Space Weather Impacts and Some Schemes for Thinking About Them Delores Knipp Department of Physics, USAF Academy Significant Contributions from Space Weather Colleagues Especially Mr Bill.
Download ReportTranscript Space Weather Impacts and Some Schemes for Thinking About Them Delores Knipp Department of Physics, USAF Academy Significant Contributions from Space Weather Colleagues Especially Mr Bill.
Space Weather Impacts and Some Schemes for Thinking About Them Delores Knipp Department of Physics, USAF Academy Significant Contributions from Space Weather Colleagues Especially Mr Bill Murtagh (NOAA/SEC) and Dr Greg Ginet (USAF/AFRL) Framework(s) for Impacts Heliocentric User-centric Solar Emissions Who cares? Geocentric Signals and Systems Space Weather vs Space Environment Where on Earth? Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Heliocentric--Solar Emissions Electromagnetic Radiation High Energy Charged Particles B Field/ Plasma ARRIVAL: 8 min DURATION: 1-2 HOURS ARRIVAL: 15 MIN TO FEW HOURS DURATION: HOURS-DAYS ARRIVAL: 2-3 DAYS DURATION: DAYS EFFECTS EFFECTS Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 EFFECTS Disturbed Solar Emissions Flares Enhanced Electromagnetic Radiation ARRIVAL: 8 min DURATION: 1-2 HOURS EFFECTS • HF RADIO BLACKOUT • SATCOM INTERFERENCE • RADAR INTERFERENCE • IMAGE INTERFERENCE Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 High Energy Charged Particles Enhanced B Field/ Plasma Clouds ARRIVAL: 15 MIN TO FEW HOURS DURATION: HOURS-DAYS ARRIVAL: 2-3 DAYS DURATION: DAYS EFFECTS EFFECTS Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Courtesy Lockheed Martin Disturbed Solar Emissions Mass Ejections Flares Enhanced Electromagnetic Radiation ARRIVAL: 8 min DURATION: 1-2 HOURS EFFECTS Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 High Energy Charged Particles Enhanced B Field/ Plasma Clouds ARRIVAL: 15 MIN TO FEW HOURS DURATION: HOURS-DAYS ARRIVAL: 2-3 DAYS DURATION: DAYS EFFECTS EFFECTS • HIGH-LATITUDE HF RADIO BLACKOUT • SATELLITE DISORIENTATION • SPACECRAFT DAMAGE • FALSE SENSOR READINGS • LAUNCH PAYLOAD FAILURE • RADIATION EXPOSURE EFFECTS Disturbed Solar Emissions Helicity/Mass Ejections Enhanced Electromagnetic Radiation ARRIVAL: 8 min DURATION: 1-2 HOURS EFFECTS Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 High Energy Charged Particles Enhanced B Field/ Plasma Clouds ARRIVAL: 15 MIN TO FEW HOURS DURATION: HOURS-DAYS ARRIVAL: 2-3 DAYS DURATION: DAYS EFFECTS EFFECTS • HF RADIO BLACKOUT • SATELLITE ORBIT DECAY • RADAR FALSE TARGETS • SATCOM INTERFERENCE • POWER GRID DISTURBANCES Pause for Inquiry—How are these monitored? Electromagnetic Radiation High Energy Charged Particles B Field/ Plasma ARRIVAL: 8 min DURATION: 1-2 HOURS ARRIVAL: 15 MIN TO FEW HOURS DURATION: HOURS-DAYS ARRIVAL: 2-3 DAYS DURATION: DAYS MONITORS Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 MONITORS MONITORS User-centric—Who Cares? National and International Level Users SIGNAL EFFECTS Military SYSTEM EFFECTS Dual Civil Scintillations Ionospheric Currents Navigation/Communications Ground Induced Currents Electron Density Profiles—Comm and Nav Neutral Atmosphere Variations—Satellite Drag Space Radiation—System and Human Exposure Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Geocentric—Where on Earth? SPACE ENVIRONMENT SPACE WEATHER SYSTEM EFFECTS Orbital SIGNAL EFFECTS Sub-orbital HEO High Mid-Latitude Ionospheric Low Meso/Stratospheric MEO Tropospheric BEO GEO LEO Thermospheric Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Ground Polar Auroral Sub Auroral Equatorial Worldwide Beyond, Geostationary, Highly Eccentric, Medium, Low Earth Orbit BEO ACE, SOHO POLAR GPS POES GOES Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Geocentric—Where on Earth? SIGNAL EFFECTS Orbital SYSTEM EFFECTS Sub-orbital HEO High Thermospheric Mid-Latitude Ionospheric Low Meso/Stratospheric MEO Tropospheric BEO GEO LEO Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Ground Polar Auroral Sub Auroral Equatorial Worldwide BEO--Beyond Earth Orbit Energetic Particles-Solar Arrays (SOHO) SOHO’s Solar Array Degradation History Solar array degradation: Net loss in two week period 1.1% Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 BEO--Beyond Earth Orbit SYSTEM EFFECTS Energetic Particles-DEEP Space Missions Mars Odyssey - Spacecraft entered safe mode during the severe radiation storm. The MARIE instrument on the Mars Odyssey had a temperature red alarm leading to power-off on October 28. The instrument did not recover. Stardust - Comet mission went into safe mode due to read