Transcript The Future of Online Learning and a Look at Emerging Technologies Curt Bonk, Ph.D. Indiana University CourseShare.com http://php.indiana.edu/~cjbonk [email protected].

The Future of Online
Learning and a Look at
Emerging Technologies
Curt Bonk, Ph.D.
Indiana University
CourseShare.com
http://php.indiana.edu/~cjbonk
[email protected]
The future of e-learning is learner-centric
(Adler & Rae, Jan., 2002, e-learning mag)
• Imagine that in the future you will have
your own personalized learning
environment that reflects your individual
style and learning needs, and is instantly
available. Not only will it be your one
point of learning entry for everything you
need to learn, but it will continue to learn
as you learn and modify its behavior
based on interacting with you over time.
Welcome to your
future Internet,
Alan Boyle, MSNBC,
March 17, 2002
• Have you ever checked your e-mail over a
high-speed Internet connection, while
waiting at a bus stop?
• Have you ever chatted with your pals on
the Net, using high-definition television?
• How about hooking your car up to the
Internet so that someone knows where
you are at all times?
Future of E-Learning Survey
• Instructor-Led #1 in next 24 months,
Internet/Intranet #2, Multimedia #3
• Most use Web as supplement to instructor-led
• All Technology:
–
–
–
–
–
–
1. Knowledge management tools
2. Wireless Technology,
3. Reusable Learning Objects,
4. Peer-to-Peer Collaboration,
5. Mentoring,
6. Language Support
• Want White Papers on Course Design/Dev.
Skills
Your Appropriate
Organization
will Teach
Using
E-Learning
Most
Training
Methods
for
Your
E-Learning
Area
of
Most
Growth
in
Next a24
Percent
of
Organizations
that
Have
of
Online
Training
in
AspectPercent
of
E-Learning
that
Your
Organization
Technologies
ininthe
Next
Months
Organization
Next
24 24
Months
Months
Strategic
Plan
for
E-Learning
Organization
in 24
will
Focus on
in Next
24Months
Months
None of These
Number of Respondents
None/Other
None/Other
5%
10
Evaluation of ESync Instructor-Led
Computer
Systems
5%
Learning
Sales/Marketing
Personal Online Coaching
E-Learning
8
15%
Personal
Development
Problem-Based Learning
Technology
Customer Product Testing
No
Async Instructor-Led
30%
6
Communication
Executive EdOther
45%
Mentoring
Customer Service
Team-Based/Peer
Collab
Technical
4
Self-Paced
Job-Related
SkillsLearning
Dev
2
Instructor-Led
Computer Applications
Delivery of
0
E-Learning
Content
45%
Yes
Creation of
55%
Content
55%
Content
0 E-Learning 5 5
10
10
25%
Services
Number
Respondents
0-20
21-40
41-60
61-80
20%
Number
of of
Respondents
0
15
15
81-100
Find a Winning Blend
(Andy Snidor, March 2002, e-learning Magazine)
“…there is no real vendor or approach that
provides the complete solution…Finding
the ideal blend of technology and nontechnology delivery components and
matching those with appropriate content
and structure is not a very complex
process if the goals are clear.”
To understand future,
must know technologies
of today!
Today: Six Categories of ELearning Vendors Today
(Clark Aldrich, 2001, Global Learning 2008)
1. LMS Portals: infrastructure
2. LCMS: tools for content library
3. Virtual Classrooms: synchronous
instructor (and asynchronous)
4. Off-the-shelf: bus & IT courses
5. Custom Content: build courses
6. Integrators: solutions (Eduprise)
1. LMS Management Technologies
(Karrer, 2001, Online Learning Conference)
•
•
•
1.
2.
Choices: Saba, Docent, Plateau, Click2Learn,
Sun.
Content: Off the Shelf LMS, Custom LMS,
SCORM compatible
Report Recommendations:
Hall, B. (2000a). Learning management systems: How
to choose the right system for your organization.
Sunnyvale, CA: Brandon-Hall.com.
Hall, B. (2000b). Live e-learning: How to choose a
system for your organization. Sunnyvale, CA:
Brandon-Hall.com.
2. LCMS Management
Technologies
(Karrer, 2001, Online Learning Conference)
• LCMS: WBT Systems, Global
Knowledge, KnowledgeXtensions, etc.
• Learning objects (PowerPoint slides,
video clips, illustrations, quiz questions,
course modules): Organize and deliver
them in infinite ways
3. Synchronous Instructor-Led
Technologies
(Karrer, 2001, Online Learning Conference)
• Virtual Classroom: NetMeeting,
Placeware, Centra, HorizonLive, WebEx
• Web-Casts, Whiteboards, Chats, Live
Surveys, Polls, Reports, Web Browsing,
File Transfer, Application Sharing,
Archives, Break-Out Rooms
Asynchronous Instructor-Led
Technologies
• Sitescape Forum, FirstClass, Blackboard
4. E-Learning Content











