Transcript What Works and What Doesn’t in Reducing Recidivism: Applying the Principles of Effective Intervention Presented by: Edward J.

What Works and What Doesn’t in Reducing
Recidivism: Applying the Principles of
Effective Intervention
Presented by:
Edward J. Latessa, Ph.D.
Center for Criminal Justice Research
School of Criminal Justice
University of Cincinnati
www.uc.edu/criminaljustice
Evidence Based – What does it mean?
There are different forms of evidence:
– The lowest form is anecdotal evidence; stories,
opinions, testimonials, case studies, etc - but it
often makes us feel good
– The highest form is empirical evidence –
research, data, results from controlled studies,
etc. - but sometimes it doesn’t make us feel
good
Evidence Based Practice is:
1. Easier to think of as Evidence Based Decision
Making
2. Involves several steps and encourages the use of
validated tools and treatments.
3. Not just about the tools you have but also how you
use them
How To Digest This Information
1.Think in terms of own agency
2.Think in terms of outside agencies
3.Think in terms of a system perspective
Evidence Based Decision Making Requires
1. Assessment information
2. Relevant research
3. Available programming
4. Evaluation
5. Professionalism and knowledge from staff
What does the Research tell us?
There is often a Misapplication of Research: “XXX Study
Says”
- the problem is if you believe every study we wouldn’t eat
anything (but we would drink a lot of red wine!)
• Looking at one study can be a mistake
• Need to examine a body of research
• So, what does the body of knowledge about correctional
interventions tell us?
A Large Body of Research Has
Indicated….
….that correctional services and interventions can be
effective in reducing recidivism for offenders, however,
not all programs and interventions are equally effective
• The most effective approaches are based on some principles of effective
interventions
• Risk (Who)
• Need (What)
• Treatment (How)
• Program Integrity (How Well)
Let’s Start with the Risk Principle
Risk refers to risk of reoffending and
not the seriousness of the offense.
You can be a low risk felon or a high
risk felon, a low risk misdemeanant
or a high risk misdemeanant.
Example of Risk Levels by Recidivism for a
Community Supervision Sample
Percent with New Arrest
70
Low Risk
Medium Risk
High Risk
58.9
60
50
40
34.3
30
20
10
9.1
0
Low 0-14
Medium = 15-23
High = 24-33
There are Three Elements to the
Risk Principle
1. Target those offenders with higher
probability of recidivism
2. Provide most intensive treatment to higher
risk offenders
3. Intensive treatment for lower risk offender
can increase recidivism
#1: Targeting Higher Risk
Offenders
• It is important to understand that even with
EBP there will be failures.
• Even if you reduce recidivism rates you will
still have high percentage of failures
Example of Targeting Higher Risk Offenders
• If you have 100 High risk offenders about
60% will fail
• If you put them in well designed EBP for
sufficient duration you may reduce failure
rate to 40%
• If you have 100 low risk offenders about
10% will fail
• If you put them in same program failure rate
will be 20%
Targeting Higher Risk Offenders
continued:
• In the end, who had the lower recidivism
rate?
• Mistake we make is comparing high risk to
low risk rather than look for treatment
effects
#2: Provide Most Intensive Interventions
to Higher Risk Offenders
• Higher risk offenders will require much higher
dosage of treatment
–
–
–
–
Rule of thumb: 100 hours for moderate risk
200+ hours for higher risk
100 hours for high risk will have little if any effect
Does not include work/school and other activities
that are not directly addressing criminogenic risk
factors
Intensive Treatment for Low Risk Offenders
will Often Increase Failure Rates
• Low risk offenders will learn anti social
behavior from higher risk
• Disrupts prosocial networks
Study of Intensive Rehabilitation Supervision in Canada
Recidivism
Rates
Bonta, J et al., 2000. A Quasi-Experimental Evaluation of an Intensive Rehabilitation Supervision Program., Vol. 27 No 3:312-329. Criminal
Justice and Behavior
2002 STUDY OF COMMUNITY
CORRECTIONAL PROGRAMS IN OHIO
• Largest study of community based correctional treatment
facilities ever done up to that time
• Total of 13,221 offenders – 37 Halfway Houses and 15
Community Based Correctional Facilities (CBCFs) were
included in the study.
• Two-year follow-up conducted on all offenders
• Recidivism measures included new arrests & incarceration in
a state penal institution
• We also examined program characteristics
Determination of Risk
• Each offender was given a risk score based
on 14 items that predicted outcome.
