Transcript 9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011 TIGGE LAM Report Tiziana Paccagnella with contributions from J.

9th GIFS TIGGE WG
Geneva
31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
TIGGE LAM Report
Tiziana Paccagnella
with contributions from
J. Kacker, J. Chen, C. Saulo
and other colleagues
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
Content
1.
TIGGE LAM overall activities
a.
b.
c.
2.
Link with FDPs and RDPs & Link with the WWRP Mesoscale WG
a.
b.
3.
New Structure of the Panel
The Plan
Archiving
Frost FDP RDP
Hymex
Activities in Europe
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
EurEPS Project (SRNWP)
LAM-EPS meeting & LAMEPS BC project
EPS DA meeting > Bologna
High resolution precipitation analyses (HIPRECA)
Link with SRNWP Interoperability Programme
6.
Activities in NA by Josh Hacker
Activities in Asia by Jing Chen
Activities in SA by Celeste Saulo
7.
TIGGE LAM @ ….
4.
5.
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
TIGGE LAM overall activities
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
Restructuring of the Panel
The Panel has been (and is being) restructured trying to make it
more efficient at Regional level.
New members have been asked to join the Panel to engage
people personally involved in LAM EPS and then in the
position to make plans and to take commitments.
The Panel has been divided in regional sub-groups:
N. America
< J. Hacker
Asia
< J. Chen
Europe
< T. Paccagnella
S. America
< C. Saulo
Africa
< S. Landman
Australia/New Zealand
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
TIGGE LAM Plan
The TIGGE LAM plan
almost ready.
Some more work done
especially on the scientific
issues.
Tiziana and Josh will
revise it together during
the SRNWP meeting in
Tallin next month.
Plan on the
November
web
[email protected]
in
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
Archiving
Archiving of high priority parameters on regular lat/lon
grids.

CMA is starting the archiving of TIGGE LAM HP
parameters from CMA Regional system.

The archiving of European products at ECMWF has
been slowed down due to other priorities at ECMWF.
Archiving of TIGGE LAM products on their native grids

LAM EPS are going to run at the convective-permitting
scale. Products on the native grids should be made
available and tools to manage these data should be
developed.

As regards Europe, this task has been included into the
GEO-WOW FP7 < D. Richardson presentation
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
Link with FDPs and RDPs & Link with the
WWRP Mesoscale WG
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
Link with FDPs and RDPs
LAM EPS and Hymex
TTM1a
High resolution ensemble hydrometeorological
modelling for quantification of uncertainties
Leaders:
A. Montani
ARPA-SIMC, Italy
[email protected]
ARPA-SIMC (Italy)
ISAC CNR (Italy)
Météo-France (France)
UIB (Spain)
NRL (US)
… others to join?…
[email protected]
V. Homar
Universitat de les Illes Balears, Spain
[email protected]
More about Hymex by L. Descamps
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
TTM1a – main objectives
• LAM Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) with parameterized convection and typical horizontal
resolution of about 10 km, employed for short and medium-range forecasts (up to 5 days).
• Convection-Permitting Ensemble Prediction Systems (CPEPS) with explicit convection and
horizontal resolution of a few kilometres, employed for short-range predictions (up to 48 hours).
• Hydrological ensemble predictions.
• Calibration methods.
• Verification methods.
Interlinks with Data Assimilation.
On the one hand, data assimilation methods taking into account the flow-dependent instabilities need to
identify the growing perturbations at convective scales. On the other hand, the use of an ensemble system
for data assimilation purposes poses some constraints on the way the ensemble should be built.
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
Link with FDPs and RDPs
FROST-2014
Forecast and Research
in the Olympic Sochi Testbed
Tiziana !!!
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
FROST
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
FROST-2014
Forecast and Research in the Olympic Sochi Testbed
WG1: Observations and nowcasting (including Verification)
WG Leader: Arcadi Koldaev / Valery Lukyanov / Yuriy Melnichuk (radars)
Members: Arcadi Koldaev, Yury Melnichuk, Yong Wang, Paul Joe, George Isaac, Roy
Rasmussen, Dmitri Moisseev, Peter Romanov, Anatoly Muravev, IRAM
representatives, Gdaly Rivin, Evgeny Vasilev, Pertti Nurmi?
WG2: NWP, ensembles and assimilation (including Verification)
WG Leader: Michail Tsyrulnikov / , Andrea Montani
Members: Stephane Belair, Andrea Montani, Detlev Majewski, Gdaly Rivin, Yong
Wang, Roy Rasmussen, Tiziana Paccagnella, Donghi Wang, Anatoly Muravev, Michail
Tolstykh, Inna Rozinkina, Pertti Nurmi?
WG3: IT including graphical tools, formats, archiving and
telecommunication
WG Leader: Dmitry Kiktev
Members: Alex Kolker, Vladimir Krupchatnikov, Sergei Loubov, Gennady Novikov,
Alexander Smirnov
WG4: Products, training, end user assessment and social impacts
WG Leader: Valery Lukyanov / Evgeny Vasilev
Members: Vladimir Oganesian, George Isaac, Anatoly Muravev, Dmitry Moiseev,
Pertti Nurmi, Galina Zaimskikh, Inna Rozinkina, Pertti Nurmi.
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
FDP (Forecast Demonstration Project) ensemble
activities
SOCHMEL7: limited-area ensemble system based on
COSMO
(“relocation” of COSMO-LEPS)
Horizontal resoluzion: 7 km.
Vertical resolution: 40 model levels.
Forecast range: 72 hours.
Starting time: 00UTC, 12UTC.
Ensemble size: 10 members.
Boundary conditions: selected ECMWF EPS members.
Initial conditions: interpolated from ECMWF EPS members.
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
Link with WWRP MWFR WG
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
Activities in Europe
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
From slides by C.
SRNWP-EurEPS-2013-2017
Marsigli
Cooperation on European Limited-area Ensemble
Prediction Systems




