HOW WELL IS SOUTH DAKOTA PREPARING ALL STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE, CAREERS AND LIFE September 2012
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HOW WELL IS SOUTH DAKOTA PREPARING ALL STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE, CAREERS AND LIFE
September 2012
Why College- and Career-Ready Expectations for All?
The Economic Imperative:
A high school diploma is no longer enough; now, nearly every good job requires some education beyond high school and all students need to be academically prepared to compete for good jobs in the global economy.
The Equity Imperative:
Far too many students drop out or graduate from high school unprepared for success. Students in minority groups drop out and fail to attain postsecondary credentials at much higher rates than their counterparts.
The Expectations Imperative:
The bar has been set too low for too long, keeping students from reaching their full potential, closing doors and limiting their post-high school options and opportunities.
What Does it Mean to be College- and Career-Ready?
To be college- and career-ready, high school graduates must have studied a rigorous and broad curriculum anchored in the demands of postsecondary and business that is grounded in the core academic disciplines, but also consisting of other subjects that are part of a well-rounded education.
2
THE ECONOMIC IMPERATIVE
: A HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA IS NO LONGER ENOUGH FOR SUCCESS
The changing economy is accelerating the skills mismatch, as careers increasingly require some education/training beyond high school, and more developed knowledge and skills
Why College and Career Readiness Is Imperative for Our Economic Future
Employer Expectations:
Employers increasingly need their employees to use a broader set of skills than have been required in the past to meet the increasingly complex demand coming from the modernized workplace.
Skills Mismatch:
While fifty years ago a large proportion of jobs were classified as unskilled, attainable by young people with high school diplomas or less, today only one-fifth of jobs are considered unskilled. The demand for higher skilled workers has increased, while the production of higher skilled workers has remained flat.
International Advantage:
Other nations are surpassing the U.S. in improving their educational systems to increase achievement, reduce achievement gaps, and educating themselves as a way to a better economy, while the U.S. remains stagnant.
Personal Benefits:
More education is associated with higher earnings and higher rates of employment. Educational attainment isn’t just a benefit in the short-term; more education is correlated with larger projections of lifetime earnings at every level of the pipeline.
4
Employer Expectations: Education and Training and Requirements Over Time 2018 2002 1973
32% Percentage of Workforce by Education Level 40% 32% 33% 30% 28% 27% 29% 11% 10% 12% 16%
High School Graduate Some College / Associate's Degree Bachelor's & Higher High School Dropout
Source:
Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010).
Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018.
Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. ww9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf
5 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
Employer Expectations: Increased Demand for Postsecondary Education and Training
Percent Change in Employment, by Education or Training Category, 2008-18 19% 18% 18 17% 17% 13% 8% 8% 8% 8% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Source:
Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2010-11 Edition.
http://www.bls.gov/oco/oco2003.htm
6
Employer Expectations: The Rise of Middle-Skill Jobs
High-skill jobs
Occupations in the professional/technical and managerial categories. Often require four-year degrees and above
Middle-skill jobs
Occupations that include clerical, sales, construction, installation/repair, production, and transportation/material moving.
Low-skill jobs
Occupations in the service and agricultural categories.
Often require some education and training beyond high school (but typically less than a bachelor’s degree), including associate’s degrees, vocational certificates, and significant on-the-job training.
Source:
Holzer, Harry J. and Robert I. Lerman (February 2009).
The Future of Middle-Skill Jobs.
Brookings Institution. 7
The Skills Mismatch: Demand for Middle-Skill Workers Outpaces South Dakota’s Supply
I n 1950, 60% of jobs were classified as unskilled, attainable by young people with high school diplomas or less. Today, 20% of jobs are considered to be unskilled.
One result: The demand for middle- and high-skilled workers is outpacing the state’s supply of workers educated and experienced at that level. 81% of U.S. jobs are middle or high skills
(jobs that require some postsecondary education or training).
Yet only 41% of South Dakota’s adults have some postsecondary degree
(associate’s or higher).
Sources:
Carnevale, Anthony P. and Donna Desrochers (2003).
Standards for What? The Economic Roots of K-12 Reform.
