Transcript WWRP report to the CAS Management Group Gilbert Brunet WWRP/JSC Chair Work Group Meetings SERA Working Group 12-13 October, 2009 (Trieste) Group on Tropical Meteorology Research 23-24

WWRP report to the CAS
Management Group
Gilbert Brunet
WWRP/JSC Chair
Work Group Meetings
SERA Working Group
12-13 October, 2009 (Trieste)
Group on Tropical Meteorology Research
23-24 October 2009 (Shanghai)
Meso-scale Working Group
26-27 August 2010 (NCAR)
SERA Working Group
27-29 September 2010 (Toulouse)
Verification Working Group
27-29 September 2010 (Toulouse)
SERA Scope and Research Priorities
The primary purpose of the WG SERA is to advance
the science of the social and economic application
of weather-related information and services. This
will be accomplished in part through the
development, review and promotion of societal and
economic-related demonstration projects focused
on high-impact weather (HIW) and information.
SERA Working Group Structure
WWRP Expert Liaison
Research & Application
Interest Groups
(THORPEX-TIGGE)
Core Membership
WWRP Expert Liaison
(Verification)
• social scientists
• users
• engagers
WWRP Expert Liaison
(Mesoscale Weather,
THORPEX-RCs,etc.)
Projects,
Demonstrations &
Testbeds
ICSU/ISSC/ISDR
Integrated Research on
Disaster Risk (IRDR)
WMO Programme Management
Other Connections (IFRC, IAEM, Earth
(THORPEX-EC, WMO Forum/PWS, CClOPAGs3/4…)
System Science Partnership, GEO, WHO,
WTO, World Bank, NMHAs, industry
organizations, IIASA, etc.)
SERA WG Meeting #1 – October 2009, Trieste, Italy
Linda Anderson-Berry (Bureau of Meteorology, Australia)
Kwabena Asomanin Anaman (Ghana Institute of Management
and Public Administration)
Jacqueline Frick (Swiss Federal Research Institute)
Paul Kovacs (Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, Canada)
Nanette Lomarda (WG SERA Secretariat)
Brian Mills (Environment Canada)
Michael Staudinger (Zentralanstallt f. Meteorologie und
Geodynamik, Austria)
Angelika Wirtz (Munich Reinsurance, Germany)
Guests
Aïda Diongue-Niang (Senegal Meteorological Agency)
David Parsons (WWRP Secretariat)
Eugene Poolman (South African Weather Service)
ICTP, Trieste
SERA Tasks (WWRP Strategic Plan)
1.
Finalize the initial WGSERA membership and establish a three-year WG meeting schedule
with the WWRP Secretariat - done
2.
Clearly define mutual and complementary roles with the ICSU Planning Group on Natural
and Human induced Hazards and Disasters (ICSU IRDR).
I.
forming a joint ICSU-IRDR/WMO WWRP-SERA Working Group as recommended by
CAS
II.
having an Ex Officio representative of WMO- WWRP on the IRDR Steering Committee
3.
Establish a basic inventory of related projects, capacity, contacts, and interest in SERA
through consultation with WG members, NMHSs, WWRP WGs, THORPEX Regional
Committees, other WMO programmes, professional societies, and academic institutions.
4.
Develop the architecture and content for an international SERAwx web resource for social
scientists and users (either on the WMO-WWRP site or an external server).
5.
Joint meeting/session with the JWGVR to define and scope a series of regional and sector
based case applications that cut across nowcasting, meso-, and sub-seasonal scales of
prediction/decision-making – 27 to 29 September 2010
6.
Develop, test and evaluate a SERA-friendly TIGGE dataset from multiple user-perspectives
in conjunction with the THORPEX-TIGGE WG.
7.
Prepare an outline scoping out a multi-year project to assess the global societal and
economic benefits (and costs) of weather information.
SERA Meeting #1 Decisions/Actions
General
Many WWRP projects were conceived and planned without substantive SERA
involvement/consultation at their inception—this must change. Potential funding
opportunities for SERA-related interests should be identified.