Capella
Click 2 Learn
Colleges/Universities
Digital Think
Docent, Inc.
Eduprise
Element K
eMind.com
eSocrates
ExecuTrain
Jones International
University
 KnowledgeNet
 Knowledge Planet
 Mentergy--includes
LearnLinc products
 Microsoft Training and
Service
 Netg
 Prime Learning
 Saba
 Smart Force
 ThinQ (i.e., Trainingnet)
 TrainSeek
 Vcampus
 Viviance New Education
 Walden Univ./Institute
How bad is the content?
Timeout for a break from
our sponsors…
The Future
Note: any predictions are bound to
be too conservative!!!
14 E-Learning Technologies of
Future?
1. Human Resource
Portals/Business
Development Resources
2. Communities of
Practice
3. Electronic Books
4. Instructor/Trainer
Portals
5. Knowledge
Management
6. Intelligent Agents
7. Online Language
Support
8. Online Mentoring
9. Online Simulations
10. Peer-to-Peer
Collaboration
11. Reusable Knowledge
Objects
12. Virtual Worlds/Virtual
Reality/AI
13. Wearable Computing
14. Wireless Technology
15. Assistive Technologies
1. Human Resource Portals/Business
Development Resources
• Dial a job
• Job matching
• Resume sharing
• Contract workers
=============
• E-Learning Courses
• E-Learning Instructors
• Secure New Business
But What About RPF Matching Sites?
2. Communities of
Practice
• Awareness of who is in the space
– Roster of who belongs
– Roster of who is currently viewing materials;
• Customization of the space for the group
– a customized identifying banner
• Ability to interact in multiple synchronous
and asynchronous ways.
• Place for a community to identify who they
are
– charter, principles, membership, goals, etc.
Community Space at Eli Lilly
“The space is continuing to evolve, but the
intention is to create a place that feels like
you are with other people
…CommunitySpace works best when we
have spent time building a community
environment as opposed to using the
technology in isolation. Building of
relationships is critical to community
success and we have found this difficult
to do on-line alone.”
Expert Chat: Java Programmers
3. Electronic Books
4. Instructor/Trainer Portals
5. Intelligent Agents/AI
The future of e-learning is
learner-centric
(Adler & Rae, Jan., 2002, e-learning mag)
“You could also choose to have an intelligent,
interactive mentor who pops up anytime you
choose when you need a little performance support.
For example, you may be writing a technical brief
when you realize you need more in-depth
information on the topic. You could then click on a
mentor icon on your desktop to bring up the
intelligent mentor. The mentor would gather the
learning objects necessary and deliver them to the
environment, which would assemble them for an
immediate learning experience.”
6. Knowledge Management
7. Online Language Support
(pronunciation, communication, vocabulary, grammar, etc.)
Typical Features (e.g., Englishtown
(millions of users from over 100 countries)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Online Conversation Classes
Experienced Teachers (certified ESL)
Expert Mentors
Peer-to-Peer Conversation
Private Conversation Classes
Placement Tests
Personalized Feedback
University Certification
Self-Paced Lessons
8. Online Mentoring
Expert mentors novice
from remote location
Carnegie Mellon Univ.
Peer Questions & Team Meeting
Adventure
Learning
Purpose: engage in adventurous
study of the global environment.
(e.g., Telepresence or virtual fieldtrips,
ask an expert forums, cross-classroom
collaboration, debate forums,
MayaQuest)
A web’s that’s out of this world
Alan Boyle, MSNBC,
Nov. 8, 1999
• NASA and network gurus are working together
to extend the Internet to other worlds in the
next few years. But there are some limits that
not even the World Wide Web can route
around, such as the speed of light. So the
builders of the Interplanetary Internet are
going back to the basics, retooling protocols for
future communications with Mars and beyond.
The future of e-learning is
learner-centric
(Adler & Rae, Jan., 2002, e-learning mag)
“At the beginning of the learning module, you can
decide whether you wish to have your learning
tracked and reported to you or to your personnel
file in the company's HR system. Summary
information about the course you complete would