• This allowed us to compare low risk
offenders who were placed in a program to
low risk offenders that were not, high risk to
high risk, and so forth.
Reduced
Recidivism
Increased
Recidivism
-4
-19
-20
-10-10
-11
-12
-6
-7
-10
-1 -1
-2
-3
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11 11
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9
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7
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5 5
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20
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2010 STUDY OF COMMUNITY
CORRECTIONAL PROGRAMS IN OHIO
• Over 20,000 offenders – 44 Halfway Houses and 20
Community Based Correctional Facilities (CBCFs) were
included in the study.
• Two-year follow-up conducted on all offenders
-60
Harbor Light--D/A
CompDrug
MONDAY
Oriana RIP
Oriana CCTC
West Central
CATS male RTP
TH Turtle Creek
Cinti VOA SOT
AH Alum Creek
Harbor Light--Corr
Alternatives
Franklin
STARK
WORTH
CTCC Canton
NEOCAP
Oriana TMRC
TH Springrove
Oriana Summit
Pathfinder
Oriana Cliff Skeen
ALL CBCF FACILITIES
EOCC Female
ALL HWH FACILITIES
Lorain-Medina
Mahoning
Oriana Crossweah
River City
STAR
Talbert House CCC
Booth H/Salv A
CCA RTC I
CCA RTC II
Cinti VOA D/A
Comm Trans Ctr
Crossroads
Diversified
Fresh Start
SOS
TH Pathways
AH Dunning
ARCA
Oriana RCC
Licking-Muskingum
CATS female RTP
Mansfield VOA
SEPTA
TH Cornerstone
EOCC Male
Lucas
AH Price
AH Veterans
Dayton VOA
Small Programs
Toledo VOA
Northwest CCC
TH Beekman
CATS male TC
% Difference in Rate of New Felony Conviction
Treatment Effects for Low Risk: New Felon Conviction
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
AH Veterans
TH Beekman
MONDAY
CTCC Canton
TH Springrove
Northwest CCC
WORTH
Diversified
Oriana CCTC
Oriana Summit
Oriana Crossweah
ARCA
Booth H/Salv A
CATS male RTP
Crossroads
Franklin
Comm Trans Ctr
STARK
River City
Talbert House CCC
West Central
EOCC Male
ALL CBCF FACILITIES
CompDrug
AH Dunning
Alternatives
CCA RTC II
Small Programs
Harbor Light--D/A
ALL HWH FACILITIES
Oriana TMRC
CATS male TC
Fresh Start
Dayton VOA
NEOCAP
Harbor Light--Corr
Oriana RIP
Licking-Muskingum
Mahoning
Cinti VOA D/A
Oriana RCC
STAR
SOS
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CATS female RTP
AH Price
TH Turtle Creek
Lorain-Medina
Pathfinder
Toledo VOA
EOCC Female
Oriana Cliff Skeen
SEPTA
AH Alum Creek
Mansfield VOA
TH Cornerstone
CCA RTC I
% Difference in Rate of New Felony Conviction
Treatment Effects for High Risk: New Felony Convictions
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
Average Difference in Recidivism by Risk for
Halfway House Offenders
Low risk
↑ recidivism by 3%
Moderate risk
↓ recidivism by 6%
High risk
↓ recidivism by 14%
Risk Level by New Conviction: Results from 2005 Ohio
Study of over 14,000 Youth
50
41
Recidivism Rates
40
30
30
20
20
10
28
29 30
27 26
18
16
8
0
Low
Moderate
Community
High
CCF
Very High
Institution
Need Principle
By assessing and targeting criminogenic needs for change,
agencies can reduce the probability of recidivism
Criminogenic
Non-Criminogenic
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Anti social attitudes
Anti social friends
Substance abuse
Lack of empathy
Impulsive behavior
Anxiety
Low self esteem
Creative abilities
Medical needs
Physical conditioning
Major Set of Risk/Need Factors
1.
Antisocial/procriminal attitudes, values, beliefs and cognitive
emotional states
2.
Procriminal associates and isolation from anticriminal others
3.
Temperamental and anti social personality patterns conducive
to criminal activity including:
 Weak socialization
 Impulsivity
 Adventurous
 Restless/aggressive
 Egocentrism
 A taste for risk
 Weak problem-solving/self-regulation & coping skills
4. A history of antisocial behavior
Major Set of Risk/Need Factors Cont.
