Meta-analysis in animal health and reproduction: methods and applications using Stata Ahmad Rabiee Ian Lean PO Box 660 Camden 2570, NSW SBScibus.com.au.

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Transcript Meta-analysis in animal health and reproduction: methods and applications using Stata Ahmad Rabiee Ian Lean PO Box 660 Camden 2570, NSW SBScibus.com.au.

Meta-analysis in animal health
and reproduction: methods
and applications using Stata
Ahmad Rabiee
Ian Lean
PO Box 660
Camden 2570, NSW
SBScibus.com.au
Meta-analysis
•
•
•
•
•
•
Literature search
study quality assessment
Selection criteria
Statistical analysis
Heterogeneity
Publication bias
Methods of pooling
study results
• Narrative procedure (conventional
critical review method)
• Vote-counting method (significant
results marked “+”, converse “–” and
no significant results “neutral”)
• Combined tests (combining the
probabilities obtain from two or more
independent studies)
Systematic Reviews &
Meta-analysis
• Systematic review is the entire process
of collecting, reviewing and presenting
all available evidence
• Meta-analysis is the statistical
technique involved in extracting and
combining data to produce a summary
result
Aim of a metaanalysis
• To increase power
• To improve precision
• To answer questions not posed by the
individual studies
• To settle controversies arising from
apparently conflicting studies or
• To generate new hypothesis
Different types of
data
•
•
•
•
•
•
Dichotomous data (e.g. dead or live)
Counts of events (e.g. no. of pregnancies)
Short ordinal scales (e.g. pain score)
Long ordinal scales (e.g. quality of life)
Continuous data (e.g. cholesterol con.)
Censored data or survival data (e.g. time
to 1st service)
Statistical models
• Fixed effect models
– Mantel-Haenszel (MH)
• Has optimal statistical power
• Softwares are available for the analysis
– Peto test (modified MH method)
• Recommended for non-experimental studies
• Random effect models
– DerSimonian & Laird method
– Bayesian method
• Regression models (Mixed model)
Fixed effect methods
• Mantel-Haenszel approach
– Odd ratio
– Risk ratio
– Risk difference
– Not recommended in review with sparse data (trials
with zero events in treatment or control group)
• Peto method
– Odds ratio
– Used in studies with small treatment effect and rare
events
– Not a very common method
– Used when the size of groups within trial are
balanced
Random effects
analytic methods
• Odd ratio
• Risk ratio
• Risk difference
Dichotomous data
• Odds Ratio (OR)
– The odds of the event occurring in one group divided by the
odds of the event occurring in the other group
• Relative risk or Risk Ratio (RR)
– The risk of the events in one group divided by the risk of the event in the
other group
• Risk difference (RD; -1 to +1)
– Risk in the experimental group minus risk in the control group
• Confidence interval (CI)
– The level of uncertainty in the estimate of treatment effect
– An estimate of the range in which the estimate would fall a fixed
percentage of times if the study repeated many times
Risk ratio vs.
Odds ratio
• Odds ratio (OR) will always be further from
the point of no effect than a risk ratio (RR)
• If event rate in the treatment group
– OR & RR > 1, but
– OR > RR
• If event rate in the treatment group
– OR & RR < 1, but
– OR < RR
Risk ratio vs.
