Transcript A proposal to implement a GIFS-Forecast Demonstration Project over La Plata basin Celeste Saulo, Univ.

A proposal to implement a
GIFS-Forecast Demonstration
Project over La Plata basin
Celeste Saulo, Univ. of Buenos Aires – Argentina
with many thanks to Pedro Silva Dias and David Parsons
THORPEX ICSC
GIFS TIGGE Working Group
Eighth Meeting
Geneva, February 2010
Why La Plata Basin?
Area:
3.100.000 km2
Inhabitants:
201.656.965
La Plata Basin, is formed by
the discharge of waters from
five countries: Argentina,
Brazil, Uruguay, Bolivia and
Paraguay. Its population
surpasses 200 millions.
It accounts for the generation
of most of the electricity, the
food and the exports of these
countries
Mega-cities:
Sao Paulo-Buenos Aires
Other large cities: Asunción-Sucre-Montevideo
La Plata Basin
precipitation climatology
20S
30S
Mean annual cycle (derived from CMAP 19792000)
a) Over the whole basin
b) Over the monsoonal region
c) Over the southern-central region
Caffera and Berbery, 2005
Synoptic variability and type of severe
weather documented over LPB
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Heavy and/or persistent rains (frequently leading to
floods and slides)
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SACZ (summer) – blocking events (winter) – MCS
(spring and summer) – cyclogenesis (autumn and spring)
Severe storms (tornado, wind gusts, hail, intense
precipitation, lighting, etc)
Droughts
Warm/cold spells
Late Frosts
MCS over South America
From LPB implementation plan, 2005
Intense convective events according to
different parameters
More frequent
Less frequent
Less severe
More severe
From Zipser et al.2006
Most extreme 1% PFs in each
category for each 2-degree
latitude-longitude box (after
Zipser et al, BAMS, 2006)
Blocking events: slides and heavy rains
M. Seluchi (CONGREMET X, 2009)
Floods
There are 3 main subbasins. The potential for
flooding occurs at any time
of the year The largest
contribution during flood
episodes comes from the
Paraná River. Both the
Paraná and the Uruguay
rivers can at least triple the
mean river discharge
during flood events
(Berbery and Barros 2002).
On going efforts in LPB
LPB is a Continental Scale Experiment that is being
coordinated jointly by GEWEX and CLIVAR
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What climatological and hydrological factors
determine the frequency of occurrence and spatial
extent of floods and droughts?
How predictable is the regional weather and climate
variability and its impact on hydrological,
agricultural and social systems of the basin?
What are the impacts of global climate change and
land use change on regional weather, climate,
hydrology and agriculture? Can their impacts be predicted, at least in part?
Progress with Multi-Model Ensemble (NWP)
Global Models: CPTEC, NCEP, UKMET
Regional Models - increasing number of participants
•CPTEC regional model (ETA)
•Brazilian Navy (DWD model)
•Smaller domain – limited to S/SE
•Univ. of São Paulo – BRAMS
•Federal University of Rio de Janeiro - WRF
•National Laboratory for Computational Sciences – ETA,BRAMS
•Univ. of Buenos Aires - WRF and BRAMS
•Federal University of Santa Maria - BRAMS
•3 regional offices - WRF
This is work has been supporting regional activities on the
THORPEX/TIGGE - WMO.
Evaluation Metrics:
Fit to surface observations:
•T2m, Td2m, U10m,V10m, press, rainfall, SW,
•Implementing: SH, LH, LW, SW, based on Micromet towers (about 14 in Brazil) –
connection to LBA, LPB, GABLS …
?
Complex case...
11-12 days of useful forecast
Note that this is particularly
difficult period to forecast!
Large
discrepancies
7-8 days of usefull forecast
Products developed at CIMA (CONICET-UBA)
http://wrf.cima.fcen.uba.ar
Which would be the advantages of focusing a
GIFS-FDP in LPB from the regional perspective?
