Transcript HOW WELL IS ARIZONA PREPARING ALL STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE, CAREERS AND LIFE September 2012

HOW WELL IS
ARIZONA PREPARING ALL
STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE,
CAREERS AND LIFE
September 2012
Why College- and Career-Ready
Expectations for All?
The Economic Imperative: A high school diploma is no longer enough; now,
nearly every good job requires some education beyond high school and all
students need to be academically prepared to compete for good jobs in the
global economy.
The Equity Imperative: Far too many students drop out or graduate from high
school unprepared for success. Students in minority groups drop out and fail to
attain postsecondary credentials at much higher rates than their counterparts.
The Expectations Imperative: The bar has been set too low for too long,
keeping students from reaching their full potential, closing doors and limiting
their post-high school options and opportunities.
What Does it Mean to be College- and Career-Ready? To be college- and
career-ready, high school graduates must have studied a rigorous and broad
curriculum anchored in the demands of postsecondary and business that is
grounded in the core academic disciplines, but also consisting of other subjects
that are part of a well-rounded education.
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THE ECONOMIC IMPERATIVE:
A HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA IS NO
LONGER ENOUGH FOR SUCCESS
The changing economy is accelerating the
skills mismatch, as careers increasingly require
some education/training beyond high school,
and more developed knowledge and skills
Why College and Career Readiness Is
Imperative for Our Economic Future
Employer Expectations: Employers increasingly need their employees to use a
broader set of skills than have been required in the past to meet the increasingly
complex demand coming from the modernized workplace.
Skills Mismatch: While fifty years ago a large proportion of jobs were classified
as unskilled, attainable by young people with high school diplomas or less, today
only one-fifth of jobs are considered unskilled. The demand for higher skilled
workers has increased, while the production of higher skilled workers has
remained flat.
International Advantage: Other nations are surpassing the U.S. in improving
their educational systems to increase achievement, reduce achievement gaps,
and educating themselves as a way to a better economy, while the U.S. remains
stagnant.
Personal Benefits: More education is associated with higher earnings and higher
rates of employment. Educational attainment isn’t just a benefit in the short-term;
more education is correlated with larger projections of lifetime earnings at every
level of the pipeline.
4
Employer Expectations: Education and
Training and Requirements Over Time
Percentage of Workforce by Education Level
2018
40%
2002
40%
32% 33%
1973
32%
30%28%
27% 29%
35%
30%
25%
16%
20%
15%
12%
10%
11% 10%
5%
0%
High School
Dropout
High School
Graduate
Some College /
Associate's
Degree
Bachelor's &
Higher
Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and
Education Requirements Through 2018. Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce.
ww9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf
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Employer Expectations: Increased Demand for
Postsecondary Education and Training
25%
Percent Change in Employment,
by Education or Training Category, 2008-18
19%
20%
18%
18
17%
17%
15%
13%
8%
8%
8%
8%
10%
5%
0%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2010-11 Edition.
http://www.bls.gov/oco/oco2003.htm
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Employer Expectations:
The Rise of Middle-Skill Jobs
High-skill jobs
Occupations in the professional/technical and managerial categories.
Often require four-year degrees and above
Middle-skill jobs
Occupations that include clerical, sales, construction, installation/repair,
production, and transportation/material moving.
Low-skill jobs
Occupations in the service and agricultural categories.
Often require some education and training beyond high school (but
typically less than a bachelor’s degree), including associate’s degrees,
vocational certificates, and significant on-the-job training.
Source: Holzer, Harry J. and Robert I. Lerman (February 2009). The Future of Middle-Skill Jobs.
Brookings Institution.