EurEPS - A proposal by the SRNWP Expert Team on
Predictability and EPS
In the Roadmap for the Forecasting Capability Area of
EUMETNET the creation of a Eur-EPS Programme is
envisaged
A major cooperative effort is required to develop a capability
for convection-permitting ensembles in order to address
prediction of severe or high-impact weather in a probabilistic
framework
EurEPS
Phase
I is proposed to be carried out in 2013, in order to identify
properly all the needed technical facility, the requirements for
Research and Development to design properly this innovative
kind of systems and the potential framework for running the
Phase II as a demonstration project
Phase II would be executed over a 4-year time frame (2014–2017)
as a demonstration project
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
SRNWP LAM-EPS meeting, Bologna, 22-23 February 2011
Some Outcomes

The EUMETNET Forecasting Roadmap has been presented by A. Horanyi:
Short-Range EPS is one of the 4 priority areas for cooperation which have
been identified

Requirements to ECMWF in terms of EPS boundary conditions to drive
LAM-EPSs have been discussed.
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
LAMEPS BC project
•
•
•
•
[email protected]
Possibilities being explored:
•
2 extra EPS runs at 06 and 18 UTC
•
Higher resolution for the first 2 days
•
Lower resolution up to 6 days
•
T1279 up to 48 h, 21 members
•
T639 up to 144 h, 51 members
M. Leutbecher ECMWF performs some
test cases and data sets are available
LAM-EPS interested partners will
perform tests of their systems driven by
these BCs within 6 months (until January
2012).
A meeting will be organised at ECMWF
in Spring 2012, to evaluate the possible
establishment
such
LAMEPS
9th GIFS TIGGEof
WG
Geneva
31 Aug – 2 BC
Sept 2011
SRNWP LAM-EPS meeting, Bologna, 22-23 February 2011
Some Outcomes from the minutes

It was decided to make an inventory of the status and plans of LAM-EPS
activities within SRNWP, based on the review provided by this meeting,
highlighting the scientific issues.

This inventory would provide the basis to write a common paper, to be
submitted to BAMS, where the status of the European contribution to
TIGGE-LAM will be presented. Tiziana will contact the editor.

After the meeting, the proposal to write and submit a Community Paper to
BAMS has been extended to all the LAM EPS community and has been
accepted