Education Testing Services. http://www.learndoearn.org/For-Educators/Standards-for-What.pdf ; Skills to Compete. http://www.skills2compete.org National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org
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The Skills Mismatch: Jobs Are Going Unfilled
52% of employers reported difficulty in finding the right talent, up from 14% in 2010. This is the highest U.S. percentage reported in ManPower Group’s annual survey’s six-year history. Another 30% of companies, surveyed by McKinsey & Co, said they had job opening for six months or more because of lack of ideal/qualified candidates.
Source
: ManPower Group. (2011). 2011 Talent Shortage Survey & McKinsey Global Institute (2011).
An Economy that Works: Job Creation and America’s Future.
www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/us_jobs/index.asp & Bureau of Labor Statistics 9
International Advantage: Increased Competition from Abroad
While the benefits of graduating high school college- and career-ready and attaining some postsecondary credential affects each individual student, it also impacts our standing as a nation in an increasingly competitive global economy and workforce.
Education attainment and achievement in the U.S. have gone stagnant at a time when the global economy is demanding increased education and more complex skills – and other countries are responding.
U.S. students rank 12
th
and 24
th
in reading, 13
th
in science, in math on international testing.
Source:
OECD,
PISA 2009 Database.
Statlink – http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932343342 10
International Advantage: America’s International Edge is Slipping in High School Graduation Rates South Dakota U.S.
Korea Poland Canada Israel Germany Denmark Ireland Norway Netherlands U.K.
Iceland 0 20 40 % Young Adults (25-34) with HS Diploma+ 60 80
Source:
OECD.
Education at a Glance 2011
. (All rates are self-reported) http://www.oecd ilibrary.org/education/education-at-a-glance-2011_eag-2011-en; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, analysis of 2008 and 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org
100 % Adults (25-64) with HS Diploma+ 11
International Advantage: America’s International Edge is Slipping in Postsecondary Degree Attainment 0 10 20 % Young Adults (25-34) with College Degree 30 40 50 % Adults (25-64) with College Degree 60
Source:
OECD.
Education at a Glance 2011
. (All rates are self-reported.) http://www.oecd ilibrary.org/education/education-at-a-glance-2011_eag-2011-en; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org
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International Advantage: America’s International Edge is Slipping in Postsecondary Degree Attainment
% of Citizens with Postsecondary Degrees Among OECD Countries, by Age Group (2006) 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 12 13 55-64
U.S. (40%) Canada (40%) N.Z. (34%) Finland (29%) Australia (28%) Norway (28%) Switz. (27%) U.K. (27%) Sweden (26%) Neth. (26%) Denmark (26%) Japan (26%) Germany (24%)
45-54
Canada (44%) Japan (43%) U.S. (40%) N.Z. (38%) Finland (37%) Australia (33%) Denmark (32%) Norway (32%) Switz. (31%) Neth. (31%) Iceland (30%) U.K. (30%) Belgium (29%)
35-44
Canada (54%) Japan (48%) Finland (44%) U.S. (43%) Korea (43%) N.Z. (40%) Norway (38%) Australia (38%) Denmark (37%) Ireland (37%) Switz. (36%) Iceland (36%) Belgium (35%)
25-34
Korea (58%) Canada (56%) Japan (55%) N.Z. (48%) Norway (46%) Ireland (45%) Denmark (43%) Belgium (42%) Australia (42%) U.S. (42%) Sweden (41%) France (41%) Neth. (40%)
ALL (25-64)
Canada (49%) Japan (43%) U.S. (41%) N.Z. (40%) Finland (37%) Korea (37%) Norway (36%) Australia (36%) Denmark (34%) Ireland (34%) Switz. (34%) U.K. (33%) Belgium (32%)
14 15
Iceland (24%) Belgium (22%) Sweden (28%) Ireland (27%) U.K. (33%) Sweden (33%) Spain (39%) Luxembourg (39%)
45-64: South Dakota (39%) SD (43%) SD (43%) Source:
OECD.
Education at a Glance 2011.
http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/education-at a-glance-2011_eag-2011-en ; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org
Neth. (32%) Sweden (32%)
SD (41%)
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Personal Benefits: Higher Earnings and Rates of Employment
While there may be jobs available to high school dropouts and graduates, they often pay less and offer less security than jobs held by those with at least some postsecondary experience. The link between educational attainment and gainful employment is clear:
More education is associated with higher earnings and higher rates of employment.