5.
Familial factors that include criminality and a variety of
psychological problems in the family of origin including:
 Low levels of affection, caring, and cohesiveness
 Poor parental supervision and discipline practices
 Outright neglect and abuse
6.
Low levels of personal, educational, vocational, or financial
achievement
7.
Low levels of involvement in prosocial leisure activities
8.
Substance Abuse
Recent study of parole violators in Pennsylvania found a
number of criminogenic factors related to failure*
*Conducted by Pennsylvania Dept. of Corrections
Pennsylvania Parole Study
Social Network and Living Arrangements
Violators Were:
• More likely to hang around with individuals
with criminal backgrounds
• Less likely to live with a spouse
• Less likely to be in a stable supportive
relationship
• Less likely to identify someone in their life
who served in a mentoring capacity
Pennsylvania Parole Study
Employment & Financial Situation
Violators were:
• Slightly more likely to report having difficulty getting a
job
• Less likely to have job stability
• Less likely to be satisfied with employment
• Less likely to take low end jobs and work up
• More likely to have negative attitudes toward
employment & unrealistic job expectations
• Less likely to have a bank account
• More likely to report that they were “barely making it”
(yet success group reported over double median debt)
Pennsylvania Parole Study
Alcohol or Drug Use
Violators were:
• More likely to report use of alcohol or drugs
while on parole (but no difference in prior
assessment of dependency problem)
• Poor management of stress was a primary
contributing factor to relapse
Pennsylvania Parole Study
Life on Parole
Violators were:
• Had unrealistic expectations about what life would be
like outside of prison
• Had poor problem solving or coping skills
– Did not anticipate long term consequences of behavior
• Failed to utilize resources to help them
– Acted impulsively to immediate situations
– Felt they were not in control
• More likely to maintain anti-social attitudes
– Viewed violations as an acceptable option to situation
– Maintained general lack of empathy
– Shifted blame or denied responsibility
Pennsylvania Parole Violator Study:
• Successes and failures did not differ in
difficulty in finding a place to live after
release
• Successes & failures equally likely to report
eventually obtaining a job
Major Risk and/or Need Factor and Promising Intermediate
Targets for Reduced Recidivism
Factor
Risk
Dynamic Need
History of Antisocial
Behavior
Early & continued
involvement in a number
antisocial acts
Build noncriminal
alternative behaviors
in risky situations
Antisocial personality
Adventurous, pleasure
Build problem-solving, selfseeking, weak self
management, anger mgt &
control, restlessly aggressive coping skills
Antisocial cognition
Attitudes, values, beliefs
& rationalizations
supportive of crime,
cognitive emotional states
of anger, resentment, &
defiance
Antisocial associates
Close association with
Reduce association w/
criminals & relative isolation criminals, enhance
from prosocial people
association w/ prosocial people
Reduce antisocial cognition,
recognize risky thinking &
feelings, build up alternative
less risky thinking & feelings
Adopt a reform and/or
anticriminal identity
Adopted from Andrews, D.A. et al, (2006). The Recent Past and Near Future of Risk and/or Need Assessment. Crime and Delinquency, 52 (1).
Major Risk and/or Need Factor and Promising Intermediate
Targets for Reduced Recidivism
Factor
Risk
Dynamic Need
Family and/or marital
Two key elements are
nurturance and/or caring
better monitoring and/or
supervision
Reduce conflict, build
positive relationships,
communication, enhance
monitoring & supervision
School and/or work
Low levels of performance
& satisfaction
Enhance performance,
rewards, & satisfaction
Leisure and/or recreation
Low levels of involvement
& satisfaction in anticriminal leisure activities
Enhancement involvement
& satisfaction in prosocial
activities
Substance Abuse
Abuse of alcohol and/or
drugs
Reduce SA, reduce the
personal & interpersonal
supports for SA behavior,
enhance alternatives to SA
Adopted from Andrews, D.A. et al, (2006). The Recent Past and Near Future of Risk and/or Need Assessment. Crime and Delinquency, 52 (1).
Needs T argeted & Correlation with Effect Size for Youthful Offenders
0.4
0.3
Reduced
Recidivism
0.2
0.1
0
Increased
Recidivism
-0.1
Bond Anti Social Peers
Target Self-Esteem
Vague Emotional Problems
Respect Anti Social Thinking
Physical Activity
Criminogenic Needs
Effect Size
Fear of Punishment
-0.2
-0.18
-0.12
-0.09
-0.06
-0.05
-0.03
0.36
Source: Dowden and Andrews, (1999). What Works in Young Offender Treatment: A Meta Analysis. Forum on Correctional Research.
