Transcript Recent efforts by Mexico to measure migration flows and stocks Alfredo Bustos (INEGI-Mex) Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics Geneva, 17-19 October 2012

Recent efforts by Mexico to measure
migration flows and stocks
Alfredo Bustos (INEGI-Mex)
Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on
Migration Statistics
Geneva, 17-19 October 2012
Summary
• Focus on use of different sources for the study of migration.
• Flows
– From 2006, quarterly LFS has been used to follow changes in household
composition, specially via migration.
– Arrivals or departures of dwellers over 3-months are recorded.
– Quarterly birth-, death-and migration-rates produced.
• Stocks
– For emigrants, look at administrative “paper trail” in destination countries.
– Example, NCHS information regarding the mother’s place of birth.
– Combine with ACS’ birth-rates and age-sex structures for the Mexico-born
population residing in the USA to obtain estimate for that population size.
• On-going work that could be used in other regions.
Layout
• Flows: ENOE, Mexico’s quarterly labour force
survey
• Stocks: ACS plus Birth Certificate data
FLOWS: ENOE, MEXICO'S QUARTERLY
LABOUR FORCE SURVEY
ENOE
One of the longest-running statistical projects in
the country.
• Main purpose, to produce national and statelevel quarterly unemployment rates.
– Information collected continuously over threemonth periods.
– Sample size fixed at 120,060 dwellings every
quarter.
– New entries are randomly selected with unequal
probabilities from stratified sampling frame.
Rotation pattern
• Each quarter, 20% of households leave sample after
completing five-interview tour,
• replaced by new (semi-)panel with same size,
• remains in sample for five consecutive rounds of
interviews, one quarter apart.
• Hence, 80% quarter-to-quarter sample overlap.
• Useful in determining quarterly change patterns in
– household composition,
– occupational status of individuals,
– etc.
Rotation Pattern
Common sample in two successive quarters due to ENOE's Rotation Pattern
Information Collected
Monitoring Household Composition
Interested in learning about people who:
• are no longer part of the household because
of
– death or
– emigration, or
• join as new members of the household by
reason of
– birth or
– immigration.
New Panel's First Interview
In addition to job data, initial roster of individuals in
each household is developed. Recording, among
other socio-demographic variables,
• place of birth,
• age,
• sex,
• relationship to head of household,
• educational characteristics (for human-capital
studies),
http://www.inegi.org.mx/est/contenidos/proyectos/encuestas/hogares/regulares/enoe/default.aspx?\&\_s=est\&\_c=14731
Subsequent Interviews
Information for immigrants includes
•
Former place of residence (state or country),
•
socio-demographic characteristics,
•
reasons for migrating:
–
–
–
–
–
–
work or study,
marriage or divorce,
health reasons,
joining the family group,
environmental
violence, criminal or social.
Subsequent Interviews
Information for emigrants includes
•
Place of destination (state or country),
•
reasons for migrating
–
–
–
–
–
work or study,
marriage or divorce,
health reasons,
joining the family group,
violence, criminal or social.
Consequences of Rotation Pattern
Expansion factors
Must take into account:
• Changes in population size.
• Expand to 80% of population size, at best.
• Differential non-response.
Consequences for Immigration
Rt  
iS
yit

(h)
it
• Estimates total number of immigrants received by
households over one quarter.
• In other words, households are considered "at
risk" of receiving one or more migrants.
– Use expansion factors for households
– Immigration shown relative to population size.
Numerical Results
Quarterly Net Migration Rates in Mexico,
2006-2012.
2006-II
2006-IV
2007-II
2007-IV
2008-II
2008-IV
2009-II
2009-IV
2010-II
2010-IV
http://www.inegi.org.mx/inegi/contenidos/espanol/prensa/Boletines/muestra3.asp?tema=22&s=inegi&c=279
2011-II 2011-IV
2012-II
Year-over-Year Job Growth in Metropolitan
Areas, USA, 2001-2011
(Natural Resources, Mining, Construction)
Year-over-Year Job Growth Urban USA
15
10
5
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
-5
-10
-15
-20
Source: http://www.pittsburghtoday.org/view_economy_job_growth_years_change.html, Aug. 3rd, 2011.
Results.
• Declining trend in the number of out migrants
from 2006
– Burst of the housing bubble in the US?
• Stable situation for immigration, includes
return migrants.
• Distinct seasonal pattern exhibited by both
out- and in-migrants over the same period
– Vanishes toward the end. Multiplicative
seasonality?