errors; recovered. SMART-1 - Auto shutdown of engine due to radiation levels in lunar transfer orbit. Reported a total of 3 shutdowns; decided not to thrust below altitude of 104 km. Mars Explorer Rover - Spacecraft entered “Sun Idle” mode due to excessive star tracker events. Waited out event and recovered. Microwave Anisotropy Probe - Spacecraft star tracker reset, and backup tracker autonomously turned on. Prime tracker recovered. Mars Express - Spacecraft had to use gyroscopes for stabilization, due to loss of stars as reference points. The radiation storm blinded the orbiter's star trackers for 15 hours. The flares also delayed a scheduled Beagle 2 checkout procedure. *Information from NOAA SEC ASP Service Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium 2005 Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms Geocentric—Where on Earth? SIGNAL EFFECTS Orbital BEO Edge of Space SYSTEM EFFECTS Sub-orbital Ionospheric HEO Meso/Stratospheric MEO Tropospheric LEO Polar Thermospheric GEO Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Ground High Mid-Latitude Low Auroral Sub Auroral Equatorial Worldwide GEO, HEO and MEO Impacts Categorized by Region GEO, HEO, MEO GEO, HEO, MEO Space and Radiation Belt Hazards • Radiation degradation and electronics upsets • Surface and internal charging / discharging Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 • Human tissue damage Magnetic Field Anomalies • Satellites in these orbits are usually immersed in Earths northward directed field • During extreme magnetopause compression the satellites could sense solar wind field of various orientations. GEO and HEO—Geostationary and Highly Eccentric Earth Orbit SYSTEM EFFECTS Oct-Nov 2003 Satellite Impacts Kodama, Data Relay Test Satellite (DRTS) - Went into safe mode during a severe (S4) solar radiation storm. The DRTS is a geostationary communications satellite that relays data among Low Earth Orbit (300-1,000 km altitude) spacecraft (including the International Space Station) and ground stations. GOES-9, 10 and 12 - High bit error rates (9 and 10) and magnetic torquers disabled (12) due to solar activity. Inmarsat (fleet of 9 geosynchronous satellites) - Controllers at their Satellite Control Centre had to quickly react to the solar activity to control Inmarsat’s fleet of geosynchronous satellites. Two experienced speed increases in momentum wheels requiring firing of thrusters, and one had outage when its CPU tripped out. TV and Pay Radio Satellite Services: TV satellite controllers resorted to "manual attitude control" for 18-hour to 24-hour periods due to magnetopause crossing events that affected the attitude controller of two or more of their fleet. Pay radio satellite had several short-lived periods where they lost satellite lock. *Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 CLUSTER Solar Array Panel Degradation ~1.4% Provided by NASA Space Science Mission Operations Put SAMPEX Data Here Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Energetic Electrons in the Radiation Belts Put SAMPEX Data Here Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 GEO and HEO—Geostationary and Highly Eccentric Earth Orbit SYSTEM EFFECTS High Speed Solar Wind and “Killer Electrons” Courtesy Dan Baker Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 BEO--Beyond Earth Orbit SYSTEM EFFECTS Energetic Particles-Star Trackers (SOHO) Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 C2 MOS Capacitor damaged by energetic particles. The capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL) Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Geocentric—Where on Earth? SYSTEM EFFECTS Orbital BEO Edge of Space SIGNAL EFFECTS Sub-orbital Ionospheric HEO Meso/Stratospheric MEO Tropospheric LEO Polar Thermospheric GEO Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Ground High Mid-Latitude Low Auroral Sub Auroral Equatorial Worldwide LEO--Low Earth Orbit Impacts Categorized by Region LEO Radiation Belts Space and Radiation Belt Hazards • Radiation degradation and electronics upsets • Surface and internal charging / discharging Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 •Delores Human tissue damage Sun-Atmosphere Thermospheric Hazards • Satellite Drag • Atomic Oxygen Damage LEO--Low Earth Orbit SYSTEM EFFECTS Oct-Nov 2003 Satellite Impacts DMSP F16 - SSIES sensor lost data twice, on October 28 and November 03; Microwave sounder lost oscillator; Switched to redundant system. CHANDRA - Observations halted on several occasions during the OctoberNovember activity, including an extended outage from