Transcript AGREPS – ACCESS Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System Michael Naughton, David Smith, Asri Sulaiman Bureau of Meteorology CAWCR Earth System Modelling Program GIFS-TIGGE WG Meeting,

AGREPS – ACCESS Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction
System
Michael Naughton, David Smith,
Asri Sulaiman
Bureau of Meteorology
CAWCR Earth System Modelling Program
GIFS-TIGGE WG Meeting, June 2013
UK Met Office
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
AGREPS – ACCESS ensemble prediction system
24-member ensemble designed for medium-range and
short-range forecasting
• Based on UKMO MOGREPS
• Global ensemble to 10 days
• Regional ensemble over Australian Region
to 3 days
• Global ETKF for initial condition perts
• Stochastic model perturbations
HI-RES 4km
ACCESS-R 12 km
ACCESS-G 40km (N320) – 25km (N512)
AGREPS-R 24 km
AGREPS-G 80km (N144) – 60km (N216)
Currently running at 60 km & 37.5 km
AGREPS current status
• APS0 AGREPS global and Australian regional systems at 80km (N144) & 37.5km L50 based on UM 6.4
ran from Jan 2011 to Mar 2013 (without model perturbations)
• APS1 AGREPS global system at 60km (N216) L70 based on UM 7.6 has been from start of 2012, running
daily since November 2012 (includes SKEB2 model perturbations)
• APS1 AGREPS has been compared with APS0 version and overseas ensemble systems
• Operational implementation of AGREPS is planned, timing still dependent on resourcing
AGREPS plans
• Ensembles will be key element of data assimilation through provision of capability for flow-dependent
error covariances; we plan to incorporate Met Office hybrid DA approach into future ACCESS NWP
suites
• Ensembles for high resolution ACCESS systems are also planned
Verification – Spread-skill T850
AGREPS N216 v N144
T850
December 2012
Verification – Spread-skill T850
AGREPS N216 EM
cf
ACCESS-G N320
T850
April 2013
Verification – Spread-skill c.f. other centres
AGREPS N216
ECMWF
NCEP
JMA
T850
August 2012
Southern Hemisphere