Transcript OECD TRADE INDICATORS PROJECT Statistical analysis of international trade and production: towards a scoreboard of indicators Lelio Iapadre (University of L’Aquila and National Institute for Foreign.

OECD TRADE INDICATORS
PROJECT
Statistical analysis of international
trade and production:
towards a scoreboard of indicators
Lelio Iapadre (University of L’Aquila and
National Institute for Foreign Trade, Italy)
Alessia Proietti (National Institute for Foreign Trade, Italy)
Background



The OECD Handbook on Economic Globalisation Indicators (HEGI)
–
–
–
–
–
The concept of economic globalisation and its measurement
Foreign direct investment
The economic activity of multinational enterprises
The internationalisation of technology
Aspects of trade globalisation
–
–
–
–
–
International integration
Policy restrictiveness
Performance and competitiveness
Structural indicators
Structural decomposition techniques
The Trade Indicators Project (TIP): a survey of statistical indicators
on international trade and production
Enterprise-related data
– OECD Statistics on Enterprises by Size Class (SEC)
– Eurostat pilot project on enterprise-related trade data
Targets
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

Identifying a limited set of statistical
indicators, based on their analytical and
policy relevance
Developing enterprise-related indicators,
based on linkages between the existing
statistical registers and databases on
business international activities
Publishing a new statistical product on
international trade and production
TIP products in 2003
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

A taxonomy of statistical indicators for
the analysis of international trade and
production
A review of trade policy indicators
New indicators for the analysis of
intra-regional trade
The Scoreboard on
Economic Globalisation



A final target and a framework for ongoing projects
Co-ordination between different
projects (HEGI, TIP, SEC) and OECD
departments
Co-operation with other institutions
and research centres
Some examples:
international performance and
competitiveness indicators

The taxonomy:
– Net trade indicators
– Market shares
– Price indicators
– Composite indicators
Net trade performance
indicators

The normalized trade balance
Z = (X – M) / (X + M)
–1Z1
where: X = exports
M = imports
Normalised trade balance, 2003
United States
Turkey
Portugal
Spain
Luxembourg
Poland
United Kingdom
Australia
Iceland
New Zealand
Hungary
OECD
Czech Republic
Mexico
Slovak Republic
Austria
France
Italy
Switzerland
Korea
Belgium
Canada
Netherlands
Denmark
Sweden
Japan
Germany
Finland
Norway
Ireland
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Market shares

The share of OECD exports
Si = Xi / Σi Xi
0  Si  1
where: Xi = exports of country i
i = 1 … n OECD members
U
ni
Sw
itz
in
nd
ed
en
er
la
Sw
Sp
a
o
ea
M
ex
ic
Ko
r
m
2001
gi
u
nd
s
1999
Be
l
he
rla
a
Ita
ly
ng
do
m
C
an
ad
Ki
nc
e
18,0
N
et
at
es
Ja
pa
n
St
m
an
y
Fr
a
te
d
te
d
U
ni
G
er
Shares of OECD exports
2003
16,0
14,0
12,0
10,0
8,0
6,0
4,0
2,0
0,0
Source: OECD-Main Economic Indicators, March2004
la
nd
ke
y
Ic
el
an
d
2001
G
re
ec
e
Lu
xe
m
bo
ur
g
1999
Tu
r
R
ep
ub
lic
Fi
n
an
d
2,0
H
un
ga
ry
Po
rtu
Sl
ga
ov
l
ak
R
ep
ub
lic
N
ew
Ze
al
an
d
C
ze
ch
Po
l
k
ay
ar
D
en
m
N
or
w
Au
st
ra
lia
a
la
nd
Au
st
ri
Ire
Shares of OECD exports
2003
1,8
1,6
1,4
1,2
1,0
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
Competitiveness
indicators

