Transcript Workshop on the preparation of National Communications from non-Annex I Parties of the UNFCCC JULIA MARTINEZ Director of Climate Change Research General Directorate of Research.

Workshop on the preparation of National
Communications from non-Annex I Parties of the
UNFCCC
JULIA MARTINEZ
Director of Climate Change Research
General Directorate of Research on Urban,
Regional and Global Pollution
INE-SEMARNAT
Manila, Philippines
April 26-30, 2004
Mexico and the UN Framework
on Climate Change
 Mexico signed the UNFCCC in 1992, and ratified it in 1993.
 The Convention came into force for Mexico on March 21, 1994.
 Mexico signed the Kyoto Protocol on June 9, 1998.
The Mexican Senate approved the Kyoto Protocol
on April 29, 2000.
Mexico’s National Communications
 The
First National Communication of Mexico was submitted to
the UNFCCC in 1997.
Funds from US Country Studies Program and UNEP/GEF
 The Second National Communication of Mexico was submitted
to the UNFCCC in 2001.



GHG Emission Inventory Update (1994-1998)
Future Emission Scenarios
Mitigation Policies
www.ine.gob.mx/ dgicurg/cclimatico/comnal.html
GHG Emissions Inventory Update
1994-1998
In 1996, the equivalent CO2 emissions were 686,178 Gg, of which:
Carbon dioxide (CO2):
Methane (CH4):
Nitrogen oxides (N2O)
514,047 Gg
157,648 Gg
14,422 Gg
(75%)
(23%)
(2%)
The CO2 emission from energy consumption in Gg
1990
1994
1996
1998
297010
314352
314730
350380 (18% more than in 1990)
Interactive data base at INE web site
http://www.ine.gob.mx/dgicurg/cclimatico/inventario/index.html
CO2 Projections from fossil fuels
Latin America
year
1972
2000
2010
2020
2030
CO2 (Mt/year)
360
877
1,185
1,571
2,104
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.0
% Annual
Increment
Global
year
1972
2000
2010
2020
2030
CO2 (Mt/year)
13,654
22,639
27,453
32,728
38,161
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.8
% Annual
increment
Source: A Practical Approach to Identifying Emission Reductions
Opportunities. Summary Brochure, ARPEL-IPIECA-UNEP.2002.
Mexico’s CO2 emission growth scenarios
with different GDPs
GDP Annual
growth
(1990–2010)
2010
CO2 Million ton
Growth 1990–2010
(%)
Low (2.5%)
805.6
55%
Medium (4.5%)
878.9
69%
High (6.0%)
960.3
85%
Source: Sheinbaum C, Masera O. Mitigating carbon emissions while
advancing national development priorities: the case of Mexico, climatic
change (2000).
Mexico’s Energy and Forestry emissions for
the medium scenario (CO2 Million tons)
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Energy
292.1
333.4
397.9
546.3
726.0
Forestry
228.9
206.7
186.6
168.9
152.9
520.0
540.1
584.5
715.2
Total
878.9
Source: Sheinbaum C, Masera O. Mitigating carbon emissions while
advancing national development priorities: the case of Mexico, climatic
change (2000).
