Transcript Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Hands-on Training Workshop for LAC Asuncion, Paraguay, 14-18, August, 2006 Integration of V&A Analysis by Vute Wangwacharakul.

Vulnerability and Adaptation
Assessment Hands-on
Training Workshop for LAC
Asuncion, Paraguay, 14-18, August, 2006
Integration of V&A Analysis
by
Vute Wangwacharakul
Outline
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Introduction
Integration of results
Cross sector and multi-sector integration
Setting priorities
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Vulnerability
Adaptation
Examples
Conclusions
Introduction
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Commitments
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Under Articles 4.1 and 12.1 Parties should
develop and publish their national
communications.
Guidelines
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Parties should communicate to the COP a
general description of programs containing
measures to facilitate adequate adaptation,
etc. (decision 17/CP.8)
Reporting Components
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The following categories of
impacts/vulnerability are expected to be
reported: agriculture, tourism, health, forests,
water resources, infrastructure, rangeland,
coastal regions, ecosystems and biodiversity,
wildlife, fisheries and the economy.
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Para. 34 of the Guidelines
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Non-Annex I Parties are encouraged to
provide information on their vulnerability to
the impacts of, and their adaptation to,
climate change in key vulnerable areas.
Information should include key findings, and
direct and indirect effects arising from
climate change, allowing for an integrated
analysis of the country’s vulnerability to
climate change.
“an integrated analysis”
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Two possible interpretations
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Information provided in SNC should allow for
communicating national vulnerability to climate
change in “an integrated manner”
Integrated analysis of V&A is encouraged,
particularly in the key vulnerable areas
We emphasize the second one
Integrated Assessment
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Integrated Assessment can be defined
an interdisciplinary process of
combining, interpreting and
communicating knowledge from
diverse scientific disciplines in such a
way that the whole set cause-effect
interactions of a problem can be
evaluated.
Vulnerability Assessment and
Adaptation
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Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude
and rate of climate change and variation, to which a
system is exposed, its sensitivity and its adaptive
capacity [Summary for Policy Makers (IPCC WG II)]
Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust
to climate change (including climate variability and
extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take
advantage of opportunities or to cope with the
consequences [Summary for Policy Makers (IPCC
WG II]
Why is Integration Important?
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Impacts do not happen in isolation
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Impacts in one sector can adversely or positively affect
another
Some sectors are affected directly and/or indirectly
Sector linkages could reduce the extent of the impacts
of climate change
The issues addressed are dynamic in nature
Integration is necessary for ranking vulnerabilities
and adaptations
Main Types of Integration
of Results
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Cross-sector integration
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Link related sectors (I-V-A in selected sectors;
qualitative or quantitative)
Multi-sector integration (System approach;
quantitative)
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Economy or system wide models
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Integrated assessment models
Economy-wide models (mathematic or
econometric models)
Some Integrated Assessment
Models
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IMAGE
ICLIPS
CLIMPACTS
MIASMA
AIM
Cross-sector models
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CC - water resources - agriculture
CC - temperature - mosquitoes - health
CC - temperature - heat wave - health
CC - rainfall - flood/drought - agriculture etc.
mostly quantitative
Integrating WEAP and CROPWAT
SCENARIOS
GCM
WATBAL
Streamflow
PET
SCENARIOS
Population, Development,
Technology
CE Integrating WEAP and CROPWAT RES
WEAP
CLIMATE
Crop water
Evaluation
Precip.,
demand
Planning
Temp.,
Solar Rad.
CROPWAT
Regional
irrigation
An Example:
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IAM in Cuba:
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Agriculture and water resources (considered
demographic, technology, food consumption)
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Potato yield would be dropped and worsen by
water problem and population
Technology only marginally reduced the
effects.
