Transcript OECD Bilateral Trade Database - by Industry and by End-use (BTDIxE) S. Zhu, N.

OECD Bilateral Trade
Database - by Industry and
by End-use (BTDIxE)
S. Zhu, N. Yamano and A. Cimper
Directorate for Science Technology
and Industry
WPTGS – 8th November 2011
(Colin Webb)
Why BTDIxE ?
• To better understand structural changes in
international trade
• Contribute to analyses of global production
networks, regional integration etc. via linking of
national Input-Output tables e.g. work of CIIE
• Input into OECD Trade in Value Added project
• General tool for empirical analyses to address
policy issues in areas of Trade, Industry,
infrastructure, environment, innovation …
• Replaces existing OECD Bilateral Trade by
industry Database (BTD)
Coverage
• Exports and imports of goods, 1988-2010
• Countries (reporters and partners)
– 34 OECD countries
– 30 non-Members to cover (or complete) BRIICS / EU27
/ G20 / ASEAN9 / CEFTA
– Two additional partners = Rest of World and Unspecified
• Industries
– About 40 activities mainly covering agriculture, mining
and manufacturing: generally 2-digit ISIC Rev.3
+ 4 technology intensity groups
+ 8 categories of waste, scrap, recycled goods
End-use categories
SNA End-use categories
Intermediate inputs
Products characteristics
Primary
products
Processed
unfinished
Processed
finished
Final demand goods
Household consumption
Industrial capital goods
Other
Food and beverages (111)
Food and beverages (112)
Industrial supplies (21)
Fuels and lubricants (31)
Food and beverages (121)
Food and beverages (122)
Fuels and lubricants e.g. gasoline (32)
Industrial supplies (22)
Parts and components:
transport equipment (53)
Parts and components:
capital goods (42)
Packed medicaments (part of 63)
Non-industrial transport equipment (522)
Non durable consumer goods (63)
Semi-durable consumer goods (62)
Durable consumer goods for households (61)
Durable personal consumer goods e.g. personal computers (part of 61)
Mobile phones (part of 41)
Passenger motor cars (51)
Fixed line phones (part of 62)
Capital goods (41)
Industrial transport equipment (521)
Other
Goods n.e.c (7)
Broad Economic Categories (BEC) codes in parentheses
BTDIxE end-use categories
• 3 SNA end-use categories
– Intermediate inputs
– Household consumption
– Capital goods
• 5 mixed end-uses
–
–
–
–
–
packed medicaments
personal computers
passenger cars
phones (fixed and mobile)
valuables
+ other n.e.c
(fuels and lubricants currently allocated to intermediate goods)
Sources and Methods
• Source = OECD ITCS / UN Comtrade annual
merchandise trade statistics (HS 6 digit level =
approx. 5000 products)
• Standard conversion keys from HS to ISIC and HS to
End-use category (EUC) developed for each version
of HS (1988, 1996, 2002, 2007) and applied to data
according to reported HS. Thus, 8 conversion keys
• Specific adjustments for Hong Kong re-exports
• Treatment of confidential trade at 2-digit HS level
• Other adjustments (country specific)
Generation of conversion keys used for BTDIxE
via existing UNSD correspondence tables
To
ISIC Rev. 3
End use categories (EUC)
origin
via
origin
via
HS 1988
OECD
UNSD HS88 - HS96
UNSD HS96 - ISIC 3
OECD
HS 1996
UNSD
UNSD HS96 - ISIC3
OECD
*
UNSD HS96 - BEC (part)
HS 2002
OECD
UNSD HS02 - ISIC 3.1
UNSD ISIC 3.1 - ISIC 3
OECD
**
UNSD HS02 - BEC (part)
OECD
UNSD HS07 - HS02
UNSD HS02 - ISIC 3.1
UNSD ISIC 3.1 - ISIC 3
UNSD HS88 - HS96
OECD HS96 - EUC *
From
HS 2007
UNSD HS07 - BEC (part)
OECD
OECD HS02 - EUC ** (part)
UNSD HS07 - HS02
BEC (part): Certain HS products have been allocated to end-uses different to those implied
by UNSD HS BEC  end-use conversions
Confidential trade
• Some confidential trade at the 2-digit HS chapter level can
be allocated to ISIC and/or end-use