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Heavy rainfall prediction is a critical issue
Although available, not enough use of ensemble products is
currently done by forecast centers
Advantage of ensemble forecasting applied to severe weather has to
be demonstrated
Efforts could be made to also link to hydrological prediction (given
the high potential for flood occurrence over the area), which is
currently experimental but based on deterministic forecasts
It would be of great interest to assess the impact of additional
observations on forecast quality (particularly for MCS’s and
explosive cyclogenesis) We could probably combine an FDP with a
field experiment, with main focus on the impact of targeted
observations on precipitation forecast skill
Air quality forecasts could be also incorporated, with a focus on
aspects related with health
Science Issues: Improvement in Model Physics
•How to deal with steep orography
•Parameterization of convective rain: MCC’s are challenging!
•Role of wetlands areas : Pantanal issue and extensive flooding
•Role of biomass burning and megacity emissions in the precipitation
Low Troposphere and Long Distance
Transport of PM2.5 and CO
Andes
Low Level Jets
2002 case study
Critical issues in the implementation of
a regional project
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Technical aspects
Product development according to regional
needs
Capacity building
Technical aspects
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The project could make use of the extensive
modeling expertise in Brazil and Argentina
It could also build upon some existing
initiatives
A coordinating institution has to be identified
(Brazil?)
Experience from previous SWFDP needs to be
transferred/adapted
Virtual Center for monitoring
and forecasting severe
weather for Southeastern
South America
Brasil - INMET - Brasilia
INPE/CPTEC - C. Paulista
DHN - Niteroi
SIMEPAR - Curitiba
CLIMERH - Florianopolis
Paraguay - Dinac
Uruguay - Dinamet
Argentina - SMN
Courtesy of M. Seluchi,
CPTEC, Brazil
Product development according to
regional needs
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There is some local expertise in the development and use of
products from EPS (mainly with a scientific approach). There are
some TIGGE products already available through CPTEC and also
a regional Super Model Ensemble System
End users and/or institutions making use of forecasts/warning
systems need to be involved from the very beginning in order to
generate specific products (could be a cross-cut with SERA??)
Although there are networks linking hydropower generationagricultural sector-water management-etc. and weather services,
an articulated work with these institutions is probably the most
difficult task, mainly at an international level
Still it is worth the effort, since they can provide financial support
for some of the activities
Capacity building
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There are many Institutions that could be involved in
this activity:
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University of Buenos Aires
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Intensive Course on Data Assimilation, november 2008 (co
sponsored with WMO)
Training Institute on the use of seasonal climate predictions for
applications in Latin America (co-sponsored with IAI)
Workshop on the Interdisciplinary Science of Climate Changes:
Basic Elements (co-sponsored with ICTP)
National Weather Services (Brazil, Argentina)
Research centers (CPTEC, CIMA, others?)
Possible steps towards the organization
of a FDP
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To organize a training session as a means to increase
involvement of South American countries. The topic should
be ensemble prediction with a focus on GIFS-TIGGE.
Training on verification techniques for ensemble prediction
needs to be included.
Heavy rainfall is an area of strong interest within the region
and thus the instruction should include the use of heavy
rainfall prediction using ensembles. Experience from a
SWFDP could be transferred/adapted with this aim.
Instructors need to include examples from the Southern
Hemisphere and South America prediction problems
Language is an issue: spanish/portuguese spoken trainers
should be appointed
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Thank you!!!
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Questions? – Suggestions?
Previsões Meteorológicas
End Product
Previsões Hidrológicas
uméricos
nutenção
Trajetória das Células
Convectivas
Medições online
Bacias, Rios e Vegetação
Relevo e Geomorfologia
Ocupação Demográfica
Estradas e Oleodutos
Vulnerabilidade
riscos
SISMADEN
From Chou,
Buenos Aires, Congremet– 4-9/10/2009
A prototype of a system that retrieves, stores, and processes hydro-meteorological data in conjunction with
environmental information is developed and is being subjected to tests. The system uses a geographic
database for information-sharing and stores hydro-meteorological data, specific risk maps, and any
additional base maps. This system provides risk alert analyses related to natural disasters triggered by
extremes of heavy rainfall, especially landslides and debris flows in the study region.