 15 hours energy storage
beyondZEROemissions.org
beyondZEROemissions.org
Generating electrical energy – from the Sun
Solar Thermal Storage
Molten salt heat storage tanks
beyondZEROemissions.org
Generating electrical energy – from the Sun
What's happening in Spain?
•
•
•
2,440MW operating or under construction to be
completed over the next 3 years (1½ Hazelwoods)
= $20 billion worth of investment
42% renewable
15,000 MW 'in the pipeline'
by 2020
beyondZEROemissions.org
Generating electrical energy – from the Sun
50MW – Spain
100MW – Nevada
150MW – California
beyondZEROemissions.org
Generating electrical energy – from the Sun
Zero Carbon Australia Solar Thermal Power
220 MW Module





3500 MW Solar Region
To Supply 60% of Australia’s energy
Each module generates up to 220MW
Ability to store energy and dispatch as needed, day or night
A plant or Solar Region will be made up of 19 modules and will
have a total capacity of 3,500MW
There will be 12 plants distributed across Australia (→ 42 GW total)
beyondZEROemissions.org
Generating electrical energy – from wind
ZCA2020 Wind Power
And the other 40%?
beyondZEROemissions.org
Generating electrical energy – from wind
ZCA2020 Wind Power
• 40% of Australia’s total Energy
• 6,400 turbines
• 7.5 MW Enercon E126
(48,000 MW)
• 23 geographically diverse regions
Aus 48,000 MW
beyondZEROemissions.org
Generating electrical energy – from wind
Aus 48,000 MW
beyondZEROemissions.org
World Wind Energy Association 2010
Generating electrical energy – from wind
World Wind Power project growth
•
China 150,000 MW wind by 2020
o
•
Denmark: 20% now (3,500 MW)
o
•
Three Gorges of Wind Project
50 % wind by 2025
Sweden 4,000 MW
Enercon Farm
1100 Turbines
Aus 48,000 MW
beyondZEROemissions.org
Using less electrical energy
Energy Efficiency Opportunities
beyondZEROemissions.org
Using less electrical energy
beyondZEROemissions.org
Using less electrical energy
Energy Efficiency in Transport –
Nissan Patrol
Capacity 5
17 litres per
100km
Siemens Combino tram
Capacity 190
16 litres per 100km
(Oil Energy Equiv)
beyondZEROemissions.org
Using less electrical energy
Electricity and Energy Demand
Oil
Gas
Solar PV & HW
Bioenergy
Electricity
beyondZEROemissions.org
100% Renewable Energy for
Australia - three main components
Image of pylon/tower
Concentrated solar
thermal power
Wind power
beyondZEROemissions.org
Upgraded
electricity grid
- and biofuel
Renewable electrical energy
100% Renewable Stationary Energy
Bio, Hydro 2%
Wind 40%
Solar 60%
beyondZEROemissions.org
Renewable electrical energy
The National Grid
SKM Review of ZCA2020 transmission
“The review finds that the transmission
scenario proposed is technically feasible in
terms of capacity and reliability. In addition, the
proposed transmission uses mature technology
with proven capability around the world.”
beyondZEROemissions.org
Renewable electrical energy
HVDC High Voltage Direct Current
 Forget the “you can’t
transmit power that
far” mantra
 HVDC has been
developed in the last
decade and has solved
the problem of long
distance transmission
beyondZEROemissions.org
Renewable electrical energy
HVDC
High Voltage Direct Current
 Transmits more power on
a given line
 Doesn’t lose power
through radiation
 Enables different systems
to be interconnected
 Can be used over 1000’s
km rather than 100’s
beyondZEROemissions.org
Renewable electrical energy
Simplified illustration of the
advantage of HVDC over HVAC
AC only at peak voltage for a short time
DC at peak voltage constantly
beyondZEROemissions.org
Renewable electrical energy
HVDC is more
cost effective
over long
distances
AC
DC
1000 km
beyondZEROemissions.org
2000 km
Australia's
energy
grid: Grid
20202020
Australia’srenewable
Renewable
Energy
beyondZEROemissions.org
beyondZEROemissions.org
beyondZEROemissions.org
beyondZEROemissions.org
beyondZEROemissions.org
beyondZEROemissions.org
beyondZEROemissions.org
Renewable electrical energy
Resource Requirements
beyondZEROemissions.org
Renewable electrical energy
Labor Requirements
140 thousand
beyondZEROemissions.org
Achievability: Jobs In Context
140 thousand
beyondZEROemissions.org
Renewable electrical energy
Enercon Viana Do Costelo Wind Turbine blade and tower
factories Portugal
250 towers per year 600 Blades 400 Jobs
beyondZEROemissions.org
beyondZEROemissions.org
Solar Thermal Cost Reduction
Trajectory
beyondZEROemissions.org
Safe Climate a Bargain at 3% of GDP
beyondZEROemissions.org
Economic Cost
325TWh/yr electricity
Net present value 2010-2040
(real 2010 AUS$ Billion)
beyondZEROemissions.org
Cost to Economy – all energy
beyondZEROemissions.org
beyondZEROemissions.org
Zero Carbon Australia - Conclusion
• Must be done to secure our climate and future
• Technically doable
• ‘Shovel ready’ using off the shelf technologies
• Fully Resourced
• We have the materials
• Jobs rich
• Fully Costed
• 3% of GDP for 10 years
• Saving over 30 years
beyondZEROemissions.org
Zero Carbon Australia
Pipe Dream?
Or doable dream of a
realistic, sustainable future
for our children?
beyondZEROemissions.org
OUR CHOICE
FOR THE NEXT
30 YEARS
1 m2 mirror
zero emissions
OR
20 tonnes of coal
72 tonnes CO2
half the jobs
beyondZEROemissions.org
 Share the plan
 Zero Carbon Plan Contributor
Transport
Buildings
Land use
 Public Engagement
 Media team
www.beyondzeroemissions.org
beyondZEROemissions.org
 Become a baseload supporter
 Your donation will go towards designing
& implementing Australia's new
renewable energy future.
 Assist volunteer coordinators
Technical Directors
Media
Administration
www.beyondzeroemissions.org
beyondZEROemissions.org