The WWRP Secretariat/JSC Chair should seek approval to allocate new funds
(up to US$50k/yr) for basic societal and economic research and applications to
advance SERA initiatives.
 It is recommended that the WWRP Division should acquire familiarity with and
experience managing or conducting socio-economic research.
Africa
A fully-costed African THORPEX Implementation Plan would make it easier to
identify and obtain funding.
A approach to using the MunichRe impact event information in support of the
THORPEX Africa High Impact Weather Information System database will be
developed.
SERA Meeting #1 Decisions/Actions
Decision/Action: WG SERA will develop a Warning Information System “PreDemonstration Project” which will include a GlFS-TIGGE/TIGGE-LAM evaluation
component and applications derived from existing activities (e.g., MeteoAlarm,
MAP D-Phase, GIN, SWFDPs other EPS applications). J. Frick, B. Mills, L.
Anderson-Berry, M. Staudinger, E. Poolman to define specific research questions,
opportunities to leverage existing or planned projects, and ultimately a
plan/proposal (J. Frick to inform WG SERA on GIN activity before March 2010;
report on progress at next WG SERA meeting, June-July 2010).
SERA #2 – 27 to 29 September 2010
NEW OPPORTUNITIES AND UPDATES
KULTURISK and other Swiss Federal Research Institute
activities
South Pacific Severe Weather Forecast Disaster risk
reduction Demonstration Project (SWFDDP) and/or 2009
Bush Fire event in Australia
Economic approaches to measure the impacts of extreme
weather events
African Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project
(SWFDP), South African Flood
Forecasting Guidance project, THORPEX Southern
Hemisphere Regional Committee
Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics:
RDP SNOW V10
Requirements
•
High winds
•
Fog/Ceiling/Visibility
•
Precipitation Type/Intensity
•
Road weather
•
Orographic Enhancement
•
Wind directions
•
Rapidly changing in space/time
•
Narrow confined valley
•
Coastal
End User Requirements
Threshold Matrix for Downhill, Slalom and Giant Slalom
(from Chis Doyle)
New Snow
(24 hours)
Wind
Visibility
Rain
Wind Chill
Critical
Decision point
> 30 cm
Constant
above 17 m/s
or gusts > 17
m/s
< 20 m on the
entire course>
15mm in 6 hours or
less
> -20
Significant
decision point
> 15 cm
and < 30
cm
Constant 11
m/s to 17 m/s
<
20 m on
portions of
the course
Mixed precipitation
Factor to
consider
> 5 cm
Gusts above
14 m/s but <
17 m/s>
>20m but
<50m on
whole or part
of the course
Whistler Peak
Instrument Sites on
Whistler
Hot Plates
Parsivel
POSS
Snow Photo
Snow Gauges
1800
MR Radar
Radiometer
Ceilometer
1200
Soundings
SNOW V10 Venue Forecast:
Whistler Creekside Downhill/Slalom/Giant Slalom
Pig Alley/Mid Station/Timing Flats
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS : VALID AT 2010-02-13 16:00 GMT
PAST
NOWCAST
NOW
-6h
-5h
-4h
-3h
-2h
-1h
+15
GMT TIME
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
WIND [m/s]
10
10
12
10
9
9
8
GUSTS [m/s]
0
0
5
VIS [m]
100+
100+
100+
SNOW
[cm]
0
0
0
RAIN
[mm]
0
0
0
T [C]
-18
-18
-16
WIND CHILL [C]
-20
-20
-20
+30
+45
+1h
+15
+30
+45
17
8
8
10
10
10
10
10
Click on box would give reason
for alert and indication of
confidence (from forecaster or
verification scores) in forecast.
All boxes would likely contain a
range of values or most likely
value.
