Transcript UNECE Seminar “The way forward in poverty measurement” The measurement of poverty and social inclusion in the EU: Achievements and further improvements Eurostat Unit F/4

UNECE Seminar “The way forward in poverty measurement”
The measurement of poverty and
social inclusion in the EU:
Achievements and further
improvements
Eurostat Unit F/4 Quality of Life
Eurostat
Definition of poverty and social
exclusion - European Council 1975:
“People are said to be living in poverty if their income and
resources are so inadequate as to preclude them from having
a standard of living considered acceptable in the society in
which they live. Because of their poverty they may experience
multiple disadvantages through unemployment, low income,
poor housing, inadequate health care and barriers to lifelong
learning, culture, sport and recreation. They are often
excluded and marginalised from participating in activities
(economic, social and cultural) that are the norm for other
people and their access to fundamental rights may be
restricted.”
Eurostat
EU-SILC – Statistics on Income and Living
Conditions (survey)
Topics (variables):
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Sampling design, household composition
Basic characteristics of household members
Income, education, labour, health
Housing conditions and material deprivation
Annual ad-hoc modules
Sampling:
 Reference population: All private households and their members
 Minimum precision criteria for a key indicator (precision of at-risk-ofpoverty rate of 1%) translated in terms of minimum sample size +
additional requirement for longitudinal component
Eurostat
EU-SILC – Cross-sectional and longitudinal
components – 4 year rotational panel
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Eurostat
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2011
EU-2020 target on poverty & social inclusion
By 2020 at least 20 million people should be lifted out of
the risk of poverty and exclusion in the EU (/ 2008)
"At-risk-of-poverty and social exclusion rate” (AROPE)
made of 3 components:
 Relative component: At-risk-of-poverty rate
 “Absolute” component: Severe material deprivation rate
(the household cannot afford at least 4 items out of 9)
 Exclusion (of the labour market) component: People living
in “jobless” households (work intensity ≤ 20%)
Eurostat
At-risk-of-poverty rate (AROP):
 I: Total household (HH) disposable income (Canberra manual)
 S: “Modified OECD” equivalence scale (1 first adult/HH, 0.5 for other
adults, 0.3 for children < 14)
 I/S = HH equivalised disposable income
 T: Threshold = 60% of the median equivalised disposable income OF
THE COUNTRY  Relative measure of poverty
 AROP is the share of people living in HH for which (I/S) < T
Eurostat
Severe material deprivation (MD) rate:
Share of people living in HH that cannot afford at least 4 items out of
the 9 following:
 pay rent or utility bills
 keep home adequately warm
 face unexpected expenses
 eat meat, fish or a protein equivalent every 2nd day
 a week holiday away from home
 a car
 a washing machine
 a colour TV
 a telephone
Eurostat
People living in a very low work intensity (LWI)
household rate
Share of people aged 0-59 living a household:
where adults 18-59
worked less than 20%
of their total work potential
during the past year
E.g.:
