AHS

AND

L

ATER

-L

IFE

M

OBILITY

Miranda Dietz & Larry A. Rosenthal Goldman School of Public Policy UC-Berkeley

M OTIVATION : A GING -I N -P LACE AND R EAL E STATE M ARKETS • • • Boomers Are Different! No Sun City for Us Hunch: Census Data Too Shallow To Capture Genuine Mobility Trends Exploration: Can AHS Longitudinal Structure For Housing Units Shed More Light?

S TRATEGY F OR C APTURING M OBILITY I N AHS • • • • • • Ask All Householders in 2009: “When Did You Move In To This Place?” Believe Their Answer! (Trust Recollection By Year) More Important: Trust Recollection By Month Problem: Don’t Know How Long Current Respondent Will Stay In The Future (“Right Censoring”) Solution: Use Prior Biannual AHS Draws, By Unit, To Observe Completed Stays (“Backtracking”) Concern: We Might Be Undersampling Short Stays (E.g., Arrivals-Departures Between Surveys)

“B ACKTRACKING ” Year

Sort 2009 Survey By Move-In Date

Month

Match Year-Arrived Groups w/ Prior AHS Surveys By AHS Control Number [Unit] (To Compare Date Of Earlier Survey And Month Arrived) Sort Prior-Year HHs To Determine Whether Same As 09HH

If Arrived Pre-Survey, Add To Sample

 AHSYEAR - (YEAR.ARRIVED) = “DURATION”

AHS M OBILITY : D IFFERENT S TORY

A VERAGE D URATIONS (HH ERS O VER 40)

D ISPERSION OF D URATION (HH ERS O VER 40)

M EDIAN D URATIONS BY G ENERATION (M OVERS AND N ON -M OVERS )

C OMPARING M OVERS AND “S TAYERS ”

M OBILITY O VER A GE 40

E XAMPLE OF L IFE T ABLE (D URATION OF S TAY )

C LOSING T HOUGHTS • • • Mobility vs. “Aging-In-Place”: AHS Provides A Unique Glimpse Causes For Later-Life Duration Choice: More Complicated – Boomers Constrained By Reduced Savings, The Great Recession, And The Changing Nature of Work Additional Research: – Generation-Mixing (“Hosting”) – Retirement vs. Continuing Labor-Market Attachment

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HANK YOU

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