Odds ratio
• When the event is rare
– OR and RR will be similar
• When the event is common
– OR and RR will differ
• In situations of common events, odd
ratio can be misleading
Meta-analysis
features in Stata
1. metan
2. labbe
3. metacum
4. metap
5. metareg
6. metafunnel
7. confunnel
8. metabias
9. metatrim
10. metandi & metandiplot
11. glst
12. metamiss
13. mvmeta & mvmeta_make
14. metannt
15. metaninf
16. midas
17. meta_lr
18. metaparm
Source: http://www.stata.com/support/faqs/stat/meta.html
Metan in Stata
•
•
•
Relative Risk (Fixed and Random effect model)
Fixedi= Fixed effect RR with inverse variance method
Fixed= M-H RR method
metan evtrt non_evtrt evctrl non_evctrl, rr fixed second(random)
favours(reduces pregnancy rate # increases pregnancy rate)
lcols(names outcome dose) by(status) sortby(outcome) force
astext(70) textsize(200) boxsca(80) xsize(10) ysize(6)
pointopt( msymbol(triangle) mcolor(gold) msize(tiny)
mlabel() mlabsize(vsmall) mlabcolor(forest_green) mlabposition(1))
ciopt( lcolor(sienna) lwidth(medium)) rfdist rflevel(95) counts
• Saving the graph in different formats
graph export "D:\Forest plot.gph", replace
graph export "D:\Forest plot.gph".png", replace
graph export "D:\Forest plot.gph".eps", replace
Forest plot using
Metan (Risk Ratio)
names
outcome
Cycling
Westhuysen 1980
1st Service CP
Moller & Fielden 1981
1st Service CP
Fielden & Moller 1983
1st Service CP
Macmillan & Taufa 1983
1st Service CP
Alacam et al 1986
1st Service CP
Dmitriev et al 1986
1st Service CP
Klinskii et al. 1987
1st Service CP
Chenault 1990
1st Service CP
Schels & Mostafawi 1978
1st Service CP
Lee et al 1983
1st Service CP
Lee et al 1983
1st Service CP
Nakao et al 1983
1st Service CP
Stevenson et al 1984
1st Service CP
Lee et al 1985
1st Service CP
Pennington et al 1985
1st Service CP
Lucy & Stevenson 1986
1st Service CP
Chenault 1990
1st Service CP
Lewis et al 1990
1st Service CP
Goldbeck 1976
1st Service CP
Anderson & Malmo 1985
1st Service CP
Grunert & Schwarz 1976
1st Service CP
Schels & Mostafawi 1978
2nd Service CP
Westhuysen 1980
2nd Service CP
Lee et atl 1983
2nd Service CP
Lee et al 1983
2nd Service CP
Stevenson et al 1984
2nd Service CP
Anderson & Malmo 1985
2nd Service CP
Pennington et al 1985
2nd Service CP
Lewis et al 1990
2nd Service CP
M-H Subtotal (I-squared = 31.2%, p = 0.058)
D+L Subtotal
.with estimated predictive interval
.
Repeat Breeder
Lee et al 1983
Pregnancy rate
Stevenson et al 1984
Pregnancy rate
Pennington et al 1985
Pregnancy rate
Anderson & Malmo 1985
Pregnancy rate
Phatak et al 1986
Pregnancy rate
Roussel et al 1988
Pregnancy rate
Roussel et al 1988
Pregnancy rate
Stevenson et al 1988
Pregnancy rate
Stevenson et al 1990
Pregnancy rate
Lewis et al 1990
Pregnancy rate
Bon Durant et al 1991
Pregnancy rate
M-H Subtotal (I-squared = 55.7%, p = 0.012)
D+L Subtotal
.with estimated predictive interval
.
M-H Overall (I-squared = 48.1%, p = 0.000)
D+L Overall
.with estimated predictive interval
Events,
Treatment
Events,
Control
%
Weight
(M-H)
1.36 (0.98, 1.90)
1.19 (1.02, 1.39)
1.10 (1.01, 1.20)
1.03 (0.93, 1.14)
1.28 (0.95, 1.72)
1.17 (0.81, 1.71)
1.54 (0.92, 2.58)
0.82 (0.67, 1.01)
1.19 (0.93, 1.52)
1.24 (0.96, 1.60)
0.93 (0.76, 1.14)
1.15 (1.03, 1.28)
1.04 (0.82, 1.31)
1.00 (0.45, 2.23)
1.01 (0.85, 1.18)
1.94 (0.56, 6.73)
0.81 (0.66, 0.99)
0.94 (0.72, 1.22)
1.19 (1.02, 1.40)
1.09 (1.01, 1.17)
1.20 (1.04, 1.38)
1.39 (0.78, 2.45)
1.02 (0.75, 1.40)
1.24 (1.07, 1.43)
1.00 (0.87, 1.15)
1.19 (0.91, 1.57)
1.03 (0.85, 1.24)
0.98 (0.75, 1.28)
1.10 (0.74, 1.65)
1.08 (1.05, 1.12)
1.09 (1.04, 1.13)
.