HH with 3 adults, 1 work FT and the 2 others doesn’t work (1
bread earner, inactive spouse, 1 student):
WI = (1+0+0)/3 = 1/3 > 20%  not included
Same HH, 1st adult work only PT (half-time):
WI = (0.5+0+0)/3 = 1/6 < 20%  included
Eurostat
AROPE: share of people living in HH in at least 1
situation: AROP, severe MD and very LWI - 2011
- Total around
120 million
people on about
500 Europeans
(close to 25%)
- Overlaps
around:
. 2 groups: 50
million (10%)
. 3 groups: 8
million (1.6%)
Eurostat
AROPE 2008-2012
50
40
30
20
10
(1) Eurostat estimates for 2012
(3) Provisional data for 2012
(2) Break in time series
(4) 2012: 2011 data
2008
Eurostat
2012
CH
NO
IS
NL
CZ
AT (4)
FI
SE (3)
LU
DK
FR
SI
DE
SK
BE (3)
MT
EE
UK (2)
PT
PL
CY
ES
IE (4)
IT (3)
HR
HU
LT
EL
LV (2)
RO
BG
EU-28 (1)
0
AROP 2008-2012
30
20
10
(1) Eurostat estimates for 2012
(3) Provisional data for 2012
2008
(2) Break in time series
(4) 2012: 2011 data
Eurostat
2012
CH
NO
IS
CZ
NL
AT (4)
DK
FI
SK
SI
HU
FR
SE (3)
CY
BE (3)
MT
LU
IE (4)
DE
UK (2)
PL
EE
PT
LT
LV (2)
IT (3)
HR
BG
ES
RO
EL
EU28 (1)
0
Severe MD 2008-2012
44,1
30
20
10
(1) Eurostat estimates for 2012
(3) Provisional data for 2012
2008
(2) Break in time series
(4) 2012: 2011 data
Eurostat
2012
CH
NO
IS
SE (3)
LU
NL
DK
FI
AT (4)
DE
FR
ES
BE (3)
SI
CZ
UK (2)
IE (4)
MT
PT
EE
SK
PL
IT (3)
CY
HR
EL
LT
HU
LV (2)
RO
BG
EU28 (1)
0
Very LWI 2008-2012
20
10
(1) Eurostat estimates for 2012
(3) Provisional data for 2012
2008
(2) Break in time series
(4) 2012: 2011 data
Eurostat
2012
CH
NO
IS
LU
CY
PL
CZ
SK
RO
SI
AT (4)
MT
FR
NL
EE
FI
DE
SE (3)
PT
IT (3)
DK
LT
LV (2)
BG
HU
UK (2)
BE (3)
EL
ES
HR
IE (4)
EU28 (1)
0
Difficulties with the AROP indicator
 In time of economic crisis, if the whole income distribution is affected
and in particular the median income tends to decrease as, e.g., work
incomes decrease, the share of persons belonging to a HH with an
equivalised disposable income below the poverty threshold (60% of
median) can remain stable or even decrease
 In addition the different sources of income are not all hit at the same
time by the crisis, e.g. pensioners or other HH with social benefits
incomes, protected at least in a first time, can move from below to
above the (decreased) threshold
 Solution, for the poverty threshold:
 Instead of using 60% of the current median income
 Use 60% of the median income of a base year (2008, to be
updated after some time) adjusted for inflation (HICP)
Eurostat
Evolution of the income distribution - DE
Eurostat
Evolution of the income distribution - ES
Eurostat
Evolution of the income distribution - EL
Eurostat
AROP anchored in time (2008) – 2008-2012
40
30
20
10
2008
(1) Eurostat estimates for 2012 (2) Break in time series
(3) Provisional data for 2012
(4) 2012: 2011 data
Eurostat
2012
CH (4)
NO
IS
SK
CZ
AT (4)
NL
SE (3)
FI
PL
DK
SI
BE (4)
FR
MT
HU
DE
LU
CY
BG
PT
RO
IE (4)
UK (4)
IT (3)
EE
LT
ES
LV (2)
EL
0
Other EU-SILC indicators and analyses
 Numerous indicators on poverty and inequalities, including elderly and
children
 Other indicators on health, housing, etc.
 Main indicator from the longitudinal component (measured over the 4
consecutive years) = Persistent at-risk-of-poverty: percentage of
people under the poverty threshold for the current year and at least 2
out of the preceding 3 years
 Other indicators from the longitudinal component on labour transitions,
etc.
