Transcript THE INTER-REGIONAL SOUTH-SOUTH COOPERATION FOR INCLUSIVE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Alicia Bárcena Executive Secretary The Global Economy Marked by Uncertainty  Global economy will grow 3.1% in 2013 &

THE INTER-REGIONAL
SOUTH-SOUTH
COOPERATION FOR
INCLUSIVE SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT
Alicia Bárcena
Executive Secretary
1
The Global Economy Marked by Uncertainty
 Global economy will grow 3.1% in 2013 & 3.8% in 2014.
 Slow recovery of the US (1.9% for 2013)
 Europe grew by 1.2% in the second quarter after 6
quarters of negative growth (-0.4% for 2013)
 China grew by 7.5% in the second quarter (7.5% for
2013)
 The favourable financial situation in developed countries
contrasts with a weak real economy
 Growth in developing countries is slowing
 More restrictive financial scenario is expected with the
withdrawal of QE in the United States
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Slowdown in world trade to 5.2%
International trade volumes and world GDP, 1980-2013
(Percentages)
Source:SOUTH-SOUTH
Economic Commission COOPERATION
for Latin America and theFOR
Caribbean
(ECLAC), on the
basis of information from
the International Monetary Fund
INCLUSIVE
SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT
(IMF) and World Trade Organization (WTO).
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Greater growth dynamism of the South …
Emerging economies represented 38% of world GDP in 2012. It is expected that
emerging economies’ share in world GDP will exceed that of advanced economies in the
coming decades.
SHARE OF ADVANCED AND EMERGING ECONOMIES IN WORLD GDP
(1980-2018, percent of total GDP measured in current US$)
90%
Actual
80%
Forecast
70%
60%
% of total
50%
38%
40%
30%
20%
20%
10%
0%
Source: On the basis of data from World Economic Outlook Database, April (2013)
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The South led the recovery of the world economy after the
global crisis, and will be more dynamic than advanced
economies for some time to come...
GDP GROWTH RATES BY REGIONS, 2009-2018
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2018
World
-2.1
4.0
2.8
2.3
2.3
3.1
4.1
Euro Zone
-4.4
2.0
1.4
-0.6
-0.4
1.1
1.6
United States
-2.8
2.5
1.8
2.8
1.9
2.6
3.1
Latin America and the Caribbean
-1.9
5.6
4.3
3.0
3.0
4.2
3.7
Developing Asia
7.7
9.8
7.8
6.4
6.3
6.5
6.7
Sub-Saharan Africa
2.6
5.6
5.5
4.9
5.0
6.0
5.7
Source: ECLAC based on official data from DESA-UN, ESCAP-UN and 2018 IMF estimates.
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Increasing relevance of South-South relations in
trade…
 South-South trade grew as a proportion of global trade and it could exceed NorthNorth trade by 2017
EVOLUTION OF WORLD EXPORTS BY REGION, 1985-2020
(Percentages of total exports)
70
60
50
North-North
North-South
40
30
South-South
South-North
20
10
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
0
Fuente: ECLAC, based on COMTRADE Database and International Trade and Integration Division projections from 2012 onwards
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…and in investment flows…
 Between 2005 and 2012, developing countries increased their share both as receptors of
FDI flows (from 37% to 58%) and as source of FDI flows (from 17% to 27%).
WORLD: OUTFLOWS OF FDI
(in US$ billions)
WORLD: INFLOWS OF FDI, 1990-2011
(In US$ billions)
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1990
58%
1993
1996
1999
Advanced economies
2002
2005
2008
Developing economies
2011
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1990
27%
1993
1996
1999
Advanced economies
2002
2005
2008
2011
Developing economies
 Almost 60% of FDI originating from developing countries corresponds to South-South
flows.
o The most dynamic countries in South-South FDI are Russia, China, South Africa, Malaysia,
Singapore, Mexico and Brazil.
o With the exception of China, India and Brazil, most South-South FDI flows are intra-regional
o An important characteristic of South-South flows is that they are in general “greenfield”
SOUTH-SOUTH
COOPERATION
FOR INCLUSIVE
SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT
investment
as opposed
to South-North
FDI flows that
are in general
mergers and/or
acquisitions.
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Several mega-regional negotiations under way
are reshaping the global trade landscape
• Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)
– Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New
Zealand, Peru, Singapore, United States, Viet Nam
• Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership
– Between the United States and the European Union
• Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
– Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, Republic of Korea and the 10
members of ASEAN
• China-Japan-Republic of Korea Free Trade Agreement
• European Union-Japan Free Trade Agreement
• These processes aim to create large economically integrated areas
at trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific levels
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These mega-negotiations seek to link
the world’s three major “factories”
European Union-Japan Free
Trade Agreement
Trans-Pacific
Partnership
Transatlantic
Trade and
Investment
Partnership
Regional
Comprehens
ive
Economic
Partnership
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…but in LAC the development model is reaching
boundaries
Economic
• Better macroeconomic indicators: international reserves, low public debt,
low inflation but with less fiscal space
• Growth based on consumption and exports of natural resources not on
investment
• Governance of natural resources should be a priority
• Export based structures are limited: 23% to 1.4% and imports > exports
• Productive structure is based on static comparative advantages and lags in
innovation, science and technology
Social
• Improving poverty rates but reductions have reached a plateau
• High labour market informality with low productivity
• Segregation: urban/ public vs private goods
Environmental
• Energy and water: scarcity-Land degradation and biodiversity loss
• High incidence of natural disasters
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Growth is more based on consumption and net
exports rather than on investment
LAC: GDP and determinants of growth, 2012-2013
(Percentages based on dlls of 2005)
LAC: Exports values of goods 2000-2013 (Percentages)
30
26.9
23.3
23.5
20.3 19.1
20.2
20
15.8
12.7
8.9
10
1.4 1.5
1.2
0
-4.0
-10
-20
-21.9
Fuente: Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), sobre la base de cifras oficiales.