(0.95, 1.24)
29/44
170/292
414/655
174/260
27/33
26/46
20/35
95/240
64/109
76/154
59/92
346/605
69/146
6/12
146/282
10/18
94/242
58/131
87/107
396/674
112/138
17/45
12/15
123/154
74/92
55/100
50/86
58/125
27/60
2894/4992
30/62
139/284
371/647
582/896
23/36
26/54
13/35
117/243
54/109
58/146
64/93
293/589
83/182
6/12
136/264
2/7
117/243
60/127
73/107
1529/2828
95/140
15/55
25/32
94/146
75/93
48/104
654/1156
54/114
27/66
4863/8870
0.63
3.55
9.39
6.59
0.55
0.60
0.33
2.93
1.36
1.50
1.60
7.47
1.86
0.15
3.54
0.07
2.94
1.53
1.84
14.81
2.37
0.34
0.40
2.43
1.88
1.18
2.28
1.42
0.65
76.19
1.53 (1.27, 1.83)
1.22 (0.99, 1.51)
1.18 (0.79, 1.78)
0.83 (0.61, 1.13)
1.24 (1.07, 1.44)
2.10 (1.33, 3.33)
1.41 (1.08, 1.84)
1.39 (0.95, 2.04)
1.21 (1.06, 1.39)
0.77 (0.41, 1.43)
1.10 (0.95, 1.28)
1.22 (1.15, 1.31)
1.24 (1.11, 1.38)
.
(0.91, 1.70)
135/185
84/144
27/49
26/59
231/492
40/45
158/283
20/37
304/765
11/32
214/495
1250/2586
77/161
75/157
20/43
160/302
177/469
11/26
38/96
40/103
235/717
13/29
184/468
1030/2571
2.07
1.81
0.54
1.32
4.56
0.35
1.43
0.53
6.11
0.34
4.76
23.81
1.12 (1.08, 1.15)
1.12 (1.07, 1.17)
.
(0.93, 1.35)
4144/7578
5893/11441
100.00
dose
RR (95% CI)
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
250
250
250
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
all
.149
1
reduces pregnancy rate
6.73
increases pregnancy rate
Forest plot using
Metan (SMD)
Reference
Lact
Diet
SMD (95% CI)
N, mean
(SD); Treatment
N, mean
(SD); Control
%
Weight
(I-V)
P
Mexico study
Early-Mid-late
TMR
Campbell et al.
Early-Mid
TMR+10
Snead et al.
Early-Mid
TMR
Colorado study
Early-Mid-late
TMR
Monardes et al.
Early
TMR
New York study1
Early-Mid-late
TMR
Texas study2
Early-Mid-late
TMR
Texas study1
Early-Mid
TMR
California study-2
Early-Mid
TMR
California study-1
Early-Mid
TMR
Ferguson et al.
Early-Mid-late
TMR
Kincaid and Socha.
Early-Mid
TMR
Nocek et al. (Year 2)
Early-Mid-late
TMR
Nocek et al. (Year 1)
Early-Mid-late
TMR
I-V Subtotal (I-squared = 84.3%, p = 0.000)
D+L Subtotal
with estimated predictive interval
0.63 (0.22, 1.05)
0.18 (-0.32, 0.69)
-0.05 (-0.56, 0.45)
0.36 (0.08, 0.63)
-0.13 (-0.79, 0.54)
0.11 (-0.21, 0.43)
0.11 (-0.04, 0.27)
0.18 (-0.08, 0.43)
0.10 (-0.17, 0.37)
0.13 (-0.19, 0.44)
0.06 (-0.28, 0.39)
-0.08 (-0.74, 0.57)
0.98 (0.69, 1.27)
1.25 (0.96, 1.54)
0.30 (0.22, 0.38)
0.30 (0.08, 0.52)
.
(-0.53, 1.13)
46, 37.3 (2.68)
30, 35.7 (6.02)
30, 33.9 (6.99)
104, 36.8 (5.25)
17, 36.7 (8.45)
93, 29.8 (10.2)
315, 36.2 (8.87)
161, 40.6 (10.9)
105, 44.6 (8.81)
105, 44.6 (8.81)
63, 28.6 (3.96)
18, 41.7 (5.94)
102, 43.5 (2.02)
107, 37.6 (2.07)
1296
46, 35.6 (2.68)
30, 34.6 (6.02)
30, 34.2 (5.31)
103, 34.8 (5.6)
18, 37.8 (8.7)
65, 28.7 (9.39)
313, 35.2 (7.96)
94, 38.8 (8.34)
109, 43.7 (8.98)
62, 43.5 (6.77)
73, 28.4 (3.91)
18, 42.2 (5.94)
106, 41.5 (2.06)
109, 35 (2.09)
1176
1.81
1.23
1.24
4.20
0.72
3.15
12.94
4.88
4.41
3.21
2.79
0.74
3.83
3.72
48.87
A
Uchida at al.
