Energy Challenge: Overview & Technology Issues

National Space Grant

Directors Meeting

27 October 2008 Sam V. Shelton, Ph.D.

Strategic Energy Institute Georgia Institute of Technology

1960’s U.S. Space Initiative  Created Generation of Engineers & Scientiest  I am a Product of Sputnik: – Graduate School on National Defense Education Act  First Career Position – Jet Propulsion Laboratory: Research Engineer

Energy & The Economy

Oil Price Increase  01 Jan 2002 to 27 Oct 2008 •

22 Percent per Year Average

Coal Price Increase  01 Jan 2002 to 27 Oct 2008 •

20 Percent per Year Average

Natural Gas Price Increase  01 Jan 2002 to 27 Oct 2008 •

15 Percent per Year Average

Energy Burden on Economy  US Energy Expenditures as % of GDP – 2004: 3% – 2008: 7%  Energy Costs Created Current Economic Crisis?

 “The Oil Factor”, 2004, Stephen Leeb

Energy Challenge

Energy Drivers Working Together  Economics  Environment  Fossil Fuel Production Limitations  National Security

Environment and Energy

U.S. Natural Energy Resources Use

U.S. Oil Demand & Production

US Oil Production & Utilization EIA Annual Energy Report (1949-2006)

Production

Production

Imports

Consumption

U.S. Oil Production with ANWR

US Oil Production

12 Actual Projected 10 8 ANWR Alaska Lower 48 6 4 2 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980

Year

2000 2020 2040

World Oil Production

World Oil Production Peaking Predicted: 2006 - 2015

30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1930 1950 1970

Conventional

1990

Heavy

2010

Polar

2030

Deep Water

2050

World Oil Peaking is Driving Oil Prices UP 2006 Predictions: $100 per Barrel Oil Predicted by end of 2010

U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil National Security & Economic Issues

Supplier of Last Resort

Have Oil

CIA Factbook 2007

Saudi Arabia 20% Canada 14% Iran Iraq 10% 9% Kuwait UAE Venezuela 8% 7% 6% Russia Libya Nigeria Kazakhstan U.S.

5% 3% 3% 2% 2% Use Oil

EIA 2007

U.S.

China Japan Germany Russia India Canada South Korea Brazil France Mexico Italy 25% 8% 7% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% The U.S. uses more than the next 5 highest consuming nations combined.

Foreign Energy Tax  National Balance of Payments –

$1 Billion per DAY Going Out of US for Oil

 U.S. Energy Policy Could be Stated As: “Leave No Saudi Prince or Iranian Mula Behind.”

Oil Demand Primarily Transportation

Transportation is the Oil Issue 

Very Large Transportation Fleet



Huge Investment in Fleet



Evolves Very Slowly

– 17 Years to Replace 50% of Vehicles

  Vehicle Efficiency Improvements Change Vehicle Culture – Smaller Cars – Hybrid Vehicles – Turbo Diesels Engines – Plug In Hybrids – All Electric Cars

ALL HAVE IMPACT IN ~2025

–

IF WE START SELLING THEM NOW

Is Aviation Fuel Inefficient?

Rutan Long EZ

Space Ship I

Space Ship I Landing

Natural Gas Supplies N. American Gas Demand Exceeding N. American Gas Production

U.S. Natural Gas Production 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970

Year

1980 1990 2000

Importing Natural Gas      LNG Imports – Liquified – -260F Same as Oil Imports Paid with Foreign Held Debt National Security Costly to Transport

Electric Power Plants

Electricity Uses Very Little Oil Fuel Type Use for Electric Power

Oil & Electric Power



New Nuclear/Wind/Solar Electric Power Will Save No Significant Oil



Oil Use is 2% of Current Electric Fuel



Electric Cars can be Charged from Current Non-Oil Night Base Load Plants

    Conventional Power Plant Issues Coal Fired Power Plants – Coal Mining Environmental Impact – Air Quality Nuclear Power Plants – Economics: High Construction Cost – High Level Radioactive Waste Hydro – Environmental Impact - Permitting Issues Natural Gas Power Plants – Environmentally Relatively Clean – High Cost of Natural Gas-Economics – National Security: Importing LNG