The real effective exchange rate
q = E  P / P*
where:
E = nominal effective exchange rate
(foreign currency per unit of domestic
currency)
P = index of domestic prices
P* = index of foreign prices
Real effective exchange rates
(based on consumer prices, 1995=100)
140
130
120
110
1998
1999
2001
2000
2003
2002
100
90
80
70
Canada
France
Germany
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
Source: OECD, Main Economic Indicators
Some examples:
structural indicators

The taxonomy
– Single-flow indicators of trade intensity and
specialization
– Net-trade indicators of specialization
– Inter/Intra-industry trade intensity
– Intra-firm trade indicators
– Measures of similarity
– Measures of concentration and diversification
Single-flow indicators of
trade intensity and
specialization

The symmetric revealed comparative
advantage index
SRCAik = (RCAik – 1) / (RCAik + 1)
RCAik = (xik / Σk xik) / (xwk / Σk xwk)
where:
xik = country i’s exports of product k
xwk = world exports of product k
SYMMETRIC REVEALED COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE INDICES: FURNITURE
2003
Japan
Australia
Ireland
Norway
Luxembourg
Switzerland
United States
United Kingdom
New Zealand
Korea
Netherlands
Greece
France
Germany
OECD
Belgium
Finland
Sweden
Austria
Canada
Spain
Denmark
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Mexico
Turkey
Italy
Poland
-80,0
-60,0
-40,0
-20,0
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
Net trade indicators of
specialization

The normalized share balance
NSBik = [(xik / Σk xik) - (mik / Σk mik)] /
[(xik / Σk xik) + (mik / Σk mik)]
- 1  NSBik  1
where:
xik = country i’s exports of product k
mik = country i’s imports of product k
NORMALISED SHARE BALANCES: FURNITURE 2003
Ireland
Japan
Norway
Australia
Switzerland
Luxembourg
United Kingdom
New Zealand
United States
Korea
Netherlands
France
Germany
Greece
OECD
Belgium
Finland
Sweden
Austria
Canada
Spain
Denmark
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Mexico
Turkey
Italy
Poland
-100,0
-80,0
-60,0
-40,0
-20,0
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0
The Grubel-Lloyd index of
intra-industry trade
 xijk  mijk    xijk  mijk
n
xijk  mijk
GLijk  1 
xijk  mijk 
GLij  k 1
n
k 1
 xijk  mijk 
n
k 1

Definition of intra-industry trade:
balanced two-way trade in goods
produced by the same industry
– Inspiration: studies on trade bilateralism
in the Thirties
– Relation with measures of similarity
The Vona index of
intra-industry trade
 xijk  mijk 
m
V ij  k n1
 xijk  mijk 
k 1

Definition of intra-industry trade: twoway flows of goods produced by
the same industry, independently
of their balance

The CEPII approach: the overlap
threshold
Indices of Intra Industry Trade, HS: 94*, Furniture, 2002
(percentage values)
ITALY
GERMANY
Vona
Grubel and Lloyd
Vona
Grubel and Lloyd
Australia
71,9
0,9
63,7
2,0
Austria
100,0
55,2
100,0
47,9
Belgium
99,8
9,5
99,9
34,8
Canada
85,9
1,7
84,0
16,1
Czech Republic
94,6
32,3
100,0
40,3
Denmark
99,7
17,4
100,0
24,2
Finland
86,7
8,8
97,2
23,5
France
100,0
14,1
99,8
46,5
Germany
100,0
23,2
-
-
Greece
82,2
0,7
79,6
19,4
Hungary
92,9
28,0
99,9
42,0
Iceland
12,8
0,1
17,1
0,8
Ireland
28,9
0,8
82,2
12,1
-
-
100,0
30,1
75,3
64,9
57,7
55,3
98,8
17,1
76,9
97,5
80,3
89,0
99,7
99,4
99,9
87,3
100,0
99,6
2,0
82,2
45,6
90,1
90,2
100,0
35,5
97,9
100,0
87,3
99,9
98,5
97,8
99,9
99,5
99,8
99,9
12,8
Italy
Japan
Korea
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United Kingdom
United States
* 92 elementary items (NC8)
3,1
5,4
3,5
7,1
1,0
4,3
28,3
13,4
29,0
30,2
12,7
25,6
13,1
5,9
4,3
10,5
3,4
61,0
32,4
7,9
26,7
18,3
41,1
27,9
61,0
36,8
45,4
23,8
31,2
31,7
Measures of similarity

