Transcript Giulia Mugellini – Transcrime, University of Milan DEVELOPMENT OF MONITORING INSTRUMENTS FOR JUDICIAL AND LAW ENFORCEMENT INSTITUTIONS IN THE WESTERN BALKANS PHASE 3 – POLICE.

Giulia Mugellini – Transcrime, University of Milan
DEVELOPMENT OF MONITORING
INSTRUMENTS FOR JUDICIAL AND LAW
ENFORCEMENT INSTITUTIONS IN THE
WESTERN BALKANS
PHASE 3 – POLICE TRAINING
Sarajevo, 30 September – 1st October 2010
With funding from the
European Union
DEVELOPMENT OF MONITORING INSTRUMENTS FOR
JUDICIAL AND LAW ENFORCEMENT INSTITUTIONS IN
THE WESTERN BALKANS 2009-2011
Phase three – Training
SESSION 1
• Introductions
• Programme Guidelines Recommendations
• How the sessions are organised
MY BACKGROUND AND RECENT WORK
• International Ph.D. in Criminology – University of Milan
• Internship at UNODC RAS section
• Lecturer of Crime Statistics and Advanced Crime Statistics at
University of Milan since A.A. 2008/2009
• Researcher at Transcrime
 Managing and doing research
 Analysis of data on crime and security
 Business Crime Victimisation Survey
• Observer European Sourcebook of Crime and Criminal Justice
Statistics since 2007
INTRODUCTIONS FROM PARTICIPANTS
RECOMMENDATIONS FROM THE PROGRAMME
GUIDELINES
RECOMMENDATIONS
#4
Record data on the suspected offender and the victim by crime type; Session 2
age; sex; ethnicity; offender-victim relationship; citizenship and
geographical area of residence.
#7
Enhance the use of police crime data at the level of the cantons and Session 3-4
entities for analytical and monitoring purposes at the State and
regional levels.
#8
Adopt and disseminate clearly written and standardised counting rules Session 2
for the recording, aggregation in tables and transmission of crime
data.
# 12
Report statistics on criminal offences disaggregated by crime type;
statistics on offenders disaggregated by crime type, age, sex and
citizenship and statistics on victims of crime disaggregated by crime
type, age, sex, citizenship and victim-offender relationship. Published
statistical reports should be accompanied by thorough interpretations
of statistical patterns and trends as well as detailed metadata.
Session 3-4
SESSION 1: The System Approach of CCJ Statistics
“3 x 3” approach
Because focused on statistics produced by 3 agencies:
1.
POLICE statistics
2.
PROSECUTION statistics
3.
COURT statistics
“the output of one agency is the input to another” UNODC 2003, pp. 16-18
Because focused on 3 processes in each agencies:
1.
DATA ENTRY: which and how data are collected by the relevant agencies (Police,
Prosecution and Court)
2.
DATA FLOW: how data are passed on from local to central level within each
agency
3.
DATA OUTPUT: how data are analysed and disseminated to the public by the
different agencies
SESSION 1: The 3 x 3 Approach
POLICE
PROSECUTION
COURTS
DATA
ENTRY
DATA
ENTRY
DATA
ENTRY
DATA FLOW
DATA FLOW
DATA FLOW
DATA
OUTPUT
DATA
OUTPUT
DATA
OUTPUT
SESSION 1: THE NEED FOR VALID STATISTICS
• For knowledge-based crime policy....
You need to know ‘the facts’
• To interpret your knowledge....
You need to compare across years, and across countries
• To compare....
Your data need to be comparable within your own jurisdiction
over time, and – ideally – with other jurisdictions
• To be comparable....
Means that common standards have been applied – within the
jurisdiction, and over time, and – ideally – the same as other
jurisdictions
Based on Kauko Aromaa (HEUNI)
SESSION 1: CENTRALIZED VS DECENTRALIZED CCJ SYSTEM
“One of the major characteristics distinguishing different types of criminal justice statistics
is the degree of centralization of data collection and processing, which is typically a
reflection of the degree of administrative centralization of the criminal justice system itself”.
UN Manual , 2006, p. 6
SESSION 2: WRITTEN RULES FOR RECORDING AND
COUNTING CRIMES AND SUSPECTS
• What are the main counting rules?
• The existence of written counting rules regulating the way in
which data are recorded in police crime statistics;.
- Across countries in Europe
- Across Western Balkans
- In BiH
• What is the present consistency in recording (without written
rules)?