Comparison of Levelized Costs

¢/kWh

2 1 0 4 3 6 5 10 9 8 7

Levelized Costs of Electricity (Traditional Plant M odel)

10 10 6 nuclear (reference case) coal CCGT

Meeting New Electric Power Demand

New Power Plant Technologies   New Generation Nuclear Plants – Permits being Prepared for 2017 Start Up – Capital Cost is Uncertain – Waste Fuel Disposal is Issue: Yucca Mountain???

Coal Gasification with Combined Cycle – Higher Efficiency use of Coal (40% vs 35%) – Coal Strip Mining Environmental Impact – A Winning Coal Technology with CO2 Limits

(cont) New Power Plant Technologies   Wind Energy – Cost can be Competitive with Conventional: • 6 to 8 cents/kWhr – Permitting is Issue Solar Photovoltaics (PV) – High Cost: • Silicon Technology:30 to 50 cents/kWhr – Better Economics predicted since 1970’s – Good for Off Grid

Economics of Renewable Electrical Power Technologies

“Change” PV Technology  Thin Film PV Technology – First Solar • www.spectrum.ieee.org

– Nanosolar • www.nanosolar.com

– Reduced PV Power into Grid from $0.40/kW to $0.25/kW?

Relative 2006 Electric Power Generation Costs Estimates

15 10 5 0 40 35 30 25 20 Coal Nuke Gas CCGT Wind Solar

(cont) Conclusions     Oil is Near Term Problem: – Supply vs. Demand Electric Power Technology will Not Impact Oil Economics is Prime Technology Driving Force PV has Potential for Change Technology

Potential Solutions

Technology is Core  Solutions are Diverse  Thousands of Technology Improvements  Public Policy to Avoid Disruptions – Economic, Social, International

Long Term Electric Power Space Power Recent Thin Film PV Technolgy

Moves the Ball Forward

Georgia Tech Strategic Energy Institute Interdisciplinary Energy Innovation Sciences Engineering

SEI

Policy

Strategic Energy Planning

 Identify High Impact Technologies  Identify Economical Technologies  Engage Industry Partnerships  Develop Near Term High Impact Technology  Build Demonstration Projects with Industry

SEI Major Projects    Southern Pine Cellulosic Ethanol – C2BioFuels Off Shore Wind Energy – Southern Company Broad Based Alternative Fuels – Chevron: $12 million Agreement

Ethanol from Pulp Wood

Only One Near Term High Impact Option for Oil  Develop Ethanol from Cellulosic Biomass

Ethanol as a Transportation Fuel  Uses existing gasoline distribution infrastructure  All Vehicles can Burn 10% Ethanol  Flexible Fuel Vehicles (FFV) – Can Use 85% Ethanol (E85) – 6 million FFV’s currently on the road – 1 million FFV’s produced annually

Conventional Energy Inputs for Ethanol Production 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% Corn Petroleum Other Natural Gas Coal Wood

Georgia Tech Strategic Energy Institute Off-Shore Wind Energy

Courtesy of: Georgia Institute of Technology, Center for Geographic Information Systems

Denmark Horns Rev: 80 Turbines, 160 MWatts

Optimistic: Convergence of Drivers

      Fossil Fuel Production Limitations Economics Environment National Security Solutions Technology Need National Public Policy

Thank You Questions?

Conclusions        World Conventional Oil Production will Peak Energy Prices will Increase to Destroy Demand There is No Silver Bullet Solution Develop Near Term Transition Energy Technologies Economics is Primary Driver for Energy Technologies Economic Development Opportunities for Georgia – Ethanol from Southern Pine Pulpwood Long Term Energy Technology Development