Age and Sex Structure
Age and Sex Structure of International
Out-migrants in Mexico, 2006-2009.
• Low frequency of inter-state migration
difficults production of reliable estimates for
greater geographical disaggregation.
– Age and sex characteristics of the migrant
population, stable.
– When records over the 2006-2009 period are
pooled, age-sex structures may be produced.
• Recent Mexican emigration is predominantly
male and occurs mainly at working ages.
Age and Sex Structure of International
Out-migrants in Mexico, 2006-2011.
STOCKS: ACS PLUS BIRTH
CERTIFICATE DATA
US Census: Stand up and be counted?
By Laura Trevelyan
BBC News, New York
2010 is census year in America - and there is a lot riding on this drive to count everyone
in the country. Some $400bn (£251bn) of federal money is allocated according to the
population in each of the 50 states, and so are Congressional seats.
“ If you want better services, allow yourself to be counted, I am guaranteeing that
nothing bad will happen to you ”
Ruben Diaz Jr, Bronx Borough president
“ I now how afraid the people are, they are hiding, and they believe the police force is
looking for them ”
Carlos Soto
Sources
• Population Censuses
• Population projections
• Expansion factors
• Surveys
• Public data
– Births
– School attendance
– Health
– Etc.
Total births in USA, 1990-2006
4300000
4250000
4200000
4150000
4100000
4050000
4000000
3950000
3900000
3850000
3800000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Source: Own from NCHS-CDC data bases, 1990-2006
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Births in the USA, 1997-2006
1997
Total number of
births in USA
Year-to-year
differences
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
3,884,329 3,945,192 3,963,465 4,063,823 4,031,531 4,027,376 4,096,092 4,118,907 4,145,619 4,273,225
-10,545
60,863
18,273
100,358
-32,292
-4,155
68,716
22,815
26,712
127,606
Births to Mexico-born women
Mothers place of
residence: Total
307,680
315,906
336,525
370,191
396,147
407,910
425,911
440,723
451,305
526,500
Mothers place of
residence:
México
2,381
2,697
2,950
3,994
4,559
4,813
5,278
5,658
5,921
7,777
Mothers place of
residence: USA
305,299
313,209
333,575
366,197
391,588
403,097
420,633
435,065
445,384
518,723
Note: 2005-2006 births to México-born women estimated
Source: Own from NCHS-CDC data bases, 1997-2006
Births to Mexico-born women
600,000
500,000
400,000
Mothers place
of residence:
Total
300,000
Mothers place
of residence:
México
200,000
Mothers place
of residence:
USA
100,000
0
1,997
1,998
1,999
2,000
2,001
2,002
Note: 2005-2006 values were estimated
Source: Own from NCHS-CDC data bases, 1990-2006
2,003
2,004
2,005
2,006
Mexico-born fertility in the United
States, avge. 2005-2007
FERTILITY
Total
Precision
Mexicoborn
Precision
Women 15 to 50 years(1)
75,852,755
+/-14,666
3,717,791
+/-18,458
Women 15 to 50 years who
had a birth in the past
12 months (1)
4,171,764
+/-20,119
352,152
+/-6,247
Ratio
5.50%
Birth Certificates (2)*
4,273,225
Ratio
5.63%
9.47%
NA
435,065 (3)
NA
11.70%
Source
(1) Gregg Robinson, Private communication: USBC, 2005-2007 American Community Survey 3-Year
Estimates, American Community Survey (ACS), Geographic Area: United States, Country of
Birth: Mexico
(2) Own from NCHS-CDC data bases, 1990-2006
(3) 2004 value
(*) Birth certificate data not corrected for multiple births
Mexico-born fertility in the United
States, avge. 2005-2007
FERTILITY
Total
Precision
Mexicoborn
Precision
Women 15 to 50 years(1)
75,871,980
NA
3,763,363
NA
Women 15 to 50 years who
had a birth in the past
12 months (1)
4,188,747
NA
357,860
NA
Ratio
5.52%
Birth Certificates (2)
4,273,225
Ratio
5.63%
9.51%
NA
435,065 (3)
NA
11.56%
Source:
(1) Data Ferret, USBC, 2005-2007 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates, American Community Survey
(ACS), Geographic Area: United States, Country of Birth: Mexico
(2) Own from NCHS-CDC data bases, 1990-2006
(3) 2004 value
(*) Birth certificate data not corrected for multiple births
Data deficiencies
Necessary assumptions:
• Birth data-bases for 2005-2006 did not include the mother’s place of birth.
