Transcript Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics: Threats and Responses High Level Forum on Official Statistics 42nd UNSC New York Pali Lehohla Statistician-General South Africa 21 February 2011

Fundamental Principles of Official
Statistics: Threats and Responses
High Level Forum on Official Statistics
42nd UNSC
New York
Pali Lehohla
Statistician-General South Africa
21 February 2011
Outline of presentation
1. Context of statistical development
2. Statistics of politics and politics of statistics
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Case studies
3. Positioning a statistics system
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In country
Globally
4. Justice must not only be done but must be
seen to be done
5. Has justice been done
6. Has justice been seen to be done
7. Concluding Remarks
Context of Statistical development
Political statistics
Statistical politics
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End of 2nd World War 1944
Eurostat is born (1953)
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Creation of the UNSC in (1947)
Framework for national
accounting (1947)
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Establishment of the European
political cooperation (1970)
Lagos Plan of Action and MIP
for Africa (1980)
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A Handbook of Statistical
Organisation 2nd Edition (1980)
HDI (1990)
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End of the Cold War (1991)
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Beijing Conference (1995)
Birth of G20 (1997)
Millennium Declaration and
birth of MDGs (2000)
African Union Constitutive Act
(2002)
Financial & economic crisis
(2008)
Lisbon Treaty signed (2009)
BRICS established 2011
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Fundamental Principles of
Official Statistics (1994)
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IMF (G&S) DDS (1998)
PARIS21 (1999)
MDG measurement (2000)
National Strategies for the
Development of Statistics
(2001)
Marrakesh Plan of Action (2004)
GIVAS (2009)
Global Pulse (2010)
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Statistics of politics and politics of statistics
2003 UNSC Claims by Palestine
Allegation
Israel in attacking Palestine took
the Census records and used this
individual records to pursue
attacks on individual Palestinians.
Israel had therefore violated
Principle 6. Individual data collected
by statistical agencies for statistical
compilation, whether they refer to
natural or legal persons, are to be
strictly confidential and used
exclusively for statistical purposes
Matter tabled for discussion
Commission set it for 2005 UNSC
Result
Although the matter was set for hearing
for the next UNSC it was never presented
The delegate of Palestine was denied a
visa by the US authorities and so no one
could lead evidence on the matter
The UNSC thus has not been enabled to
execute its fiduciary duties and there
remains no closure on this matter over
which we could test first the validity of
claims by Palestine and secondly how
the UNSC could best serve the principles
Has the UNSC undermined the
framework for managing its work and
rendered the Fundamental principles less
useful?
Statistics of politics and politics of statistics
2008 UNSC: Addressing poverty in Indonesia
Statement
Dilemma
Records from NSO were used
to identify poor households
and address poverty
The statistics office is now in a
catch 22 since it does not see how
it exits the situation.
The Records are now used for
monitoring and resolving
poverty
Does benevolence and
responsiveness constitute a
violation?
Is Indonesia violating Principle
6. Individual data collected by
statistical agencies for statistical
compilation, whether they refer to
natural or legal persons, are to be
strictly confidential and used
exclusively for statistical purposes
Statistics of politics and politics of statistics
2009 GIVAS and Global Pulse 2011
Position of Secretary General
Concern of UNSC
As a policy maker my needs are for
information and data that addresses
problems and that helps me resolve them
and the sooner the better
The measurement environment is
complex and require time
A number of these problems do not send
a letter of notice that we are going to
strike as problems.
Therefore be innovative, the world is not
going to wait for you
Is the Secretary General unduely interfering and
hampering the work of the Commission and
therefore affecting the fundamental principles
adversely
UNSC is not against innovation but such
innovation should be tested and be
produced in terms of:
Principle 2. To retain trust in official
statistics, the statistical agencies need to
decide according to strictly professional
considerations, including scientific
principles and professional ethics, on the
methods and procedures…
Principle 8. Coordination among statistical
agencies within countries is essential to
achieve consistency and efficiency in the
statistical system.
