Transcript EGS 3021F: Vulnerability to Environmental Change Gina Ziervogel ([email protected]) December 2011 This work by Gina Ziervogel is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike.

EGS 3021F: Vulnerability to Environmental Change
Gina Ziervogel ([email protected])
December 2011
This work by Gina Ziervogel is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License.
Adaptation
 Responding to climate change impacts is possible
 Humans can respond in anticipation
 Natural system can only adapt in response to change
Mitigation
 Decreasing emissions
 Protocols for decreasing emissions are in place
 More efficient energy use is possible

Adaptation is understood to be an
adjustment in the ecological, social or
economic systems in response to observed or
expected changes and their effects and
impacts in order to alleviate adverse impacts
or take advantage of new opportunities
(Adger et al, 2005)
Adaptation is a process of deliberate
change in anticipation of or in reaction to
external stimuli and stress
(Nelson et al, 2007)

The degree to which a system is susceptible
to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of
climate change, including climate variability
and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of
the character, magnitude, and rate of climate
variation to which a system is exposed, its
sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.
(www.ipcc.ch/pub/syrgloss.pdf )

Vulnerability enables a focus on agency and how
people are not passive recipients of climate
change
 People have caused it
 People can reduce exposure to it
 People can respond to the impacts

Many climate change vulnerability studies focus
on the risk and not the internal capacity
component of vulnerability
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about equity…linking climate change to
uneven development
concerns people…begin with the
humanitarian concerns for vulnerable socioeconomic groups
an integrating method…for targeting
adaptation
By Sean Wilson for SEI
By Sean Wilson for SEI
International action needs to be developed in
ways that support adaptive capacity and
resilience of vulnerable communities
(“Unjust Water” by Action Aid. Access paper at
http://www.actionaid.org.uk/doc_lib/unjust_waters.pdf )
(Eakin and Lemos, 2006:10)

By understanding vulnerability to climate
change it is possible to identify priority areas
for adaptation

Adaptation can then focus on
 Reducing exposure to the hazards
 Decreasing sensitivity to the hazard
 Increasing adaptive capacity to respond to the
hazard
•
Measures directly addressing climate change risks
• creating a new buffer zone in an area of increasing flood
risk
•
Measures addressing underlying causes of
vulnerability
• addressing barriers to accessing new farming
technologies such as drought resistant seeds
•
Measures building adaptive capacity
• strengthening the reliability of channels for sending
remittances
(Eriksen et al, 2008)
Mean Trends
Projection
Bounded
divergence
Risk
Surprise
Implement
adaptation
measures:
Water efficiency
Complex
Events
Plan adaptation strategies and
measures:
Coastal retreat
Extremes
Reduce vulnerability, monitor,
prepare:
Drought preparedness
Reduce
vulnerability:
Flood plain
restrictions
Worst case scenarios
Adaptation failure?
Emergency preparedness

Although there may be physical drivers, adaptation is
based on people and institutions

Aim of adaptation is to decrease vulnerability to
climate change
 Should support the goals of those most vulnerable

Development is about social change and capacity to
implement change

More than just consideration of climate in
development planning

Link to the climate science
 Historical trends
 Future scenarios

Cross-sectoral approach

Address longer time horizons
 As opposed to short policy horizons
 Environmental/social sustainability vs profit

Include bottom-up and top-down approaches
 Include information from those impacted
 About policy as well as practice

Whilst supporting short term poverty and
development agendas
 Maintain support
 Urgent needs
 Focus on opportunities to bring different stakeholders
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together
Recognise multiple goals
Identify key climate variables, thresholds &
uncertainties
Link to development priorities
Identify institutional challenges
By Gina Ziervogel
Anticipatory:
takes place before impacts of climate change
Reactive:
takes place after impacts of climate change are observed
Autonomous:
response due to change in environment or market, rather than
conscious response to climate change
Planned:
as a result of deliberate decision (may be prompted by policy)
Private:
by individuals, households and businesses
Public:
initiated by government at all levels
(www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg2/pdf/wg2TARchap18.pdf)
Context specific
Some adaptation is contextual and local
By Gina Ziervogel
One group of farmers needs drought-resistant seeds;
Another improved water saving techniques
Another, improved access to markets
[Anticipatory or reactive; private]
Some adaptation has no benefits, or costs exceed
benefits
By Gina Ziervogel
By Gina Ziervogel
Increasing the design standard of a road surface to cope
with increased rainfall intensity only has benefits if that
road experiences a storm of such magnitude
(meanwhile the costs are incurred at present)
[Anticipatory; public]
Some adaptation has immediate costs and delayed
benefits
By Gina Ziervogel
Building a reservoir with added capacity to cope with
increased flood volumes that are not expected for
30-50 years in the future
[Anticipatory; public]
Adger, N.W., Arnell, N.W. and Tompkins, E.L. 2005. Successful adaptation to climate
change across scales. Global Environmental Change, 15: 77-86
Eakin, H. and Lemos, M.C. 2006.Adaptation and the state: Latin America and the
challenge of capacity-building under globalization. Global Environmental Change
16(1): 7–18
Eriksen, S., O’Brien, K. and Rosentrater, L. 2008. Climate Change in Eastern and
Southern Africa: Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation. The International Project
Office of the Global Environmental Change and Human Security( GECHS) Report
2008:2. Can be accessed at www.gechs.org/publications/reports/
Nelson, D.R., Adger, N.W. and Brown, K. 2007. Adaptation to Environmental Change:
Contributions of a Resilience Framework. Annual Review of Environment and
Resources, Vol. 32.
All web links were checked in November 2011

Some slide material from Tom Downing, Stockholm
Environment Institute and GCAP