Transcript WATER AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: JOINING EFFORTS TO ADAPT Session 3: Reducing uncertainty: forecasting, modelling and vulnerability Integrating environmental flows into water.

WATER AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: JOINING
EFFORTS TO ADAPT
Session 3: Reducing uncertainty: forecasting, modelling and vulnerability
Integrating environmental flows into water management to
reduce social vulnerability - Learning from NeWater research in
the lower Amudarya River Basin
G.Khasankhanova, UZGIP Institute, Uzbekistan
UZGIP NIGMI IBE
Uni Osnabrück
SEI York
University
HELMHOLTZ –
Center for
Environmental
Research-UFZ
The Amudarya River Basin
Muinak
Nukus
Tuyamuyun
reservoir
Case Study Area
100000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
Pyandj+VAkhsh
Kerki
Tuyamuyu
Chatly
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98
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38
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0
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32
mln m3
90000
80000
The reduction and
high variability of
water inflows to the
delta has critically
impacted ecosystem
services and human
wellbeing
Impact of severe drought events - vulnerability of
people and ecosystems
Extreme events such as drought in 2000 and 2001:
• reduction of water deliveries to the delta region by more than 50%
• massive crop loss
• drinking water shortage
• degradation of the wetland ecosystems with 80% of lake
ecosystems dried out
Creeping ecosystem degradation
• massive increase in soil and groundwater salinization
• decrease of income from fish catch by more than 6 times in the last 18 years
•reduction of annual dry volume of reed biomass from 1,4 tons/ha (1970) to 0,4 tons/ha,
loss of muskrat breeding. The annual damage is estimated at 60,000 $US.
• the total loss of the ecosystem services is estimated at 5.2 Mln. $US.
The Amudarya Case Study
Major issues that need to be addressed to reduce vulnerability:
• Identify measures to adapt to high variability in water flows
• Balance water use between different sectors
EU project NeWater addresses the following themes, among others:
•
•
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Assessment of vulnerability of deltaic ecosystems to flow variability
Identification of environmental flow regimes
Identification of measures for the improvement of local livelihoods and poverty alleviation.
A participatory research method was followed to promote understanding
and learning on these issues.
The Amudarya Case Study
Assessment of vulnerability of deltaic ecosystems
In mean water year
In low water year
The Amudarya Case Study
Solutions I
1. Infrastructural measures (under implementation)
•
Increase area of artificial lakes by 30 %, reserve 5.2 km3 of runoff for
environmental flows (compared to 15 km3 needed for agriculture and an
inflow of 17-59km3/year)
•
Stabilize water levels in lakes, enhance water exchange
2. Institutional measures (planned and partially under implementation)
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Include lake water needs in water allocation planning
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Develop incentives for rational water use
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Manage tradeoff between different water uses, including legal basis for
water sharing among sectors
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Institutional development for collective use of wetland services
The Amudarya Case Study
Solutions II
3. Capacity building/Awareness Raising
•
Awareness raising among local communities and decision makers
•
change in perception on social and economic benefits of environmental
flows
4. Public participation in water management (little implemented)
•
Development of community plans and their integration into national
level planning
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Use of local knowledge for monitoring and development of measures
5. Community measures
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Non-grain food production in private plots for household food security and
cash income
•
Active partnership between development and ecology experts for
integrating activities for environmental regeneration and income
promotion
The Amudarya Case Study
Conclusions
 technical measures of redistribution and efficiency increase need to be
accompanied by institutional changes
 move towards multi-purpose water use that recognizes the needs and
benefits of other water users besides agriculture
 Need for awareness raising and change in perception on social and
economic benefits of environmental flows
 use of local knowledge of farmers, fishers and local communities for
monitoring and development of measures
THANK YOU FOR YOUR
ATTENTION