+2h
+3h
+4h
+5h
+6h
18
19
20
21
22
15
20
22
15
15
0
0
0
3
3
3
5
5
15
15
15
10
15
15
10
10
100+
100+
100+
100+
100+
100+
100+
100+
100+
100+
100+
100+
100+
100+
100+
100+
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-15
-15
-14
-13
-13
-13
-10
-14
-16
-15
-16
-16
-16
-16
-16
-16
-18
-18
-18
-15
-15
-15
-12
-15
-20
-20
-20
-20
-25
-25
-20
-20
Prototype Product Under Discussion
BAMS August 2010
Meso-scale Working Group
Integrated Meso-scale Research
Environments (IMRE)
Definitions and goals
To prepare a reference data set (including all
relevant information, not only meteorological) for
a particular problem that is relevant in mesoscale meteorology
Examples of relevant problems (meso-scale
DA; convection; complex terrain; surface
exchange incl. urban; predictability)
Instructions on how meso-scale models should
in general be tested, how to separate error
sources, how to verify etc.
Meso-scale Working Group
Procedure
WG-MWFR publishes/updates/acknowledges
a selection of test-bed cases where modelers
can download the information, the validation
data set & test their model on the case.
Goal for the WG would be that the ‘WGMWFR’ test-bed (or IMRE) becomes a
benchmark reference for meso-scale models.
Meso-scale Working Group
Meso-scale Working Group
Meso-scale Working Group
Status of the Sochi-2014 RDP / FDP
Stephane Belair and
Jeanette Onvlee
Meeting of the Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Working Group
NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA, 26-27 August 2010
REMINDER... Meteorological
support for the Sochi 2014 Winter
Olympic Games
A few slides from last
year’s meeting at
KNMI... based on a
presentation provided
by Dmitry Kiktev from
Roshydromet
Two clusters
of «Sochi-2014»
Olympic venues
Snow sports competitions
Ice sports competitions
Sochi-2014
Observational network in the region of the Games
Current atmospheric monitoring network is sparse and not representative enough
given the complexity of the region and high Olympic demands. Ground-based
observations are mostly concentrated along the coast. Vast sea area from one side
and nearby high mountains (up to 3 km and more) on another side of Krasnaya
Polyana are virtually uncovered with contact observations.
(partially completed)
In 2009-2010 more than 30 automatic stations should be added to enhance the
existing observational network. Major part of these new stations will be located in
close proximity to the Olympic venues.
+ 3-5 moored sea buoys 100-150 km away from the coast;
+ 8 mobile automated meteorological stations;
+ More frequent sounding at the nearest aerological stations;
+ 5 Dopplers instead of existing outdated radars;
+ Several profilers (2-3)
….
Sochi-2014
PROPOSED THEMES for the NOWCASTING/MESOSCALE RDP/FDP
 Observations for winter nowcasting over complex terrain
 Diagnosis, nowcasting, and short-range forecasting of multi-weather
elements – wind speed and wind gust, visibility, fog, precipitation
intensity and time
 Mesoscale deterministic and ensemble prediction
 High resolution deterministic and ensemble prediction (including
downscaled surface systems and fog models)
 Microphysics and other physical parameterizations
 Assimilation of high-resolution data (including radar and other
observations)
 Verification based on remote sensing data
 Societal Impacts
... all these issues to be discussed at kick-off meeting.
Meso-scale Working Group
Tokyo Metropolitan Area
Convection Field Campaign
Masahito Ishihara and Kazuo Saito
Meteorological Research Institute, Japan
and
Masayuki Maki
National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster
Prevention, Japan
with courtesy of Dr. Shigeto Watanabe
Graduate School of Science, Hokkaido University, Japan
Meso-scale Working Group
Social Experiments on Resilient Cities for Extreme Weather
Several types of deep convection develop in the
Tokyo Metropolitan area during the warm
season.
Theme 1： Field Experiments
【Meteorology】
To obtain new insight on mechanisms of extreme weather
(1) Development of new technologies
(2) Field campaign in the Tokyo area (3) Statistical analysis
New observation facilities
Theme 2: Monitoring and Very-short Forecasting
System
Field campaign in the
Tokyo Metropolitan area
Understanding the
mechanism
Theme 3： Social Experiments
【Engineering】
【Sociology】
Developments collaborating with end users
(1) Extreme weather nowcasting methods
(2) Development of test-beds of nowcasting systems
(3) Extreme weather database
Monitoring/Nowcasting
Evaluation and adaption the developed nowcasting system
(1) Social experiments in rescue services, risk management,
infrastructure and education
(2) Recommendations for extreme weather resilient cities
System
Hazard Map
Nowcasting
Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR)
Forecast verification method intercomparison project (ICP)
Several members of the JWGFVR have participated in the ICP, which is
an effort to provide useful information on new verification approaches
that have been developed in the last few years. The initial focus has
been on spatial verification approaches, including object-based
methods, scale separation approaches, neighborhood methods, and
field morphing approaches. The results of these studies will be published
as a special collection in the journal Weather and Forecasting.