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Personal Benefits: Higher Earnings and Rates of Employment
$10,502 13% $25,892 8% $31,022 6% $52,969 3%
Mean Income Unemployment Rate
South Dakota Statistics: Total Unemployment: 6%, Mean Income: $31,655
Source:
U.S. Census Bureau (2011).
Current Population Survey
. Figures are based on the total persons in the civilian labor force. http://www.census.gov/cps/data/cpstablecreator.html
15
Personal Benefits: Increased Lifetime Earnings
Estimated Average Lifetime Earnings by Education Level
$5 000 000 $4 000 000 $3 000 000 $2 000 000 $1 000 000 $-
Source:
Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010).
Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018.
Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. www9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf Analysis based on author’s analysis of March 2008 CPS data.
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THE EQUITY IMPERATIVE
: CREATING EQUAL ACCESS AND PREPARATION FOR ALL
Far too many students, especially those from disadvantaged backgrounds, drop out or graduate from high school unprepared for real world challenges
Achievement Gaps Start Early: South Dakota’s 4 th and 8 th Grade Achievement Gaps
% At or Above Proficient on NAEP Subgroup 4 th Grade Math (2011) 4 th Grade Reading (2011) 4 th Grade Science (2009) 8 th Grade Math (2011) 8 th Grade Reading (2011) 8 th Grade Science (2011)
All Students White Black Hispanic Asian American Indian 40% 46% 21% 18% n/a 15% 31% 35% 18% 21% n/a 13% 40% 46% n/a 23% n/a 11% 42% 47% 21% 20% n/a 14% 35% 39% 17% 22% n/a 14% 42% 47% n/a 25% n/a 14%
Source:
National Assessment of Educational Progress. Analysis of data downloaded from http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/naepdata/ 18
Achievement Gaps Are About More than Race: Achievement Gaps Among Other Disadvantaged Populations
% At or Above Proficient on NAEP Subgroup
All Students Low Income English Language Learners Students with Disabilities
4 th Grade Math (2011)
40% 25%
4th Grade Reading (2011) 4 th Grade Science (2009) 8 th Grade Math (2011) 8 th Grade Reading (2011) 8 th Grade Science (2011)
31% 40% 42% 35% 42% 19% 23% 25% 22% 28% 6% 17% 2% 11% n/a 21% n/a 8% n/a 5% n/a 15%
Source:
National Assessment of Educational Progress. Analysis of data downloaded from http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/naepdata/ 19
Achievement Gaps Continue Through High School: Minority Students Are More at Risk of Dropping Out
Teens Aged 16-19 Who Are Not in School and Not High School Graduates by Race, 2010 9% 7% 6% 7% 4% 5%
U.S.
SD White
n/a
Black
n/a
Hispanic 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% All
Source:
Annie E. Casey Foundation. Kids Count Data Center. 2010, Teens ages 16 to 19 who are not in school and are not high school graduates by race (Percent). http://datacenter.kidscount.org/data/acrossstates/Rankings.aspx
20
Achievement Gaps Continue Through High School: Graduation Rates
Percent of On-Time High School Graduates, 2009
80% 78% 73% 70% 76% 59% 66% 63% 67%
U.S.
SD All White Black
44%
Hispanic
53% 27%
Asian American Indian 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
Source:
Education Week (2012).
Graduation in the United States
. http://www.edweek.org/ew/toc/2012/06/07/ 21
Achievement Gaps Continue Into Postsecondary: College Completion
Percent of Students Earning a Postsecondary Degree 56% 45%
All
59% 48% 41%
White
14% 47%
Black
26% 66%
Hispanic
31% 39% 33%
Asian American Indian 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
Source:
NCES.
IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey,
analyzed by National Center for Management of Higher Education Systems.
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THE EXPECTATIONS IMPERATIVE
: WE’RE SETTING THE BAR TOO LOW
We’ve held students to low and inconsistent expectations for too long. As a result, too few graduates are successful and achieving college and career readiness.
Too Many Students Remain Off Track to Success: Of Every 100 9 th Dakota… Graders in South 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
100 83 60 42
9th Graders Graduate High School in 4 Years Enroll in College In the Fall Still Enrolled Sophomore Year of College
Source:
National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (2008).
Student Pipeline - Transition and Completion Rates from 9th Grade to College.
http://www.higheredinfo.org
30
Earn a College Degree 24
Too Many Students Are Not College and Career Ready: Students Participating in AP and Exceeding College and Career Readiness
Percent of all 12th Graders Participating in Advanced Placement (2011) 19% 12% 30% 18%
U.S.