 Availability of the microdata for researchers  large scope of crosssectional and longitudinal analyses
Eurostat
Persistent at-risk-of-poverty rate: percentage of
people under the poverty threshold for the
current year and at least 2 out of the preceding
3 years (SILC longitudinal component)
Eurostat
Early dissemination MD indicators of reference data collection year N in end N – January N+1
TEST IN
2013 ON
2012 MD
Early severe Final severe
MD rate
MD rate
2012 (%)
2012 (%)
6,3
BE(1)
6,5
CZ
6,5
6,6
FR
5,3
5,3
IT(1)
14,3
14,5
MT
8,5
8,0
AT(1)
2,3
4,0
PL
13,5
13,5
SI
6,5
6,6
FI
2,9
2,9
(1) "Final" is however still provisional
Eurostat
Severe MD
rate 2011
(%)
5,7
6,1
5,2
11,2
6,3
3,9
13,0
6,1
3,2
Evolution
severe MD
2011 - early
2012 ppt
0,6
0,4
0,1
3,1
2,2
-1,6
0,5
0,4
-0,3
Evolution
severe MD
2011 - final
2012 ppt
0,8
0,5
0,1
3,3
1,7
0,1
0,5
0,5
-0,3
Mid-term revision of the EU-2020 strategy:
revision of MD variables and indicators
Whole population:
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Existing primary MD variables:
 HH050 Ability to keep home adequately warm
 HS011-021-031 Arrears
 HS040 Capacity to afford paying 1 week annual holiday away from home
 HS050 Capacity to afford a meal with meat, chicken, fish (or vegetarian
equivalent) every second day
 HS060 Capacity to face unexpected financial expenses
 HS110 A car
New supplementary MD variables:
 HD080 Replace worn-out furniture
 PD020 Replace worn-out clothes by some new (not 2nd-hand) ones
Eurostat
Mid-term revision of the EU-2020 strategy:
revision of MD variables and indicators
Whole population (continue)
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New supplementary MD variables (continue):
 PD030 Two pairs of properly fitting shoes (including a pair of all-weather
shoes)
 PD050 Get together with friends/family (relatives) for a drink/meal at least
once a month
 PD060 Regularly participate in a leisure activity
 PD070 Spend a small amount of money each week on yourself
Mix of an existing primary MD variable (possibly) and a new
supplementary MD variable:
 HS090 A computer; and PD080 Internet connection for personal use at
home
Eurostat
Mid-term revision of the EU-2020 strategy:
revision of MD variables and indicators
Children:
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Existing primary whole population MD variables:
 HH050 Ability to keep home adequately warm
 HS011-021-031 Arrears
 HS110 A car
New supplementary whole population MD variable:
 HD080 Replace worn-out furniture
Mix of an existing primary MD variable (possibly) and a new
supplementary MD variable:
 HS090 A computer & PD080 Internet connection for personal use at home
New supplementary children MD variables:
 HD100 Some new (not second-hand) clothes
 HD110 Two pairs of properly fitting shoes (incl. a pair of all-weather shoes)
Eurostat
Mid-term revision of the EU-2020 strategy:
revision of MD variables and indicators
Children (continue):

New supplementary children MD variables (continue):
 HD120 Fruits and vegetables once a day
 HD140 One meal with meat, chicken or fish (or vegetarian equivalent) at
least once a day
 HD150 Books at home suitable for their age
 HD160 Outdoor leisure equipment
 HD170 Indoor games
 HD180 Regular leisure activity
 HD190 Celebrations on special occasions
 HD200 Invite friends round to play or eat from time to time
 HD210 Participate in school trips and school events that cost money
 HD220 Suitable place to study or do homework
 HD240 Go on holiday away from home at least one week per year
Eurostat
Other issues
Regionalisation: From 2020 onwards EU Cohesion policy funds will
be allocated using, in addition to existing indicators, AROPE and/or
some of its components (NUTS 2/1)
Use “current income”: studies show that after modelisation (the
evolution of) the income distribution based on current income is a
good estimate of (the evolution of) the actual income distribution
Use of administrative data and possibly partial / provisional
administrative as a a trade-off with timeliness
Relation with vulnerability / income, consumption and wealth (data
matching, small hook / stand alone modules)
STiK (also hook modules)
Eurostat
Links:
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/income_social
_inclusion_living_conditions/introduction
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/P
eople_at_risk_of_poverty_or_social_exclusion
https://circabc.europa.eu/faces/jsp/extension/wai/navigation/conta
iner.jsp Then: EU-SILC
Eurostat
Thank you!
[email protected]
Eurostat