Transcript New Census Bureau Data for Entrepreneurship Research Ron S Jarmin US Census Bureau OECD November 19, 2007 This report is released to inform interested parties of.

New Census Bureau Data for
Entrepreneurship Research
Ron S Jarmin
US Census Bureau
OECD
November 19, 2007
This report is released to inform interested parties of ongoing research and to encourage discussion of work in
progress. The views expressed are not necessarily those of the U.S. Census Bureau.
Introduction
• Statistical Agencies, such as the Census
Bureau, produce a wealth of information
about the business population.
• Publicly available data, however, have
shortcomings for entrepreneurship research.
– Insufficient attention to dynamics
– No explicit role for business age
Raw materials for better data mostly
already exist
• Survey and Administrative Micro Data sitting
in most statistical agencies contain much of
what’s needed.
• But need substantial value added before
useful to skilled micro data researchers or
ready for use in public release tabulations.
Census Bureau Micro Data
Infrastructure for Entrepreneurship
Research
• Longitudinal Business Database (LBD)
• Integrated Longitudinal Business
Database (ILBD = LBD + Selfemployed)
• LEHD – Linked employer-employee
data
• Economic Census and Survey data
New public release products being
developed from the LBD
• Business Demography Series (BDS)
– Public release tabulations (follow EIP protocols where
appropriate)
– Developed with support from the Kauffman Foundation
– First tables to be released soon.
• Synthetic LBD
– Releasable micro data based on multiple imputation
– Developed with support from the National Science
Foundation
– Much work needed before release
The BDS
• New Census public use files from LBD/BR
(support from Kauffman Foundation)
–
–
–
–
Coverage 1976-2005
CBP Universe
Establishment level with firm characteristics
Focus on both business and employment
dynamics
• Unique Features
– Long Time Series
– Firm and Establishment Age
– Interactions with Firm and Establishment Size
The BDS – Current State
• Statistics
– Establishment and Firm Births, Deaths and
Continuers
– Job creation
• From births and expansions
– Job destruction
• From deaths and contractions
– Excess Job Reallocation
• By categories
–
–
–
–
Firm Age
Firm Size
Industrial Sector
Geography
The BDS
• Other tables planned (e.g. high growth
firms etc)
• Comparisons and Measurement Issues
– Differences with CBP
– Differences with BED and QCEW
– Measurement of Size (vs. SUSB)
– Treatment of Outliers
Distribution of Firms, Establishments
and Employment by Firm Size
Share of Firms, Establishment and Employment by Firm Size
60.00%
40.00%
Firms
30.00%
Estabs
20.00%
Employment
10.00%
25 249
0
to
50 499
0
10 to 9
99
00
to
2
25
00 4 99
to
49
50
99
00
to
99
99
10
,0
00
+
to
10
0
to
49
50
to
19
20
to
9
10
5
to
4
to
99
0.00%
1
Share
50.00%
Firm Size
Distribution of Firms, Establishments
and Employment by Firm Age
Distributions by Firm Age
Share of Firms
Share of Establishments
5
g.
610
h.
11
-1
5
i.
16
-2
0
j.
21
-2
5
k
l.
.
26
le
ft
ce - 29
ns
or
ed
f.
e.
4
d.
3
c.
2
Share of Employment
b.
1
a.
0
50.00%
45.00%
40.00%
35.00%
30.00%
25.00%
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
Firm Age Class
The BDS: Net Job Growth by Firm Size
and Age
2003
Firm Size
c) 10 to d) 20 to e) 50 to f) 100 to g) 250 to h) 500 to i) 1000 to j) 2500 to k) 5000 to
Firm Age
a) 1 to 4
b) 5 to 9 19
49
99
249
499
999
24
49
99
l) 10000+ All
0
339,847 144,122 118,152 124,100 78,268 89,849 38,351 30,727 29,004
5,425
0
0 997,845
1
623,418 328,112 281,167 253,927 106,001 71,709 36,816 27,588 24,169
3,283 10,539 -32,836 1,733,892
2
-99,061 -8,281
3,770 12,712 11,021 12,107 13,094 10,717
6,465
9,570 D
D
-27,886
3
-81,869 -22,618 -11,008
4,146
6,326
5,306
2,630
322 13,485 -5,427 D
D
-88,708
4
-64,879 -23,636 -14,366 -5,189
1,371
6,313
5,068 -2,083
-32 18,392 D
D
-79,040
5
-53,795 -20,872 -13,467 -2,356
8,085 12,157 10,741
8,100
6,129 21,033
