Transcript Proposal for a WWRP High Impact Weather Project Sarah Jones, Brian Golding Philippe Arbogast, Ana Barros, Aida Diongue, Beth Ebert, Grant Elliott, Pat Harr, Tim.

Proposal for a
WWRP
High Impact Weather Project
Sarah Jones, Brian Golding
Philippe Arbogast, Ana Barros, Aida Diongue, Beth Ebert,
Grant Elliott, Pat Harr, Tim Hewson, Julia Keller, Stefan Klink,
Sharan Majumdar, Rebecca Morss, Pierre Pellerin,
David Richardson, Peter Steinle, Jenny Sun, Richard Swinbank,
Zoltan Toth, Jian Jie Wang, Heini Wernli, Hui Yu
THORPEX ICSC 11
15 - 17 July 2013
Development of Proposal for a 5-10 year WWRP
High Impact Weather Project
• Potential need for THORPEX Legacy project on High Impact
Weather identified at ICSC10
• North American Town Hall at AMS Annual Meeting (Jan
2013)
• International workshop to define scope & objectives (March
2013)
• Appointment of task team (May 2013)
• Task Team Telecons to agree on structure and objectives
(Mid-June 2013)
• Draft of proposal to WMO for ICSC/JSC (July 2013)
• Discussion at ICSC / JSC; Agreement on way forward
• Revise proposal for submission to CAS in November
Mission of Project
The overall objective of the High Impact Weather
project is to:
“Promote cooperative international research to
achieve a dramatic increase in resilience to high
impact weather, worldwide, through improving
forecasts for timescales of minutes to two weeks
and enhancing their communication and utility in
social, economic and environmental applications”
Builds on THORPEX – what is new?
• Focus and scope of project defined by needs of a
limited number of specific weather-related
applications
• Probabilistic predictions at scales relevant to
hazards: focus on small time and space scales whilst
maintaining relevance of larger / longer scales
•Exploit opportunities from coupled high resolution
models and develop new observing strategies
Scope and limits of project defined by a limited set of
weather – related applications
Scope of Project
Scope of Project
Scope of Project
Research Theme: Predictability and Processes
Improve understanding of factors determining
predictability during High Impact Weather events
Analysis of processes
Observations
Predictability &
Processes
Diagnosis of
model errors
Research Theme: Multi-scale Prediction
Enhance multi-scale prediction of variables needed
to forecast weather impacts
Coupled Systems
Minutes to weeks
Local to Global
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
Research Theme: Vulnerability and Risk
Produce more relevant forecasts and warnings
Assess impact of hazard on
individuals, communities
and businesses
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
Vulnerability &
Risk
Learn about their
vulnerability
Quantify risk
arising from
hazard
Research Theme: Evaluation
Identify deficits in / grow trust in forecasts and warnings
Rigorous evaluation of
forecasts & warnings
of hazards and their
impacts
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
Vulnerability &
Risk
Evaluation
Define how to
measure
benefits
of research
Research Theme: Communication
Achieve more effective responses
Improve formulation and
communication
of forecasts &
warnings
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
Vulnerability &
Risk
Evaluation
Commu
nication
Cross-cutting activities
Joint activities of research topics to realise
benefits of the research
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
Vulnerability &
Risk
Evaluation
Commu
nication
Cross-cutting activities
Applications in the forecasting process
Seamless from nowcasting to
short-range NWP
Automation
Interpretation
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
Vulnerability &
Risk
Evaluation
Applications in the forecasting process
Commu
nication
Assessment of
impacts
Communication
Cross-cutting activities
Design of observing strategies
Opportunities from sophisticated
high resolution observations
Assessment of local vs. global
Impacts and responses
Quality control
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
Vulnerability &
Risk
Evaluation
Applications in the forecasting process
Design of observing strategies
Commu
nication
Cross-cutting activities
Uncertainty
Understanding
Predicting
Evaluating
Communicating
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
Vulnerability &
Risk
Evaluation
Applications in the forecasting process
Design of observing strategies
Uncertainty
Commu
nication
Cross-cutting activities
Field campaigns and demonstration projects
Utilise data from previous campaigns
Exploit planned activities:
Lake Victoria RDP / FDP
T-NAWDEX
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
Vulnerability &
Risk
Evaluation
Applications in the forecasting process
Design of observing strategies
Uncertainty
Field campaigns & demonstrations
Commu
nication
Link to TIGGE-LAM
Involve End Users
Cross-cutting activities
Knowledge Transfer
Between scientific disciplines
Between research and operations
Internationally
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
