Transcript A Framework for Monitoring Economic Development: Data for understanding structural change Eric Swanson, Senior Adviser Development Data Group The World Bank International Forum on Monitoring National.

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A Framework for Monitoring
Economic Development:
Data for understanding structural change
Eric Swanson, Senior Adviser
Development Data Group
The World Bank
International Forum on Monitoring National Development:
Issues and Challenges
27-29 September 2011, Beijing, China
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Plan for the presentation
• Data from international data sets – availability and
gaps:
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Gross Domestic Product
Valued added by industry
Labor force and employment
Productivity
Trade
Infrastructure
• How do these data help to identify structural
differences and changes over time?
• Questions for discussion?
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Data availability
• Two years ago we conducted an inventory of
data available for classic structural analysis of
economic development based on Chenery and
Syrquin’s “Patterns of Development” (1975) and
other subsequent studies
• Results of the data inventory indicated that even
in the most recent decade, annual data for all
indicators are available for no more than 75% of
the country-year periods.
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Data availability -- results
• Macroeconomic indicators in WDI database
Income group
Low
Lower middle
Upper middle
Median share of country-year combinations with data (%)
2000-08
1990-99
1980-89
1970-79
1960-69
74.0
81.9
70.0
56.7
39.1
71.1
81.3
66.5
52.2
33.5
74.3
78.5
62.6
44.3
27.4
• Two-digit SITC indicators from COMTRADE
Income group
Median share of country-year combinations with data (%)
2000-08
1990-99
1980-89
1970-79
1960-69
Low
47.8
32.8
0.9
0.0
0.0
Lower middle
Upper middle
60.0
73.5
41.3
55.0
1.3
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
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The “Beijing Sample”
• For this presentation we looked at data available
for the 25 low- and middle-income economies
participating in this conference.
Bangladesh Ghana
Malaysia
Nigeria
South Africa
Brazil
India
Mexico
Pakistan
Thailand
Cambodia
Paraguay
Tunisia
China
Indonesia
Mongolia
Iran, Islamic
Rep.
Morocco
Ethiopia
Lao PDR
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Philippines
Russian
Mozambique Federation
Uganda
Vietnam
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GDP – Income accounts
UN National Accounts Official Country Data
Source: UNSD
Nomenclature: SNA93 and SNA68
Latest year available: 2009
Total Sample
25 countries
Units: Current local currency units
SNA68
Methodology
SNA93
Coverage by year in past 10 8 years or less
9 years
years
10 years
80% or less
Number of indicators Covered 81-90%
91-100%
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6 countries
19 countries
7 countries
11 countries
2 countries
23 countries
2 countries
0 countries
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Changing economic structures
INDSTAT4 - Industrial Statistics Database
Source:
Nomenclature:
Latest year available: 2008
Total Sample
Units: Current US dollars
Methodology
UNIDO
3- and 4-digit levels of ISIC,
Revision 3
25 countries
Manufacturing sector at two22 countries
digit SIC Revision 3
8 years or less
Coverage by year in the past 10
9 years
years
10 years
80% or less
Number of Indicators Covered 81-90%
91-100%
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20 countries
2 countries
0 countries
20 countries
2 countries
0 countries
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GDP – Production accounts
UN National Accounts Main Aggregates
Source: UNSD
Nomenclature: ISIC rev. 3
Latest year available: 2009
Total Sample
25 countries
Units: Current local currency units
SNA68
Methodology
SNA93
8 years or less
Coverage by year in the
9 years
past 10 years
10 years
Number of ISIC
Divisions Covered
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5 countries
20 countries
8 countries
12 countries
5 countries
80% or less
81-90%
7 countries
7 countries
91-100%
11 countries
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Sectoral change: Ethiopia
Source: WDI database; unpublished estimates from national sources
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Sectoral change: China
Source: WDI database; unpublished estimates from national sources
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Sectoral change: Mexico
Source: WDI database; unpublished estimates from national sources
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Labor force statistics
LABORSTA Labor Statistics Database
Source: ILO
Nomenclature: ISIC rev. 3
Latest year available: 2008
Total Sample
25 countries
Countries covered:
19 countries
Methodology
ISIC rev. 3
19 countries
6 years or less
11 countries
Coverage by year in the past 9 yrs 7-8 years
Number of ISIC Divisions Covered
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3 countries
9 years
5 countries
80% or less
4 countries
81-90%
9 countries
91-100%
6 countries
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Labor statistics: data availability
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Sectoral distribution of employment
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Global trade statistics
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Trade in commodities
UN COMTRADE (Commodity Trade Statistics Database)
Source
UNSD
Latest year available
2010
Total Sample
25 countries*
Units
Current US dollars
HS 1988/92
Coverage by year
2000-2010
SITC Revision 3
8 years or less
4 countries
8 years or less
3 countries
9-10 years
5 countries
9-10 years
5 countries
11 years
15 countries
11 years
16 countries
Exports
24 countries
24 countries
Imports
24 countries
24 countries
*Data for Lao PDR is available only in SITC Rev. 1 , 1962-1974.
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Infrastructure statistics
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Inventory of infrastructure sources
• Road transport
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Principal international data source: International Road Federation‘s World Road Statistics
Alternative sources : National and/or regional road associations
Coverage (time, countries, road class, length) 1990 onward; 188 countries; total road network, paved
road (% ) and passengers carried, and goods hauled.