Outreach and other activities
The JWGFVR continues to maintain a website on verification:
http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/staff/eee/verif/verif_web_page.html
which contains a wide variety of information, and to maintain a
discussion group on verification methods.
Verification of Tropical Cyclone
Forecasts
Beth Ebert (BOM)
Barb Brown (NCAR)
Laurie Wilson (RPN)
Tony Eckel (ERT)
8th TIGGE Working Group Meeting
22-24 February 2010, Geneva
New approaches for verifying TCs
• Spatial verification methods
Precipitation and
wind fields
Storm characteristics
• location
• size
• intensity
• shape, etc.
Document on TC verification – commented literature
review to be written this year
Contents
1. Introduction
2. Verification strategy
3. Reference data
4. Verification methods
5. Reporting guidelines
6. Summary
References
Appendices:
a. Brief description of scores
b. Guidelines for computing aggregate
statistics
c. Confidence intervals for verification scores
d. Examples of graphical verification products
CXML data exchange
Recommendations from 2006 International
Workshop on Tropical Cyclones
The WMO should take all necessary action to:
•
improve the communication between operational centres and facilitate the dissemination
of all tropical cyclone-related NWP products, such as the deterministic and ensemble
forecasts (including the full set of ensemble runs),
•
make them available to all RSMCs, TCWCs and researchers in real-time.
WMO should investigate the most appropriate ways to achieve this goal:
•
coordinate with the NWP and major operational centres (RSMCs and TCWCs) in order to
define a set of resolvable tropical cyclone characteristics to be provided and timely
disseminated by the NWP centres through the GTS (e.g. centre location, minimum sea level
pressure, max wind, wind radii by quadrants, etc…) and define the appropriate
standardised format,
•
and/or find a WMO-sponsored dedicated reference centre (similarly to what has been
done with the Severe Weather Information Centre for the dissemination of the analysis and
forecast products issued by the main operational centres) able to host and maintain a
single global data base of the tropical cyclone forecasts originating from the different
NWP centres.
Near real time cyclone data exchange
• Data exchanged via FTP (some sites require registration)
• TC data archived at NCAR at http://dss.ucar.edu/datasets/ds330.3/
under 'Data Access' and 'Internet Download'
• Data format is CXML (Cyclone XML), designed to exchange TC
analyses, deterministic forecasts, and ensemble forecasts,
http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/projects/THORPEX/TC
CXML track availability – 11 Feb 2010
Provider
Analysis
Deterministic
Ensemble

CMA
t=0 fcst
MSC
t=0 fcst
KMA
t=0 fcst

STI
t=0 fcst

UKMO
t=0 fcst

JMA
t=0 fcst


NCEP
t=0 fcst





ECMWF


Up to date?
Tropical Meteorological Research
An update of possible consequences of climate change on tropical cyclones has
been completed and published by the TC Panel’s Expert Team on Climate
Change Impacts on Tropical Cyclones in the March 2010 issue of the peerreviewed journal Nature Geoscience. The experts concluded that the total
number of tropical cyclones worldwide will likely either decrease or remain
unchanged. However, a likely increase in tropical cyclone intensity means that
the frequency of the strongest tropical cyclones will more likely than not
increase under the projected warming scenarios. The e-print of the full article is
now available online at:
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/tmr/ETClimateImpactsOnTCs.html
Tropical Meteorological Research
Relative to improvements in tropical cyclone tracks, progress in the prediction of
the intensity and genesis of tropical cyclones by NWP systems has proven
more difficult. Recent progress has been achieved by increasing model
resolution. In addition, based on THORPEX research, there is strong evidence
that targeted observations for tropical cyclones do have a beneficial impact and
the resultant socio-economic benefit here can be large.