Early
TMR
McKay et al
Early-Mid-late
Pasture
Ballantine et al.
Early-Mid-late
TMR
California study-4
Early-Mid
TMR
California study-3
Early-Mid
TMR
Lean et al.
Early-Mid-late
PMR (Pasture+TMR)
Toni et al.
Early-Mid-late
Comp
New York study
Early-Mid-late
TMR+15
Griffiths et al.
Early-Mid-late
Pasture
I-V Subtotal (I-squared = 27.5%, p = 0.199)
D+L Subtotal
with estimated predictive interval
-0.25 (-0.88, 0.37)
-0.03 (-0.22, 0.15)
0.36 (0.11, 0.61)
0.01 (-0.32, 0.35)
0.03 (-0.34, 0.41)
-0.00 (-0.18, 0.17)
0.17 (-0.12, 0.46)
0.22 (-0.03, 0.47)
0.18 (0.01, 0.35)
0.10 (0.02, 0.18)
0.10 (0.01, 0.20)
.
(-0.11, 0.32)
20, 44.4 (1.97)
229, 17.1 (3.03)
128, 41.8 (3.39)
50, 43.8 (6.08)
50, 43.8 (6.08)
233, 25.7 (4.27)
90, 34.8 (5.88)
125, 37.8 (5.03)
277, 17.5 (4.99)
1202
20, 44.9 (1.97)
229, 17.2 (3.03)
123, 40.6 (3.33)
109, 43.7 (8.98)
62, 43.5 (6.77)
276, 25.7 (4.32)
90, 33.8 (5.88)
125, 36.7 (5.03)
278, 16.6 (5)
1312
0.82
9.45
5.09
2.83
2.28
10.43
3.70
5.13
11.40
51.13
Heterogeneity between groups: p = 0.000
I-V Overall (I-squared = 79.2%, p = 0.000)
D+L Overall
with estimated predictive interval
0.20 (0.14, 0.26)
0.22 (0.09, 0.35)
.
(-0.37, 0.80)
2498
2488
100.00
-1.54
0
reduces milk yield
1.54
increases milk yield
Forest plot using
Metan (WMD)
Reference
Lact
Diet
WMD (95% CI)
N, mean
(SD); Treatment
N, mean
(SD); Control
%
Weight
(I-V)
P
Mexico study
Early-Mid-late
TMR
Campbell et al.
Early-Mid
TMR+10
Snead et al.
Early-Mid
TMR
Colorado study
Early-Mid-late
TMR
Monardes et al.
Early
TMR
New York study1
Early-Mid-late
TMR
Texas study2
Early-Mid-late
TMR
Texas study1
Early-Mid
TMR
California study-2
Early-Mid
TMR
California study-1
Early-Mid
TMR
Ferguson et al.
Early-Mid-late
TMR
Kincaid and Socha.
Early-Mid
TMR
Nocek et al. (Year 2)
Early-Mid-late
TMR
Nocek et al. (Year 1)
Early-Mid-late
TMR
I-V Subtotal (I-squared = 37.0%, p = 0.080)
D+L Subtotal
with estimated predictive interval
1.70 (0.60, 2.80)
1.10 (-1.95, 4.15)
-0.32 (-3.46, 2.82)
1.94 (0.46, 3.42)
-1.10 (-6.78, 4.58)
1.10 (-1.98, 4.18)
0.96 (-0.36, 2.28)
1.80 (-0.58, 4.18)
0.91 (-1.47, 3.29)
1.04 (-1.34, 3.42)
0.22 (-1.11, 1.55)
-0.50 (-4.38, 3.38)
2.00 (1.45, 2.55)
2.60 (2.05, 3.15)
1.90 (1.58, 2.22)
1.56 (1.05, 2.07)
.