be stored in your personalized learning
environment for immediate retrieval whenever you
need it for refresher learning…The digital mentor
adapts and "learns" how you are learning and asks
questions that branch you to additional learning if
you choose it.”
9. Online Simulations (SimuLearn)
SimuLearn’s Virtual Leader
Components
1. Power: explores the effects of informal (i.e.,
expertise and recognized alliances) and formal
(e.g., title) power
2. Ideas: explores effective strategies for
generating ideas
3. Tension: looking at how tension affects
performance
• Once the 3 ingredients are aligned and
balanced, the leaders commit to a course of
action. (fosters creativity, role play, DM’ing)
Indeliq
Ninth House: Management Scenarios
10. Peer-to-Peer Collaboration
(Group-enabled Project Management)
Possibilities:
1. Data Sharing
(www.napster.com)
2. Resource Sharing
(www.intel.com/cure/overv
iew.htm)
3. Workgroup Collaboration
(www.groove.net)
Grove creates a shared space to explain
problems, receive assignments, post course
updates, hold group meetings, write and edit
papers, and teach students research methods.
Next Generation P2P Collaboration
eWeek, Groove 2.0 Professional Edition,
Jason Brooks, May 20, 2002
• Groove now integrates somewhat with certain
elements of Microsoft Corp.'s Office. For
example, we created a new shared space from a
message within Outlook, from which we could
launch a discussion of the message. We could
collaboratively review and edit a Word document
that had been attached to the message. While
working with that Word document, one user at a
time could make edits, taking control via a
Groove-specific tool bar. Groove also opened a
chat window in which reviewers could discuss
their edits…collaborators to collect and view data
in their shared spaces.
Some go so far as to say…
11. Reusable Knowledge
Objects
Percent of Respondents
Figure27.
28.Organizational
Organizational Interest
in Knowledge
Figure
Ownership
of Online
Objects
Courses
and Materials
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Strongly
Agree
25%
Strongly
Disagree
3%
Disagree
Agree/Totally Agree
11%
Unsure
Unsure
17%
Disagree/Strongly
Disagree
Clear Guidelines
Property of
Agree
Organization
44%
“Appealing to the attention-deficit
society…online learning will only be
taken up by employees as part of
continuous professional development
if it is engaging, highly relevant and
available in small doses.…A fiveminute “learning object” can be
digested in between phone calls or
meetings.”
Sarah Murray, Dec 2001, Financial Times.com;
interview with Terry Nulty, President, Element K
What is a Learning Object?
• “Learning Objects are small or large
resources that can be used to provide a
learning experience. These assets can be
lessons, video clips, images, or even
people. The Learning Objects can
represent tiny "chunks" of knowledge, or
they can be whole courses.”
Claude Ostyn, Click2Learn
Displaying Learning Objects
Stephen Downes, New Tools, New Media
“Consider the impact of a resource like
Martindale’s Health Science Guide, a
resource center listing 60,000 teaching
files and 129,000 medical cases. Such a
resource if made available to medical
schools around the world, would greatly
facilitate the creation of courses in
medicine….” (as well as sustainable
revenue for the center)
Sharable Content Object
Reference Model
A software model that defines the interrelationship
of course components, data models, and protocols
such that content “objects” are sharable across
systems that conform with the same model.
(Bob Wisher, 2001)
“Publishers”
Software Developers
Book Publishers
Hollywood Producers
Newspapers
On-Line Services
Technology
ISDN
MPEG/DVI
Photo CD
HDTV
QuickTime
OS/2
Windows
Distribution
USERS
Cable Companies
Broadcasters
Telephone Cos.
Computer Nets
Retail Stores
A Model for Standards Evolution
AICC
IMS
ARIANDNE
R&D
Concepts
Spec
Spec
Consortia
Spec
Consortia
Spec
Consortia
Consortia
Technical
Specifications
ADL
ALIC
Labs
Labs
Testbeds
Labs,
Testbeds
Markets
Testbeds,
Markets
Markets
IEEE
Standards
Standards
Bodies
Bodies
Reference Models Accredited
“Applications
Standards
Profiles”
ISO
Approved
Standards
ADL Strategy (Bob Wisher, 2001)