The content and the structure of the paper should be defined within October
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
EPS DA meeting >
Bologna
Q1. Model error
Q2 Covariance filtering
Q3 Localisation
Q4 Enforcing large scale from host model
Q5 Non-gaussianity and non-linearity
Q6 The ensemble system should mimic the DA system
Q7 Choice of data assimilation method (proposed by DA parallel
session)
Q8 Is it possible a “good” selection of a few relevant
global/driving EPS members?
Q9 Can we really get rid of balance constraint?
Q10 scalability
Q11 Are there any things we should not perturb (such as the
orography)?
Q12 Experiments in toy models suggest that the use of flowdependent covariances gives much improved analyses. To date
the benefits of using ensemble forecasts in NWP analyses have
been much smaller. What is the cause of this discrepancy?
Some have suggested model error - is there a way to prove if
this is the cause?
Q13 Is it possible to formulate a weak-constraint EnKF, similar to
weak constraint 4D-Var?
Q14 (Q7 of DA list) Is an ensemble based on singular vectors any
use for DA? What about the one based on error-breeding?
[email protected]
Q15 In building analysis ensembles, some centres generate pairs of
positive and negative perturbations or implement some other
centering of analysis perturbations (with the intention to
improve the quality of the ensemble mean forecast). Other
centres seem to avoid such centering of initial perturbations
(with the intention to simplify the scheme and to let the
perturbations explore more phase-space directions). Is there any
recent evidence in favour of either approach?
Q16
How to compare different DA methods on the
convectionpermitting scale in a scientifically acceptable way
(duration, domain, resolution, physics of the models, etc.)?
Q17 What diagnostic methods can the data assimilation community
offer to assess the realism of stochastic parameterizations for
representing model uncertainty? (e.g.through the correctness of
the background error covariance matrix?)
A question (Q18) has been then posed by T. Paccagnella: is it
possible to initialise a CP model with an analysis obtained by
computing the ensemble mean of an EnKF? Are there balance
problems?
Q19 What are the key factors controlling the structure and
magnitude of analysis errors and background errors? How
essential is a representation of model uncertainty for obtaining
reliable flow-dependent estimates of background error
covariances?
Q20 Given the increasing complexity of forecast models (e.g.,
nonhydrostatic formulation, micro physics, ...), what are the
consequences of this process for data assimilation algorithms?
More specific, what is the future of 4d-var with its crucial role of
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
linear physics?
HIPRECA: HIgh resolution PREcipitation Analyses for verification as a
complement to TIGGE and TIGGE LAM products.
The possibility to implement an European archive of high resolution precipitation analyses based on high
density network data is being explored. Contacts are established with ECMWF and with other European
groups and initiatives with the same objectives.
Basic set-up: Proposal/Desiderata
Possible upgrades
◦24 hour cumulated precipitation at the
highest possible resolution ( a guess: 0.1 °)
◦Shorter accumulation periods
◦More parameters
◦Access to the analyses through registration
and by submission of a short work
description.
◦Data providers will be automatically
informed about the registration and they will
have one week (?) to raise objections. After
one week the user is registered.
◦Analysis methodology: the methodology by
Anna Ghelli (and Carlos Santos)
◦More analyses methodologies applied to the
same dataset
◦Availability of a standard verification
package
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
HIPRECA: HIgh resolution PREcipitation Analyses for verification as
a complement to TIGGE and TIGGE LAM products.
Criticity > lack of resources
Cooperation with other similar initiatives in Europe.
A meeting has been organized by Anna Ghelli at ECMWF on the 2nd Dec 2010. This meeting was
aimed to coordinate this activity with the EUMETGRID/EUMETNET project leaded by Ole Tveito
from Met.No. Participants: Anna Ghelli (ECMWF), Ole Tveito (Met.No), Dan Hollis (MetOffice),
Tiziana Paccagnella (ARPA-SIMC TIGGE LAM). This initiative should also link with other ongoing
projects like EURO4M and ARCIS (Northern Italy initiative)
Possibility to set-up a coordinated activity (to be hopefully funded by submitting a project proposal to
EU)
Ongoing contacts with Ole Tveito.
This issue will be raised next week at the MWFR WG meeting in Berlin.
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
Courtesy R. North
[email protected]
SRNWP Interoperability Programme
Coordinator: Rachel North – Met Office
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
Courtesy R. North
SRNWP Interoperability Programme
Coordinator: Rachel North – Met Office
Continuation of the SRNWP Programme under discussion

Possible deliverables:



Maintenance Plan for the Adaptors
Extension of the existent SW tools to provide Lateral Boundary Conditions
from Global and LAM to LAM
Soil aspects and Interoperability of Surface fields
The ET EPS and TIGGE LAM have been requested by Rachel North to
express their opinions about the different possible options for phase two
Next steps (during Autumn):


