Transcript Migration Statistics in Russian Federation: basic problems and possible solutions Olga Chudinovskikh Moscow State University [email protected].

Migration Statistics in Russian
Federation:
basic problems and possible solutions
Olga Chudinovskikh
Moscow State University
[email protected]
Des données statistques sur des migrations internes n'existent
pas même dans des pays où une collècte des statistiques
démographiques est bien organisée...., les migrations
internationales sont mesurées très approximativement, et un
enregistrement des migrations internes est encore pire.
(Roland Pressat L'Analyse Démographique. Méthodes,
résultats, applications. PUF, Paris, 1961)
«Статистические данные о внутренних миграциях
отсутствуют часто даже в таких странах, где
демографическая статистика хорошо поставлена,…
международные миграции измеряются очень
приближенно, а миграция внутри страны
учитывается еще хуже» (Пресса Р. Народонаселение и
его изучение. Демографический анализ), М. 1966,, с.10).
Plan
1. Basic problems of RF statistics of migration
2. General scheme of national systems of
migration data collection in RF – assessment of
quality and accessibility
3. Annual (current) statistics of migration –
changes in migration identification criterion as
the reason of low quality of data.
4. Refugees and asylum seekers, labour migrants,
border statistics.
5. Reasons and consequences of contemporary
situation in migration data collection in RF
6. Possible ways out and solutions
Main migration data systems in Russia
Authority
2-11- parts of Central data bank of foreigners (in future)
Quality of data and
methodology
Availability
1
Current statistics of migrants (based on
registration procedure) – both foreign and
internal flows
Ministry of home
affairs/ Federal
statistics service
Unsatisfactory,
considerable
underestimation
Available
2
Data on permits on arrival for residence
(foreigners) and departure for residence (Russian
citizens)
Ministry of home affairs
Moderate. Not processed
since 2002.
Was partially
available
up to 2002
3
Data on refugees and asylum seekers
Ministry of home affairs
(Federal migration
service- FMS)
Satisfactory
Available
4
Data on work permits for foreign employees and
Russian citizens l employed abroad via
Russian employment agencies
Ministry of home affairs
(FMS)
Unsatisfactory,
considerable
underestimation
Available
5
Data on residence permits and permissions for
temporary residence
Ministry of home affairs
(FMS)
No information on
methodology
Not available
6
Migration cards statistics
Ministry of home affairs
(FMS)
No information on
methodology
Not available
7
Border statistics
Federal security service
(Federal Border Service)
No information on
methodology
Partially
available
Data on foreign students
Ministry of science and
education
Satisfactory
Available
9
Visas and invitations statistics
Ministry of foreign
affairs
No information on
methodology
Not available
10
Ministry of Taxes data
Ministry of Taxes
No information on
methodology
Not available
11
Population Census
Federal statistics service
Satisfactory
Available
8
Basic problems in the sphere of migration
data sources in RF
• Main data source - annual (current) statistics of migration (based on
registration) – has no adequate primary data for processing , new
alternative systems were not created yet or are at the first stage of creation.
• Other sources of data are involved into operation, as a rule they do not
satisfy criteria of reliability or accuracy.
• Major part of sample surveys are incomparable or not representative.
• Open official statistics is substituted with closed administrative sources of
data, whose principles of data collecting and processing are obscure and
quality of information can not be estimated.
• Russian Federation does not have national system of migration data
collection which can provide reliable information on situation in general.
There is an obvious and increasing lack in reliable data about flows and
socio-demographic parameters of migrants. Incomplete data became
probably the only source of information about migrants.
№ of the
question
Primary information source of current statistics –”Coupon of statistical
enumeration of a migrant” (Statistical form № 12)*
1,2,3
Name, patronymic and surname
12
Reason for move (9 variants)
4
Date of birth
13
Sphere of occupation in the previous place
of residence (15 variants).
