Transcript renewable energy
GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK
ESKOM CSP AND SOLAR AUGMENTATION CONFERENCE, JOHANNESBURG
DEREK CAMPBELL 26 AUGUST 2013 / / / /
1
THE DEFINITIVE SOURCE OF INSIGHT, DATA AND NEWS ON THE TRANSFORMATION OF THE ENERGY SECTOR San Francisco London New York Washington Sao Paulo Zurich Beijing Tokyo New Delhi Singapore Hong Kong Sydney Cape Town / / / / GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013
2
COVERAGE: UNIQUE BREADTH.... SECTORS Wind RENEWABLE ENERGY Solar Biofuels, Biomass & Waste to Energy ENERGY-SMART TECHNOLOGIES Smart Grid & Demand Response, Power Storage, Advanced Transportation, Energy Efficiency CCS Geothermal WATER MARKETS CARBON MARKETS EU ETS Australia Global / Kyoto North America RENEWABLE ENERGY CERTIFICATES EU RECs North America RECs Asian RECs POWER GAS / / / / GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013
3
CONTENTS
1. CURRENT STATE OF THE MARKET 2. POTENTIAL TO REDUCE LCOE 3. IMPLICATIONS OF NATURAL GAS ON STEG 4. 2014 AND BEYOND
/ / / / GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013
4
NEW BUILD ASSET FINANCE OF STEG PROJECTS BY REGION, 2005-2012 ($BN)
25,000 20,000 19.3
15,000 10,000 5,000 0 5.6
4.5
1.2
1.9
0.04
2005 2006 2007 2.4
2008 2009 2010 5.3
2011 2012
/ / / / GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013
ASOC AMER EMEA Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 5
GLOBAL SOLAR THERMAL CAPACITY, 1995-2013 (MW) / / / / GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 6
ABANDONED STEG PROJECTS (MW)
2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 2,135 1,654 1,633 500 0 50 2007 255 2008 729 934 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
/ / / / GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 7
WHY THE SLOWDOWN?
PV POLICY SUPPORT FINANCE
Rapid decline of PV costs makes STEG a less attractive option for generating clean energy from large sunny areas Partly in consequence of runaway PV build (and also the Spanish debt crisis), government support has been removed or switched to PV. PV wins solar tenders.
Initial capital expenditure is high and there have been bankruptcies as companies struggle with liquidity
WATER
Increasing concern over availability of water resources for cooling and washing
/ / / / GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013
8
CONTENTS
1. CURRENT STATE OF THE MARKET 2. POTENTIAL TO REDUCE LCOE 3. IMPLICATIONS OF NATURAL GAS ON STEG 4. 2014 AND BEYOND
/ / / / GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013
9
SOLAR THERMAL LCOE’S ($/MWH) / / / / GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 10
TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION CURRENT COST
• Cost of components (eg mirrors, steam turbines) is extremely high • Each plant is designed differently, so skilled engineers are required and customisation difficult
REDUCING COSTS
• Reducing component costs through optimising design to use less material, or lower cost material, or to improve efficiency • Achieve economies of scale through increasing the plant size • Add storage, or hybridise STEG with fossil fuel, to increase utilisation of the turbine. This can also help STEG power output match power demand – something PV or wind cannot do
/ / / / GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 11
CONTENTS
1. CURRENT STATE OF THE MARKET 2. POTENTIAL TO REDUCE LCOE 3. IMPLICATIONS OF NATURAL GAS ON STEG 4. 2014 AND BEYOND
/ / / / GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013
12
GAS EFFECTS ON STEG
• • • Gas reserves risen by 34% between 2000-2012 Large pipeline of LNG terminals and exploration Cheaper gas means cheaper electricity • Gas sets the price of electricity and reduces peak hour prices for STEG 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 TCM 200 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Consumption Production Reserves BCM 4,000 3,600 3,200 2,800 2,400 2,000 1,600 1,200 800 400 0 Source: B.P, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
/ / / / GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013
13
LCOE IN 2013 ($/MWH)
Marine - wave Marine - tidal STEG - LFR STEG - tower & heliostat STEG - parabolic trough + storage Fuel cells Wind - offshore STEG - parabolic trough STEG - tower & heliostat … PV - thin film PV - c-Si tracking Biomass - gasification PV - c-Si Geothermal - binary plant Wind - onshore Municipal solid waste Biomass - incineration Geothermal - flash plant Landfill gas Biomass - anaerobic digestion Large hydro Small hydro Nuclear CHP Natural gas CCGT Coal fired 0 50 Global LCOE range 100 150 200 Regional scenarios 250 300 Q1 2013 central 350 400 Q2 2013 central 450 500 1059 861 531
/ / / / GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 14
CONTENTS
1. CURRENT STATE OF THE MARKET 2. POTENTIAL TO REDUCE LCOE 3. IMPLICATIONS OF NATURAL GAS ON STEG 4. 2014 AND BEYOND
/ / / / GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013
15
2014 AND BEYOND
• There will be some markets where the advantages of STEG over PV are valued – for example, weak power grids, or countries with a strong evening electricity demand peak • Several countries (Australia, Morocco, India) are also offering tenders for one or two large STEG projects • Saudi Arabian market 2.1GW in 2 rounds of bidding, by 2032 25GW (although BNEF believes the long term target may be shifted towards PV) • Cost reductions and technology improvements continue to be made by companies like BrightSource and Abengoa, which are building plants and gaining the experience to make the technology better
/ / / / GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013
16
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. No portion of this document may be photocopied, reproduced, scanned into an electronic system or transmitted, forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such a guarantee. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features, and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg L.P. or any of their affiliates ("Bloomberg"). The opinions presented are subject to change without notice. Bloomberg accepts no responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments, or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an investment strategy or whether or not to "buy," "sell" or "hold" an investment.
/ / / / GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013
17
PRESENTATION TITLE
DEREK CAMPBELL, [email protected]
MARKETS Renewable Energy Carbon Markets Energy Smart Technologies Renewable Energy Certificates Carbon Capture & Storage Power Water Nuclear SERVICES Insight:
research, analysis & forecasting
Industry Intelligence
: data & analytics
News & Briefing:
daily, weekly & monthly
Applied Research:
custom research & data mining
Knowledge Services:
Summit, Leadership Forums, Executive Briefings & workshops Subscription-based news, data and analysis to support your decisions in clean energy, power and water and the carbon markets [email protected]