Transcript Quantifying the Digital Divide from an Internet Point of View Les CottrellSLAC, Aziz RehmatullahNIIT, Jerrod WilliamsSLAC, Akbar KhanNIIT Presented at the Optimization Technologies for.

Quantifying the Digital Divide from an
Internet Point of View
Les CottrellSLAC,
Aziz RehmatullahNIIT, Jerrod WilliamsSLAC, Akbar KhanNIIT
Presented at the Optimization Technologies for Low-Bandwidth
Networks, ICTP Workshop, Trieste, Italy, 9-20 October 2006
http://www.slac.stanford.edu/grp/scs/net/talk06/digital-divide-oct06.ppt
Prolog: Internet growth
• Internet use, performance & coverage exploding
– > 1Billion users
– In 2004 users in China 6 => 78Million
– Traffic through Amsterdam increased fourfold in 2005
– CERN-US connection 9.6kbsp ’85 to 10Gbits/s today
– Typical backbone bandwidths (including transoceanic)
2.5 – 10Gbits for developed world
Prolog: New Technologies
• The transition to the use of "dense wavelength
division multiplexing" (DWDM) to support multiple
optical links on a single fiber has made these links
increasingly affordable, and this has resulted in a
substantially increased number of these links
coming into service.
• At the end nodes the commoditization of Gigabit
and 10 Gigabit Ethernet, new buses, and faster
cpus are driving performance higher and costs
lower.
Prolog: Developing world
• The Global Ring Network for Advanced Applications Development
(GLORIAD[5]) project is providing high speed connectivity especially
for Russia and China 10GBps around globe by Mar ’07);
• The Trans-Eurasia Information Network (TEIN2[6]) is improving the
connectivity of the Asia Pacific region;
• The Latin America Cooperation of Advanced Networks (CLARA[7])
and the Western Hemisphere Research and Education Networks
(WHREN[8]) Links Interconnecting Latin America (LILA) projects are
bringing Gbits/s to Latin America;
• EUMEDConnect[9] is improving connectivity to the Mediterranean;
• The East African Submarine System (EASSy[10]) is bringing fibre to
the E. coast of Africa;
• Four Southern African National Research and Education Networks
(NRENS) in Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda and South Africa
have come together to found the Ubuntunet[11] Alliance for Research
and Education Networking with the goal of delivering Gigabits/s
connectivity to their countries and the rest of the world.
Introduction
• PingER project originally (1995) for measuring
network performance for US, Europe and Japanese
HEP community
• Extended this century to measure Digital Divide
• Last year added monitoring sites in S. Africa,
Pakistan & India
• Will report on network performance to these regions
from US and Europe – trends, comparisons
• Plus early results within and between these regions
PingER Methodology
Monitoring
host
Internet Remote
Host
(typically
a server)
Data Repository @ SLAC
Measure Round Trip Time & Loss
PingER coverage
• ~120 countries (99%
world’s connected
population), 35 monitor
sites in 14 countries
• New monitoring sites in
Cape Town,
Rawalpindi, Bangalore
• Monitor 25 African
countries, contain 83%
African population
Minimum RTT from US
•
•
•
•
Maps show increased coverage
Min RTT indicates best possible, i.e. no queuing
>600ms probably geo-stationary satellite
Between developed regions min-RTT dominated by distance
– Little improvement possible
• Only a few places still using satellite, mainly Africa & Central Asia
– E. African Submarine System (EASSy)
2000
2006
Effect of Losses
• Losses critical, cause multi-second timeouts
• Typically depend on a bad link, so ~distance
independent
• > 4-6% video-conf irritating, non-native language
speakers unable to communicate
• > 4-5% irritating for interactive telnet, X windows
• >2.5% VoIP annoying every 30 seconds or so
• Burst losses of > 1% slightly annoying for VoIP
Losses from SLAC to world
• # hosts monitored increased seven-fold
• Increase in fraction with good loss