• Resource and training implications
COUNTING RULES IN POLICE STATISTICS
“…. the rules applied in each country to count offences included in crime
statistics. Such rules vary … hence introducing differences in recorded crime
rates that do not reflect actual differences in the levels of crime”.
Aebi 2003, p. 1.
What we know is that there are NO CONSISTENT counting rules across the
Western Balkans, or across other countries
See Handout #10
However, there is some ‘best practice’ guidance
WHAT ARE THE MAIN COUNTING RULES?
• The moment when data are collected in crime statistics (Input
statistics: data are included in statistics when the crime incident is
reported to police/ Intermediate statistics: some point in time between the
input and the output/Output statistics: data are recorded in statistics when
the police have completed the investigation);
• The application of the principal offence rule;
• The recording of multiple offences;
• The recording of offences committed by more than one person
Fig. 1 – Existence of written counting rules across European countries.
Year 1999-2007. Source: European Sourcebook and CARDS’ TARs
Western Balkans: three
out of seven countries
do not have written
counting rules. in some
countries, even if there
are counting rules of the
MoI, these seem not to
be adequately shared
across all the criminal
justice actors.
13
EXISTENCE OF WRITTEN COUNTING RULES IN BiH
There are no uniform counting rules issued by a central
institution and applied uniformly in all of BiH.
•In FBiH and in RS there are “written instructions to the
police stations to fill in the standard statistical forms”.
•BDBiH has not written instruction for statistical data
collection at the level of police.
•These rules are not shared by all authorities at the state
level.
Source: TAR for BiH, p. 11.
14
Fig. 2 – The moment when crime data are recorded across European countries.
Year 1999-2007. Source: European Sourcebook and CARDS’ TARs
European countries:
The
majority
of
European countries
has input statistics.
Nine countries out of
thirty-six use output
statistics.
Twelve
record
intermediate statistics.
15
Western
Balkans:
the majority of WBs
presents intermediate
statistics,
Albania,
Croatia and Serbia
present
output
statistics.
HOW DOES THE MOMENT WHEN CRIME DATA ARE
COLLECTED AFFECT POLICE CRIME STATISTICS?
•The main thing is to know: if there are input statistics, the crime count
is higher
N = 36 European countries
Output
Moment data collection
Fig. 3 - Index average
number of total recorded
offences per 100,000
population in 36
European countries,
grouped according to
specific counting rule.
Period 2003-2007.
Source: author’s
elaboration of European
Sourcebook data
100
Intermediate
76
Input
131
0
20
16 40
60
80
100
120
140
THE MOMENT WHEN CRIME DATA ARE RECORDED IN CRIME
STATISTICS IN BiH
•Clear information on the moment when crime data are
collected for inclusion in statistics was collected for
Republika Srpska: “when the incident has been classified as
a crime by the police (input statistics)” TAR BiH, p. 11.
•Information on this counting rule applied in the other
entities of BiH?
17
Fig. 4 – Application of principal offence rule. Year 1999-2007. Source:
European Sourcebook and CARDS’ TARs
European countries:
About half apply a
POR, and half do not
Western Balkans:
only Albania applies
the POR.
18
THE PRINCIPAL OFFENCE RULE (POR)
•
•
•
International guidelines suggest it may be appropriate to apply a POR when counting and
reporting offences.
BUT changing to a POR will reduce the crime count, and cause a ‘break’ in the crime statistics
series.
What is important to know is that if there is no POR, the crime count is higher
N = 36 European countries
No
111
Principal offence rule
Fig. 4 - Index average
number of total recorded
offences
per
100,000
population in 36 European
countries, grouped according
to specific counting rule.
Period 2003-2007.
Source: author’s elaboration
of European Sourcebook
data
Yes
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
THE PRINCIPLE OFFENCE RULE - EXAMPLE
Assault
Criminal damage
Offences
Suspects
Offences
POR
No POR




1
2
THE PRINCIPAL OFFENCE RULE IN BiH
•Clear information on the application of the principal offence
rule was collected for Republika Srpska: “in cases involving
more than one criminal offence all offences are counted
separately ” TAR BiH, p. 11.
•Information on this counting rule applied in the other
entities of BiH?
21
Fig. 5 – Recording of multiple offenders (suspects). Year 1999-2007.
Source: European Sourcebook and CARDS’ TARs
European countries:
counts only one
offence when more
than one person
commit it.
Western Balkans
situation: the majority
of WBs records
offences committed by
more than one person
as one offence, only
Kosovo under UNSCR
1244 records them as
two or more offences.