5
Place of birth (detailed)
14
Kind of job in the previous place of
residence (5 variants)
6
Sex
15
Kind of social welfare in the previous place
of residence(for people of post-labour ages)
7
Citizenship
Ethnicity
16
Education (6 variants)
17
Marital status (4 variants)
New place of residence
18
If before migration had lived with family
than arrived with …(all family members, part
8
9
(full address)
of the family, alone, had lived alone )
10
Previous place of
residence (detailed)
19
If a part of the family already lives in the
place of destination (yes or no)
11
Have lived in the previous place of residence
since________(year)
20
Name, sex and date of birth of children
under 14 (if arrived with adult migrant)
* red font – Processed data
21
Date of filling in the form (date of
registration)
Changes in migrants’
identification criteria:
•
Before 1996- period of stay not less that 45 days, person must cross the border of administrative
unit within Russia (internal migration) or RF border
Criteria -time and space + place of residence (same methodology used both for RF citizens and
foreigners- former USSR citizens)-. Temporary and permanent registration.
• Since 1996 (new rules of RF citizens registration)– Two types of registration :
by place of residence (migrants are included into stat. observation) and
by place of stay (not included into stat. observation) , before 2002 – no limits of prolongation of
registration (180 days each), since 2002 – foreigners are registered only for 90 days (12 months
legal labour migrant). Police accumulates data only about number of registrations not migrants,
(and does not estimate separately primary registrations and prolongations).
Primary document (Form #12) is filled in only for migrants registered by place of residence Criterion - place of official residence
What happened to foreign migration registration? Reasons of flows underestimation.
• 1997 – Special decision of Government - rules (1995) are officially proliferated on foreign
citizens
• 2000. X. - foreigners need to get residence permit to be registered (many migrants are excluded
from observation),
• 2002- New Law on foreigners’ status – foreigners should not be observed by current statistics
(theoretically)- (additional criterion – citizenship). May 2002 - Decision of 1997 is officially
abolished.
Influence of criteria change on estimated
volumes of foreign migration in Russian
Federation (Current statistics data, persons)
400000
350000
In-migration
300000
Out-migration
250000
Net-migration
200000
150000
100000
50000
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Underestimation of migration by Federal
statistics. Pattern of foreign educational
migration. Persons.
19000
17000
15000
13000
11000
9000
7000
5000
3000
1000
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Goskomstat data on educational migrants from abroad
Ministry of education data on accepted foreign students (secondary professional and higher
schools)
2002
Typical mistakes in primary
information collection
• Primary forms are not filled in for some migrants
which must be included into statistical observation.
• Vice versa: forms are filled in for people, who
should not be included into observation (newborn
children, people getting new or changing old
passports, residential mobility)
• Primary forms partially are not forwarded to statistics
bureaus
• Children under 14 y. o. are included into forms of
both parents
• Questions left without answers,
• Inaccuracy in answers
Reasons of annual statistics
unsatisfactory quality
• Underestimation of arrivals
 Wrong migrants identification criterion – migrants with
«temporary» registration are excluded from estimation.
 Foreign citizens (theoretically) are excluded from estimation
(since 2002) according to new rules of registration
 Absence of unified methodology of migrants registration all
over the country.
 Long-term labour and educational migrants are excluded from
statistical observation - published data on reasons for move
do not reflect real situation (are incorrect).