Correctional Services of Canada
Targeting Criminogenic Need: Results from MetaAnalyses
Reduction in
Recidivism
Increase in
Recidivism
Source: Gendreau, P., French, S.A., and A.Taylor (2002). What Works (What Doesn’t Work) Revised 2002. Invited Submission to the International Community Corrections
Association Monograph Series Project
Assessment is the engine that drives
effective correctional programs
• Need to meet the risk and need principle
• Reduces bias
• Aids decision making
• Allows you to target dynamic risk factors
and measure change
Dynamic Risk Factors and Their
Importance
• Also called criminogenic needs
• Changing these factors changes the probability of
recidivism
• Provide the basis for developing a treatment plan
• Address factors that will reduce risk
• Lead to public safety
Dynamic and Static Factors
• Static Factors are those factors that are related
to risk and do not change. Some examples
might be number of prior offenses, whether an
offender has ever had a drug/alcohol problem.
• Dynamic factors relate to risk and can change.
Some examples are whether an offender is
currently unemployed or currently has a
drug/alcohol problem.
According to the American Heart Association, there are a number of
risk factors that increase your chances of a first heart attack
 Family history of heart attacks
 Gender (males)
 Age (over 50)
 Inactive lifestyle
 Over weight
 High blood pressure
 Smoking
 High Cholesterol level
New Non-Proprietary System is the
Indiana Risk Assessment System
• Development based on assessment of over
2,600 offenders (Ohio and Indiana)
• Instruments will includes:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Pretrial
Community Supervision
Screener
Prison Intake
Reentry
Indiana Youth Assessment
System
• Five Instruments:
- Diversion Tool
- Detention Tool
- Disposition Tool (with Screener)
- Residential Tool
- Reentry Tool
Ohio Youth Assessment System
Full Report: Dispositional Tool
1.0 Juvenile Justice History
2.0 Family and Living Arrangements
3.0 Peers and Social Support Network
Treatment Principle
The most effective interventions are behavioral:
• Focus on current factors that influence behavior
• Action oriented
Results from Meta Analysis: Behavioral vs.
NonBehavioral
Reduced
Recidivism
Andrews, D.A. 1994. An Overview of Treatment Effectiveness. Research and Clinical Principles, Department of Psychology, Carleton
University. The N refers to the number of studies.
Most Effective Behavioral
Models
• Structured social learning where new skills
and behaviors are modeled
• Family based approaches that train family
on appropriate techniques
• Cognitive behavioral approaches that target
criminogenic risk factors
Family Based Interventions
• Designed to train family on behavioral
approaches
–
–
–
–
Functional Family Therapy
Multi-Systemic Therapy
Teaching Family Model
Strengthening Families Program (Office of
Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention)
Effectiveness of Family Based Intervention: Results
from Meta Analysis
• 38 primary studies with 53 effect tests
• Average reduction in recidivism= 21%
However, much variability was present
(-0.17 - +0.83)
Dowden & Andrews, 2003
Mean Effect Sizes: Whether or not the family
intervention adheres to the principles
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
Yes
No
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
Risk
Need
Treatment
Social Learning
Refers to several processes through which
individuals acquire attitudes, behavior, or
knowledge from the persons around them. Both
modeling and instrumental conditioning appear to
play a role in such learning
The Four Principles of Cognitive
Intervention
1. Thinking affects behavior
2. Antisocial, distorted, unproductive
irrational thinking can lead to antisocial
and unproductive behavior
3. Thinking can be influenced
4. We can change how we feel and behave by
changing what we think
Recent Meta-Analysis of Cognitive Behavioral Treatment for
Offenders by Landenberger & Lipsey (2005)*
• Reviewed 58 studies:
19 random samples
23 matched samples
16 convenience samples
• Found that on average CBT reduced recidivism by 25%,
but the most effective configurations found more than 50%
reductions
Significant Findings (effects were stronger if):
•
•
•
•
Sessions per week (2 or more) - RISK
Implementation monitored - FIDELITY
Staff trained on CBT - FIDELITY
Higher proportion of treatment completers RESPONSIVITY
• Higher risk offenders - RISK
• Higher if CBT is combined with other services - NEED
Evaluation of a CBT Program:
Thinking for a Change
Lowenkamp and Latessa (2006)