CO2 emissions related to energy consumption
200.0
180.0
Million tons
160.0
140.0
Agriculture
120.0
Commercial
Residential
100.0
Self consumption
80.0
Electricity generation
Industrial
60.0
Transport
40.0
20.0
0.0
Source: Engineering Institute, National Autonomous University of Mexico, 2000
CO2 Emissions mitigation potential
(million tons)
Option
Combined cycle power plants
Efficient lighting in the residential sector
2000
13.9
0.7
2005
21.2
1.6
2010
70
2.5
Efficient lighting in the commercial sector
Water pumping measures
Efficient industrial motors
Efficient industrial boilers
Transportation measures at MCMA
0.5
1
0.2
1
1.2
0.8
1.1
0.6
1.8
1.1
1.2
1.2
0.9
2.7
1.0
Industrial Cogeneration
Wind electricity generation
Subway at MCMA
TOTAL: ENERGY SECTOR
0.4
1
0
19.9
17.9
6.6
2.0
54.7
35.4
12.2
4.0
131.2
Forestry management (Template)
Forestry management (Tropical)
Restoration
Agroforestry measures
TOTAL: FORESTRY SECTOR
97
10.9
16.4
5.4
129.7
162
18.7
29.7
5.2
215.6
190.8
34.8
31.4
5.1
262.1
149.6
270.3
393.3
TOTAL
Source: Engineering Institute, National Autonomous University of Mexico,UNAM, 2000
• Studies carried out by the National
Institute of Ecology & collaborative
projects
Potential of the Scientific and Technology
Climate Change Research in Mexico
Objectives:
 To obtain an inventory and evaluation of the research carried
out by national institutions on climate change
 To establish cooperation schemes between the research
centers and public institutions
The data base with the results can be consulted at the INE web site
http://www.ine.gob.mx/dgicurg/potencial.html
Study carried out by the “Secretaría de Investigación y Desarrollo”
at UNAM
Co-control of Urban Air Pollutants and
Greenhouse Gases in Mexico City (2002)
Objectives
To support the capacity in Mexico to analyze and develop policies
addressing local air pollution and climate change in an integrated manner
To unify diverse studies of measures for the control of local air pollution
and GHGs, creating a harmonized database of options.
To develop and apply quantitative methods of policy analysis, based on
linear programming (LP) and goal programming (GP), to analyze minimum
cost programs that achieve objectives for multiple pollutants:
 as a tool that CAM use to support decision-making.
 to explore the relationships between controls of local
pollutants and GHGs.
Conclusions:
The PROAIRE measures considered would reduce by 3.1% of
projected CO2 emissions in 2010.
Through LP tool, we found that the emissions reductions of
PROAIRE could be achieved at a 20% lower cost (West et al, 2002)
 Support from USEPA, IES Program, National Renewable Energy
Laboratory
http://www.ine.gob.mx/dgicurg/cclimatico/cocontrolenred.html
Co-benefit study (2003)
Metodological framework
Analysis of Controls
GHG Emissions
Control Costs
Local Emissions
Air Quality
Environmental
Concentrations
Health Impacts
Cases of
Mortality and Morbidity
Valuation
Monetary Benefits
Benefit/GHG
Cost/Benefit
Net Benefits
Goals of Co-benefit study:
1) To improve the economic and emissions (local and global) analysis
of the co-control phase.
2) To estimate the local public health impacts and monetary benefits for a
few specific control measures that would reduce GHG emissions in
Mexico City
3) To develop a tool that summarizes the analysis that is useful to
policymakers.
http://www.ine.gob.mx/dgicurg/cclimatico/cobeneficios.html
Taxis
86
Metro
3
Hybrid buses
20
LPG
16
Cogeneration
1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Saved lives
(Acute mortality +
Chronic mortality)
saved lives / year
Taxis
Metro
Hybrid buses
Cost / Benefit
analysis
LPG total
Cogeneration
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
m illion US dollars
(Discount rate 5%, 2003-2010)
60
80
100
Costs
Benefits
120
Dwelling Project
Agreement signed by FIDE, INFONAVIT & INE (2003)
Other participants: project developers (Casas GEO, etc.)
Future participants: Certifiers (ATPAE, etc..)
Objective:
 Reduce electricity consumption in new dwelling projects in the
North region of Mexico (high energy consumption)
 Reduce GHG emissions
Cities:
Ciudad Juarez, Mexicali, Nuevo Laredo.
Technologies
Air conditioner, Thermal isolation, Windows with double pane of
glass, Efficient lamps
• GHG mitigation actions
undertaken in the energy sector
Energy sector importance
The energy sector is one of the most important economic
activities in Mexico and the principal source of public income.
