Transcript AGEC/FNR 406 LECTURE 27 Challicum Hills, the largest wind farm in Australia.

AGEC/FNR 406
LECTURE 27
Challicum Hills, the largest wind farm in Australia
Energy Alternatives
Why search for alternatives to oil?
1. Finite supply of fossil fuels
(see lecture 26, Hubbert’s Peak)
2. Geopolitical risks associated with oil
supplies
3. Global warming
Our Energy Habits
“…on its current course, the future global
energy situation will remain vulnerable,
dirty and expensive.”
International Energy Agency (IEA)
World Energy Outlook (2006)
The simple story:
Renewables (e.g. solar):
Currently not capable of supplying world energy
needs, even if they were cost-competitive (which
they are not)
Nuclear Energy:
Even if storage issues were resolved, there is not
enough fissionable fuel available to supply
electricity needs
Result:
Fossil fuels will still provide most energy for the
foreseeable future
What does the future hold?
Global primary energy demand
(energy before export and refinement)
- expected to increase by 50%+ by 2030
- 70% of new demand from developing
countries
- 30% of new demand from China
Why not alternatives?
Fossil fuel energy is very compact:
for 1 square meter of…
biomass: 1watt of energy
wind power: 10 watts
fossil fuel: 100-1000 watts
Most countries have reserves (especially of
coal) which ensure energy “security”
The bad news…
Coal…
resurgence of popularity because it is cheap
and plentiful
As a result…
CO2 emissions will likely grow faster than
energy demand
Kyoto targets unlikely to be met
What to do?
Wind farms
Nuclear power
Geothermal
Solar
Conservation
Wind farms
Pros
- renewable
- supported by Renewable Portfolio
Standards (enacted in 22 states)
- high potential in many areas
Cons
- siting difficulties (NIMBY, BANANA)
- must move electricity from source
Nuclear
Pros
- ample supply of Uranium (270 years
worth of current consumption) in “stable”
countries (Canada, Australia)
- carbon-free (except for construction)
- low and stable MC
Cons
- safety
- waste management and disposal
Geothermal
Pros
clean and relatively cheap
Cons
location-specific
Solar
Pros
renewable
flexible
scalable
Cons
toxic production
not suitable in all locations
Conservation
Pros
Cheap
Easy
Cons
Requires some effort, hardship, and changes
in behavior
Cost comparisons – these are difficult to estimate
due to variations in capital costs and assumptions
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
c/kwh
solar
geoth
biomass
gas
oil
coal
wind
nuclear
The importance of “now”
Many power plants built in the US and Europe
came on line after WWII, in conjunction
with rapid economic development in the
industrialized countries
Much energy infrastructure needs to be
replaced now.
Decisions made now will have lasting
consequences.
Twin sons of different
mothers?
Source: Chowdhury (2006)
Winds of change?
Source: Chowdhury (2006)
Source material for this lecture includes:
Chowdhury, B. H. “Alternative Energy - Hype or Real?”
IEEE-USA Today’s Engineer Online. December 2006.
Vajjhala, S. P. “Siting Difficulty and Renewable Energy
Development: A Case of Gridlock” Resources 163:5-7,
Winter 2007.
“Energy: Finding a New Gear” OECD Observer,
December 2006.
“The Economics of Nuclear Power” Briefing paper No. 8
(2007) Uranium Information Centre Ltd, Melbourne
Australia