– Birth-rates or sex-age structures of the Mexico-born population did not change much
over a short period. I used the assumption about birth-rates.
– Estimate the 2004 population, not available for ACS in the Data Ferret on-line tool.
• Timing is not equal.
– Birth rates from question to women about births in past 12 months (from July 1 of
survey year).
– NCHS births are for a calendar year (January - December).
• Numbers refer to same concept
– ACS numbers refer to women while NCHS ones to children. Allow for multiple births.
• Some Mexican migrants do not respond to the census and/or the ACS, but
still bear children.
– Are they similar to the rest in this respect? or is there a bias?
– There is life after censuses and surveys.
1st. Rough Preliminary Results
(DO NOT QUOTE)
Estimated
Births to México- Women 15 to 50 México-born
years
born women, 15-50,
population
2006
living in the
(B)= A1/A2
(A)
USA, 2004
(C)=B1/B2
1
434,415 (1)
2
9.51% (2)
ACS estimated
México-born
population
living in the
USA, 2006
4,568,438 (3) 14,080,738 (3) 11,599,353 (1)
32.44% (2)
100%
Source:
(1) Own calculations based on NCHS birth certificate data-bases, 2004
(2) Data Ferret, ACS, 2005-2007 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates
(3) Own calculations, as shown.
82.38% (3)
ACS Fertility
Estimated Birth Rates by Age and Total Fertility Rate for Women Born in Mexico based on
American Community Survey Question on Births in the Previous Year
Age
Total, 15 to 44
Between 15 and 19
Between 20 and 24
Between 25 and 29
Between 30 and 34
Between 35 and 39
Between 40 and 44
Female
population
born in Mexico
Yes
No
Birth rate
3,282,345
354,779
2,927,566
108.1
289,828
460,121
630,694
701,257
667,416
533,029
23,992
81,975
104,561
84,147
46,677
13,427
265,836
378,146
526,133
617,110
620,739
519,602
82.8
178.2
165.8
120.0
69.9
25.2
Total Fertility Rate
Source: ACS 2005-2007 Public Use file
ACS question 19: "Have you given birth to any children in the past 12 months"
Birth in last year:
3209.2
Births to Mexico-born women, 2006
Total
Age group
Births
(2004)
NCHS (1)
Birth-rates
(2006)
ACS (2)
Mexicoborn
women by
age group
(2004)
(3)=(1)/(2)
15-50
434,415
9.51%
4,568,438
by age group
15-19
50,461
8.28%
609,579
20-24
25-29
122,682
124,534
17.82%
688,607
16.58%
751,168
30-34
88,889
12.00%
740,775
35-39
39,412
40-44
8,084
6.99%
2.52%
563,537
320,921
Source:
(1) Own calculations based on NCHS birth certificate data-bases, 2004
(2) Data Ferret, ACS, 2005-2007 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates
(3) Own calculations, as shown.
45-50
353
NEW FIGURE
0.64% FOR TOTAL,
15-50
55,112
3,729,698
2nd. Rough Preliminary Results
(DO NOT QUOTE)
Estimated
Births to MéxicoMéxico-born
born women, 15-50, Women 15 to 50
population
2006
years
living in the
(A)
USA, 2004
(C)=B1/B2
1
434,415 (1)
3,729,698 (3)
2
9.51% (2)
32.44% (2)
ACS estimated
México-born
population
living in the
USA, 2006
11,495,592(3) 11,599,353 (1)
100%
Source:
(1) Own calculations based on NCHS birth certificate data-bases, 2004
(2) Data Ferret, ACS, 2005-2007 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates
(3) Own calculations, as shown.
100.90% (3)
Net International Migration for Mexico
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
-50,000
-100,000
-150,000
-200,000
-250,000
-300,000
-350,000
-400,000
-450,000
-500,000
ACS + ENOE
2007
2008
2009
2010
Closing
• Use of LFS and of administrative records in study of
Mexico international migration discussed.
• Rotation factor of Mexican LFS useful in determining
changes in household composition, specifically by way
of migration.
• Use of birth data suggested in the study of migration if
migration records unavailable (i.e., undocumented
migration or integration process as in Europe).
• Use of other administrative data worth looking into.
• The proposal put forward may be of interest to
countries in the region in view of the availability of
adequate administrative records.