– The energy sector represents 3% of the GDP.
– Oil exports represent 8.4% of total domestic exportations.
– Hydrocarbon taxes represent 37% of fiscal incomes.
– Almost 40% of total public investments is dedicated to energy
projects.
– The sector has been increasing its efficiency and decreasing its
rate of emissions growth.
Source: Ministry of Energy, 2004
Energy Intensity 1965-2000
•
Since the last decade, Mexico has been generating more
wealth by energy of unit consumed.
5.000
4.000
Formula =
kilojoules
1 GDP produced
3.000
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
18%
Energy Consumption 2000:
Source: Ministry of Energy, 2004
Otros
Hidrocarburos
82%
Total energy supply
Emissions intensity
Likewise, it produces less emissions per energy units.
Emissions intensity and GDP
0.6
800
Emissions intensity
700
0.5
0.4
500
0.3
400
GDP
300
0.2
US$ Billions
600
200
0.1
100
0
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
0
1971
CO2 kg by US$
•
Source: Ministry of Energy, 2004
Emissions and GDP growth
•
Emissions growth has decoupled from GDP growth.
GDP, Gross internal energy supply and CO2 Emissions (1994)
120
115
110
105
GDP
100
Gross Internal Energy Supply
95
CO2 Emissions
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
90
Source: AIE, CO2 Emissions from fuel combustion, 2001.
Source: Ministry of Energy, 2004
Some Mexico’s Government GHG
Mitigation Strategies
•Combined Cycle (CC) Power Plants (CFE)
Almost 90% of new generating capacity projected to 2010 will be
satisfied through combined cycles
•Electric Motors (FIDE-CONAE)
Establishment of Official Mexican Norms (NOM) focused on
energy efficiency (National Commission of Energy Savings)
Cont…
•Industrial Cogeneration (CRE)
It is estimated a potential of 8,664 MW in cogeneration projects
•Residential Efficient Lighting (CFE- FIDE)
Substitution of efficient equipment
•Public Transportation (DDF)
Substitution of small buses (gasoline) for large buses (diesel) in the
Mexican City Metropolitan Area (MCMA)
Increase of subway and light train routes in MCMA
•Renewable energy promotion
Mitigation actions in the energy sector
Over the past 10 years, the National Commission for Energy Savings
(CONAE) and the Trusteeship for Electric Energy Savings (FIDE) have
been implementing programs for a more sustainable use of energy,
especially:
 Thermal insulation of homes,
 The introduction of highly efficient air conditioning equipment,
 The replacement of 500 thousand incandescent fixtures by fluorescent
ones in residential lighting,
 The issuing of 20 official norms on energy saving for household
appliances and other products.
 It is estimated that the energy savings accumulated over the last five
years deriving from the programs mentioned reached 39 thousand
GWh, which meant a reduction of a little over 24 million tons of CO2.
 During the year 2000 alone the country had energy savings
equivalent to 11 thousand GWh and the demand for more than 2,200
MW was obviated through programs oriented toward improving
efficiency in the final use of the energy.
 These figures represented a reduction of almost 7 million tons of CO2
with respect to the baseline of 1990.
CO2 emissions saved in the power sector
 The emissions per GWh generated in
thermal plants have been declining.
820
 In 2001, natural gas was 22.3% of
the total fuel consumption, while in
1990 it was 16.1%.
790
CO2 emissions per GWh in thermal plants
(tonnes of CO2/GWh)
810
800
780
770
760
750
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
740
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
100
80
emissions saved
60
40
20
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
0
millions of tonnes of CO2 saved
emissions level
120
1991
millions of tonnes of CO2
Electric system CO2 Emissions
 The substitution of fossil fuels by
natural gas in electricity generation,
saved 413.4 thousand of tons of
CO2 in 2000.
 The accumulated saving since
1991-2000 is 4.5 millions of CO2.