Changing sowing date could be good
adaptation measure for maize
Multi-sector Integration Modeling
IMAGE Model
Regional/National Economic Models
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Quantitative way to examine climate change
market impacts throughout an economy
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Problem with non-market impacts
Mostly macroeconomic models or general
equilibrium models
Require much data
Complex and can be expensive
Communication of assumptions can be a
challenge
An Example of a Regional Model
Asia Integrated Model
A More “Simple” Approach
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Add up results sector by sector
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Limited by what is known within sectors
Problem of how to integrate across multiple
end points
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Impacts may be measured with different
metrics
Need to account for many sectors
Does not capture sectoral interactions
Estimates of Damages for India
Sector
Damages ($ billions)
Agriculture
-53.2
Forestry
+0.1
Energy
-21.9
Water
-$1.2
Coastal Resources
-$1.2
Can Also Measure
Number of People Affected
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“Millions at Risk” study did this
Global burden of disease
Millions at Risk Study
At a Minimum
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Should at least qualitatively identify linkages
and possible direction of impacts
If crops can be examined, not water supply,
then identify how change in water supply
could affect agricultural production
Integration through
Setting Priorities
Vulnerability
 Adaptation
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Prioritization of Vulnerabilities
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It can be quite useful for
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Focusing adaptation measures
Monitoring
Adaptation
Examples of Adaptation Integration
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Caribbean (CPACC, GEF/WORLD BANK, CIDA)
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Integration of adaptation into national policies dealing with
risk management and into their Environment Impact
Assessment procedures.
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Mozambique (World Bank)
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Integrating Adaptation to climate change risks into Action
Plan for Poverty Reduction
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Bangladesh (CARE-CIDA)
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Climate change adaptation is mainstreamed into
sustainable development planning
Example of Adaptation Integration
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China (ADB, World Bank)
helping poor farmers adapt to drought
conditions- government undertook
integrated ecosystems managementhouse-level eco-farming integrated
renewable energy such as solar power,
vineyard cultivation and legume planting
for fixing sand and providing forage.
Process is as Important
as Outcome
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This is an expression of values, not a purely
analytic exercise
Need to include stakeholders and policy
makers
The following are tools that can be useful in
setting priorities
Whether you use qualitative or quantitative
approach, the important thing is learning-bydoing
NAPA
Process
Adaptation Policy Framework
Table 4: Ranking of priority systems/regions/climate hazards
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
C6
System/
Region/
Hazard
Social
impacts
Economic
impacts
Environmental
impacts
Political
impacts
Ranking
A
B
C
OECD Method
Table 5.5. Nepal ranking
Resource/ranking
Water resources (flooding)
Certainty of
impact
High
Timing of
impact
High
Severity of
impact
High
Importance of
resource
High
Agriculture
Human health
Biodiversity
Medium-low
Low
Low
Medium-low
Medium
?
Medium
?
?
High
High
Medium-high
Ranking Adaptations
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Screening
Multicriteria assessment
Benefit-cost analysis
Screening Matrix for Human Settlement and
Tourism Adaptation Measure in Antigua
Multicriteria Assessment
Options
Effectiveness Feasibility Cost
Score
A
3
2
2
7
B
2
4
4
10
C
5
1
3
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Benefit-Cost Analysis
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Estimate all benefits and costs in a common
metric to determine whether benefits > costs
Monetary values often used
Difficulty: what to do about non-market
benefits or uncertainties
Difficulty: requires much data and analysis
BCA Example:
Sea Walls in Kiribati
Net Present Value Calculation for Constructing Sea Walls Today for Case Study Islands
(3% rate of discount)
Present Value
of Damages
Present Value
of Seawalls
Built in 2001
Net Present
Value
(PV damages
minus PV costs)
A$13.9 million
A$6.6 million
A$0.97 million
A$5.7 million
A$5.6 million
A$2.67 million
A$1.13 million
A$1.5 million
Monetized Portion
of Damages
(2025 BG & SS)
Buariki-Naa
Bikenibeau
Land Area
What to Use
Conclusions
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Integration is important to at least identify
related impacts
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Analysis is desirable because there can be
surprises
Integration can also be useful for examining
total vulnerability and ranking vulnerabilities
It is interdisciplinary process
Conclusions
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There should be involvement of local
stakeholders, the private sector, individuals,
the research community and different levels
of government.
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Awareness raising and capacity building also
essential.