Transcript MDG Summit Keeping the Promise Will we? And if we do, will it be good enough? Rob Vos United Nations Policy Coherence for Development Paris, 1 October.

MDG Summit
Keeping the Promise
Will we? And if we do,
will it be good enough?
Rob Vos
United Nations
Policy Coherence for Development
Paris, 1 October 2010
Main outcomes MDG Summit


Reaffirmation of all MDG commitments
and need coherence with other agendas
(e.g. sustainable development, FFD)
Support scaling up of successful policies:
• Importance of national development strategies
and ownership
• Strengthened global partnerships

Follow up and improved accountability
through ECOSOC and DCF and
strengthening of monitoring systems
National policy coherence for the
MDGs

Summit recommendation:
• Encourage all countries to design,
implement and monitor national
development strategies.
• Pursue MDGs in holistic and
comprehensive way
• UN to support in design national
development strategies at country
request
MDGs and national policy coherence

World Economic and Social Survey 2010: no one
size fits all, but successful experiences suggest
seeking coherence in terms of:
• Broad approach to macroeconomic policies, main focus
on full employment
• Agricultural development is key
• Adequate priority to infrastructure investment
• Align macroeconomic policy incentives with industrial
policies
• Demands of sustainable development overarching in
setting priorities for agriculture and industrial policies,
infrastructure and energy development
• Social policy itself needs to be coherent (universal social
floor as basis)

No successful national strategy without enabling
global environment (aid, trade, debt relief,
technology transfer)
ODA: Summit Recommendations




Recommit to the United Nations
“0.7%” aid target, implies roughly
doubling of aid flows (via annual
increments of $35 billion) by 2015
Deliver to priority country groups
Deliver on aid effectiveness
Expand development cooperation
among developing countries
MDG Summit recognized
Gleneagles targets will not be met
Expected aid shortfall in 2010 (in 2009 dollars):
•$20 billion for total ODA
•$16 billion for ODA to Africa
Delivery against the Gleneagles target (2004 dollars)
130
126
120
Shortfall
110
108
105
103
103
100
100
92
ODA delivered
90
80
ODA required increase
80
ODA projected increase
70
Excluding debt relief to Iraq and Nigeria in 2005-2006
60
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Yet, at Summit UN Members
committed to deliver 0.5% of donor
GNI in ODA by 2010
ODA as percentage of GNI, 2009
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
1.12
1.06
1.01
0.88
0.82
UN Target of 0.7% of donor GNI by 2015
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.55 0.54 0.54
0.52 0.47 0.46 0.46
HLPM Commitment of 0.5% of GNI by 2010
0.35
0.31
0.30 0.30 0.29 0.29
0.23
0.20 0.19 0.18
0.16
0.10
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HLPM reconfirms target of Aid to LDCs
Delivery of ODA to LDCs against the Brussels target
Luxembourg
Norw ay
Denmark
Sw eden
Ireland
Netherlands
Belgium
United
Finland
Canada
Sw itzerland
France
Germany
Portugal
Spain
New Zealand
Australia
Italy
Austria
United States
Japan
Greece
Korea, Rep. of
DAC total
0.00
2000
0.05
0.05
2008
0.09
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Making aid more effective
Some progress in:
● Alignment of technical assistance with country
programmes
● Untying of aid
● Strengthening of public financial management
systems
Less progress in:
● Donor use of recipient country systems
● Predictability of aid flows
● Reducing transaction costs of providing aid
MDG Summit Outcome:
 Strong commitment to more budget support and
less policy conditionality
 Role of DCF in strengthening mutual accountability
Aid effectiveness and MDG summit

Some unresolved issues of incoherence:
• More earmarking of aid and more vertical
funding versus need for more budget support
• Additionality of aid for food security and
climate (if not additional, the issue will be
adequacy)
• Role of innovative sources of financing in
reforming the aid architecture
• Alignment with other sources of financing
• Role of aid in global rebalancing (“net transfer
problem”)
TRADE: key MDG Summit
recommendations




Intensify efforts to conclude a
development-oriented Doha Round
Accelerate full implementation of
DFQF market access
Eliminate agricultural (export)
subsidies (and all measures with
equivalent effect) by end 2013
Strengthen Aid for Trade
Large gap remains in providing
duty free access
Proportion of developed-country imports from developing countries
and LDCs admitted free of duty (percentage)
100
DFQF Target
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
2000
2001
2002
2003
Developing countries, excl. arms and oil
Developing countries, excl. arms
2004
2005
2006
2007
LDCs, excl. arms and oil
LDCs, excl. arms
2008
Agricultural subsidies in
developed countries remain high
Total agricultural support in OECD
countries
1990 2000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Billions of US
dollars
Billions of euros
As a percentage of
OECD countries’
GDP
327
323
383
375
363
364
376
257
351
308
302
289
266
257
2.0
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.8
Aid for trade increased 35 percent,
reaching a record level of $42 billion
Aid for Trade Commitments (2008 dollars)
45
40
Trade-related adjustment
40
35
37
Trade policy and regulations
34
Building productive capacity
30
25
20
31
Economic infrastructure
15
10
28
5
0
25
2002-2005
2006
2007
2008
Percentage of total sectorallocable aid
Some key coherence issues in
TRADE





“Aid for trade” versus NDS’s and
budget support
Address inequities in “Aid for Trade”
Ensure DFQF market access is a
“win” situation for beneficiary
countries
Ensure Doha Round aligning of
preference schemes is a “win” for all
LDCs
Broader issues: see WESS 2010
DEBT SUSTAINABILITY: key MDG
Summit recommendations




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Offer option of moratoria to countries
affected by emergency situations
Provide ODA in grant form to low-income
countries
Set up schemes of independent arbitration or
mediation, or organizing ad hoc meetings of
a debtor with its creditors
Extend and re-open eligibility to participate
in the HIPC Initiative
Convene a multi-stakeholder expert group on
sovereign debt workout mechanism
Countries in debt distress or at high
risk of distress
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
HIPCs
Other low income
Lower-middle
income
Upper-middle
income
Some key coherence issues in
DEBT



Financing of MDG strategies and debt
sustainability
Additionality of debt relief to ODA
commitments
Sovereign debt workout mechanism
with financial safety nets,
compensatory financing, and new
financial regulation
Can the promise be kept?



No major new commitments
Commitments for global partnerships
no tall order economically speaking;
political will needs to be shown in
actions
Taller order is moving towards
sustainable rebalancing of global
economy