Source: Ministry of Energy, 2004
Energy Efficiency Savings
Evolution and Prospectives
Consolidated programs
ENERGY
SAVINGS
AVOIDED
CAPACITY
Energy Savings (MBep's)
YEAR
70000
Summer
Time
Programme
6,746 Gwh
6,329 Gwh
1,000 Mw
863 Mw
2000
Since 1996
60000
Miles of Bep's
Technical
Standards
Conae
50000
40000
30000
20000
Fide
10000
CFE
HV
0
1995
Energy
Savings
Programme
1,866 Gwh
525 Mw
1999
1997
1996
1999
1998
2001
2000
2003
2002
2005
2004
2007
2006
2009
2008
2010
CO2 emissions saved by Technical NOMs, FIDE activities and PEMEX
programs alone amounted to 8.5 Mtons in 2000
Source: Ministry of Energy, 2004
Renewable Energy
There is an ongoing effort to develop a favorable legal framework to
promote renewable energy sources.
Renewable Energy long-term infrastructure investment contracts.
Regulatory incentives (financial and contracts) including:
• Accelerated depreciation plans.
• Inter-connection agreements with the possibility of generated energy
purchase.
• Incorporation of used capacity factors to energy transmission.
Green-Fund as a suplement for renewable energy prices.
• Multilateral Funds
• Trade of carbon certificates .
• Others
Support the promotion of a market for renewable energy buyers.
Source: Ministry of Energy, 2004
Renewable potential
• High levels of isolation
 5 kWh/m2-day (average)
• High potential of small hydro projects
 3,500 MW
• Geothermal fields
 1,500 MW
• Wind potential
 3,000 MW in Oaxaca
• Biomass
 1,000 MW (sugarcane)
Source: Ministry of Energy, 2004
Recent – future projects
CFE (1,773 MW)
Hydro power stations: Chicoacen, Chiapas (936 MW), El Cajón,
Nayarit (680MW)
Geothermal: Los Azufres, Michoacán (107 MW)
Wind energy: La Ventosa, Oaxaca (50MW)
Independent Power producers (173 MW)
Wind energy: La Ventosa, Oaxaca (107 MW), Santa. Catarina, Nuevo
León (10 MW )
Biomass Energy: Tizayuca, Hidalgo (15 MW), Waste in Monterrey,
Nuevo León (7.4 MW)
Solar Energy: Baja California (39 MW)
Source: Programa Energía y Medio Ambiente hacia el Desarrollo Sustentable.
2003. SENER-SEMARNAT 2002-2003
ILUMEX Pilot Project
Ilumex pilot project was financed by:
•US$ 3 million from Norway
•US$ 10 million from GEF through the World Bank
•US$ 10 million from CFE.
Total US$ 23 million
During the project approximately 2.5 million compact
fluorescent lamps were sold in the Mexican cities of Monterrey
and Guadalajara.
Purchase of 3.6 million incandescent lamps were avoided.
Ilumex was the first AIJ project that was given a
certificate by International Auditing
The total certified energy saving was 275,313 kW-hr
from 1995 to 1998.
Ilumex was certified with the reduction of emissions :
171,169 tons of CO2 equivalent;
Assuming that 8.11% of total compact fluorescent lamps
were stored.
Landfill project in Monterrey,
Nuevo León, México
- Useful life:
25-30 years (44 hectares )
- 54 million m3 of CH4 from 7.6 million tons of waste (1990-1999).