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Employer Expectations: Employment Shares
by Occupational Skill Level
High Skill
Middle Skill
Low Skill
29%
U.S. (2009)
52%
19%
27%
Arizona (2004)
52%
60%
21%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Source: National Skills Coalition (2010). The Bridge to a New Economy: Worker Training Fills the Gap.
http://www.nationalskillscoalition.org/assets/reports-/the-bridge-to-a-new-economy.pdf ; National Skills Coalition
(2011). State Middle Skill Fact Sheets. http://www.nationalskillscoalition.org/resources/fact-sheets/state-fact-sheets/
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The Skills Mismatch: Demand for Middle-Skill
Workers Outpaces Arizona’s Supply
 In 1950, 60% of jobs were classified as unskilled, attainable by young
people with high school diplomas or less. Today, 20% of jobs are
considered to be unskilled.
 One result: The demand for middle- and high-skilled workers is
outpacing the state’s supply of workers educated and experienced at
that level.
79% of Arizona’s jobs are middle or high skills (jobs that require some
postsecondary education or training).
Yet only 35% of Arizona’s adults have some postsecondary degree
(associate’s or higher).
Sources: Carnevale, Anthony P. and Donna Desrochers (2003). Standards for What? The Economic Roots of K-12 Reform. Education
Testing Services. http://www.learndoearn.org/For-Educators/Standards-for-What.pdf ; Skills to Compete. http://www.skills2compete.org
National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org
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The Skills Mismatch: Jobs Are Going Unfilled
52% of employers reported difficulty
in finding the right talent, up from
14% in 2010.
This is the highest U.S. percentage
reported in ManPower Group’s
annual survey’s six-year history.
Another 30% of companies,
surveyed by McKinsey & Co, said
they had job opening for six months
or more because of lack of
ideal/qualified candidates.
Source: ManPower Group. (2011). 2011 Talent Shortage Survey & McKinsey Global Institute (2011). An Economy that
Works: Job Creation and America’s Future. www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/us_jobs/index.asp & Bureau of Labor
Statistics
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International Advantage: Increased
Competition from Abroad
While the benefits of graduating high school college- and
career-ready and attaining some postsecondary credential
affects each individual student, it also impacts our standing as
a nation in an increasingly competitive global economy and
workforce.
Education attainment and achievement in the U.S. have gone
stagnant at a time when the global economy is demanding
increased education and more complex skills – and other
countries are responding.
U.S. students rank 12th in reading, 13th in science,
and 24th in math on international testing.
Source: OECD, PISA 2009 Database. Statlink – http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932343342
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International Advantage: America’s
International Edge is Slipping in
High School Graduation Rates
Arizona
U.S.
Korea
Poland
Canada
Israel
Germany
Denmark
Ireland
Norway
Netherlands
U.K.
Iceland
0
20
40
% Young Adults (25-34) with HS Diploma+
60
80
100
% Adults (25-64) with HS Diploma+
Source: OECD. Education at a Glance 2011. (All rates are self-reported) http://www.oecdilibrary.org/education/education-at-a-glance-2011_eag-2011-en; National Center for Higher Education
Management Systems, analysis of 2008 and 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org
12
International Advantage: America’s
International Edge is Slipping in Postsecondary
Degree Attainment
0
10
20
% Young Adults (25-34) with College Degree
30
40
50
60
% Adults (25-64) with College Degree
Source: OECD. Education at a Glance 2011. (All rates are self-reported.) http://www.oecdilibrary.org/education/education-at-a-glance-2011_eag-2011-en; National Center for Higher Education
Management Systems, analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org
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International Advantage: America’s
International Edge is Slipping in Postsecondary
Degree Attainment
% of Citizens with Postsecondary Degrees Among OECD Countries, by Age Group (2006)
55-64
45-54
35-44
25-34
ALL (25-64)
1
U.S. (40%)
Canada (44%)
Canada (54%)
Korea (58%)
Canada (49%)
2
Canada (40%)