The Finger-Kreinin index of similarity
between trade distributions
FKij = 1 – [½ Σk |(xik / Σk xik) - (xjk / Σk xjk)|]
where:
xik = country i’s exports of product k
xjk = country j’s exports of product k
Finger-Kreinin index of similarity of export distributions by product, 2003
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Korea
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United Kingdom
United States
AUS
AUT
BEL
CAN DAN
100,0
36,5
43,4
56,2
48,3
31,8
40,5
37,4
41,7
28,2
39,6
23,3
28,6
29,7
37,1
45,9
43,9
48,1
35,4
33,8
31,1
38,9
34,5
29,0
30,3
44,8
40,7
100,0
63,2
59,1
64,1
64,7
71,3
76,9
48,9
46,8
76,1
64,2
68,6
65,7
67,0
69,3
36,1
25,3
74,5
66,9
66,2
65,8
81,0
55,9
54,5
73,4
74,9
100,0
60,3
58,8
48,0
70,6
65,6
52,9
46,9
62,6
51,6
56,9
47,9
55,1
66,5
34,5
27,3
61,4
58,7
61,0
69,5
64,9
59,7
55,0
68,5
60,4
100,0
53,8
50,1
59,8
66,4
45,1
31,4
53,1
49,4
46,6
40,9
60,1
54,6
39,1
44,7
58,6
59,3
64,1
66,4
63,0
37,1
45,8
58,6
54,7
100,0
53,5
63,4
65,4
55,2
55,0
64,4
46,2
50,3
51,2
59,2
72,3
45,7
35,6
63,1
54,6
55,4
57,3
64,5
54,1
43,5
68,6
59,0
FIN
100,0
54,2
54,3
38,2
36,0
48,8
60,4
64,0
52,4
59,9
54,6
33,7
27,2
60,8
50,5
52,7
48,5
69,7
41,8
41,3
54,4
55,8
FRA GER GRE
100,0
76,5
50,4
49,5
68,7
60,6
61,0
52,9
60,8
67,9
35,3
26,4
66,7
64,0
61,5
72,0
70,7
55,7
54,6
75,4
72,8
100,0
45,5
54,3
73,5
73,3
64,8
60,8
66,8
70,7
30,5
27,2
63,8
64,5
66,0
73,2
76,0
59,6
50,6
78,0
75,6
100,0
31,0
51,7
29,8
37,7
39,8
41,1
55,8
39,8
33,4
49,9
49,7
42,8
55,9
43,7
40,8
58,0
50,8
43,1
IRE
ITA
JPN
KOR
LUX
MEX NLD
NZL NOR
100,0
48,2
47,1
38,9
42,8
40,2
55,1
24,9
20,0
37,1
32,4
30,7
36,4
48,8
68,4
24,1
56,5
52,7
100,0
57,9
60,5
59,6
60,9
65,4
35,7
26,2
67,8
65,7
60,5
69,3
65,9
55,7
59,8
70,3
68,4
100,0
75,3
56,4
72,3
57,3
22,5
19,4
53,1
53,6
60,5
61,1
65,8
49,1
43,4
63,5
68,4
100,0
55,6
72,7
59,6
26,5
22,9
62,3
54,8
55,8
55,8
66,0
46,8
51,3
64,7
66,8
100,0
49,6
58,4
28,8
21,5
56,5
49,0
53,9
47,1
60,3
46,2
45,3
56,3
58,1
100,0
64,1
28,6
29,3
61,9
63,7
62,0
59,8
67,3
43,4
49,7
67,8
63,8
100,0
28,2
37,5
34,3
29,0
39,7
33,4
26,9
33,2
31,2
35,4
100,0
39,1
32,3
63,6
54,3
53,8
62,8
64,9
59,3
46,6
75,9
71,7
POL
POR SLO
SPA SWE CHE TUR
UK
USA
100,0
26,8 100,0
24,3 66,3 100,0
25,9 70,7 66,7 100,0
27,9 65,8 69,9 72,6 100,0
26,4 65,9 65,2 64,2 63,5 100,0
20,2 44,2 39,6 39,3 45,9 56,2 100,0
21,6 59,2 65,2 57,1 61,0 50,0 35,1 100,0
31,1 62,1 57,7 55,9 62,3 73,8 64,9 48,5 100,0
23,8 60,1 57,1 51,6 59,4 68,9 60,8 47,6 77,9 100,0
Measures of
concentration