October 28 – November 01. NOAA-17 spacecraft experienced a significant problem with the scan motors of the AMSU-A1. The instrument was powered down and no recovery efforts are planned. Aqua, Landsat, Terra, TOMS, TRMM - NASA’s Earth Sciences Mission Office directed all instruments on these five spacecraft be turned off or safed due to the extreme solar storm prediction (October 29). UARS/HALOE - Turn on of the instrument was delayed due to solar activity. *Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 LEO--Low Earth Orbit SYSTEM EFFECTS Oct-Nov 2003 International Space Station Impacts Astronauts on the International Space Station (ISS) were directed to take shelter in the service module during the peak exposure intervals of the October 28-30 radiation storms. NASA also stowed the 56-foot-long Space Station Remote Manipulator System (robotic arm) during this period to prevent damage to this billion-dollar instrument. 400 ISS Alttitude Before Event ISS Altitude During Event ISS Altitude After Event 395 Courtesy of NASA 390 Alt (km) ISS altitude loss as a result of atmospheric drag 385 380 375 *Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Date/Time (UTC) ec -2 00 3 9D ec -2 00 3 2D N ov -2 00 3 25 - N ov -2 00 3 18 - N ov -2 00 3 11 - 4N ov - 20 03 00 3 -2 28 -O ct 00 3 -2 21 -O ct 00 3 -2 14 -O ct ct -2 00 3 7O 20 03 Se p30 - Intense Space Weather Storms 370 Space Environment--Low Earth Orbit Samples exposed on LDEF Atomic Oxygen reactions with surfaces on the ISS (Courtesy NASA) Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Space Environment--Low Earth Orbit SYSTEM EFFECTS Collisions with Space Debris and Meteoroids During Damage to Hubble Solar Array from Meteoroid Impact Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Space Environment--South Atlantic Anomaly Distribution of error events recorded in memory chips aboard a satellite. These Single Event Upset (SEU) events are caused by high energy cosmic rays interacting in the silicon - their distribution closely follows that of the increased radiation activity in the SAA region. Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Geocentric—Where on Earth? SYSTEM EFFECTS Orbital BEO Edge of Space SIGNAL EFFECTS Sub-orbital Ionospheric HEO Meso/Stratospheric MEO Tropospheric Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Ground Polar Thermospheric GEO LEO Atmospheric High Mid-Latitude Low Auroral Sub Auroral Equatorial Worldwide Ionosphere Impacts Categorized by Region Direct Solar Impacts X-ray and EUV changes to Ionospheric Electron Density Profiles Auroral And Polar Region Auroral Region Impacts • Auroral Clutter • False Radar Detection • Communication Outages Ionosphere Low and Mid Latitude Radiation Belt Impacts • Energetic Particles in South Atlantic Anomaly • Chemistry Changes Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Ionospheric Impacts • Comm/Nav link degradation and outage • Surveillance clutter/mischaracterization • HF propagation • Instabilities in Electro Density Profiles Space Environment-- Ionosphere Radio Communications MUF LUF Absorption Refraction Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Scattering Transmission Space Environment-- Ionosphere Radio Communications Useable Frequency Changes with Local Time Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Space Weather Ionospheric HF Communications Useable Frequency Closes on Dayside During Solar Flares Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Polar, Auroral, Equatorial Ionosphere SATCOM Communications POLAR CAP PATCHES AURORAL IRREGULARITIES SATCOM GPS PLASMA BUBBLES EQUATORIAL F LAYER ANOMALIES SBR Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 DAY NIGHT MAGNETIC EQUATOR GPS SATCOM Image from S Basu, AFRL High Latitude Ionospheric HF Communications SIGNALS EFFECTS Oct-Nov 2003 Polar Cap Communication Outage The Antarctic science groups and staff rely on MacRelay radio operations to provide essential HF radio communications between McMurdo Station and remote sites on the Antarctic. MacRelay is also responsible for communication links with aircraft and ships supporting the United States Antarctic Program. MacRelay experienced over 130 hours of HF communication blackout during the October – November activity. McMurdo staff developed a contingency plan to use Iridium satellite phones as backup during HF outages. MacRelay was made aware that space weather was causing significant HF blackout conditions, allowing them to implement contingency plans. *Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Mid and Low-Latitude-Ionosphere