Japan (43%)
Japan (48%)
Canada (56%)
Japan (43%)
3
N.Z. (34%)
U.S. (40%)
Finland (44%)
Japan (55%)
U.S. (41%)
4
Finland (29%)
N.Z. (38%)
U.S. (43%)
N.Z. (48%)
N.Z. (40%)
5
Australia (28%)
Finland (37%)
Korea (43%)
Norway (46%)
Finland (37%)
6
Norway (28%)
Australia (33%)
N.Z. (40%)
Ireland (45%)
Korea (37%)
7
Switz. (27%)
Denmark (32%)
Norway (38%)
Denmark (43%)
Norway (36%)
8
U.K. (27%)
Norway (32%)
Australia (38%)
Belgium (42%)
Australia (36%)
9
Sweden (26%)
Switz. (31%)
Denmark (37%)
Australia (42%)
Denmark (34%)
10
Neth. (26%)
Neth. (31%)
Ireland (37%)
U.S. (42%)
Ireland (34%)
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Denmark (26%)
Iceland (30%)
Switz. (36%)
Sweden (41%)
Switz. (34%)
12
Japan (26%)
U.K. (30%)
Iceland (36%)
France (41%)
U.K. (33%)
13
Germany (24%)
Belgium (29%)
Belgium (35%)
Neth. (40%)
Belgium (32%)
14
Iceland (24%)
Sweden (28%)
U.K. (33%)
Spain (39%)
Neth. (32%)
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Belgium (22%)
Ireland (27%)
Sweden (33%)
Luxembourg (39%)
Sweden (32%)
AZ (35%)
AZ (33%)
AZ (35%)
45-64: Arizona (36%)
Source: OECD. Education at a Glance 2011. http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/education-ata-glance-2011_eag-2011-en ; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems
analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org
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Personal Benefits: Higher Earnings and
Rates of Employment
While there may be jobs available to high school dropouts
and graduates, they often pay less and offer less security
than jobs held by those with at least some postsecondary
experience.
The link between educational attainment and gainful
employment is clear:
More education is associated with higher
earnings and higher rates of employment.
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Personal Benefits: Higher Earnings and
Rates of Employment
$7,384
20%
$21,502
14%
$31,411
8%
$60,316
5%
Mean Income
Unemployment Rate
Arizona Statistics: Total Unemployment: 10%, Mean Income: $31,884
Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2011). Current Population Survey. Figures are based on the total
persons in the civilian labor force. http://www.census.gov/cps/data/cpstablecreator.html
16
Personal Benefits: Increased Lifetime Earnings
Estimated Average Lifetime Earnings
by Education Level
$5,000,000
$4,000,000
$3,000,000
$2,000,000
$1,000,000
$-
Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through
2018. Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. www9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf
Analysis based on author’s analysis of March 2008 CPS data.
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THE EQUITY IMPERATIVE:
CREATING EQUAL ACCESS AND
PREPARATION FOR ALL
Far too many students, especially those from
disadvantaged backgrounds, drop out or graduate
from high school unprepared for real world
challenges
Achievement Gaps Start Early:
Arizona’s 4th and 8th Grade
Achievement Gaps
% At or Above Proficient on NAEP
4th Grade
Math
(2011)
4th Grade
Reading
(2011)
4th Grade
Science
(2009)
8th Grade
Math
(2011)
8th
Grade
Reading
(2011)
8th Grade
Science
(2011)
All
Students
34%
26%
22%
31%
28%
23%
White
49%
38%
37%
46%
41%
37%
Black
22%
20%
13%
18%
18%
6%
Hispanic
21%
16%
9%
18%
17%
11%
Asian
53%
42%
43%
58%
34%
n/a
American
Indian
14%
8%
9%
12%
15%
11%
Subgroup
Source: National Assessment of Educational Progress. Analysis of data downloaded from
http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/naepdata/
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Achievement Gaps Are About More than
Race: Achievement Gaps Among Other
Disadvantaged Populations
% At or Above Proficient on NAEP
Subgroup
4th
Grade
Math
(2011)
4th
Grade
Reading
(2011)
All Students
34%
26%
22%
31%
28%
23%
Low Income
22%
15%
11%
19%
17%
12%
English
Language
Learners
7%
1%
2%
n/a
n/a
n/a
Students
with
Disabilities
15%
5%
11%
5%
3%
5%
4th Grade 8th Grade 8th Grade 8th Grade
Science
Math
Reading Science
(2009)
(2011)
(2011)
(2011)
Source: National Assessment of Educational Progress. Analysis of data downloaded from
http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/naepdata/
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Achievement Gaps Continue Through High
School: Minority Students Are More at Risk of
Dropping Out
Teens Aged 16-19 Who Are Not in School and Not High
School Graduates by Race, 2010
9%
7%
6%
11%
12%
10%
9%
8%
8%
4%
6%
5%
4%
2%
0%
U.S.
