Transcript STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics Agenda Item 6b MONTHLY STATISTICS OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE (MSIT) – QUALITY REVIEW IMPLICATIONS AND SCOPE FOR MORE SYNERGIES WITH MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS.

STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Agenda
Item 6b
MONTHLY STATISTICS OF
INTERNATIONAL TRADE (MSIT) –
QUALITY REVIEW
IMPLICATIONS AND SCOPE FOR
MORE SYNERGIES WITH MAIN
ECONOMIC INDICATORS (MEI)
OECD progress report
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Background
•OECD publishes for many years the Monthly Statistics of
International Trade (MSIT) and the Main Economic
Indicators (MEI)
•MSIT is the detailed, specialized monthly publication
while trade totals are one of the many other MEI indicators
• Both publications produce different data
• This isssue was addressed in June 2007 in the context
of the quality reviews of ITCS and MSIT
• The CSTAT asked the Secretariat explicitly to
inviestigate posisble causes and to remedy – if possibleto this situation
2
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Factors explaining data differences
• Most importantly: different sources
• Sourcing or not from Eurostat
• Possible differences in data coverage,
such as the system of trade used
• Differences in exchange rate application
• Different seasonal adjustment practices
3
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Different sources
• The countries for which different sources are used are:
• For the 12 Euro zone countries, MEI uses Eurostat data while MSIT
uses national data, except for Greece where Eurostat is used as
source.
• Data for Korea, Switzerland and the United Kingdom are provided
by the National or Federal Statistical Offices for MEI and by
Customs for the MSIT publication.
• The same source is used for 15 countries
• Of which 6 countries are not a member of the EU (Australia, Canada,
Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, and the United States)
• Of which 6 countries are a member of the EU (Czech Republic,
Denmark, Hungary, Poland, Slovak Republic, and Sweden)
• Of which 3 countries are as EFTA members aligning with EU
(Iceland, Norway and Turkey)
See Table 1 in document ITS(2007)9, page 4
4
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Different methodologies EU - OECD
•
•
Trade statistics provided by Eurostat and the statistics compiled by the EU
Member States and sent to OECD using national concepts, are not always
directly comparable.
Other possible differences EU – OECD may be:
•
For arrivals of goods from other EU Member States, certain EU Member States
record the country of origin as the partner country in their national statistics,
whereas it is the EU Member State of consignment that appears in the
Community statistics relating to the same goods movement.
•
Treatment of goods in transit
•
Some EU Member States, particularly Belgium and the Netherlands do not
record goods, which they consider to be 'in transit'. This covers, firstly, the
import of goods from non-member countries which are customs cleared in
these EU Member States before being dispatched to other EU Member States
and, secondly, goods from other EU Member States which are then
immediately re-exported to EU non-member countries. These goods are
normally recorded for Community Statistics purposes under intra- or extra-EU
trade, as appropriate. This phenomenon is known as the 'Rotterdam effect'.
Other methodological differences can cause discrepancies between national
and Community statistics a well
•
5
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Updating cut-off time
• Both data collections use rolling updates;
• It is, hence, impossible to identify consistent
patterns in differences in timeliness by looking at
the online dissemination databases;
• Both databases are very close in this respect
anyway with sometimes MEI being a month
ahead and sometimes MSIT;
• But both publications differ by about 2 weeks
with regard to the cut-off date for the respective
publications – this might affect the data
published
6
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
The time factor
•
•
MEI needs “freshest” trade aggregates
If MSIT were to provide MEI with aggregate data to
meet their timeliness requirements, this could mean
the collection and transmission of “advance” totals
It remains to be seen if this is required. Pragmatic next
steps are:
1.
The MEI team communicates to the MSIT team the
monthly reception dates for trade aggregates for
2007 (total imports, total exports, and trade balance)
in “raw” format, that is as received at OECD
2.
The MSIT team would then match these dates with
their reception dates (see also Table 2)
7
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Different data treatment
Seasonal adjustment:
• MEI: takes nationally seasonally adjusted
figures. Where these are not available from
national sources, the series are adjusted by
the Secretariat according to the X12-ARIMA
method of the U.S. Bureau of the Census.
• MSIT: total trade values are seasonally
adjusted by the Secretariat using X12-ARIMA.
• Delegates are invited to state their
preference (see question 2 at the end of the
document)
8
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Different data treatment
Currency conversion
• For MSIT, the IMF monthly average
conversion rates from national currencies
into the US Dollar are taken
• This seems not to be systematically the
case in MEI
• A deeper analysis is needed
9
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Different data treatment
Data revision
• Both MEI and MSIT data collections have the
same revision policy, that is a full revision
going as far back as new data have been
provided. Changes to published data over
time are a regular and typical feature of these
monthly data collections.
• Data differences die to different revision
policy are believed to be rather insignificant
10
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Data discrepancies
• Differences between the two data sets were
identified even for countries where the data
supplied originates from the same source and
where both MSIT and MEI show the same “latest
month available”
• For the seven countries where source and
timeliness are identical between MSIT and
MEI, sometimes significant differences exist.
Variations of up to 15 % require a thorough
investigation on causes.
11
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Data discrepancies
• Concerning the other OECD countries, where
either timeliness or the source or both are
different, certain countries show very large
differences. These are Canada (up to 19.25 %
difference for imports and 19.72 % for exports),
Japan (up to 24.52 % for imports and 20.35 %
for exports), Luxembourg (with top values of
24.87 % for imports and 30.64 % for exports),
the Netherlands (up to 17.81 % for imports and
17.91 % for exports), but also Switzerland,
Turkey, New Zealand and the United States.
12
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Concluding remarks
• Identical series would be a great step towards greater coherence
and consistency of OECD vis-à-vis external users
• Therefore it is proposed that the MEI team provides the MSIT with
the monthly data reception dates for the year 2007. The MSIT team
then matches these with their reception dates for totals
• This comparison may reveal that another source could be more
suitable for either publication
• Or the need could be proven to “decouple” the pure trade
aggregates from the regular MSIT data submission/collection by
concentrating on the earliest possible calendar date in line with
MEI’s requirements.
• There should be no additional burden for countries since they do
already supply or make available the required data to MEI.
13
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Delegates are invited to express their
opinion of the following options:
•
•
Which is to be considered the best
source for monthly merchandise trade
data (see table 1)?
Do countries prefer to submit to OECD
national seasonally adjusted data or
would they prefer to let OECD adjust
the data using one standard adjustment
method (X12-ARIMA)?
14
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Delegates are invited to express their
opinion of the following options:
•
Do countries regard the data delivery
dates as stated in table 2 and
concerning only the aggregate trade
data (1=total value) as earliest
possibility (this includes Web services) ?
If not, is there an alternative source
which could provide the requested
totals earlier?
15
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Delegates are invited to express their
opinion of the following options:
•
In principle MSIT should provide to MEI
the trade aggregates. Would countries
commit to perusing this objective if it
implies some change to their data
delivery schedules to enable data
supplied for MSIT to meet MEI
timeliness requirements (= eventually
adding an advanced total for MSIT as
they already deliver to MEI)?
16
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Delegates are invited to express their
opinion of the following options:
Which role do delegates consider more
appropriate for OECD?
a) OECD should harmonize individual
country’s data to make it more
comparable?
b) OECD should reproduce country data
so that a country expert always
“recognizes” his or her country’s data?
17
STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics
Thank you for your attention!
[email protected]
18