The Herfindahl index of export concentration
by product
Hi =  x  x 
where:
xik = country i’s exports of product k
2
k
ik
k
ik
Herfindahl index of export concentration by product*
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Korea
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United Kingdom
United States
OECD
* HS - 2 digits
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
23,7
27,3
23,1
30,2
25,9
22,3
35,0
25,2
30,3
20,9
36,7
56,8
37,1
26,2
39,6
33,0
29,2
36,9
25,0
33,0
52,6
n.a.
25,3
27,0
28,8
31,5
28,7
22,5
29,0
30,1
27,2
26,2
27,6
23,2
29,3
27,5
22,7
36,8
25,4
30,4
22,6
37,9
54,5
38,5
25,5
40,3
34,9
30,8
37,6
25,9
34,9
64,6
n.a.
24,7
28,4
27,8
31,7
28,7
22,2
29,0
30,9
27,8
26,3
27,7
23,6
29,0
n.a.
23,0
34,4
25,6
30,5
20,8
n.a.
52,9
37,8
25,5
39,3
33,4
33,1
37,3
25,7
33,4
63,8
n.a.
25,1
27,1
27,4
28,9
29,1
21,8
29,2
29,6
27,0
26,1
27,5
24,1
29,1
n.a.
23,0
34,1
24,8
30,7
20,1
n.a.
52,0
37,1
25,1
39,7
35,4
32,6
36,6
24,6
35,4
63,6
23,1
25,0
27,7
27,1
28,8
29,2
23,3
28,3
28,8
26,7
25,9
27,1
24,0
29,5
n.a.
22,9
33,1
24,5
30,5
19,7
n.a.
n.a.
35,1
25,5
39,7
36,4
36,2
36,0
24,4
36,4
63,2
23,2
24,8
33,2
28,0
28,9
29,3
23,4
27,1
28,1
26,4
The need for enterpriserelated statistics


A clear understanding of phenomena
such as intra-firm trade and
international production networks
requires enterprise-related data
Available statistical sources
– The AFA and FATS databases
– Enterprise-related trade statistics
Italian exports value by
enterprise size - 2001
30,8%
1-49
employees
50-99
employees
100-249
employees
250-499
employees
more than 500
employees
31,2%
10,8%
15,9%
11,3%
Italian exporting firms by
number of markets - 2001
26 - 40
3%
16 - 25
5%
more than 40
1%
11 - 15
5%
1
45%
6 - 10
10%
3-5
17%
2
14%
1
2
3-5
6 - 10
11 - 15
16 - 25
26 - 40
more than 40
SHARES OF THE UNITED STATES MARKET
Foreign affiliates employees
Merchandise imports
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Italy 1987
Italy 1998
France 1987
Source: OECD, Measuring Globalization and IMF-DOTS.
France 1998
Germany 1987
Germany 1998
United Kingdom
1987
United Kingdom
1998
Conclusions

Main features of the Scoreboard on
Economic Globalization
– An integrated analysis of international trade and
production
– Emphasis on enterprise-related data
– A user-friendly tool, giving access to a wide
range of different data-bases
– A laboratory for new data production techniques,
based on linkages between different archives