Vulnerability &
Risk
Evaluation
Applications in the forecasting process
Design of observing strategies
Uncertainty
Field campaigns & demonstrations
Knowledge Transfer
Commu
nication
Cross-cutting activities
Verification
Linking process understanding, model
development, evaluation
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
Vulnerability &
Risk
Evaluation
Applications in the forecasting process
Design of observing strategies
Uncertainty
Field campaigns & demonstrations
Knowledge Transfer
Verification
Commu
nication
Cross-cutting activities
Impact forecasting
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
Focussing research activities on
advances needed to forecast the
impacts
Vulnerability &
Risk
Evaluation
Applications in the forecasting process
Design of observing strategies
Uncertainty
Field campaigns & demonstrations
Knowledge Transfer
Verification
Impact Forecasting
Commu
nication
Transfer of Results
Transfer results and benefits of research back to
receptors in an adequate manner
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
Vulnerability &
Risk
Evaluation
Applications in the forecasting process
Design of observing strategies
Uncertainty
Field campaigns & demonstrations
Knowledge Transfer
Verification
Impact Forecasting
Commu
nication
External Engagement
• To-date: knowledge of user requirements
present in task team
• During further development of implementation
plan: Engage with national / international bodies
that already engage with users
• During project: meet with end users at variety of
levels to define user needs and transfer results
Strategies to achieve goals
• Engage researchers from operational and academic
centres; encourage development of research proposals
•Develop linkages with other initiatives
–International bodies and activities, WWRP Working groups,
national initiatives, Post-Hyogo activities on disaster risk
reduction
• Engage communication of scientists with different
backgrounds through workshops, conferences etc.
• Establish and exploit special research datasets
• Support research and demonstration projects
• Link to S2S and PPP
Recommendations of ICSC-11
Further develop proposal for CAS considering the following:
• better define the scope and focus based on a number of
prototype applications that engage developing countries
• better describe the added value of the project compared to
what will be done anyway at NMHSs
• further emphasize the project focus on the first few days
whilst maintaining the relevance of longer time scales.
• recognise increasing global urbanisation, the associated
vulnerabilities and importance of “urban” weather
• further develop the rationale/motivation for the project
• link to WCRP through HIW in a changing climate
• Link to important planned projects e.g. nocturnal convection
in N. America and associated flash flooding clarify the
relationships with other related WMO groups.
WWRP
High Impact Weather Project
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
Vulnerability &
Risk
Evaluation
Applications in the forecasting process
Design of observing strategies
Uncertainty
Field campaigns & demonstrations
Knowledge Transfer
Verification
Impact Forecasting
Commu
nication
Mission of Project
The overall objective of the High Impact Weather
project is to:
“Promote cooperative international research to
achieve a dramatic increase in resilience to high
impact weather, worldwide, through improving
forecasts for timescales of minutes to two weeks
and enhancing their communication and utility in
social, economic and environmental applications”
Task Team Members
Chair: Sarah Jones (DWD, Germany)
WMO Consultant: Brian Golding (UKMO, UK)
Philippe Arbogast (MeteoFrance, Predictability)
Ana Barros (USA, Hydrology)
Aida Diongue (Senegal, African Regional Committee)
Beth Ebert (BoM, Australia, Verification WG)
Grant Elliott (Australia, BoM, Forecaster / User Perspective)
Pat Harr (Naval Postgraduate School, USA, PDP WG)
Tim Hewson (UKMO, UK, Forecasting process)
Julia Keller (DWD, Germany, Ensembles / TIGGE)
Stefan Klink (DWD, Germany, EUMETNET Obs Programme, Observations)
Sharan Majumdar (RSMAS, University of Miami, USA, Data Assimilation)
Rebecca Morss (NCAR, USA, SERA)
Pierre Pellerin (Environment Canada, coupled modelling)
David Richardson (ECMWF, GIFS-TIGGE)
Peter Steinle (Australia BOM, WWRP / Mesoscale WG)
Jenny Sun (NCAR, WWRP/ Nowcasting WG)
Richard Swinbank (UKMO, GIFS-TIGGE)
Zoltan Toth (NOAA, USA, Data Assimilation / Multi-scale modelling)
Jian Jie Wang (China, WWRP/ Nowcasting Research WG)
Heini Wernli (ETH Zürich, Switzerland, PDP WG)
Hui Yu (CMA/Shanghai Typhoon Center; WWRP/ Mesoscale WG)
Link to CBS/SWFDP: Ken Mylne (UKMO)
Links to PPP and S2S: Co-chairs of Projects
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
Vulnerability &
Risk
Evaluation
Applications in the forecasting process
Design of observing strategies
Uncertainty
Field campaigns & demonstrations
Knowledge Transfer
Verification
Impact Forecasting
Commu
nication