Transcript Why it is high time for the Graham Sustainability Institute to include Population stabilization on its (policy, research) agenda Katta G.

Why it is high time for the Graham
Sustainability Institute to include
Population stabilization on its (policy,
research) agenda
Katta G. Murty
IOE Emeritus Professor
http:www-personal.umich.edu/ ~ murty/
1

Did God create this vast Mother Earth

& all these marvelous living creatures on it

for humans to make other creatures extinct

and fill the earth to the brim with humans????
2
What is Sustainability

Sustainability = science of using natural resources so they
last, remain available, for a long time.

Refers to life style using sustainable methods, making sure
we will have: Water, materials, resources for present &
future generations.

Requires responsible decision making, meeting needs of
present, not compromising ability of future generations
meeting their needs. To ensure desirable planet for all
species now, & into future.
3
The role of GHG (Green House Gas)
emissions

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)
concluded from 3 massive studies, that GHG emissions
from human activities causing climate change conditions
difficult for society to cope.

Sustainability requires meeting present needs without
degrading natural environment. New threat to this from
Human greenhouse effect, from forest clearing, GHG
emissions from burning of fossil fuels.
4
Role of population

Let I = environmental impact (in some units) caused by
humans

P = population size

A = Units of environmental impact by average human.

Then I = P x A

A depends on lifestyle and technology used for that
lifestyle, can be reduced by improving technology in use.

All research effort today focused only on reducing A,
totally ignoring P.
(1)
5
Effects on ecosystems from present
population

Making food for current 7 billion population
heavy toll
on earth's resources, uses 40% land surface, & moving
many sea creatures closer to extinction.

Edward Osborne Wilson, Harvard entomologist Pulitzer
Prize Winner (natural heir to Darwin) breaks ground for
construction of a big castle in England, to pay tribute to
species made extinct by humans.
6
7

Millennium ecosystems assessment by International panel
of 1000 biologists says: Of 24 ecosystems, only 4 stable,
15 in serious decline, 5 in precarious condition. Present
human activities having significant negative impact on
biodiversity of world ecosystems. Major cause habitat loss
from human appropriation of land.

Indicates humans already living beyond carrying capacity
of Mother Earth.
8
9
Situation Analysis, Population
projections

Already water shortages in many countries. Even Brazil,
containing world's largest river, Amazon, has severe water
shortages.

Entire Middle East survives on desalinated water, making
which leads to enormous GHG emissions. Even USA has
desalination plants, so does India.

Projections by UN Population division say: even with
stringent actions by world govts., population will reach 9
billion by 2050, between 10 to 12 billion by 2100 (Science
10 Oct 14 PP 234-237) .
10
11
Consequences

High correlation bet. population growth & environmental
degradation. As population , to provide basic essentials
for these people local ecosystems .

From eq. (1), we see that GHG emissions control not
possible by making technology super efficient alone:
because reductions from efficient technology not enough
to offset increases necessary to serve growing population.
12
13
Population growth global problem

US birth rate presently below replacement level, but US
population from illegal immigration from south of
border. Given human ingenuity, Very hard to stop illegal
immigration.

So population growth global problem, has to be tackled
globally.

Most countries look to US for leadership. So if US adopts
population stabilization as our national policy, good
chance other countries will follow. China already had this.
14
Population stabilization in mission
statement

Name sustainability concerns: specification of actions by
present generation, making sure to not diminish prospects
of future generations enjoying comfortable lifestyle.

For all these reasons, with your name Graham
Sustainability Institute, it is high time to include
population stabilization in your mission, planning and
research agenda.
15
What can we do?

Need your help in contacting key people in US Govt. to
get Population Stabilization as our National policy
16
Great New Research Opportunities

So far, we have always had Economic growth, and
consequent job growth. We became accustomed to
economic growth, and always envy countries with high
economic growth.

Part of the present economic growth comes from
population growth.

As population stabilizes, we cannot take economic
growth, job growth, for granted. A new research topic is
the study of how world can adopt to the conditions under
a stable population.
17