22
MULTIPLE OFFENDERS / SUSPECTS IN BiH
•In Kosovo under UNSCR 1244 the number of offences = the number of
offenders
•In terms of offences is reasonable to count one offence but in terms of
suspects, it is reasonable to count two
•Clear information on the application of the principal offence rule for
offenders was collected for Republika Srpska: “an offence with more than
one perpetrators is counted as one offence, with several persons
involved ” TAR BiH, p. 11.
•Information on this counting rule applied in the other entities of
BiH?
Fig. 6 – Recording of multiple offences (serial offending). Year 1999-2007.
Source: European Sourcebook and CARDS’ TARs
European countries:
the majority records
multiple offences as
two ore more offences
Western Balkans
situation: the majority
of WBs records
multiple offences as
two ore more
offences, only Albania
records them as one
offence.
24
MULTIPLE OFFENCES
•The main thing to know is: if serial offending is recorded as two or more offences, the crime
count is higher
Two or more offences
111
Multiple offences
Fig. 7 - Index average
number
of
total
recorded offences per
100,000 population in
36 European countries,
grouped according to
specific counting rule.
Period 2003-2007.
Source:
author’s
elaboration of European
Sourcebook data
One offence
100
N = 36 European countries
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
MULTIPLE OFFENCES IN BiH
•Clear information on the counting of multiple offences
was collected for Republika Srpska: “serial offending is
typically counted as only one case and as one offence”
TAR BiH, p. 11.
•Information on this counting rule applied in the
other entities of BiH?
OTHER COUNTING RULES ISSUES
DOC. N. 8: HOME OFFICE COUNTING RULES IS USEFUL
Some issues are:
 Whether to record a crime, misdemeanour, or incident at all?
 ‘No crime-ing’ after recording
 ‘Evidenced-based’ recording or ‘prima facie’ recording (i.e. taking the victim’s
word)
 Crimes per victim or per episode?– e.g. shoplifting in several shops
 Classification and re-classification
WHAT IS CURRENTLY MOST OFTEN DONE MAY BE THE BEST STARTING
POINT FOR FORMALISING WRITTEN RULES
PRESENT CONSISTENCY IN COUNTING RULES IN BiH
DISCUSSION
DESIRED SITUATION FOR BiH
 Necessity of written counting rules at the level of entities and at
the state level?
 Who would take the lead in devising written rules at the level of
entities and at the state level?
 How would prosecutors be involved?
 What learning opportunities would personnel be given?
 What testing mechanisms would be put in place?
 How would the written rules be revised?
DISCUSSION
SESSION 2: DATA ON THE SUSPECTED OFFENDERS
AND THE VICTIMS
Details on suspects and victims
•
Sex and Age
 Relevant to Recommendations #4 & #12
 Also relevant to Pilot Data Collection Exercise
•
Victim-offender relationships
 Relevant to Recommendations #4 & #12
 Also relevant to Pilot Data Collection Exercise
•
Ethnicity and citizenship
 Recommendation #4 & #12
 Also relevant to Pilot Data Collection Exercise
•
Recidivism of offenders
 Recommendation #4 & #12
DATA ON THE SUSPECTED OFFENDERS AND THE VICTIMS IN BiH
“Data on the suspected offender are recorded in the crime registries of the police in
the FBiH, RS and BDBiH. However, only few personal details of the suspected
perpetrators are recorded.” TAR of BiH, p. 7.
In particular for suspected offenders and victims are recorded details only on:
•Age category (minor/adult)
•Recidivism (specify)
No information on the offender’s sex, age, citizenship or ethnicity and
offender-victim relationship
AGE
See UN classification for standardisation.
< 14
14-16
16-18
18-21
21-24
24-29
29-39
39-49
49-59
> 59
Un-known
VICTIM-OFFENDER RELATIONSHIPS
The primary interest is in:
•
People known to each other >>> not known to each other
 Important for ‘stranger violence’
•
People who are (or were) partners (‘partner violence’)
 Violence by ex-partners seen as important as violence by current partners
•
People who are in a domestic relationship ranging wider than partners (‘domestic
violence’)
There are several possible classifications
VICTIM-OFFENDER RELATIONSHIPS
See Handout # 11
INTERNATIONAL CRIME VICTIMISATION SURVEY
1
Spouse, partner (at the time)
2
Ex-spouse, ex-partner (at the time)
3
Boyfriend (at the time)
4
Ex-boyfriend (at the time)
5
Relative
6
Close friend
7
Someone he/she works/worked with
8
None of these
9
Refuses to say
VICTIM-OFFENDER RELATIONSHIPS
See Handout # 11
UN MANUAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SYSTEM OF CRRIMINAL JUSTICE STATISTICS
(pp. 55 AND 60)
Spouse
Ex-spouse
Parent
Child
Other family
Friend
Business relation
Acquaintance
Stranger
Other
Issue of ‘partners’
Issue of step-parents
What is a ‘child’
How extended is the ‘family’
Boy-friend / girl-friend?