•
•
•
•
•
Tippecanoe County Indiana
Probation +T4C vs. Probation
136 Treatment cases
97 Comparison cases
Variable follow up (range 6 to 64 months;
average 26)
• Outcome—arrest for new criminal behavior
Multivariate Model
• Controlled for
– Risk (prior arrests, prior prison, prior
community supervision violations, history of
drug use, history of alcohol problems, highest
grade completed, employment status at arrest)
– Age
– Sex
– Race
– Time at risk or length of follow up time
Adjusted Recidivism Rates Comparing T4C
Participants to Comparison Group
Recent Study of Non-Residential Community
Correctional Programs in Ohio involving over
13,000 Offenders
• Included both misdemeanants and felons
under community supervision
• Programs included day reporting centers,
work release, ISP, and electronic
monitoring programs
TYPE OF COMMUNITY SUPERVISION PROGRAM DID
NOT MATTER: FOUR FACTORS WERE
SIGNIFCICANTLY RELATED TO OUTCOME
• Proportion of higher risk offenders in program (at least 75% of
offenders in programs were moderate or high risk)
• Level of supervision for higher risk offenders (high risk offenders
averaged longer periods of supervision than low risk)
• More treatment for higher risk offenders (at least 50% more time spent
in treatment)
• More referrals for services for higher risk offenders (at least 3 referrals
for every 1 received by low risk)
Changes in Recidivism by Program
Factors for Probation Programs
Reductions in
Recidivism
Increased
Recidivism
Change in Recidivism by 4 Point Factor Score
for Probation Programs
Reduced
Recidivism
Increased
Recidivism
What Doesn’t Work with Offenders?
Lakota tribal wisdom says that when you discover you are riding a dead
horse, the best strategy is to dismount. However, in corrections, and in
other affairs, we often try other strategies, including the following:
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Buy a stronger whip.
Change riders
Say things like “This is the way we always have ridden this horse.”
Appoint a committee to study the horse.
Arrange to visit other sites to see how they ride dead horses.
Create a training session to increase our riding ability.
Harness several dead horses together for increased speed.
Declare that “No horse is too dead to beat.”
Provide additional funding to increase the horse’s performance.
Declare the horse is “better, faster, and cheaper” dead.
Study alternative uses for dead horses.
Promote the dead horse to a supervisory position.
Ineffective Approaches
• Programs that cannot maintain fidelity
• Drug prevention classes focused on fear and other
emotional appeals
• Shaming offenders
• Drug education programs
• Non-directive, client centered approaches
• Bibliotherapy
• Freudian approaches
• Talking cures
• Self-Help programs
• Vague unstructured rehabilitation programs
• Medical model
• Fostering self-regard (self-esteem)
• “Punishing smarter” (boot camps, scared straight, etc.)
Relationship Between Coed Programs and
Treatment Effect 2002 Study
% Change in Recidivism
10
8
7
6
4
2
0
0
Mixed Sex
Single Sex
Relationship between Coed and
Single Sex Programs- 2010 Study
The Fidelity Principle: Make Sure Programs
Are Delivered With Fidelity and Integrity
Program Integrity and Recidivism
• Every major study we have done has found
a strong relationship between program
integrity and recidivism
• Higher integrity score – greater the
reductions in recidivism
Program Integrity—Relationship Between Program Integrity Score
And Treatment Effect for Community Supervision Programs
Reduced
Recidivism
Increased
Recidivism
Program Integrity—Relationship Between Program Integrity Score
And Treatment Effect for Residential Programs
Reduced
Recidivism
Increased
Recidivism
0-30
31-59
60-69
70+
Impact of Program Factors Predicting
Felony Adjudication for Juvenile
Programs
Predicted Recidivism Rates
70
60
60
53
50
47
43
40
36
31
27
30
22
18
20
11
10
8
7
0
Low
Program Score 0
Moderate
Program Score 12
High
Very High
Program Score 24
Lessons Learned from the Research
Who you put in a program is important –
pay attention to risk
What you target is important – pay attention
to criminogenic needs
How you target offender for change is
important – use behavioral approaches
Important Considerations
Offender assessment is the engine that drives
effective programs
helps you know who & what to target
Design programs around empirical research
helps you know how to target offenders
Program Integrity make a difference
Service delivery, disruption of criminal
networks, training/supervision of staff,
support for program, QA, evaluation