• Generally apparent as the difference between 2-digit HS
data and sum of 6-digit components
• In the past, such confidential trade, and other “special
transactions”, reported (in OECD ITCS) with codes
nnCF00 or nnEUxx – for 2-digit chapter nn
• Used less frequently in recent years and not present in the
‘official’ UNSD HS-HS, HS-ISIC, HS-BEC
correspondences (only regular HS 6-digit codes used)
• Therefore, in BTDIxE, differences between 2-digit and
sum(6-digit) data are calculated (code nnADJS) before
conversion keys applied
From products to industries and end-uses – examples
Product
(HS 2002)
Industry
(ISIC Rev. 3)
Flour
1101.00
1531
1 Intermediate demands
High Voltage fuse
8535.10
3120
1 Intermediate demands
Milk processed
0401.10
1520
2 Household consumption
Man/boy’s Shirt
6105.10
1810
2 Household consumption
Wearing apparel confidential
61CF.00
1810
2 Household consumption
Truck
8704.21
3410
3 Capital goods
Computer with unitary housing structure
8471.41
3000
5 Personal computers
Gasoline motor vehicle less than 1000cc
8703.21
3403
6 Passenger cars
…
…
Chemicals products confidential
37CF.00
2429
9 Others
Confidential trade
99EU.90
na
9 Others
Description
…
End-use category
…
Hong Kong re-exports
• Adjustments for Hong Kong re-exports to get better
estimates of bilateral flows to and from China
• Use re-exports by origin and destination from Hong
Kong Customs and Statistics Department
• Allows for China  Hong Kong  China case
Hong Re-exports - Top 10 flows 2010 as % of total re-exports
From
To
2000
2005
2010
China
China
6.4
17.0
23.9
China
USA
20.4
14.1
9.9
Japan
China
7.5
7.3
6.2
Chinese Taipei China
5.4
6.3
6.1
China
Japan
5.2
4.8
3.8
Korea
China
2.6
2.9
3.3
China
Germany
3.3
3.1
2.5
USA
China
3.4
2.2
2.3
Malaysia
China
1.2
1.7
2.1
China
UK
3.5
2.7
1.9
Other adjustments
Done
• Extending estimates for some reporters e.g.
– Belgium, 1988-92 : using Belgium-Luxembourg figures
– South Africa, 1992-99 : South Africa Customs Union (SACU)
– Chinese Taipei, from 2007: “Asia not elsewhere specified”
Desired
• Re-export adjustments for other major hubs such as Netherlands
and Singapore
• Country specific adjustments e.g. for UK to deal with distortions in
ICT trade (mid 2000s) due to EU VAT fraud
• Dealing with second-hand goods not identified in HS either for reuse e.g. transport equipment, or recycling e.g. discarded PCs
Next steps
• Finish comparisons between BTDIxE and similar results
from WIOD project
understand origins of any differences
• Finalise BTDIxE documentation and publish as OECD
STI Working Paper(s)
Zhu, Yamano and Cimper, 2011 (forthcoming)
• Release data on OECD.STAT
replacing existing BTD
• Use for inter-country I-O analyses (e.g. TiVA)
• Identify areas for improvement
• Dealing with ISIC Rev. 4
World trade by end-use, 1990-2010
Source: OECD BTDIxE, 2011 (total of imports)
14
World trade by category and by originating region 1995
1995
Personal computers & passenger cars
Capital goods
Mining and primary energy inputs
%
100
Household consumption
Other intermediate goods
Intermediate goods for assembly
80
60
40
20
0
USA
(557)
JPN
(434)
EU15
(1 886)
Other OECD CHN BRIIS
(677)
(148) (197)
ROW
(864)
Value of total exports, billions of USD, current exchange rates
Source: OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard, 2011
World trade by category and by originating region 2009
2009
Personal computers & passenger cars
Capital goods
Mining and primary energy inputs
%
100
Household consumption
Other intermediate goods
Intermediate goods for assembly
80
60
40
20
0
USA
(949)
JPN
(560)
EU15
(3 785)
Other OECD
(1 950)
CHN
(1 529)
BRIIS
(706)
Value of total exports, billions of USD, current exchange rates
Source: www.oecd.org/sti/scoreboard
ROW
(2 540)