Seen before but don’t know?
The issue is whether known or not
ETHNICITY AND CITIZENSHIP
See Handout # 12
• Example of ethnicity classification from other countries
• What about citizenship?
DISCUSSION
RECIDIVISM OF OFFENDERS
• It is unusual to report on offender recidivism in publications on ‘crime
statistics’
 More often reported in relation to prosecution or courts statistics
• There are some problems
 What is a recidivist? What counts?
• Anyone previously arrested?
• Only those previously sanctioned? But what about police
warnings and cautions?
DESIRED SITUATION FOR BiH
 Necessity of collecting information on these details for
suspects and victims?
 How could it be implemented? Necessity to change the
incident form to register crime? Necessity to add fields
in the tables used to transmit the data?
DISCUSSION
OFFENCES FOR THE PILOT DATA COLLECTION EXERCISE
Which of these is going to cause problems? How far are the definitions
in footnotes in Handout # 5 the same?
Data Collection Exercise
All offences
Completed Intentional Homicide
Violent crime
Assault
Sexual violence
Rape
Robbery
Drug Trafficking
Drug use /possession
Migrants smuggling
Trafficking in persons
Total corruption offences
Passive bribery
DISCUSSION
INFORMATION TO BE COLLECTED IN THE PILOT DATA
COLLECTION EXERCISE
1. Number of offences recorded by the police, by offence type
2. Number of persons recorded by the police as suspects, by offence type
3. Profile of persons recorded by the police as suspects, by offence type and
Sex
See Handout # 5.
Age
Citizenship
Which of these is going to cause
Ethnicity
problems? Some issues have been
Recidivism
4. Victim-offender relationship, by offence type
already discussed in Session 2
5. Profile of victims recorded by the police, by offence type and
Sex
Age
Citizenship
Ethnicity
SESSION 3: DATA OUTPUT - OVERVIEW OF REPORTS OF
POLICE DATA AT INTERNATIONAL & NATIONAL LEVEL
• The need for valid data and common standards
• Main international compilations of police figures
• Two examples of national reports
England & Wales
New Zealand
INTERNATIONAL REPORTS
•
Not very long-standing
•
All come with substantial caveats
•
World Health Organisation – covers violence (probably
least comparable)
•
United Nations Survey on Crime Trends and the
Operation of the Criminal Justice System (UN – CTS)
•
European Sourcebook of Crime and Criminal Justice
Statistics
•
Eurostat: Statistics in Focus – Crime and Criminal Justice
UNITED NATIONS
•
Latest edition 2010 (covering data from
1996 – 2006)
•
Data available
•
Includes data on BiH (2008)
•
Covers more than police-recorded crime e.g., CJS personnel and prisoner numbers
•
Data requirements have been simplified
over time
http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/Crimestatistics/International_Statistics_on_Crime_and_Justice.pdf
EUROPEAN SOURCEBOOK
•
Latest edition 2010
•
About three previous editions
•
Data available
•
Includes data on BiH (2005, 2006)
•
Much work done on improving and
documenting comparability
http://www.europeansourcebook.org/ob285_full.pdf
EUROSTAT
•
Latest edition 2009
•
Modelled on Sourcebook
•
Limited commentary, but good notes
•
No data on BiH
•
Seven crime types
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Total crime
Homicide
Violent crime
Robbery
Domestic burglary
Theft of motor vehicle
Drug trafficking
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_OFFPUB/KS-SF-09-036/EN/KS-SF-09-036-EN.PDF
NATIONAL REPORTS
•
Massive variety of styles
•
Usually annual
•
Sometimes with other criminal justice system information;
sometimes not
•
Sometimes with special topics; sometimes not
•
USA – ‘Index’ crimes only
•
Nearly all publically available
•
Now also usually available on the web
•
Data sometimes downloadable
ENGLAND & WALES
•
Publication has changed over time
•
Now covers British Crime Survey (BCS) and
police figures
•
Produce additional reports - e.g., homicide
•
Also quarterly bulletins
•
Publication tightly controlled by Office of National
Statistics rules
ENGLAND & WALES (2)
Latest publication covers:
 Extent of and trends in crime
 Violent and sexual crimes
 Acquisitive and other property crime
 Publications perceptions
 Detection of crime
 Geographic patterns of crime
Most chapters draw on police figures and British Crime Survey.