South Dakota 12th Graders who scored a 3+ on an AP Exam in High School 12th Graders who took an AP Exam in High School 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
Source:
College Board (2012).
AP Report to the Nation.
http://apreport.collegeboard.org/sites/default/files/downloads/pdfs/AP_Main_Report_Final.pdf
25
Too Many Students Are Not College and Career Ready: Students Meeting College Readiness Benchmark
Percentage of ACT-tested graduates who met or exceeded the College Readiness Benchmark score, 2011 46% 54% 52% 58% 31% 37% 25% 30% 67%
U.S.
SD All 4 tests Science Math
73%
Reading English 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
Note: A benchmark score indicates a 50% chance of obtaining a B or higher or about a 75% chance of obtaining a C or higher in the corresponding credit-bearing college courses.
Source:
ACT (2012).
College Readiness Benchmark Attainment by State
. http://www.act.org/newsroom/data/2012/benchmarks.html
26
Enrollment in College Does NOT Equal College Readiness in South Dakota
29% of South Dakota’s high school graduates enrolled in the state’s public four year colleges require remediation/learning support.
Source: The South Dakota Board of Regents.
South Dakota High School to College Transition Report Class.
http://www.sdbor.edu/mediapubs/highschool/documents/09SDTransitionReport2009Graduates.pdf
27
Too Many Students Are Not College and Career Ready: Retention Rates
77% 54% 65%
Persistence (2 Year)
68% 56% 45%
Persistence (4 Year) Completion (4 Year) 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
Source:
National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (2008).
Retention Rates First-Time College Freshmen Returning Their Second Year
;
Graduation Rates
. http://www.higheredinfo.org/ 28
Desire for High Expectations: The Majority of Graduates Would Have Taken Harder Courses
Knowing what you know today about the expectations of college/work … 72% 62% 48% 34% Would have taken more challenging courses in at least one area Math 41% 32% Science 38% 29%
Students Who Did Not Go To College College Students
Source:
Peter D. Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies (2005).
Rising to the Challenge: Are High School Graduates Prepared for College and Work?
Washington, DC: Achieve.
English
29
THE SUPPORT:
STAKEHOLDERS RECOGNIZE THE NEED FOR ACTION
Research and polling demonstrates that students, teachers, parents, and the general public are dissatisfied with the status quo – and want to do something about it.
The Public on College and Career Readiness
87% 89% 67% 69% To really get ahead in life, a person needs more than just a high school education.
To really get ahead in life, a person needs at least some education beyond high school, whether that means university, community college, technical or vocational school.
Strongly Agree Agree
Source:
Achieve (2010).
Achieving the Possible: What Americans Think the College and Career Ready Agenda.
http://www.achieve.org/files/AchievingThePossible-FinalReport.pdf
31
Parents on College and Career Readiness Very Important for child to get education that would lead to college School does a very good job preparing child for college School does a very good job preparing child for good job
74% Percentage of Parents Who Say… 78% 51% 66% 86% 25% 38% 13% 18%
Low-Performing Schools Moderate-Performing Schools High-Performing Schools 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Source:
Civic Enterprises (2008).
One Dream, Two Realities: Perspectives of Parents on America's High Schools.
http://www.futurereadyproject.org/sites/frp/files/onedream.pdf
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Students Overwhelmingly Want to Succeed and Attend College
The vast majority of students intend to go on to college and do not expect to drop out of high school:
93 percent of middle school students report there is “no chance” they will drop out in high school.
94 percent of high school students say that they are planning to continue their education after high school either at a two- or four-year institution.
95 percent of teenagers report that graduating from high school is “critical to their future success.” Source: Middle Schools Poll, Prepared for the National Association of Secondary School Principals and Phi Delta Kappa, 2007; Civic Enterprises,
The Silent Epidemic: Perspectives of High School Dropouts,
2006; Boys & Girls Clubs of America/Taco Bell Foundation for Teens,
Teen Graduation Crisis Survey,
2009.
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Graduates Consistently Regret Not Having Worked Harder – Or Having Been More Challenged – in High School
Percent of 2010 Graduates Who Wish They Had Worked Harder In High School, by Postsecondary Enrollment 56% 53% 47% 35%
All Graduates Four-Year College Two-Year College No College/Other
Source:
College Board (2011).