Final agreement among the Programme Partners about the content of the
continuation proposal
Submission of the proposal to STAC/PFAC and the the EUMETNET Assembly
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
Activities in NA by Josh Hacker
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
Activities in NA by Josh Hacker
Joshua Hacker
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
Joshua Hacker
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
Activities in Asia by Jing Chen
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
Asia Regional EPS Activities
Jing Chen
•
•
•
China, Japan and Korea will held workshop on Numerical
Weather Prediction at Seoul from 1 Sep. 2011 to 2 Sep
2011
To share experience and knowledge on promotion of
ensemble prediction system (EPS) products under
uncertainty
Discussing Regional cooperation for developing
8/30/11
Comparison of GEPS and REPS for China Precip.
Precipitation Probability (>0.1mm,36-60h)
in China average for 2010092612-2010102512
1.0
Observed Relative Frequency
0.9
Brier Score
36-60hr
GEPS
0.8
REPS
Reliability diagram
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
36-60hr
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
Forecast Probability
Area of ROC, Total Precipitation >(13.0mm) in China
average for 2010092612-2010102512
0.9
Area of ROC
0.8
Area of ROC for heavyGEPS
rain
Locations of 2510 rain gauge stations
REPS
0.7
0.6
0.5
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
Forecast range [hours]
48
54
60
1.0
CMA Future plans
•
•
The Numerical Prediction Center (NPC) ,CMA was
established in April. 2010.
NPC will develop The Global/Regional Assimilation and
Prediction System (GRAPES) as the next generation
medium-range operational model of CMA.
•
NPC will develop GRAPES-based GEPS and REPS also.
•
2015 : real running of GRAPES-REPS with 0.15 degree
8/30/11
Development of Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction
System (MEPS) at JMA
Objective: provide information on uncertainty in operational numerical
prediction from the mesoscale model (MSM).
(MSM: operated on a domain covering Japan and its surrounding region with 5km
grid spacing.)
Current Status:
Methodologies have been implemented to create perturbed Initial conditions.
Singular Vector Method, Ensemble Data assimilation (EnKF, En3DVar)
Consideration is underway on
resolution and ensemble size:
more emphasis on probability information (=> low resolution, large ensemble
size) / on multiple scenarios (=> high resolution, small ensemble size)
design of perturbed boundary condition, model-physics perturbation etc.
Forecast Example from the MEPS (3-h precipitation)
Observation
Initial : 18 UTC, 11 July 2010 (T+06)
Forecast : dx =10 km, Num. of forecasts 41
Perturbation : Singular vector method
Control forecast
Ensemble maximum
Ensemble spread
Researches at MRI/JMA relating to regional EPS
1) Development and comparison of initial perturbation methods using mesoscale/global SV,
BGM and LETKF and lateral perturbation methods in the WWRP Beijing 2008 Olympics
Research and Development Project (B08RDP):
Saito, K., M. Kunii, M. Hara, H. Seko, T. Hara, M. Yamaguchi, T. Miyoshi and W. Wong, 2010: WWRP Beijing 2008 Olympics Forecast
Demonstration / Research and Development Project (B08FDP/RDP). Tech. Rep. MRI, 62, 210pp.
•Saito, K., M. Hara, M. Kunii, H. Seko, and M. Yamaguchi, 2011: Comparison of initial perturbation methods for the mesoscale ensemble
prediction system of the Meteorological Research Institute for the WWRP Beijing 2008 Olympics Research and Development Project
(B08RDP). Tellus, 63A, 445-467.
•Kunii, M., K. Saito, H. Seko, M. Hara, T. Hara, M. Yamaguchi, J. Gong, M. Charron, J. Du, Y. Wang and D. Chen, 2011: Verifications and
intercomparisons of mesoscale ensemble prediction systems in B08RDP. Tellus, 63A, 531-549.
•Duan, Y., J. Gong, M. Charron, J. Chen, G. Deng, G. DiMego, J. Du, M. Hara, M. Kunii, X. Li , Y. Li, K. Saito, H. Seko, Y. Wang, and C. Wittmann,
2011: An overview of Beijing 2008 Olympics Research and Development Project (B08RDP). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. (conditionally
accepted)
•Saito, K., H. Seko, M. Kunii and T. Miyoshi, 2011: Effect of lateral boundary perturbations on the breeding method and the local ensemble
transform Kalman filter for mesoscale ensemble prediction. Tellus. (conditionally accepted)
•
2) Validation of regional EPS and ensemble storm scale data assimilation:
Seko, H., K. Saito, M. Kunii1 and M. Kyouda, 2009: Mesoscale Ensemble Experiments on Potential Parameters for Tornado Formation.
SOLA, 5, 57-60.
•Saito, K., T. Kuroda, M. Kunii and N. Kohno, 2010: Numerical Simulations of Myanmar Cyclone Nargis and the Associated Storm Surge Part
2: Ensemble prediction. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan. 88, 547-570.
•Aonashi, K. and H. Eito, 2011: Displaced Ensemble Variational Assimilation Method to Incorporate Microwave Imager Brightness
Temperatures into a Cloud-resolving Model. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan. 89, 175-194.
•Seko, H., T. Miyoshi, Y. Shoji and K. Saito, 2011: A data assimilation experiment of PWV using the LETKF system -Intense rainfall event on 28
July 2008-. Tellus, 63A, 402-414.
•
3) Development of a cloud resolving ensemble analysis/prediction sytem in the K-computer
project
•
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/hpci-sp/kisyo/kisyo.en.html#kisyo_2
Activities in SA by Celeste Saulo
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
By Celeste Saulo
Super model ensemble system
http://www.master.iag.usp.br/ind.php?inic=00&prod=intercomparacaodemodelos/phps
By Celeste Saulo
SMES
• Now includes 54 model outputs, that combine
GCMs, with regional models (mainy ETA-BRAMS,
and WRF).
• Some models contribute with different members
of their ensemble (CPTEC models, for example)
• Products are available at station points (not
maps!)
• The web page is interactive, and the user can
select any model, and any synoptic station and
plot surface variables forecasts
By Celeste Saulo
Examples
• Surface temperature according to some models.
• Blue dots are the observations and red curve is the Super
Ensemble Mean (bias corrected!)
By Celeste Saulo
?
Complex case...
11-12 days of useful forecast
Note that this is particularly
difficult period to forecast!
Large
discrepancies
7-8 days of usefull forecast
By Celeste Saulo
Products developed at CIMA (CONICET-UBA) ARGENTINA
http://wrf.cima.fcen.uba.ar
Using the SMES, we routinely produce probabilistic precipitation forecasts over part of
South America. These products are calibrated using GTS data and/or CMORPH data
(other results available in Ruiz et al 2009 (W&F) and Cardazzo et al 2010
(Meteorologica)
TIGGE LAM @ ….