(0.31, 2.81)
46, 37.3 (2.68)
30, 35.7 (6.02)
30, 33.9 (6.99)
104, 36.8 (5.25)
17, 36.7 (8.45)
93, 29.8 (10.2)
315, 36.2 (8.87)
161, 40.6 (10.9)
105, 44.6 (8.81)
105, 44.6 (8.81)
63, 28.6 (3.96)
18, 41.7 (5.94)
102, 43.5 (2.02)
107, 37.6 (2.07)
1296
46, 35.6 (2.68)
30, 34.6 (6.02)
30, 34.2 (5.31)
103, 34.8 (5.6)
18, 37.8 (8.7)
65, 28.7 (9.39)
313, 35.2 (7.96)
94, 38.8 (8.34)
109, 43.7 (8.98)
62, 43.5 (6.77)
73, 28.4 (3.91)
18, 42.2 (5.94)
106, 41.5 (2.06)
109, 35 (2.09)
1176
4.21
0.54
0.51
2.31
0.16
0.53
2.90
0.89
0.89
0.89
2.86
0.34
16.42
16.42
49.86
A
Uchida at al.
Early
TMR
McKay et al
Early-Mid-late
Pasture
Ballantine et al.
Early-Mid-late
TMR
California study-4
Early-Mid
TMR
California study-3
Early-Mid
TMR
Lean et al.
Early-Mid-late
PMR (Pasture+TMR)
Toni et al.
Early-Mid-late
Comp
New York study
Early-Mid-late
TMR+15
Griffiths et al.
Early-Mid-late
Pasture
I-V Subtotal (I-squared = 38.3%, p = 0.113)
D+L Subtotal
with estimated predictive interval
-0.50 (-1.72, 0.72)
-0.10 (-0.65, 0.45)
1.20 (0.37, 2.03)
0.09 (-2.29, 2.47)
0.22 (-2.16, 2.60)
-0.01 (-0.76, 0.74)
1.00 (-0.72, 2.72)
1.10 (-0.15, 2.35)
0.90 (0.07, 1.73)
0.35 (0.03, 0.67)
0.42 (-0.03, 0.87)
.
(-0.68, 1.51)
20, 44.4 (1.97)
229, 17.1 (3.03)
128, 41.8 (3.39)
50, 43.8 (6.08)
50, 43.8 (6.08)
233, 25.7 (4.27)
90, 34.8 (5.88)
125, 37.8 (5.03)
277, 17.5 (4.99)
1202
20, 44.9 (1.97)
229, 17.2 (3.03)
123, 40.6 (3.33)
109, 43.7 (8.98)
62, 43.5 (6.77)
276, 25.7 (4.32)
90, 33.8 (5.88)
125, 36.7 (5.03)
278, 16.6 (5)
1312
3.39
16.42
7.30
0.89
0.89
9.00
1.71
3.24
7.30
50.14
Heterogeneity between groups: p = 0.000
I-V Overall (I-squared = 72.2%, p = 0.000)
D+L Overall
with estimated predictive interval
1.12 (0.90, 1.35)
0.93 (0.42, 1.44)
.
(-1.05, 2.91)
2498
2488
100.00
-6.78
0
reduces milk yield
6.78
increases milk yield
Homogeneity
• Meta-analysis should only be
considered when a group of trials is
sufficiently homogeneous in terms of
participations, interventions and
outcomes to provide a meaningful
summary
Examination for
heterogeneity
• Examination for “heterogeneity” involves
determination of whether individual
differences between study outcomes are
greater than could be expected by chance
alone.
• Analysis of “heterogeneity” is the most
important function of MA, often more
important than computing an “average”
effect.
Differences between
studies
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
By different investigators
In different settings
In different countries
In different ways
For different length of time
To look at different outcomes
Etc.