• Underestimation of departures
Reasons for move
(current statistics of migration)
International
migration (arrivals)
Year
Internal migration
1997
2003
1997
2003
3,6%
2,7%
12,9%
9,1%
17,6%
5,9%
19,1%
11,6%
9,4%
12,5%
16,0%
17,1%
12,7%
5,2%
0,5%
0,1%
Increase in crime
0,9%
0,3%
0,1%
0,0%
Ecological troubles
0,5%
0,2%
0,2%
0,2%
Climate
0,3%
0,3%
0,3%
0,3%
49,8%
66,6%
45,1%
56,2%
5,3%
6,3%
5,8%
5,5%
Education
Job
Previous place of residence
Ethnic conflicts aggravation
Private and family reasons
Other reasons
Categories of foreign migrants covered by Census2002 program
Full census program (questionnaire) covered:
1. Foreign citizens and stateless persons – residents of
Russian Federation
2. Persons officially employed in RF (in Russian and
foreign organizations and enterprises) and students - if
intended to stay in Russia for more that 1 year
3. Asylum seekers
Short census program covered:
1. Foreign residents who stayed in Russia temporarily and
intended to stay here less than for 1 year
2. Tourists, patients in hospitals, private guests, transit
migrants
Main results – 1 mln – citizens of foreign countries, 1,3 mlndid not identify citizenship, 40 thous. – have double
citizenship.
Questions related to migration in the Census-2002
program
• Place of birth
• Citizenship
• Had lived in the place of residence since birth /
not since birth
• If not – since what year
• Arrived from: rural or urban area
• Where lived in 1989
Statistics of forced migrants and asylum
seekers:
2002
including:
Forced
migrants
total
Total
•
20504
Accumulated figures of registered
migrants by 1 January 2004 since
beginning of registration
2003
including:
forced resettlers
refuge
es
20453
51
Forced
migrant
s total
4726
including
forced
resettlers
refuge
es
4668
58
Forced
migrants
total
360796
forced resettlers (since 1
July 1992)
refugees
(since 20
March
1993)
352071
•
•
•
•
•
•
Previous place of residence (accumulated and registered during the year under
review)
New place of residence (RF regions)
Number of applications for refugee status
Number of refugees by place of origin and place of destination
Age and sex composition
Level of education
Ethnicity
•
Etc.
8725
Labour migration statistics –visible part of
an iceberg, (both in- and out migration)
(2003 - 378.000 work permits,
stock of irregular migrants - appr. 2 - 5
mln)
Basic problems (besides underestimation of
flow):
• Some categories of foreign citizens are not
included into estimation (Byelorussians)
• Primary work permits and prolonged permits
are not estimated separately
• Duration of contract is not estimated
Labour migration statistics (available
tables and data), defined by Goskomstat
decision (2001)
Foreign workers in RF
Age and sex structure
II. Volume of foreign workers by
countries of origin
III. Distribution of foreign workers
by spheres of occupation and
countries of origin
IV. Distribution of foreign workers
by forms of contract.
V. Distribution of foreign workers by
forms of employment in RF
VI. Distribution of foreign workers
by spheres of national economy.
I.
RF citizens employed
abroad
I. Age and sex structure of RF citizens
employed abroad
II. Distribution of RF workers by
countries of destination, level of
education, period of employment
according to contract.
III. Distribution of RF citizens by
categories of employment
IV. Distribution of RF citizens
employed abroad by forms of
occupation
V. Professional composition of RF
citizens employed abroad
Available (published) Border statistics:
Foreign citizens’ purposes of trip and countries of origin/
destination
Country of
origin /
(destination)
Total (entries /
(departures)
2002
Purpose of trip (entries)
Service
Tourism
Private
Reside
nce
Transit
Assistant
personnel
Total
3014159
3105563
15159067
12338
524335
1493249
23308711
1246973
578249
13951382
11711
429592
838786
17056693
49667
15631
95602
370
23721
12501
197492
119710
36677
2499082
5425
114599
180500
2955993
Citizens of :
CIS and Baltic
countries:
Byelorussia
Kazakhstan, etc.
Other countries:
….
RF Federal border service data on entries/
departures of foreign citizens, (millions)
Year
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Arrivals
18,9
21,2
21,6
23,3
22.5
Departures
14,3
17,9
18,7
20,9
20.6
Residual
4,5
3,3
2,9
2,4
1,9
Pseudo “Net migration” in exchange
with developed countries, RF Federal
Border service data (persons).