Use network-based technologies

Promote large-scale cooperation to satisfy common needs

Create platform-independent, reusable content

Develop common specifications for interoperability /reuse

Enhance performance with emerging and next-generation
technologies

Provide incentives for organizational and cultural change
ADL Functional Requirements
(Bob Wisher, 2001)
Accessible: access instructional components from one location
and deliver them to many other locations
Interoperable: use instructional components developed in one
location with a different platform in another location
Reusable: incorporate instructional components into multiple
applications
Durable: operate instructional components when base
technology changes, without redesign or recoding
Affordable: increase learning effectiveness significantly while
reducing time and costs
Standards Make Things Work
• Railroad tracks
• Lightbulbs
• Power outlets
• Beer bottle caps
• Phone lines
• The Internet
Standards for
interchangeable parts
and data…
…we take them for granted
Content Areas
• Medical / Allied health, especially EMT and
clinical
• Business, especially supply management,
acquisition, etc.
• IT, especially security
• K-12 and teacher education
• Nanotechnology (bioengineering, DNA, etc.)
• Perhaps naval law or naval aeronautical
engineering
• Terrorism
Judy Brown, 2001
12. Virtual Worlds/Virtual Reality
Avatars--representations
of people
Objects--representations of objects
Maps--the landscape which can be explored
Bots--artificial intelligence
Possibilities for Corporate
Training
• Virtual seminars and presentations,
with distant colleagues interacting
within a virtual conference hall
• Demonstration of new building
designs that people can explore,
discuss and modify
• Demonstrations of processes or
models that are difficult to
understand with static
graphs/charts
13. Wearable Computing
Keyglove
Build it yourself
Contacts on fingers allow
to type by touching
fingers
“chorded” keyboard
Mouse on back
Next version wireless to
control up to 6 devices
IBM VisionPad
IBM Wearable ThinkPad
Created as a small laptop
Applications will determine
how close it meets our model
14. Wireless Technology
Wireless Training
“The best kind of Performance
Support keeps employees knowledge
“fresh” and always within reach.
Wireless technology makes that
possible in ways that have never
been possible before, and an area
which presents completely new
training and performance support
options for companies.”
15. Assistive Technologies
(includes disability compliance software codings)
Close your eyes and imagine what is like to
be visually impaired and reliant on the Web!
(http://www.rit.edu/%7Eeasi/)
So What Happens to
Instructors and
Students in the
Future???
“We are evolving out of the era of the
Lone Rangers…faculty members can
choose to be involved in the design,
development, content expertise, delivery,
or distribution of course…” (Richard T.
Hezel)
Sarah Carr, (Dec 15, 2000, A47), A Day in the Life of a New Type of
Professor, The Chronicle of Higher Education
Faculty Member in 2020
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Track 1: Technical Specialist
Track 2: Personal Guide
Track 3: Online Facilitator
Track 4: Course Developer
Track 5: Course or Program Manager
Track 6: Work for Hire Online Lecturer
Track 7: High School Teacher
Track 8: Unemployed
Track 1: Technical Specialist
• Help critique technical aspects of media
and materials built into online courses.
Here one would be part of a course
development team or instructional design
unit. Freelance learning object evaluator.
Here one would likely operate alone or as
part of a consulting company.
Track 2: Personal Guide
• Provide program or course guidance to
students on demand or preplanned.
Becomes more of a generalist across
university offerings. For example, one
might help students see how different
learning objects or modules fit together
into a degree.
Track 3: Online Facilitator
• Offers timely and informed support to
students struggling to complete an online
course or inserting questions and
nudging development of students who are
successfully completing different
modules. This is the most similar to
college teaching positions today.
Track 4: Course Developer
• Help develop specific courses or topic
areas for one or more universities. In
many institutions, this will move beyond
a course royalty system to a paid position.
Track 5: Course or Program
Manager
• Supervisor or manager of an entire new
program or courses, most often leading to
certificates or master’s degrees. Similar
in stature to a development head or
chairperson.
Track 6: Work for Hire Online
Lecturer
• Is a freelance instructor for one course or
a range of course. May work on just one
campus or on a range of campuses
around the world. While this will be
highly popular and rejuvenate careers,
institutional policies are yet to be sorted
out.
Track 7: High School Teacher
• As universities begin to offer secondary
degrees, some college faculty with online
teaching experience and teaching degrees
will find positions in those classes. Some
may view such positions as being
demoted to the minor leagues.
Track 8: Unemployed
• If one does not find a niche in one
or more of the above tracks or
roles, he or she will likely be
unemployed or highly unsuccessful.
Student Differences in 2020
• Live Longer
• More Educated
– Multiple Degrees
– Accustomed to Multiple Learning Formats
– Design own programs and courses
•
•
•
•
Specialists AND Generalists
Courses/Degrees for unknown occupations
Expect to Take Courses Where Live
Cyber-students (various digital aids attached to appendages)
Possible Scenarios in Year 2020
•
•
•
•
•
•
Virtual U’s and Traditional U’s Coexist
Traditional Univ’s buy stake in Virtual U’s
Traditional Univ’s form Consortia
Some Trad U’s Move Ahead, Some Don’t
Other Technology arise well beyond Web
Large Virtual U’s Buy Competing
Traditional U’s and shut them down
What Uses for Old Institutions of Higher
Learning???
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Museums
Historical Monuments
Bomb Shelters
Resorts and Apartment Complexes
Nostalgic Retirement Homes
Green Space
Prisons
Some Final Advice…
Or Maybe Some Questions???