ENGLAND & WALES – GOOD EXAMPLES (1)
Discontinuance in police figures
 Major changes in offence coverage in 1998

e.g., minor assaults
 Also changes in police recording practices

e.g., counting by victims
ENGLAND & WALES – GOOD EXAMPLES (2)
Information on the age of the victims of crime
ENGLAND & WALES – GOOD EXAMPLES (3)
Crime classification
NEW ZEALAND
GOOD POINTS
•
Straightforward
•
Show detection (resolution) figures
•
Monthly online figures
BAD POINTS
•
Both fiscal and calendar year publications – too
much
•
Little commentary (need to read Police Annual
Report as well)
•
Nothing about victims
•
Nothing about offenders
NEW ZEALAND (2)
• Review of statistics in 2009 (last review in 1982)
– e.g. recommendation to record victim-offender relationship
• Another discontinuance in the figures
 Major change in computer systems
 New system meant fewer offences were ‘lost’
 New police recording rules
 Bought some area more into line with the areas with the
most ‘generous’ recording
SESSION 4: DATA OUTPUT - PUBLICATION OF RESULTS,
ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION
1. How are the current ‘publications’ received?
 What tables are most needed, used and liked?
 What are the main problems in compiling them?
 How could these problems be resolved?
DISCUSSION
2. How feasible is internet publication?
3. How feasible in publication in English?
4. Do current publications matching different user requirements?
DISCUSSION
5. Ways forward with analysis and interpretation
THE CURRENT PUBLICATIONS: GOOD AND BAD
How are the current ‘publications’ received?
 What tables are most needed, used and liked?
 What are the main problems in compiling them?
 How could these problems be resolved?
DISCUSSION
INTERNET PUBLICATION? ENGLISH PUBLICATION?
USER REQUIREMENTS?
How feasible is internet publication?
How feasible in publication in English?
Do current publications matching different user requirements?
DISCUSSION
ANALYSIS
Doc N. 9: UN Manual – Chapter VI, Annex B & F – some guidelines
Analysis: some principles
• People like some degree of consistency
• Longer-term figures are useful (not just this year / last year)
• Per capita rates are useful for:
 different areas (crimes / population)
 different population groups (offenders x ethnicity / population x ethnicity)
• Graphical material is good, but keep it simple
DISCUSSION
INTERPRETATION
“Analysis should normally be limited to presentation and technical interpretation of the data. While
users often want interpretive analysis of .. policy implications …a bureau of criminal justice statistics
may jeopardize its credibility and perceived objectivity by performing this type of analysis. …. Policy
analysis and data interpretation may be more appropriately performed by subject-matter specialists
under the guidance of statistical experts.”
UN Manual, page 33
• Most official reports just present the facts
 Avoiding – e.g. – “large increase” / “small increase”
• Important to explain discontinuances in the data
 It may be an analysis task to ‘splice’ the data, or rework it
SESSION 5: ROUND–UP AND FUTURE PLANS
Summary of previous sessions – completed during training
Future plans
WHAT NEEDS MORE ATTENTION
[Points from previous sessions]
DISCUSSION
SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM GOALS
What are the goals
Which are longer-term?
Which are shorter-term?
SHORT-TERM GOALS – STEPS AND DEADLINES
DISCUSSION AND DECISIONS
LONGER-TERM GOALS – STEPS AND DEADLINES
DISCUSSION AND DECISIONS
THANK YOU FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION
Giulia Mugellini – Transcrime, University of Milan
DEVELOPMENT OF MONITORING
INSTRUMENTS FOR JUDICIAL AND LAW
ENFORCEMENT INSTITUTIONS IN THE
WESTERN BALKANS
PHASE 3 – POLICE TRAINING
Sarajevo, 30 September – 1st October 2010
With funding from the
European Union
DEVELOPMENT OF MONITORING INSTRUMENTS FOR
JUDICIAL AND LAW ENFORCEMENT INSTITUTIONS IN
THE WESTERN BALKANS 2009-2011
Phase three – Training