DRIHMS (Distributed Research Infrastructure for Hydro-Meteorology Study) -First
open consultation meeting. Genova 14 Oct. 2010. “Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting
and TIGGE-LAM” Tiziana Paccagnella

EGU 2010 Meeting, Vien. TIGGE, TIGGE LAM and the GIFS T. Paccagnella D.
Richardson D. Schuster R. Swinbank Z. Toth S. Worley

4th HYMEX workshop, Bologna, 8-10 June 2010. “HyMeX and TIGGE-LAM”. Laurent
Descamps, Andrea Montani, Tiziana Paccagnella

QPE QPF Meeting, 2010 Nanjing. Ongoing developments on LIMITED AREA
ENSEMBLE FORECASTING and TIGGE LAM Tiziana Paccagnella

SOCHI Kick Off Meeting, 2011 Sochi. TIGGE LAM & SOCHI 2014 T. Paccagnella
R. Swinbank Z. Toth

WWRP JSC Meeting 2011 Geneva
EPS DA SRNWP meeting – 2011 Bologna
LAM EPS meeting – 2011 Bologna




Contribution to the definition of the GEO-WOW FP7 proposal
Contribution to THORPEX mid-term report


[email protected]
ERM – Sarah Jones
TIGGE – R. Swinbank and Zoltan Toth
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
Thank you!
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
SUPPORTING AND COMPLEMENTARY SLIDES
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
Slide by C. Marsigli
SRNWP-EurEPS-2013-2017
Cooperation on European Limited-area Ensemble Prediction
Systems
EurEPS - A proposal by the SRNWP Expert Team on Predictability and EPS
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
Slide by C. Marsigli
The new EurEPS proposal
To be presented at the EUMETNET Assembly on November 22nd

In the Roadmap for the Forecasting Capability Area of
EUMETNET the creation of a Eur-EPS Programme is
envisaged

A major cooperative effort is required to develop a
capability for convection-permitting ensembles in
order to address prediction of severe or high-impact
weather in a probabilistic framework