One Year Out: Findings From A National Survey Among Members Of The High School Graduating Class Of 2010.
http://www.collegeboard.org/OneYearOut 34
Employers See the Value of Education – and the Knowledge and Skills Gaps in Their Recent Hires
Overall Preparation of New Workforce Entrants More than three in four business leaders believe that increasing postsecondary completion will have an extremely or very positive impact on the U.S. economy (79%) and workforce productivity (76%). Executives also recognize increasing postsecondary experiences could affect both the success of their company (75%) and their company’s ability to hire and retain employees with the necessary skills and knowledge (75%).
32% 24% 16% 51% 55% 51%
Deficient Excellent
17% 4-year College 22% 2-Year College 34%
Adequate
High School Source:
Corporate Voices for Working Families & Civic Enterprises (2011).
Across the Great Divide: Perspectives of CEOs and College Presidents on America’s Higher Education and Skills Gap.
www.civicenterprises.net/pdfs/across-the-great-divide.pdf & The Conference Board, Corporate Voices for Working Families, ASTD, SHRM (2008).
The Ill-Prepared U.S. Workforce: Exploring the Challenges of Employer-Provided Workforce Readiness Training.
www.shrm.org/Research/SurveyFindings/Articles/Documents/BED-09Workforce_RR.pdf 35
Educators Support Major Elements of the College- and Career-Ready Agenda
Percent of Educators Who Agree That 60% 74% 67% 69% High school is not preparing students for the workforce It is important for all students to have one year or more of postsecondary education to be prepared for a career Clearer standards would make a strong or very strong impact on student achievement Common standards would have a strong or very strong impact on student achievement Sources:
MetLife (2010).
The MetLife Survey of the American Teacher.
www.metlife.com/assets/cao/contributions/foundation/american teacher/MetLife_Teacher_Survey_2010.pdf & Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Scholastic (2010). Primary Sources: America's Teachers on America's School. www.scholastic.com/primarysources/pdfs/Scholastic_Gates_noapp_0310.pdf 36
Educators Support Major Elements of the College- and Career-Ready Agenda
Percentage of Teachers Who Favor/Oppose Implementing the Common Core and Common Assessments… 72% 64% 20%
33% Strongly 10% Strongly
8% 28%
25% Strongly 15% Strongly
7%
80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Common Assessments Common Core State Standards
Don't Know/Not Sure Support Implementation Oppose Implementation
Source:
Achieve (2012)
Growing Awareness, Growing Support: Teacher and Voter Understanding of the Common Core State Standards & Assessments.
http://www.achieve.org/growingawarenessCCSS 37
THE SOLUTION:
STATE-LED EFFORTS TO CLOSE THE EXPECTATIONS GAP
All students deserve a world-class education that prepares them for college, careers and life.
The College- and Career-Ready Agenda
Align high school standards with the demands of college and careers.
Require students to take a college- and career-ready curriculum to earn a high school diploma.
Build college- and career-ready measures into statewide high school assessment systems.
Develop reporting and accountability systems that promote college and career readiness.
39
South Dakota’s Commitment to Closing the Expectations Gap to Date
South Dakota adopted the Common Core State Standards in November 2010.
In 2005, South Dakota adopted the Advanced Diploma – a college- and career-ready curriculum – as the default graduation requirements for all students. South Dakota is a governing state in the Smarter Balanced Assessment Consortium (SBAC), a group of states working to develop a common assessment system using Race to the Top Common Assessment funds. South Dakota is a Lead State Partner in the development of the Next Generation Science Standards.
40
How South Dakota Can Continue to Build on its Momentum…
…Realize the promise of the Common Core State Standards by implementing them fully and successfully, taking into consideration the related curricular and policy changes.
…Closely monitor which students are completing the college- and career-ready curriculum, and which are opting out.
…Remain committed to the goals of SBAC and developing and administering a next-generation, computer-based assessment system anchored by college- and career-ready tests in high school that will let students know if they are ready for college-level coursework and measure the full range of the CCSS.
…Continue to make progress on the state’s data collection efforts, particularly around linking K-12 and postsecondary student-level data.
…Re-examine the state’s K-12 accountability system to determine how it can reward measures of college and career readiness, in alignment with the state’s standards and course requirements.