AZ
All
White
Black
Hispanic
Source: Annie E. Casey Foundation. Kids Count Data Center. 2010, Teens ages 16 to 19 who are not in school and are not high
school graduates by race (Percent). http://datacenter.kidscount.org/data/acrossstates/Rankings.aspx
21
Achievement Gaps Continue Through High
School: Graduation Rates
Percent of On-Time High School Graduates, 2009
80%
73%
78%
72%
78%
59% 71%
63%
100%
84%
53%
64%
80%
60%
60%
40%
20%
0%
U.S.
AZ
All
White
Black
Source: Education Week (2012). Graduation in the United States.
http://www.edweek.org/ew/toc/2012/06/07/
Hispanic
Asian
American
Indian
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Achievement Gaps Continue Into
Postsecondary: College Completion
Percent of Students Earning a Postsecondary Degree
80%
66%
59%
56%
47%
52% 41%
47%
47%
60%
39%46%
41%
43%
40%
20%
0%
All
White
Black
Hispanic
Source: NCES. IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey, analyzed by National Center for
Management of Higher Education Systems.
Asian
American
Indian
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THE EXPECTATIONS IMPERATIVE:
WE’RE SETTING THE BAR TOO LOW
We’ve held students to low and inconsistent expectations
for too long. As a result, too few graduates are
successful and achieving college and career
readiness.
Too Many Students Remain Off Track to
Success: Of Every 100 9th Graders in Arizona…
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
100
67
35
21
9th Graders
Graduate
Enroll in
High School College In the
in 4 Years
Fall
Still Enrolled
Sophomore
Year of
College
Source: National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (2008). Student Pipeline - Transition and
Completion Rates from 9th Grade to College. http://www.higheredinfo.org
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Earn a
College
Degree
25
Too Many Students Are Not College and
Career Ready: Students Participating in AP and
Exceeding College and Career Readiness
Percent of all 12th Graders Participating in
Advanced Placement (2011)
35%
30%
30%
18%
17%
25%
20%
15%
10%
10%
5%
0%
U.S.
Arizona
12th Graders who scored a 3+ on an AP Exam in High School
12th Graders who took an AP Exam in High School
Source: College Board (2012). AP Report to the Nation.
http://apreport.collegeboard.org/sites/default/files/downloads/pdfs/AP_Main_Report_Final.pdf
26
Too Many Students Are Not College and
Career Ready: Students Meeting College
Readiness Benchmark
Percentage of ACT-tested graduates who met or
exceeded the College Readiness Benchmark score, 2011
67%
52%
54%
46%
31%
39%
25%
20%
80%
60%
42%
40%
23%
20%
0%
U.S.
AZ
All 4 tests
Science
Math
Reading
English
Note: A benchmark score indicates a 50% chance of obtaining a B
or higher or about a 75% chance of obtaining a C or higher in the
corresponding credit-bearing college courses.
Source: ACT (2012). College Readiness Benchmark Attainment by State.
http://www.act.org/newsroom/data/2012/benchmarks.html
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Enrollment in College Does NOT Equal
College Readiness in Arizona
59% of Arizona’s high school graduates
enrolled in the state’s public colleges require
remediation/learning support.
