International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring Production in National Accounting Beijing, China,8-10 June 2009 Current Status of National Accounts Cambodia Oeur Sophal and Yim Saonith National.
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International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring Production in National Accounting Beijing, China,8-10 June 2009 Current Status of National Accounts Cambodia Oeur Sophal and Yim Saonith National Institute of Statistics Cambodia Background of Cambodian National Accounts • The Annual National Accounts of Cambodia (ANAC) was established in 1993 under the project to Develop the Statistical System for the National Institute of Statistics with technical assistant from ADB . • ANAC primary based on 1968 UN System of National Accounts and continuing works to adopt the 1993 SNA. • Two methods were compiled namely: Production and Expenditure approaches and both expressed in current and constant prices. Background of Cambodian National Accounts • The ANAC was rebased in 2000. • Technical assistant from IMF since 2001 • In late 2005 the Quarterly National Accounts (QNA) was released first time and this work is continued onward. • Time lag is 6 months for annual national accounts and 3 months for quarterly national accounts. The Estimation of National Accounts • Two approaches were used to estimate the GDP : – GDP by production approach – GDP by expenditure approach • Both approaches were expressed in current and constant prices • The constant prices refer to the values for current year valued at base year 2000 The Estimation of National Accounts • GDP by production: Sum of Gross Value Added (GVA) of : – Agriculture sector – Industry sector – Services sector – and tax on production less subsidies and FISIM The Estimation of National Accounts • GDP Expenditure : Components of GDP expenditure are: – – – – – – HFCE GFCE NPISH GFCF Change in inventories Import-Export Rebased and linking • The national accounts will be rebased to the 2007 reference period. Issues:… • Data sources – Survey data are not enough and frequently – Administrative data have much improvement but quality still a problem and late. – Other study data not frequently update. • Methodology – Methodology for new data sources • Timeliness: data provides by relevant organizations come in late. National accounts compilers have to rush to be on date. Overview of agricultural statistics • The statistical data on agriculture are collected and compiled through periodic reports obtained from enterprises, institutions, households and administrative records by the ministry of Agriculture Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF). Overview of agricultural statistics • The data cover mainly crop production, livestock, fishery and forestry. Data collection is based on reports that require village heads, commune heads and district and province agriculture officers to provide monthly data for crop progress in prescribed formats. The data are compiled at each level from the reports submitted from the lower-level administrative unit and are transmitted through the hierarchy to the central office at MAFF (Department of Planning and Statistics). Surveys on Agriculture by MAFF: • • • • • • Sample surveys on livestock Crop Cutting Survey Abattoir and grain mills surveys Crops yield survey Cost of production survey Agricultural Marketing Price The Estimation of Agriculture GVA • Agriculture sector: methods using to calculate gross value added for agriculture are: – Gross Output – Gross value added ratio (GVAR)= GVA / Output – GVA = Output x GVAR – Commodity flow technique for counter check • Price indices were use to deflate current price to get constant prices The Estimation of Agriculture GVA • Crops Output = volumes x price per unit - Volumes data from MAFF - Prices from NIS(CPI) and MAFF - Adjusted to producer prices - GVA = Output x GVAR The Estimation of Agriculture GVA • Livestock Output = volumes x price - Volume from MAFF - Prices from NIS/MAFF - Output = sales + in farm slaughter + increase in stocks Livestock model - Total available animals = beginning inventory + animals born + animals bought - Animals born assumed to be a percentage of females - Animals bought assumed to be a percentage of beginning inventory - Also estimate farm slaughter as a percentage of available animals - Also make an assumption about deaths - Sales are the residual - GVA = Output x GVAR The Estimation of Agriculture GVA • Fishery Output = volumes x price - Volumes from MAFF - Retail prices from NIS, MAFF - Adjusted to producer prices - GVA = Output x GVAR The Estimation of Agriculture GVA • Forestry Output = volume x price - Volumes: Exports of logs and sawn timber Firewood and charcoal rated forward from SESC - Prices Logs and sawn timber - export price Firewood - CPI Charcoal - MAFF - GVA = Output x GVAR Evolution of agricultural sector in GDP 1998-2007 Share (%) of Agriculture Sector in GDP, 1998-2007 50.0% 44.8% 45.0% 41.5% 37.8% 40.0% 36.2% 33.3% 35.0% 33.7% 30.6% 31.1% 2004 2005 30.0% 29.6% 28.5% 2006 2007 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Gross value added of agricultural sector GVA for Agriculture, 1998-2007 Constant 2000 Price, Billion Cambodia Riels 8,000 6,476 Billion Riels 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,967 5,078 5,058 5,238 5,108 6,830 7,184 5,645 5,596 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Thank you for your attention