- 700,000 MW/h (electricity generation)
-
7 MW
- Avoided fuel consumption : 990 thousand tons (equivalent carbon)
- Total Investment  US$ 11.5 million
(WB US$5.2 million)
The electric power produced is connected to the CFE grid and transmitted to:
1.Municipality of Monterrey (Public lighting)
2.Serviciosde Aguay Drenaje(Water pumping)
3.Metrorrey(Transport)
PEMEX CO2 emissions (million tons)
In 2001, PEMEX emitted 40.1 million tons of CO2 distributed in: Pemex Exploration and
Production (PEP) 33.1%; Pemex Refinery (PR) 34.2%; Pemex Gas and Petrochemical
(PGPB) 16%, and Pemex Petrochemical (PQ) 16.7%
SUBSIDIARIA
1999
2000
2001
PEP
13.87
14.23
13.26
PR
15.09
14.18
13.69
PGPB
6.27
6.49
6.41
PPQ
6.32
6.53
6.68
TOTAL
41.55
41.43
40.05
Source: PEMEX, Informe “Seguridad, Salud y Medio Ambiente 2001”.
In 2002 there is a reduction of 3.1 million tons compared to the same period in 2001
(January – August)
PEMEX actions to mitigate CO2 emissions
 Internal market of Carbon permits
 Gas recovery project (Cactus)
 Workshop Arpel-Pemex on GHG emission reductions and
carbon
Energy efficiency and energy savings campaigns
 Training programs in energy and environment
• GHG mitigation actions undertaken
in the forestry sector
Policies of mitigation
in the forest sector
In the sector of land use, change in land use, and forests, the main
strategies are:



Increasing the rate of accumulation of carbon, by creating or
increasing sinks
Reducing the rate of carbon liberation already fixed in existing
sinks; and
Reducing the use of fossil fuels and intensifying that of
renewable products.
The main achievements over the past few years in conserving forest
ecosystems include:
 The reforestation of more than 740 thousand hectares (Pronare
Program),
 Forest planting of more than 47 thousand hectares between 19972003 (Prodeplan Program),
 Reclaiming of over 1.3 million hectares of agricultural lands for
forestry production.
In the period 1997-2000 these reclaiming actions would permit a
future capture of 3.3 million tons of carbon.
Sustainable management of forest and
rainforest
 For the period 1997-2000, the Program of Forest Development
(Prodefor) supported the efficient integration of productive wildlife
chains on more than 7 million hectares.
 With the complete instrumentation of the Program, the carbon
capture was estimated at 288 million tons, of which 237 were
accounted for by forests and 27 by vegetation in arid areas.
 In addition, the Project of Conservation and Sustainable
Management of Forest Resources in Mexico (Procymaf) has
included over 116 thousand hectares in programs of sustainable
forest management, and brought over 13 thousand hectares under
the conservation program.
Participative mitigation of climate change
Background
In 1997, a preliminary assessment was carried out on the carbon sequestration
opportunities in four communities of the Union of Communities ZapotecoChinanteca (UZACHI) and in two from the Union of Communities from Ixtlán-Etla
(IXETO), in the State of Oaxaca.
Objectives
• Servicios Ambientales de Oaxaca (Environmental Services of Oaxaca), SAO, in
collaboration with other NGOs, are promoting a proposal to develop a one year
pilot phase to design a scheme for carbon credits.
• It is expected to raise approximately USD $ 700 000, during the first phase of
the project. Half of the funds raised would go to finance carbon sequestration
citizen projects. The other half would finance agroforestry and improved forest
projects from SAO member organizations, with a verifiable and certified 40, 000
tC from the atmosphere, converted into biomass or incorporated into the soil in
one year.
…..Participative mitigation of climate change
•This project could offer technical and financial support to substitute conventional
management systems for improved forestry systems by means of: Establishing
permanent agriculture frontiers, reforestation and agroforestry plantations;
increasing efficacy in fire, pests and diseases fight and prevention; the use and
profit of non-timber products; reducing the impact of forest logging; and artificially
lengthening of the forest cycle.
Lessons learned
• The evaluation developed in 1997 indicated that 4.5 million tC could be
sequestered in those six communities during the next 30 years, without any
project intervention. It is estimated that 5.2 million tC could be achieved by this
project during the same time. The global impact of this project was estimated at
720 kt C. This would imply an annual average of 24,000 tC.