EurEPS - Phase I is proposed to be carried out in 2013,
in order to identify properly all the needed technical
facility, the requirements for Research and
Development to design properly this innovative kind
of systems and the potential framework for running
the Phase II as a demonstration project
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
Slide by C. Marsigli
The new EurEPS proposal
Phase I
Phase I will:

build whenever possible on existing know-how and expertise,
available within the various European NWP Consortia;

plan the use of results from SRNWP-I and SRNWP-V project for
verification and interoperability of EPS;

schedule scientific and technical experiments for later to design a
convection-permitting ensemble system;

consider the most suitable initial state, its ensemble spread, the models
errors and lower-boundary uncertainties, the available nesting
techniques;

meet the requirements of all the involved partners, to provide a
suitable system, applicable by the different Meteorological Centres,
which will permit to significantly improve the forecasts of high impact
weather

Analyze and evaluate:




state-of-the-art of LAM-EPS scientific methodologies for very highresolution ensemble, including technical constraints;
available and future computer resources scenarios;
consider the necessary products for key end-users
deliver the EurEPS Phase II project proposal for the EUMETNET Advisory
Committees
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
Slide by C. Marsigli

The new EurEPS proposal
Phase II
Phase II would be executed over a 4-year time
frame (2014–2017) as a demonstration project
that, outside of a fully operational context,
would hopefully show the usefulness of its
results towards fundamental case studies and
the likely implementability of a full EurEPS
project with a distributed load of
responsibility
among
Members
when
adequate computing resources might be
allocated.
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
Slide from A. Montani
LAMEPS BC project
Aim: generation of EPS boundary conditions (at 6 and/or 18 UTC) for
use of LAMEPS community
The issue: to make progress in terms of increasing the efficiency of archiving and retrieving
EPS data.
The solution: to archive the data on the native reduced Gaussian grid of the ECMWF IFS, but
only in a region of interest over the Northern Atlantic and Europe
The next step: to check if the regionally archived EPS data can be used by the LAMEPS
groups.
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
[email protected]
9th GIFS TIGGE WG Geneva 31 Aug – 2 Sept 2011
NIMR LAM EPS: Domain and Configurations
Ensemble Configurations
Model(member name)
Domain
Configurations
▪ Horizontal grid : 18 km (181 Ⅹ211)
MM5 (M1~M4)
GSMM5 (G1~G4)
▪ Vertical layer : 35 sigma layers
▪ Initial, lateral boundary condition : GDAPS
▪ 4times/1day, 60hr forecast (interval:1hr)
▪ Horizontal grid : 15 km (251 Ⅹ251)
WRF ARW(W1~W4)
WRF NMM (N1)
▪ Vertical layer : 35 sigma layers
▪ Initial, lateral boundary condition : UM
▪ 4times/1day, 60hr forecast (interval:1hr)
▪ Initial condition : KLAPS(K1), GSI(I1)
GSMM5: A Generalized Sigma coordinate
system for the MM5 has been established to
explain uncertainties which resulted from
topographic effect (Zangl, 2003)
▪ lateral boundary condition : UM

▪ 4times/1day, 60hr forecast (interval:1hr)
replaced the Spectral Statistical Interpolation
▪ Horizontal grid : 15 km (251 Ⅹ251)
▪ Vertical layer : 40 sigma layers
WRF ARW (K1, I1)
▪ Horizontal grid : 12 km (540 Ⅹ432)
▪ Vertical layer : 38 charney-phillips
[email protected]
UM (U1)

GSI : Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI),
(SSI) 3DVAR system at the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
(continued)
Model
MM5
GSMM5
WRF ARW
WRF NMM
WRF ARW-DA
Member
Micro physics
Cumulus
M1
WSM5
re-KF2
M2
WSM5
KF2
M3
Schultz
KF2
M4
Reisner2
KF2
G1
Schultz
KF2
G2
Reisner2
KF2
G3
Schultz
Grell
G4
Reisner2
Grell
W1
WSM3
KF2
W2
WSM3
BMJ
W3
WSM5
KF2
W4
WSM5
BMJ
N1
Ferrier
BMJ
K1
WSM6
KF2
I1
WSM6
KF2
UM
U1
Improved Mixed phase
CMODS
 re-KF2 : revised Kain-Fritsch 2 by Lee et al. (2006)
 GSMM5 : YSU PBL version (NIMR)
 MM5 : YSU PBL version (NIMR), WSM5 (using WRF WSM5, NIMR)
 UM : regional model forecast from NWP operation
[email protected]
PBL
YSU
YSU
YSU
MYJ
YSU
MOSES-II
non-local K