Principle 9. The use by statistical agencies
in each country of international concepts,
classifications and methods promotes the
consistency and efficiency of statistical
systems at all official levels.
Statistics of politics and politics of statistics
Dr Munir Sheikh (former Chief statistician Canada)
Munir Sheikh’s testimony before the Commons industry committee
reminded us of something that too many forget:He did not resign as
deputy minister responsible for Statistics Canada for the wrong
reason; he resigned for the right reason.
Mr. Sheikh only resigned when Industry Minister Tony Clement
claimed something he should never have claimed. In a July 16 story
on The Globe and Mail’s front page, Mr. Clement stated in an
interview that Statistics Canada had assured him a voluntary
survey, sent to a larger group of people, would yield satisfactory
results.
“I asked [Statistics Canada] specifically, ‘Are you confident you can
do your job?'” he told Steven Chase. “They said ‘If you do these
extra things: the extra advertising and the extra sample size, then
yes, we can do our job.'
Source the Globe and Mail John Ibbitson 27 July 2010
Statistics of politics and politics of statistics
Dr Munir Sheikh former Chief Statistician Canada
Did Mr. Clement violate
Principle 1. Official statistics provide an indispensable element in the
information system of a democratic society, serving the Government, the
economy and the public with data about the economic, demographic, social
and environmental situation. To this end, official statistics that meet the test
of practical utility are to be compiled and made available on an impartial
basis by official statistical agencies to honor citizens' entitlement to public
information.
Principle 2. To retain trust in official statistics, the statistical agencies need
to decide according to strictly professional considerations, including
scientific principles and professional ethics, on the methods and procedures
for the collection, processing, storage and presentation of statistical data.
Is Statistics Canada going to go ahead with an optional long form or will it
only go with the short form, thereby violating ministerial decision and
instruction? Or will it retain half of the professional integrity and only go for
the short form and loose time series and violate Principle 2?
Statistics of politics and politics of statistics
Ms Graciela Bevacqua former head of CPI Argentina
• Government price watchdog asks economists to explain data
•Inflation a leading concern among voters as poll nears
•Last year, the Fernandez administration invited the IMF to help Indec to
•build a national CPI
•IMF said in December that it would submit its final recommendations for the
new CPI in April (2011)
•Last year, Graciela Bevacqua, who was responsible for running Indec’s CPI,
told a Senate hearing that Moreno had pressured her to doctor inflation data so
it would appear innocuously low.
•Mrs. Bevacqua said that she was “persecuted and pressured everyday to
change the numbers” and accused Mr. Moreno of bullying her and other Indec
staffers. Other Indec employees have told similar stories.
Source ARGENTINA SALVAJIZADA 3rd February 2011
Statistics of politics and politics of statistics
MS Graciela Bevacqua former head of CPI Argentina
Has Mr Moreno violated Principle 1. Official statistics provide an indispensable
element in the information system of a democratic society, serving the
Government, the economy and the public with data about the economic,
demographic, social and environmental situation. To this end, official statistics
that meet the test of practical utility are to be compiled and made available on
an impartial basis by official statistical agencies to honor citizens' entitlement
to public information.
Has Mr Moreno violated Principle 2. To retain trust in official statistics, the
statistical agencies need to decide according to strictly professional
considerations, including scientific principles and professional ethics, on the
methods and procedures for the collection, processing, storage and
presentation of statistical data.
What is the IMF going to do and what will it declare as a finding?
Statistics of politics and politics of statistics
Mr Walter Radermacher DG Eurostat
Greece is the only euro country that lied about using these complex swap
contracts after Eurostat told countries to report them in 2008, Radermacher
said.
Radermacher vows new toughness when officials from his staff head to
Greece this month to come up with a “solid estimate” of the total value of
debt hidden by the opaque contracts. “This is a new era,” he said.