• Opportunities for carbon sequestration have been identified now in another
seven communities of the Sierra Norte and the Coast of Oaxaca. If the community
of Santa María Huatulco would also be considered, the additional impact would be
around 40,000 tC annually. The average cost of carbon sequestration within the
project is currently estimated at around US $ 6-8 per ton.
Switch to biofuels
 Firewood still represents the main biofuel used in rural zones in Mexico.
In 1990, 25.6 million people (31.4% of the country's total population)
used firewood to cook. It is estimated that the total demand for forest
biomass (firewood and coal) is as high as 355 PJ/year.
 Traditional and handmade stoves and ovens have an efficiency of only
17%, besides causing damages to the health because of the smoke
generated. To reduce these emissions, a rural program is in progress
for installing stoves with a greater energy efficiency which are expected
to permit a reduction in the use of around 6 million tons of wood per
year.
Scolel Té Project
Objectives:
Develop a carbon sequestration prototype scheme in sustainable forests and
agricultural systems. To develop a carbon sequestration model that should be
applicable on a larger scale in similar regions of Mexico and Latin America.
Location:
The project is located in Chiapas, in the southern part of Mexico, covers two
distinct bio-climatic and cultural regions of the State of Chiapas: highland Mayan
Tojolobal communities and lowland Mayan Tzeltal communities.
Participants:
El Colegio de la Frontera Sur (ECOSUR) and the University of Edinburgh's
Institute of Ecology and Resource Management (IERM) are responsible for
providing technical support to local technicians working with farmers' organizations
and to the Fondo Bioclimático, and to monitor carbon sequestration and socioeconomic impacts of the pilot phase of the project.
Carbon Sequestration Potential
The potential impact of the pilot project, in terms of carbon sequestered, is
estimated in 300 thousand tons, through the development of 1,200 hectares
of agroforestry lands and 1,000 hectares of restoration and management of
natural forest.
Cost of sequestered carbon
The average cost of carbon sequestration within the project is currently
estimated at around US $12/tC, of which US $8 are paid to farmers, US $ 2
for administration expenses, and US $ 2 for technical services.
Research associated
• Studies of carbon fluxes associated with land use change, involving direct
measurement of biomass in different types of vegetation.
• Research and development of appropriate protocols for community forestry
planning and administration of carbon sequestration schemes.
• Research of the cost and potential for large-scale carbon sequestration in
southern Mexico, using economic models and geographic information such
as satellite images
Calakmul climate action project
The Nature Conservancy and its Mexican partner organizations have undertaken
a feasibility study to assess the potential for carbon sequestration investment in
the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve and surrounding areas, in the state of
Campeche, Mexico, in the Yucatan Peninsula.
Objectives
• Demonstrate verifiable GHG benefits; the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation
• Provide habitat protection important to flora and fauna of the Reserve;
• Provide social and economic benefits to local communities.
The Nature Conservancy believes that the proposed Calakmul Climate Action
Project is feasible and warrants advancing to full project development.
Location
Located on the Mexican border with Guatemala, the 1.8 million acre (723 000
hectares) Calakmul Biosphere reserve is one of the largest protected areas in
Mexico. Calakmul is the best opportunity to preserve Mexico´s rapidly
disappearing tropical evergreen and diverse tropical semi-deciduous forests.
Participants
• Winrock International
• Consejo Civil Mexicano para la Silvicultura Sostenible
• Instituto de Ecología at UNAM
• El Colegio de la Frontera Sur (ECOSUR)
Project feasibility
The following elements have been considered during the feasibility study:
• Additionality of carbon credits
• Potential leakage and prevention strategies
• Ease of monitoring and evaluation
• Legal land management agreement options
• Risk assessment
• Long term social and economic benefits (i.e. sustainable development)
• Important long term conservation financing benefits
For more information:
General Directorate of Urban, Regional and
Global Pollution Research
http://www.ine.gob.mx
[email protected]