Source: Complete College America (2011). North Carolina Profile
http://www.completecollege.org/docs/North_Carolina_Feb28.pdf
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Too Many Students Are Not College and
Career Ready: Retention Rates
77%
70%
80%
56%
54%
54%
51%
60%
40%
20%
0%
U.S.
Arizona
Persistence (2Year)
Persistence (4Year)
Completion (4Year)
Source: National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (2008). Retention Rates First-Time College Freshmen Returning Their Second Year ; Graduation Rates.
http://www.higheredinfo.org/
29
Desire for High Expectations: The Majority of
Graduates Would Have Taken Harder Courses
Knowing what you know today about the expectations of college/work …
72%
Would have taken
more challenging
courses in at least
one area
62%
48%
Math
34%
41%
Science
32%
38%
English
29%
Students Who Did Not Go To College
College Students
Source: Peter D. Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies (2005). Rising to the
Challenge: Are High School Graduates Prepared for College and Work? Washington, DC:
Achieve.
30
THE SUPPORT:
STAKEHOLDERS RECOGNIZE THE
NEED FOR ACTION
Research and polling demonstrates that students,
teachers, parents, and the general public are
dissatisfied with the status quo – and want
to do something about it.
The Public on College and Career Readiness
87%
89%
67%
To really get ahead in life,
a person needs more
than just a high school
education.
69%
To really get ahead in life, a
person needs at least some
education beyond high
school, whether that means
university, community
college, technical or
vocational school.
Strongly Agree
Agree
Source: Achieve (2010). Achieving the Possible: What Americans Think the College and CareerReady Agenda. http://www.achieve.org/files/AchievingThePossible-FinalReport.pdf
32
Parents on College and Career Readiness
Percentage of Parents Who Say…
Very Important for child
to get education that
would lead to college
School does a very
good job preparing child
for college
86%
78%
74%
66%
School does a very
good job preparing child
for good job
51%
38%
25%
13%
18%
Low-Performing Schools
Moderate-Performing
Schools
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
High-Performing
Schools
Source: Civic Enterprises (2008). One Dream, Two Realities: Perspectives of Parents on
America's High Schools. http://www.futurereadyproject.org/sites/frp/files/onedream.pdf
33
Students Overwhelmingly Want to Succeed
and Attend College
The vast majority of students intend to go on to college and do
not expect to drop out of high school:
93 percent of middle school students report there is “no chance” they
will drop out in high school.
94 percent of high school students say that they are planning to
continue their education after high school either at a two- or four-year
institution.
95 percent of teenagers report that graduating from high school is
“critical to their future success.”
Source: Middle Schools Poll, Prepared for the National Association of Secondary School Principals and Phi
Delta Kappa, 2007; Civic Enterprises, The Silent Epidemic: Perspectives of High School Dropouts, 2006;
Boys & Girls Clubs of America/Taco Bell Foundation for Teens, Teen Graduation Crisis Survey, 2009.
34
Graduates Consistently Regret Not Having
Worked Harder – Or Having Been More
Challenged – in High School
Percent of 2010 Graduates Who Wish They Had Worked
Harder In High School, by Postsecondary Enrollment
56%
53%
47%
35%
All Graduates
Four-Year College
Two-Year College
No College/Other
Source: College Board (2011). One Year Out: Findings From A National Survey Among Members
Of The High School Graduating Class Of 2010. http://www.collegeboard.org/OneYearOut
35
Employers See the Value of Education –
and the Knowledge and Skills Gaps in Their
Recent Hires
More than three in four business
leaders believe that increasing
postsecondary completion will have
an extremely or very positive impact
on the U.S. economy (79%) and
workforce productivity (76%).
Overall Preparation of New
Workforce Entrants
32%
24%
Executives also recognize
increasing postsecondary
experiences could affect both the
success of their company (75%) and
their company’s ability to hire and
retain employees with the necessary
skills and knowledge (75%).