What pathways is Radermacher signalling in terms of a strong and
autonomous statistics system? Where does he draw power, legitimacy and
confidence from for such a bold statement? Will IMF in the case of
Argentina learn something from Radermarcher
Principle 3. To facilitate a correct interpretation of the data, the statistical
agencies are to present information according to scientific standards on the
sources, methods and procedures of the statistics.
8 september 2010
Justice must not only be done but must
be seen to be done
• Are the fundamental principles sufficient for
“justice to be done?”
• Are the fundamental principles sufficient to
comply with “justice must be seen to be done?”
• Do the fundamental principles protect peer
damage?
• Do and should the fundamental principles
protect peers from external forces?
• What institutional arrangements and practices
provide for successful implementation of the
fundamental principles?
Justice must not only be done but must be seen to be done
By
Positioning A Statistics System which is a daunting task
The NSS goal is to produce high quality statistical information for planning etc.
Justice must not only be done but must be seen to be done
by
Positioning A Statistics System which is a daunting task
The NSS goal is to produce high quality statistical information for planning etc
Positioning A Statistics System is a daunting task
Be ready to stand the adversity that you may encounter and
guide to choose an alternative in confusing situations
Positioning A Statistics System is a daunting task
Its governance is the device that guides the System towards its Goal
Justice must not only be done but must be seen to be done
by
Positioning A Statistics System which is a daunting task
Apply norms and tools that can dramatically improve the operation of the NSS
Positioning A Statistics System is a daunting task
Justice must not only be done but must be seen to be done
by
Positioning A Statistics System is a daunting task
Demanding accountability through independent periodic reviews
Positioning A Statistics System globally is a daunting task
We can learn from Eurostat chief Radermacher who vows new toughness to come
up with a “solid estimate” “This is a new era,”
Positioning and defending the Statistics System
is the number one responsibility of the Chief Statistician for which
Graciela of Argentina and Munir of Canada paid the price
The fundamental principles of official statistics Principle 2 has been failed
Framework for implementing the fundamental
principles
A purpose:
Production of relevant high quality statistical information
A Governance scheme:
A predictable production scheme that guides the System towards its Goal
An ethos to guide the system.
Engrained system appropriateness to enhance understanding and manage
change. A culture so to say
Tools to enhance operation
An appropriate application of norms that can dramatically improve the
operation of the NSS
Technical Autonomy
The NSS must be autonomous to conduct its statistical activities
Accountability
The NSS must be accountable to the stakeholders
Justice must not only be done but must
be seen to be done
• Are the fundamental principles sufficient for
“justice to be done?”
• Are the fundamental principles sufficient to
comply with “justice must be seen to be done?”
• Do the fundamental principles protect peer
damage?
• Do and should the fundamental principles
protect peers from external forces?
• What institutional arrangements and practices
provide for successful implementation of the
fundamental principles?
Have the fundamental principles
served? They are
• A principal frame for implementing politics of statistics
• A frame for judgment. For instance the case of Canada
and Argentina represent gross non-compliance
• A guide for practice and legislation where these can be
monitored, reviewed and revised in line with a desirable
symbiotic development
• An antenna for informing desirable changes. Globally
and at UNSC level the principles suggest the need for an
institutional review on the location and hierarchical
positioning of the UNSD and the force of UNSC
• A guage on practice. Eurostat demonstrate how the
principles can be translated in practice
• A platform for how cases may be benchmarked and used
to reinforce and strengthen practice and legislation
Critical Success factors for implementation:
The chief statistician
• Intellectual competence in the
subject matter and outputs of
the statistics system.
• Systems thinking competence
including technological and
information technology
knowledge
• Logistics leadership and
management competence
• Administrative competence
• Political savvy without being
political is a must
• To lead the agency
authoratatively in the scientific
discourse
• Statistics are pervasive and far
reaching and require a
pervasive architecture
including IT
• Pervasive systems have
immense logistical implications
• Statistics are about sound
management and relating to
evidence
• Statistics excite and inspire the
political mind and knowing the
audience is essential
Chief-Statisticians are at the forefront of information and their key role is to
Know, understand and communicate the fruit of their toil 24hours 7days a week