– Despite adding more hosts in developing world
>=12%
>=5% <12%
>=2.5% < 5%
>=1% < 2.5%
< 1%
Loss Improvement by Population
• Loss by country weighted by population of country
Unreachability from SLAC
• All pings of a set fail ≡ unreachable
• Shows fragility, ~ distance independent
• Developed regions US, Canada, Europe, Oceania lead
– Factor of 10 improvement in 8 years
• Africa, S. Asia followed by L. America worst off
World thruput seen from US
Throughput ~
1460Bytes /
(RTT*sqrt(loss))
Behind Europe
6 Yrs: Russia,
Latin America
7 Yrs: Mid-East,
SE Asia
10 Yrs: South Asia
11 Yrs: Cent. Asia
12 Yrs: Africa
South Asia,
Central Asia, and
Africa are in
Danger of Falling
Even Farther
Behind
Compare to US residence
• Sites in many countries have bandwidth< US residence
S. Asia & Africa from US
• Data v. noisy but
there are
noticeable trends
• India may be
holding its own
• Africa & Pakistan
are falling behind
Pakistan
India to India
• Monitoring host in Bangalore from Oct ’05
– Too early to tell much, also need more sites, have some good
contacts
• 3 remote hosts (need to increase):
– R&E sites in Mumbai, Pune & Hyderabad
– Government site in AP
• Lot of difference between sites, Gov. site sees heavy
Average - Minimum RTT from Banglore
400
congestion
Govt of. AP
350
Hyderabad, AP
Mumbai, Maharashtra
250
200
150
100
50
6-Feb
7-Jan
8-Dec
8-Nov
0
9-Oct
RTT ms
300
Pakistan to Pakistan
• 3 monitoring sites in Islamabad/Rawalpindi
– NIIT via NTC, NIIT via Micronet, NTC (PERN supplier)
– All monitor 7 Universities in ISB, Lahore, KHI, Peshawar
• Careful: many University sites have proxies in US & Europe
• Minimum RTTs: best NTC 6ms, NIIT/NTC 10ms - extra
4ms for last mile, NIIT/Micronet 60ms – slower links
different routes
• Queuing = Avg(RTT)-Min(RTT) 500
450
Avg - Min RTT from 3 monitoring Sites in Pakistan to
Pakistan
The PingER Project:
http://www-iepm.slac.stanford.edu/pinger/
• 200-400ms queuing
– Better when students holiday
– NIIT/Micronet & NTC OK
– Outages show fragility
RTT ms
– NIIT/NTC heavily congested
Median NIIT N2
Median NTC
Median NIIT N4
400
350
NIIT
300
250
200
150
100
Holiday
50
0
1-Dec 11-Dec 21-Dec 31-Dec 10-Jan 20-Jan 30-Jan
Pakistan Network Fragility
Remote host outages
NIIT/NTC
NTC
NIIT outage
NIIT/NTC heavily congested
Other sites OK
NIIT/Micronet
Pakistan International fragility
RTT ms
Loss %
• Typically once a month losses go to 20%
Feb05 Another fiber outage, this time of 3 hours!
Power cable dug up by excavators of
Karachi Water & Sewage Board
Jul05
Fiber cut off Karachi
causes 12 day outage JunJul ’05, Huge losses of
confidence and business
• Infrastructure appears fragile
• Losses to QEA & NIIT are 3-8% averaged over month
Routing from S Africa
Many
systemic factors:
Electricity, Import duties,
Skills, disease
915M people 14% world
population, 2.2% of world
Internet users
•
•
•
•
Seen from ZA
Only Botswana & Zimbabwe are direct
Most go via Europe or USA
Wastes costly international bandwidth
Satellites vs Terrestrial
• Terrestrial links via SAT3 & SEAMEW (Mediterranean)
• Terrestrial not available to all within countries
PingER min-RTT measurements from
S. African TENET monitoring station
2006
Between Regions
• Red ellipses show
within region
• Blue = min(RTT)
• Red = min-avg RTT
• India/Pak green
ellipses
• ZA heavy congestion
– Botswana, Argentina,
Madascar, Ghana, BF
• India better off than
Pak
Overall (Aug 06)
•
•
•
•
•
~ Sorted by Average throughput
Within region performance better (black ellipses)
Europe, N. America, E. Asia generally good
M. East, Oceania, S.E. Asia, L. America acceptable
Africa, C. Asia, S. Asia poor
UNDP Human
Development
Index (HDI)
•
•
•
A long and healthy life, as measured by life
expectancy at birth
Knowledge, as measured by the adult literacy rate
(with two-thirds weight) and the combined primary,
secondary and tertiary gross enrolment ratio (with
one-third weight)
A decent standard of living, as measured by GDP per
capita.