SIGNAL EFFECTS Oct-Nov Total Electron Content Variations *Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 SIGNAL EFFECTS Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Scintillations--Low-Latitude-Ionosphere Equatorial F-region -Ionosphere Jicamarca 50 MHz Radar Data Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Geocentric—Where on Earth? SYSTEM EFFECTS Orbital SIGNAL EFFECTS Sub-orbital BEO Thermospheric GEO Ionospheric HEO Meso/Stratospheric MEO Tropospheric LEO Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium Atmospheric Ground Polar High Mid-Latitude Low Auroral Sub Auroral Equatorial Worldwide ASP 2005 Strato, Tropo Spheres SYSTEM EFFECTS Faculae increase UV solar output Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Solar UV Climate Connection Climate Modeling by J Haigh, Imperial College • Analysis of NCEP zonal winds reveals that when the sun is more active the sub-tropical jets are weaker and positioned nearer the poles • This signal is qualitatively similar to the results of GCM simulations with enhanced solar UV (and ozone) which increases static stability in the tropical regions •In a simplified GCM, imposed stratospheric warming, and associated lowering of the tropopause, weakens the jets and storm-track eddies. •Equatorial stratospheric warming displaces the jets polewards while uniform or polar warming displaces them markedly equatorwards. •Baroclinic lifecycle runs show that baroclinic waves reinforce the zonal wind anomalies. Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Strato, Tropo Spheres SYSTEM EFFECTS Flight Radiation Impacts During Oct-Nov 2003 *Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Geocentric—Where on Earth? SYSTEM EFFECTS Orbital SIGNAL EFFECTS Sub-orbital BEO Thermospheric GEO Ionospheric HEO Meso/Stratospheric MEO Tropospheric LEO Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Atmospheric Ground Polar High Mid-Latitude Low Auroral Sub Auroral Equatorial Worldwide Polar, Auroral, Equatorial Ionosphere SATCOM Communications POLAR CAP PATCHES AURORAL IRREGULARITIES SATCOM GPS PLASMA BUBBLES EQUATORIAL F LAYER ANOMALIES SBR Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 DAY NIGHT MAGNETIC EQUATOR GPS SATCOM Image from S Basu, AFRL Polar Communications Outages Over a Dozen Transpolar Flights Re-routed Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Mid-latitude Radio Sun Echoes Sun in Field of View Other radio frequency interference reported by cell phone tower operators during solar storms (Flares) Search and Rescue Frequencies report radiofrequency interference in side lobes Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 IMAGE Far UV Oct 29 2003 Power Distribution Concerns Power companies in North America experienced some problems. Electrical companies took considerable effort to prepare and be aware. Impacts and actions reported: •Less use and switching between systems; •High levels of neutral current observed at stations throughout the country; •Tripped capacitor in the northwest (known to be GIC susceptible); •Transformer heating in the east – precautions were implemented; •‘Growling’ transformer that was backed down to help cool it down. GIC impacts were more significant in •Northern Europe where heating in a nuclear plant transformer was reported and a power system failure occurred on October 30 in Malmo, Sweden resulting in blackout conditions. •South Africa where after-the-fact tests showed transformers exceeded maximum temperature and are being replaced Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Summary Courtesy of Lou Lanzerotti Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 THE END! Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Imapcts Categorized by Region Direct Solar Hazards • Radio, optical and Xray interference • Solar energetic particle degradation and clutter Ionospheric/Thermospheric Hazards • Comm/Nav link degradation and outage • HF propagation • Satellite Drag Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Hazards Categorized by Region Direct Solar Hazards • Radio, optical and Xray interference • Solar energetic particle degradation and clutter Auroral Region Auroral Region Hazards • Auroral Clutter • False Radar Detection Ionosphere Radiation Belts Radiation Belt Hazards • Radiation degradation and electronics upsets • Surface and internal charging / discharging Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 •Delores Human tissue damage Ionospheric/Thermospheric Hazards • Comm/Nav link degradation and outage • Surveillance clutter • HF propagation • Satellite Drag