Transcript Does Association Imply Causation? • Sometimes, but not always! Look at example 2.42 on page 149 (section 2.6, Explaining Causation) for several x,y.

Does Association Imply Causation?
• Sometimes, but not always! Look at example 2.42 on
page 149 (section 2.6, Explaining Causation) for several
x,y variables where association was found - some are
causal, others are not.
• The figure 2.29 gives three possible scenarios explaining
a found association between a response variable y and
an explanatory variable x:
• Association between x and y can certainly be because
changes in x cause y to change - but even when
causation is present, there are still other variables
possibly involved in the relationship. (See #1 in Ex. 2.42)
• Be careful of applying a causal relationship between x
and y in one setting to a different setting: (#2 shows a
causal relationship in rats - does it extend to humans?)
• Common response is an example of how a "lurking
variable" can influence both x and y, creating the
association between them (See #3)
• Confounding between two variables arises when their
effects on the response cannot be distinguished from
each other - the confounding variables can either be
explanatory or lurking… (See #5)
Lurking variables
•A lurking variable is a variable not included in the study design that
does have an effect on the variables studied.
•Lurking variables can falsely suggest a relationship.
–What is the lurking variable in these two examples?
• Strong positive association between
number of firefighters at a fire site and the
amount of damage a fire does.
– Negative association between moderate
amounts of wine drinking and death rates
from heart disease in developed nations.
Vocabulary: lurking vs. confounding
• A lurking variable is a variable that is not among the explanatory or
response variables in a study and yet may influence the
interpretation of relationships among those variables.
• Two variables are confounded when their effects on a response
variable cannot be distinguished from each other. The confounded
variables may be either explanatory variables or lurking variables.
• But you often see them used interchangeably…
Association and causation
• Association, however strong, does NOT imply causation.
• Only careful experimentation can show causation - but see Examples
2.43 and 2.44
Not all examples are so obvious…
Establishing causation
It appears that lung cancer is associated with smoking.
How do we know that both of these variables are not being affected by an
unobserved third (lurking) variable?
For instance, what if there is a genetic predisposition that causes people to
both get lung cancer and become addicted to smoking, but the smoking itself
doesn’t CAUSE lung cancer?
We can evaluate the association using the
following criteria:
1) The association is strong.
2) The association is consistent.
3) Higher doses are associated with stronger
responses.
4) Alleged cause precedes the effect.
5) The alleged cause is plausible.
HW: read 2.6, go over all the examples in the section
(esp. 2.43, 2.44) and then look at # 2.133-2.145