Studies differ in 3
basic ways
• Clinical diversity: Variability in the
participants, interventions and outcomes studied
• Methodological diversity: Variability in
the trial design and quality
• Statistical heterogeneity: Variability in
the treatment effects being evaluated in
the different trials. This is a consequence
of clinical and/or methodological diversity
among the studies
Methods for estimation
of heterogeneity
• Conventional chi-square (χ2) analysis (P>0.10)
• I2= [(Q-df)/Q x 100% (Higgins et al. 2003), where
Q is the chi-squared statistic; df is its degrees of freedom
• Graphical test-forest plots (OR or RR and confidence
intervals)
• L’Abbe plots (outcome rates in treatment and control
groups are plotted on the vertical and horizontal axes)
• Galbraith plot
• Regression analysis
• Comparing the results of fixed and random effect
models (a crude assessment of heterogeneity)
0
.75
.5
.25
0
.25
.5
Event rate group 1
.75
1
1
L’Abbe plot
0
0
.25
.5
.75
Event rate group 2
1
labbe evtrt non evtrt evctrl nonevctrl, rr(1.21) null
.25
.5
.75
Event rate group 2
Null
Risk ratio
1
Odds ratio
Studies
labbe evtrt nonevtrt evctrl nonevctrl, rr(1.21) or(1.30) null
Galbraith plot
b/se(b)
b/se(b)
Fitted values
4.72877
Fitted values
3.8419
b/se(b)
b/se(b)
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
0
14.9965
1/se(b)
0
11.5116
1/se(b)
galbr logrr selogES (dichotomous data)
Strategies for addressing
heterogeneity
•
•
•
•
•
Check again that the data are correct
Do not do a meta-analysis
Ignore heterogeneity (fixed effect model)
Perform a random effects meta-analysis
Change the effect measure (e.g. different
scale or units)
• Split studies into subgroups
• Investigate heterogeneity using metaregression
• Exclude studies
Sensitivity analysis
(sub-group)
• A process for re-analysing the same
data set
• A range of principles used, depends on
– Choice of statistical test
– Inclusion criteria
– Inclusion of both published and unpublished
Meta-regression
• To investigate whether heterogeneity among results
of multiple studies is related to specific
characteristics of the studies (e.g. dose rate)
• To investigate whether particular covariate
(potential ‘effect modifier’) explain any of the
heterogeneity of treatment effect between studies
• Can find out if there is evidence of different effects
in different subgroups of trials
• It is appropriate to use meta-regression to explore
sources of heterogeneity even if an initial overall
test for heterogeneity is non-significant
Meta-regression-1
metareg _ES bcalving acalving full_lact monen_other bstcode apcode, wsse(_seES)
bsest(reml)
Meta-regression
Number of obs = 23
REML estimate of between-study variance
tau2 = .04357
% residual variation due to heterogeneity
I-squared_res = 65.24%
Proportion of between-study variance explained Adj R-squared = 51.05%
Joint test for all covariates
Model F(6,16) = 3.50
With Knapp-Hartung modification
Prob > F
= 0.0209
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------_ES |
Coef.
Std. Err.
t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------bcalving |
-.0028578 .0031445 -0.91 0.377 -.0095239 .0038083
acalving |
-.0007429 .0013228 -0.56 0.582 -.0035472 .0020613
full_lact |
.3517979 .2544234 1.38 0.186 -.1875556 .8911513
other s|
.3403943 .1278838 2.66 0.017 .0692928 .6114959
bstcode |
-.0333014 .1370641 -0.24 0.811 -.3238642 .2572614
apcode |
.4589506 .1391693 3.30 0.005 .1639249 .7539762
_cons |
-.3564435 .2521411 -1.41 0.177 -.8909586 .1780717
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Meta-regression
metareg _ES full_lact monen_other apcode, wsse(_seES) bsest(reml)
Meta-regression
Number of obs =
23
REML estimate of between-study variance
tau2
= .04134
% residual variation due to heterogeneity
I-squared_res = 66.02%
Proportion of between-study variance explained
Adj R-squared = 53.55%
Joint test for all covariates
Model F(3,19)
= 6.63
With Knapp-Hartung modification
Prob > F
= 0.0030
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------_ES |
Coef. Std. Err.