16%
51%
55%
51%
Deficient
17%
22%
34%
4-year
College
2-Year
College
High
School
Adequate
Excellent
Source: Corporate Voices for Working Families & Civic Enterprises (2011). Across the Great Divide: Perspectives of CEOs and College
Presidents on America’s Higher Education and Skills Gap. www.civicenterprises.net/pdfs/across-the-great-divide.pdf & The Conference Board,
Corporate Voices for Working Families, ASTD, SHRM (2008). The Ill-Prepared U.S. Workforce: Exploring the Challenges of Employer-Provided
36
Educators Support Major Elements of the
College- and Career-Ready Agenda
Percent of Educators Who Agree That
60%
74%
67%
69%
High school is not preparing
students for the workforce
It is important for all students to
have one year or more of
postsecondary education to be
prepared for a career
Clearer standards would make a
strong or very strong impact on
student achievement
Common standards would have
a strong or very strong impact
on student achievement
Sources: MetLife (2010). The MetLife Survey of the American Teacher. www.metlife.com/assets/cao/contributions/foundation/americanteacher/MetLife_Teacher_Survey_2010.pdf & Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Scholastic (2010). Primary Sources: America's
Teachers on America's School. www.scholastic.com/primarysources/pdfs/Scholastic_Gates_noapp_0310.pdf
37
Educators Support Major Elements of the
College- and Career-Ready Agenda
Percentage of Teachers Who Favor/Oppose Implementing the
Common Core and Common Assessments…
80%
72%
64%
70%
60%
50%
40%
28%
30%
20%
7%
8%
10%
33%
Strongly
Strongly
25%
15%
Strongly Strongly
20%
10%
0%
Common Assessments
Common Core State Standards
Don't Know/Not Sure
Oppose Implementation
Support Implementation
Source: Achieve (2012) Growing Awareness, Growing Support: Teacher and Voter Understanding of the Common Core State
Standards & Assessments. http://www.achieve.org/growingawarenessCCSS
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THE SOLUTION:
STATE-LED EFFORTS TO CLOSE THE
EXPECTATIONS GAP
All students deserve a world-class education that
prepares them for college, careers and life.
The College- and Career-Ready Agenda
Align high school standards with the demands of college
and careers.
Require students to take a college- and career-ready
curriculum to earn a high school diploma.
Build college- and career-ready measures into statewide
high school assessment systems.
Develop reporting and accountability systems that
promote college and career readiness.
40
Arizona’s Commitment to Closing the
Expectations Gap to Date
In 2008, Arizona adopted K-12 academic standards in math and
English aligned with college- and career-ready expectations.
In 2007, the Arizona raised their high school graduation
requirements to the college- and career-ready level that will first
affect the Class of 2013.
Arizona adopted the Common Core State Standards in June
2010.
Arizona is a Lead Partner State in the development of the Next
Generation Science Standards.
Arizona is a Governing State in the Partnership for Assessment
of College and Career Readiness (PARCC), a consortium of
states working to develop a common assessment system using
Race to the Top Common Assessment funds.
41
How Arizona Can Continue to
Build on its Momentum…
…Realize the promise of the Common Core State Standards by implementing
them fully and successfully, taking into consideration the related curricular
and policy changes.
…Closely monitor which students are completing the college- and careerready curriculum, and which are personally modifying the curriculum.
…Remain committed to the goals of PARCC and developing and
administering a next-generation, computer-based assessment system
anchored by college- and career-ready tests in high school that will let
students know if they are ready for college-level coursework and measure the
full range of the Common Core State Standards.
…Continue to make progress on the state’s data collection efforts,
particularly around making student data available to relevant stakeholders
and linking K-12 and postsecondary student-level data.
…Re-examine the state’s K-12 accountability system to determine how it can
reward measures of college and career readiness, in alignment with the
state’s standards and course requirements.
HOW WELL IS
ARIZONA PREPARING ALL
STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE,
CAREERS AND LIFE
September 2012