• Air transport
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Principal international data source: International Civil Aviation Organization’s Civil Aviation Statistics
Coverage (time, countries, domestic and international traffic) 1970 onward; 148 economies;
registered carrier departures, Passengers carried, and Air freight
• Sea transport
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Principal international data source: Containerisation International’s Containerisation International
Yearbook
Coverage (time, countries, volume of shipments) 2000 onward; 60 economies; Port container traffic
• Railways
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Principal international data source: International Union of Railways’ Railisa database
Coverage (time, countries, length of track, volumes) 1980 onward, 154 countries, Rail lines,
Passengers carried, and Goods hauled
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Infrastructure inventory, continued
• Electricity production and use
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Principal international data source: IEA Energy Statistics and Balances
Alternative sources : United Nation’s Statistics Division’s Energy Statistics Yearbook
Coverage (time, countries, production, distribution, access) 1960 onward; 135 countries; production,
consumption, transmission and distribution losses % of output, and sources of electricity
• Information and telecommunications
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Principal international data source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators database
Coverage (time, countries, bandwidth, internet access, mainline telephones, mobile phones) 1960
onward, 212 countries; fixed lines, mobile cellular subscriptions, International voice traffic, population
covered by mobile cellular network, residential fixed-line tariff, mobile cellular prepaid tariff, fixed
broadband Internet subscribers, and International Internet bandwidth etc.
• Water
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Principal international data source: Joint Monitoring Programme of t WHO, UNICEF, FAO and
AQUASTAT
Coverage (time, countries, freshwater resources, consumption by industry/household access) 1990,
1995, 2000, 2005, 2008. 157-197 countries, Access to an improved water source % of population
• Sanitation
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Principal international data source: Joint Monitoring Programme of WHO and UNICEF
Coverage (time, countries, treatment levels, household access) 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2008. 149194 countries. Access to improved sanitation facilities % of population
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The Growth Identification and
Facilitation Framework (GIFF)
• The GIFF suggests looking at economies with GDP
per capita 100 to 300 percent higher – a gap that
could be bridged by rapid growth over 20 years.
• Among comparator economies look for dynamic
export industries in which the rising economy may
be able to establish a comparative advantage
• GIFF is not intended to be applied in a mechanistic
manner – considerable judgment and highly
disaggregated data are required.
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Growth identification 2009
GDP per capita
2009
ETH
GHA
UGA
MOZ
NGA
LAO
KHM
BGD PAK VNM MNG
IND
IDN
PHL
PRY MAR
IRN CHN THA TUN RUS
Ethiopia
Ghana
68%
Uganda
81%
Mozambique
8%
82%
8%
0%
Nigeria
151%
50%
39%
38%
Lao PDR
153%
51%
40%
39%
1%
Cambodia
155%
52%
41%
40%
2%
1%
Bangladesh
160%
55%
44%
43%
4%
3%
2%
Pakistan
219%
90%
76%
76%
27%
26%
25%
23%
Vietnam
234%
99%
85%
84%
33%
32%
31%
29%
Mongolia
260% 115%
99%
99%
44%
43%
41%
39% 13%
India
274% 123% 107% 106%
49%
48%
47%
44% 17% 12%
Indonesia
432% 217% 194% 193% 112% 110% 109% 105% 67% 59% 47% 42%
Philippines
538% 281% 253% 251% 154% 153% 150% 146% 100% 91% 77% 71% 20%
Paraguay
600% 318% 287% 285% 179% 177% 175% 170% 119% 110% 94% 87% 32% 10%
Morocco
779% 424% 386% 384% 250% 248% 245% 238% 175% 163% 144% 135% 65% 38% 26%
Iran, Islamic Rep.
955% 530% 483% 481% 321% 318% 314% 306% 231% 216% 193% 182% 98% 65% 51% 20%
China
5%
8%
4%
978% 543% 496% 494% 330% 327% 323% 315% 238% 223% 199% 188% 103% 69% 54% 23%
2%
Thailand
1135% 637% 583% 580% 393% 389% 385% 376% 287% 270% 243% 230% 132% 94% 77% 41% 17% 15%
Tunisia
1268% 716% 657% 653% 446% 442% 437% 427% 329% 310% 280% 266% 157% 114% 95% 56% 30% 27% 11%
Russian Federation
1270% 718% 658% 655% 447% 442% 438% 428% 329% 310% 280% 266% 158% 115% 96% 56% 30% 27% 11%
South Africa
1701% 975% 896% 892% 618% 613% 607% 594% 465% 440% 400% 382% 239% 182% 157% 105% 71% 67% 46% 32% 31%
Brazil
2052% 1184% 1090% 1085% 758% 752% 745% 729% 575% 545% 497% 475% 305% 237% 208% 145% 104% 100% 74% 57% 57%
Malaysia
2294% 1329% 1224% 1219% 855% 848% 840% 822% 650% 617% 564% 540% 350% 275% 242% 172% 127% 122% 94% 75% 75%
Mexico
2772% 1614% 1488% 1482% 1046% 1037% 1027% 1006% 800% 760% 697% 668% 440% 350% 310% 227% 172% 167% 133% 110% 110%
Source: World Development Indicators database
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What trade data show us
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Additional data required
• Capital and labor intensity of production
processes
• Raw material sources and prices (domestic and
imported)
• Domestic and foreign demand
• Input-output structure
• Characteristics of existing firms
• All of these data at the finest subdivisions
available, including sub-national units
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Questions for discussion
• How do the demands of the new structural
economics change the priorities and
development plans for economic statistics?
• What new tools and methodologies are needed
to improve the supply and availability of
economic statistics?
• How can we carry forward the ideas from this
conference? Through an expert group? Pilot
country studies? Other mechanisms?
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