UNDP
Technology
Achievement
Index (TAI)
• Less coverage
(50 countries vs.
96 HDI )
• Linear fit (both
variables
technology
related)
• Better fit, fewer
outliers
• Creation of technology (e.g. patents, royalties);
• diffusion of recent innovations (Internet
hosts/capita, high & medium tech export);
• Diffusion of old innovations (log phones/capita,
log of electric consumption/capita);
• Human skills (years of schooling, enrollment in
tertiary level in science, math & engineering).
Why does it
matter:
Science
• Scientists cannot collaborate as equal partners unless they
have connectivity to share data, results, ideas etc.
• Distance education needs good communication for access
to libraries, journals, educational materials, video, access
to other teachers and researchers.
Why does it matter: Business
•G8 specifically pledged support for African higher education and
research by “Helping develop skilled professionals for Africa's
private and public sectors, through supporting networks of
excellence between African's and other countries' institutions of
higher education and centres of excellence in science and
technology institutions” G8 specifically pledged support for African
higher education and research by “Helping develop skilled professionals
for Africa's private and public sectors, through supporting networks of
excellence between African's and other countries' institutions of higher
education and centres of excellence in science and technology Prahalad and Hart
institutions”
Traditional MNC
Business Model
•Saturating western markets
•High growth IT markets: BRIC
•NOT business as usual
– New business models
– Distinct needs
– Dearth of distribution channels
>$20K per year
75 to 100 million people
Some MNCs
>$1,500 - 20K per year
1.5 to 1.75 billion people
Local Firms
Future
Opportunity?
<$1,500 per year
4 billion people
What can we do?
• The worldwide science and education community is in a unique
position to facilitate persistent, non-threatening dialog and increased
cooperation between nations that have often been at odds.
• Has a track record:
– first permanent Internet connection to mainland China[1];
– initiating the "Silk Road" satellite system[2] to bring connectivity to central Asia;
– upgrading connectivity to Brazil; leading the installation and demonstrating the
first 622 Mbps connection to India;
– the efforts of the International Committee for Future Accelerators (ICFA)
Standing Committee on Inter-regional Connectivity (SCIC[3]);
– and the free eJournals delivery service[4] of the Abdus Salam International
Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) etc
• [1] “Networking with China”, R. L. A. Cottrell, C. Granieri, L. Fan, R. Xu, Y. Karita,
CHEP04, Japan, also SLAC-PUB-6478, Aug 1994
• [2] See http://www.silkproject.org/
• [3] See http://cern.ch/icfa-scic/
• [4] See http://www.ejds.org/
• Extend PingER coverage, contacts for more monitoring & remote
sites, [email protected], [email protected]
Need contacts, can you help?
• Need monitoring sites in Africa (only have S. Africa)
• Remote sites in:
– Africa:
•
•
•
•
•
All central African countries
E. Africa: Ethiopia, Somalia, Tanzania, Zimbabwe
N Africa: Libya
W Africa: Gambia, Guinea, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Togo
S Africa: Swaziland
– L America
• Bolivia, Chile, Columbia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Honduras, Nicaragua, Paraguay
– Mid East
• Iraq, Palestine, Syria
– SE Asia
• Cambodia, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam
– S. Asia
• Bangladesh
Conclusions
• S. Asia and Africa ~ 10 years behind and falling
further behind creating a Digital Divide within a
Digital Divide
• India appears better than Africa or Pakistan
• Last mile problems, and network fragility
• Decreasing use of satellites, still needed for many
remote countries in Africa and C. Asia
– EASSy project will bring fibre to E. Africa
• Growth in # users 2000-2005 400% Africa, 4000%
Pakistan networks not keeping up
• Need more sites in developing regions and longer
time period of measurements
More information
• Acknowledgements:
– Harvey Newman and ICFA/SCIC for a raison d’etre,
ICTP for contacts and education on Africa, NIIT/Pakistan
for code development for PingER, USAID
MoST/Pakistan for development funding
• PingER
– www-iepm.slac.stanford.edu/pinger
• Human Development
– http://www.gapminder.org/