t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------full_lact | .3138975 .117573 2.67 0.015 .0678144 .5599807
others |
.3640601 .124601 2.92 0.009 .1032672 .6248529
apcode | .4385834 .1253647 3.50 0.002 .1761921 .700974
_cons |
-.4478162 .1598295 -2.80 0.011 -.7823432 -.1132892
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Funnel Plots
Publication bias
+ve results more likely




To be published (publication bias)
To be published rapidly (time lag bias)
To be published in English (language bias)
To be published more than once (multiple
publications bias)
 To be cited by others (citation bias)
Sources of Bias
Bias arising from the studies included in
the review
Bias arising from the way the review is
done
Publication bias is only one of the
possible reasons for asymmetrical funnel
plot
Funnel plot should been seen as a
means of examining “small study effect”
Publication bias
Funnel plot
Publication bias exists (asymmetrical)
Publication bias doesn’t exists (symmetrical)
For continuous data- Effect size plotted vs SE or
sample size
For dichotomous data- LogOR or RR vs logSE or
sample size
Fail Safe Number (F)
Z= (∑ ES/1.645)2-N: (where N= no of papers; ∑ ES is
summed of effect size over all studies)for calculation of unpublished studies that would be
required to negate the results of a significantly positive ES
analysis.
.4
.8
.6
se(SMD)
.2
0
Funnel plot with pseudo 95% confidence limits
-2
-1
0
1
Standardized mean difference (SMD)
2
.4
.6
1
.8
se(SMD)
.2
0
Funnel plot with pseudo 95% confidence limits
-2
-1
0
1
Standardized mean difference (SMD)
2
.4
.6
.8
Standard error
Continuous
data
.2
0
Funnel plot with pseudo 95% confidence limits
Funnel plot (continuous data)
metabias _ES _seES, egger
-2
-1
0
Effect estimate
1
0
2
Studies
0.01
0.05
0.1
Standard error
.2
.4
Contour-enhanced funnel plot
confunnel _ES _seES
.6
.8
-2
-1
0
Effect estimate
1
2
Filled funnel plot with pseudo 95% confidence limits
2
Trim & Fill
metatrim _ES _seES, funnel print
theta, filled
1
0
-1
-2
0
.2
.4
s.e. of: theta, filled
.6
.8
.6
.4
se(logRR)
Dichotomus
data
.2
0
Funnel plot with pseudo 95% confidence limits
Funnel plot
metabias _logES _selogES, egger
-1
-.5
0
.5
1
1.5
log_ES
0
Studies
0.01
0.05
0.1
Standard error
.2
.4
Contour-enhanced funnel plot
confunnel _logES _selogES
.6
-2
-1
0
Effect estimate
1
2
Filled funnel plot with pseudo 95% confidence limits
2
Trim & Fill
metatrim _logES _selogES, funnel print
theta, filled
1
0
-1
0
.2
.4
s.e. of: theta, filled
.6
Testing for funnel plot
asymmetry-1
Cochrane group suggests that that tests for
funnel plot asymmetry should be used in
only a minority of meta-analyses (Ioannidis
2007)
Begg’s rank correlation test (adjusted
rank correlation-low power)
 This test is NOT recommended with any type of data
Eggers linear regression test (regression
analysis-low power)
 This test is mainly recommended for continuous data
Testing for funnel plot
asymmetry-2
Peters (2006) & Harbord (2006) tests
 These tests are suitable for dichotomous data
with odds ratios
 False-positive results may occur in the presence
of substantial between-study heterogeneity
For dichotomous outcomes with risk
ratios (RR) or risk differences (RD)
 Firm guidance is not yet available
Correcting for
publication bias
Trim and fill method (tail of the side of the
funnel plot with smaller trials chopped off)
Fail safe N (required studies to overturn
positive results)
Modelling for the probability of studies not
published
Conclusion: there is no definite answer
for assessing the presence of publication
bias
Influence analysis
Meta-analysis estimates, given named study is omitted
Lower CI Limit
Estimate
Upper CI Limit
Beckett (1998)
Duffield (1998)
Heuer (2001)
Duffield (2002)
Green_A (2004)
Green_B (2004)
Green_C(2004)
Green_D (2004)
Green_E(2004)
Green_F(2004)
Melendez (2006)
0.85 0.92
1.39
2.11
metaninf nt mean_t sd_t nc mean_c sd_c, label(namevar=study year) random cohen
2.34
References
• www.stata.com/support/faqs/stat/meta.html
• Cochrane Collaboration Open learning
material for reviewers (2002)
• Higgins et al. (2001). BMJ 327: 557-560
• Sterne et al. (2001). BMJ 323: 101-105
• Whitehead A (2002). Meta-analysis of
Controlled Clinical Trials