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2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
-30
Poverty and extreme poverty are at their
lowest rates in 20 years but LAC remains as the
most unequal region in the world
LATIN AMERICA: POVERTY AND INDIGENCE, 1980-2012 a
(Percentages)
LATIN AMERICA AND OTHER REGIONS OF THE WORLD: GINI
CONCENTRATION COEFFICIENT, AROUND 2009 a
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Latin America and the Caribbean: quantifying
the set of targets
Source:: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of CEPALSTAT and special tabulations of data from
household surveys
conducted in the respective
countries.
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COOPERATION
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… And faces several emerging challenges
• The demographic transition is changing the development profile: some
societies are still enjoying a demographic dividend, while others are
entering the ageing process
• Urbanization with segregation: megacities, medium-sized cities
contains 80% of the population, public vs private goods
• Public safety has emerged as one of the main issues of concern in Latin
America and the Caribbean
• Climate change and vulnerability (SIDS) and risks related to disasters
are emerging as critical issues for the region
• The official development assistance to middle-income countries is
declining: fiscal space is stretching
• Fiscal policies: spending and taxation should become more progressive
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Towards the future we want: a regional
perspective of Post 2015 agenda
• Fulfillment of MDGs: necessary but not sufficient
• From basic needs to closing structural gaps
• Move from national- developing-countries-oriented targets
to universal objectives, with revived metrics
• Equality, sustainability and productivity at the center
• The post-2015 development agenda requires a global
financing and technology transfer covenant
• Concepts with a long-term, rights-based approach
• The goal: more resilient, self-sufficient, secure and balanced
economies
• Sustained shared prosperity
• Transparent, accountable global governance; rule of law
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….Makes more critical the role of the regional space
• Complementarities between global and regional
institutions, in an asymmetric international context
• Protection of the weaker players (SIDS, Landlocked,
LDCs)
• A greater sense of belonging to regional and
subregional institutions (CELAC, UNASUR, Mercosur,
CAN, SICA and CARICOM)
• With interdependence, cooperation is shifting
towards the subregional and regional levels
• Deeper intra-regional integration: 19% regional (25%
Central America; 25% Mercosur; 4% Pacific Alliance
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Cooperation between regions: social issues
Social Issues
• BRICS. Member of think tanks network on sustainable
development in the BRICS countries.
• MDG indicators: the Cost of Hunger in Africa (COHA)
AU, WFP, UNECA.
• Technical assistance to adapt a methodology in the
African context and implement national studies.
• Social protection. Participation in interregional
studies and disseminating LAC policy experiences to
other regions. Specially on CCT programmes.
• e-health and e-education. Disseminating best
• practices and promoting networking on
• the use of information and communications
technologies in social issues.
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Cooperation between regions: population
REDATAM: Promoting the
use and analysis of
information on censuses
and surveys
ACCESS TO THE REDATAM SERVER FOR ON-LINE
PROCESSING, 2011-2013
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Cooperation between regions: environment
• Access to information, environmental justice and participation:
•
In the framework of the application of Principle 10 of the Rio Declaration on
Environment and Development in Latin American and the Caribbean (Rio, 2012),
ECLAC and the Aarhus Secretariat (ECE) have initiated a permanent collaborative
work to exchange experiences and deepener environmental democracy.
• Climate Change:
•
“The United Nations Regional Commissions and the
Climate Change Challenges” (2009)
Joint side events at the Conferences of the Parties to the UNFCCC
• Human Settlements:
•
•
Joint Project “Eco-efficient and sustainable urban infrastructure development in Asia
and Latin America” (ESCAP - ECLAC - UN-HABITAT):
14 case studies, 2 Seminars (Bangkok & Santiago)
“Are we building competitive and livable cities?
Guidelines for developing eco-efficient and socially
inclusive infrastructure” (2011)
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Cooperation on Natural Disasters:
• In the last few years ECLAC has shared its knowledge on the economic, social and
environmental effects and impacts of disaster with some regional commissions.
ECLAC conducted trainings of its damages and losses methodology in ESCAP and
ECA.
• ECLAC was invited by ESCAP to design and implement the UN Development
Account project: “Enhancing knowledge and capacity to manage disaster risk for
a resilient future in Asia and the Pacific” (2014-2017)
• ECLAC has the leading role on training in its methodology the relevant
authorities of the targeted countries, mainly small islands and poor countries of
Asia highly exposed to disaster risks.
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There is potential for further inter-regional
cooperation
 Governance of natural resources
 Assessment and risk reduction of natural disasters to build
resilience
 Exchange of experiences on green technology
 Getting ready for the big data revolution and national
accounting beyond GDP
 Sharing criteria and experiences on FDI
 Contributing to a multilateral global deal for financial and
trade inclusion
 Exchange of urbanization process
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SDGs: an oportunity for inter-regional cooperation
• Right-based –universal approach
• Erradication of extreme extreme poverty is possible in
the next decade with productivity and decent jobs
• Equality at the center, in particular women autonomy
• A technological paradigm shift towards sustainable
development.
• Transformational-universal goals & targets are needed
• Universal global partnerships (financing, technologies,
trade)
• Critical aspirations of society towards shared prosperity
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