2000
2001
2002
Great Britain
-4526
-3983
2746
Germany
-20410
-7340
6452
USA
-9087
8753
2001
Finland
6035
-49821
- 16678
France
-1261
-438
- 9603
Sweden
4060
-505
2380
Japan
-4533
3085
596
Foreign citizens registration data bank
(Planned to be created by January 2006), Responsible
authority – Federal Migration service
Stage 1 (Ministry of home affairs data)
1.
Migration cards information on arrivals and departures of foreigners
2.
Data on refugees and asylum seekers
3.
Labour migrants data (work permits data)
Stage 2 (Ministry of home affairs data)
4.
Residence permits, temporary residence permits and stay permits
5.
Information on crimes committed against foreigners and by foreigners
Stage 3 (other ministries data)
6.
Federal border service data
7.
Visas and invitations statistics
8.
Customs Committee data
9.
Ministry of taxes data
10. Other ministries and authorities data on foreigners
Stage 4
Information exchange and distribution (rules are not defined)
Main considerations which must be taken
into account when introducing new systems of
data collection
•
The overall feasibility of the introduction of the new data collecting system or
the change of the existing one
• The cost related to the change or introduction of the new data collection
system or the change of the existing one
• The respect of national rules on legal, administrative and statistical aspects
• The consideration of national problematic related to international migration
and related national susceptibilities or sensibilities
• Interest from the side of the authorities (new data collection systems will not
be introduced in administrative rules unless they are required for
administrative purpose)
(Poulain M., Perrin N. Is the measurement of international migration flows
improving in Europe? GeDAP- Universite Catholique de Louvain, May 2001. ? , p.15)
One more consideration •
Readiness of personnel, responsible for data collecting or processing to work
under new conditions .
Why do we have such serious problems
in the sphere of migration statistics?
(Objective and subjective reasons)
• RF had no traditions in the field of international migration statistics.
• Permanent gap between a) legislation and institutional base and b)
demands of changing geo-political conditions.
• Lack of efficient control of data collection and processing quality
• Problems of financial, technical and cadre resources in the sphere of
migration data collection.
• Lack of co-operation between authorities responsible for different
systems of data collection.
• Deficit in co-operation with international experts and institutes in the
sphere of migration data collecting and implementation
• Absence of discussion between data collectors, processors and users in
Russian Federation
What are the consequences of situation
(possible and real) ?
Existing systems can hardly provide reliable information to
measure migration flows, describe their structure and
analyse their reasons and consequences.
Incompetent interpretation of data creates conditions for
speculations on irregular migration problem and influence
public opinion. It is one of the main reasons of limiting and
suppressive approaches in RF migration policy.
Lack of reliable statistical information leaves migration policy
without correct “landmarks”, causes growth of its costs
and risks.
Possible ways out and solutions
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
Legislation in the sphere of data collection, processing and
distribution must be revised and changed.
Migrants’ identification criteria must be revised, methodology of
current statistics collection should include all long-term migrants.
Special measures to exclude double count (if migrant changes his/
her status) must be worked out.
Creation of Foreign citizens central data bank must be widely
discussed with potential users.
Discussions between data collectors and users must become
regular, questions of data quality, overlapping and combination
should be professionally discussed.
Principles of data collection and processing within different
administrative data sources must be published.
Limitations in access to data and related information must be
revised.
Sample surveys should be possibly conducted to solve most
complicated problems of migration analysis.
“Comparability of international statistics is so
low that it frequently stops the development of
a correct analysis”.
(Poulain M., Perrin N.
Is the measurement of international migration flows improving
in Europe? 2001)
• Additional materials
Foreign migration in RF (Goskomstat data,
persons)
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
In-migration
379726
359330
193450
184612
129144
Out-migration
214963
145720
121166
106685
94018
Net-migration
164763
213610
72284
77927
35126
Migrations between Russia and former Soviet
Republics
(source-M.Denissenko)
1 400 000
changing in
the
registration
collapse of the USSR
1 200 000
1 000 000
800 000
600 000
400 000
200 000
0
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Immigrants
Emigrants