To address these issues, TCP is working closely with WWRP to promote the
research and developments (R&Ds) in tropical cyclone prediction and its
application to operational forecasting. The two Programmes jointly organize
various international forums on a regular basis with a view to strengthening the
interactions between researchers and operational forecasters, including the
International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone (IWTC) and the International
Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes (IWTCLP). Efforts are also
made for active involvement of researchers in the annual/biennial sessions of
TCP regional bodies.
Tropical Meteorological Research
The monsoon component has recently added three archive centres:
1. Centre for Monsoon Field Campaign Legacy Data Sets (Colorado State
University, USA)
2. Monsoon Radar Meteorology Data Information Centre Radar Information
Centre (Nagoya University, Japan)
3. Monitoring and Centre for Monitoring and Assessment System for Extreme
Weather and Climate Events in Asia (Beijing Climate Centre-EAMAC, CMA)
Seventh International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VII)
(15-20 November 2010, La Réunion, France)
The IWTC is one of WMO’s major
quadrennial workshop series organized by
WWRP and Tropical Cyclone Programme
(TCP). It is a special and unique gathering
of tropical cyclone researchers and warning
specialists from all regions affected by
tropical cyclones, including those from
Members belonging to the WMO TCP
regional bodies.
La Réunion, France
The main objectives of these workshops are:
1) to examine current knowledge, forecasting and research trends on tropical
cyclones from an integrated global perspective
2) to report on these aspects and to offer recommendations for future
forecasting studies and research with special regard to the varying needs of
different regions.
2nd Meeting of the WMO/CAS Expert Team on Weather
Modification Research (ET-WMR)
National Center of Meteorology and Seismology (NCMS)
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE)
22-24 March 2010
Seek support for a “WMO Expert Meeting on a Scientific
Review of the Statement on Weather Modification” and organize
a meeting in Geneva scheduled for October 2010.
Seek ET-WMR advice and plan a meeting to draft a statement
on “lessons learned” on geo-engineering by the WMR
community.
10th WMO Scientific Conference and Forum on Weather
Modification (2012, Indonesia)
Bull. Amer. Met. Soc.,
October 2010
•
Toward a seamless process for the prediction of weather and climate: the advancement of sub-seasonal
to seasonal prediction
Brunet, G., M. A. Shapiro, B. Hoskins, M. Moncrieff, R. Dole, G. N. Kiladis, B. Kirtman, A. Lorenc, B. Mills, R.
Morss, S. Polavarapu, D. Rogers, J. Schaake, and J. Shukla.
•
Addressing the complexity of the Earth system
Nobre, Carlos, Guy P. Brasseur, Melvyn A. Shapiro, Myanna Lahsen, Gilbert Brunet, Antonio J. Busalacchi,
Kathy Hibbard, Kevin Noone and Jean Ometto.
•
An Earth-system prediction initiative for the 21st century
Shapiro, Melvyn A., Jagadish Shukla, Gilbert Brunet, Carlos Nobre, Michel Béland, Randall Dole, Kevin
Trenberth, Richard Anthes, Ghassem Asrar, Leonard Barrie, Philippe Bougeault, Guy Brasseur, David
Burridge, Antonio Busalacchi, Jim Caughey, Delaing Chen, John Church, Takeshi Enomoto, Brian Hoskins,
Øystein Hov, Arlene Laing , Hervé Le Treut, Jochem Marotzke, Gordon McBean, Gerald Meehl, Martin
Miller, Brian Mills, John Mitchell, Mitchell Moncrieff, Tetsuo Nakazawa, Haraldur Olafsson, Tim Palmer,
David Parsons, David Rogers, Adrian Simmons, Alberto Troccoli, Zoltan Toth, Louis Uccellini, Christopher
Velden and John M. Wallace.
•
Toward a new generation of world climate research and computing facilities
Shukla, J., T.N. Palmer, R. Hagedorn, J. Kinter, J. Marotzke, M. Miller and J. Slingo