1,725 -14,759 -37,280
6-10
-177,605 -88,900 -56,824 -21,691 12,002 27,347 27,342 -13,570 -17,256 22,306
5,450 28,239 -253,161
11-15
-89,750 -53,406 -37,850 -19,460
6,541 16,745
6,154 11,300 -6,593 14,953 -11,387 -1,772 -164,524
16-20
-60,659 -41,222 -33,195 -19,797
2,161 15,533
4,529 -10,091
824 27,283 -10,181 41,550 -83,267
21-25
-41,729 -26,320 -25,048 -16,381
1,068 17,734
8,734 -1,982 21,246 11,053
8,310 -9,355 -52,670
26
-16,735 -14,592 -19,511 -23,306 -2,594 19,591 16,339
5,139 -15,665
3,954 10,711 -10,318 -46,987
Left Censored
-80,650 -62,418 -58,835 -50,963 -5,237 20,368 -26,119 -30,074 -51,699 -114,536 -129,216 -405,660 -995,036
All
196,536 109,968 132,985 235,743 225,011 314,759 143,677 36,094 10,078 17,289 -100,988 -401,421 919,730
The BDS: Net Job Growth by Firm Size
and Age
2004
Firm Size
c) 10 to d) 20 to e) 50 to f) 100 to g) 250 to h) 500 to i) 1000 to j) 2500 to k) 5000 to
Firm Age
a) 1 to 4
b) 5 to 9 19
49
99
249
499
999
24
49
99
l) 10000+ All
0
365,755 151,612 122,057 130,605 76,169 89,986 19,293 20,546 D
D
0
0 976,023
1
650,399 356,516 304,600 287,442 133,550 91,665 32,276 16,625 12,991
587
3,861 16,306 1,906,817
2
-102,695 -8,155
3,393
8,004
3,511 10,558 11,689 10,249 11,685 D
D
D
-51,762
3
-73,205 -20,989 -8,494
-220
4,159
9,762 -2,559
5,851 -1,133
6,279
-918 20,371 -61,096
4
-60,791 -18,095 -9,353
-740
4,485
6,271
4,224
8,610 D
-3,318 D
D
-68,707
5
-51,906 -19,639 -10,753 -3,730
1,969 -1,139
6,732
9,953
7,085 -1,795
3,886
2,565 -56,773
6-10
-166,726 -78,086 -48,650 -22,987 10,212
9,350
5,975
7,769
8,477 -13,318
1,384
5,871 -280,729
11-15
-90,815 -46,676 -31,367 -22,671
1,570
6,374
6,285 -6,529 17,867
-358 12,058 29,005 -125,258
16-20
-60,317 -34,023 -28,206 -16,512 -6,081 -3,256
5,368 19,978 18,166
4,445 23,821 -32,039 -108,656
21-25
-40,446 -24,775 -21,086 -17,906 -9,856 -2,902
3,354 -6,837
9,965 -13,671 12,957 18,522 -92,681
26-28
-21,614 -17,066 -16,583 -17,510 -8,843
1,202 -6,929
5,725 24,181 10,620 31,926 84,747 69,856
Left Censored
-89,073 -63,873 -58,319 -61,954 -38,384 -10,203 -6,843
252 -25,792 -1,004 -54,951 99,343 -310,800
All
258,568 176,751 197,240 261,822 172,461 207,668 78,865 92,191 86,961
455 36,024 246,895 1,815,898
The BDS: Net Employment by
Firm Size and Age
Net Job Creation: By firm age and size, 2003
800,000
a) 1 to 4
600,000
b) 5 to 9
c) 10 to 19
400,000
d) 20 to 49
e) 50 to 99
200,000
f) 100 to 249
0
g) 250 to 499
h) 500 to 999
-200,000
i) 1000 to 24
j) 2500 to 49
-400,000
g) 250 to 499
a) 1 to 4
26
16-20
6-10
4
d) 20 to 49
2
0
-600,000
j) 2500 to 49
k) 5000 to 99
l) 10000+
The BDS: Net Employment by Firm
Size and Age
Net Employment Change: by Firm Age and Firm Size, 2004
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
-100,000
k) 5000 to 99
i) 1000 to 24
g) 250 to 499
e) 50 to 99
-200,000
Left Censored
a) 1 to 4
26-28
21-25
16-20
11-15
6-10
5
c) 10 to 19
4
3
2
1
0
-300,000
High Growth Firms
High Growth Enterprises: LBD
Employment
# of Firms
80,000
20,000,000
60,000
15,000,000
40,000
10,000,000
20,000
5,000,000
0
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year
Number of high
growth Entreprises
Employment (in
high growth
entreprises)
Defining “Gazelles”
• What is larger context?
–
–
–
–
Identifying gazelles is only first step
Job creation and destruction relative to old/large?
Job creation in the wider economy?
Tracking over a longer time horizon. What
happens to them? Don’t they get eaten by lions?
• Other Questions and Challenges
– Role in Business cycle  long time series
– Wage dynamics  linking to other data
– What makes them successful  connections to
supply chain …
Summary
• BDS will be a rich source of information
to examine
– Business demography
– Creative destruction/innovation
– Business cycle dynamics
– Role of cohorts, young/small vs. large/old
– Labor market dynamics
But…
• Still much more limited than access to
micro data.
• Synthetic LBD will hopefully prove
useful to a broad range of researchers
including those wishing to do
international comparisons.