We Paved Paradise and Put up a Parking Lot Economic, Social, and Ecological Implications of Incremental Choice Jon D.
Download ReportTranscript We Paved Paradise and Put up a Parking Lot Economic, Social, and Ecological Implications of Incremental Choice Jon D.
We Paved Paradise and Put up a Parking Lot Economic, Social, and Ecological Implications of Incremental Choice Jon D. Erickson Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources University of Vermont The FEEDBACK LOOPS (marginal, and episodic) Tyranny of potentially Small Decisions School Quality 14 12 10 ppm Traffic Congestion 8 6 4 Energy Dependence 2 0 19 80 19 83 19 86 19 89 19 92 19 95 19 98 Social Networks Community Services Chlorides Marginal Economic Change Marginal Land-Use Change Incremental Watershed Health Decline FEEDBACK LOOPS Out from Under the Tyranny Biophysical Land Use Society Community Economy $ Economic Structure and Change Firms Households Land-Use Change and Social Context Watershed Health PARTICIPATORY PLANNING for BIO-REGIONAL POLICY Dutchess County, New York • • • • • 2,077 km2, mixed land use 970 km of named streams > 132,000 employment pool IBM = >11,000 SW to NE development gradient • Effective buying income (EBI) ranks 15th in the U.S. Wappingers Watershed % urban/suburban % forest % agricultural 1992 Historical land use change 2001 Fishkill Watershed % urban/suburban % forest % agricultural 1992 Historical land use change 2001 Increases in Percentage of Land in Urban and Suburban Uses Percent change, 1992 to 2001 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 F01 F02 F03 F04 F05 F06 F07 F08 F09 F10 F11 F12 F13 F14 F15 F16 W01 W02 W03 W04 W05 W06 W07 W08 W09 W10 W11 W12 W13 W14 W15 W16 W17 0 Increases in urban and suburban land as a percent of subcatchment area, for 33 sites in the Fishkill (designated with F codes) and Wappingers (W codes) watersheds. Code numbers increase with distance upstream. Group of Decision-Makers Alt-1 DM-2 Alt-2 Alt-3 DM-1 DM-3 Individual Decision-Maker CEc Alt-1 CSc Alt-3 Alt-2 CEv GOAL Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 CEc CSc CEv CEc CSc CEv CEc CSc CEv w1 + w2 + w3 = 1 CEc Alt-1 CSc Alt-3 Alt-2 CEv 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 F17 F07-A Great Spring E Branch Wapp F02 Little Wappingers F11 F01 Red Oak Mill-MST Hunns Lake F12 Stanford Rec_MST Cold Spring Creek F03 Quiet Acres-MST Upton Lake F13 F04 Gristmill Creek F14 F08 Pleasant Valley-MST Dutchess Co Airport F15 Pleasant Valley East Ecological Criteria Tamarack CEc CSc studentized residuals of NL estimation Alternatives But, biotic Chemistry responses follows Relative condition index for Longnose Dace very noisy! land use +/- s.e. Land Use Alternatives CEc Social Criteria CEv Census by Block, Tract, Town, Zip . . . Business Point Tax Parcel Alternatives Economic Criteria CSc CEv GOVERMENT HOUSEHOLDS Public Private Goods Services & Services Consumption Goods Labor OUTSIDE WORLD Exports Imports Depreciation INDUSTRY CAPITAL Investment Socio-Ec onomic Sub-Model Scenerios Alt 2 Alt 3 SAM_Multipli ers Land_Demand Sectoral_Economic_Growth Sectoral_Economic_Decl ine Estimated Round by Round Indirect Employment Impacts Population Growth 80 T otal_Land_Invent 50 Land_Built Land_Reclamation 40 Real_Estate_Attribu Building 30 Buildable_Land Geophysical_Attibu Land_Use_Location 20 Land_Use_T ype 10 Land_Biophysical_Charac teristics Land_Use_Zonin Ec os y st em Sub-Model 0 Storm_Events Eating & Drinking Job Trainings & Related Services Legal Services Personnel Supply Services C2 Computer and Data Processing Services Industry Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round Ecosystem_Impact Scenerios Wholesale Trade Out Land_Demand Scenerios C1 Semiconductors and Related Devices Stock 60 M aintenance and Repair Other Facilities In Loss GIS Land-Us e Sub-Model 70 Employment Increase Alt 1 Land_Development_Loading Water_Flow Land_Use_Location Aquatic_Dynamics Physicochemical_Parameters Functional_Integretity Biotic_Integrity Ecosystem_Impact Scenario Analysis Biophysical Land Use Society Community Economy Firms Households Individuals Economic Structure and Change Efficient ALLOCATION Land-Use Change and Social Context Equitable DISTRIBUTION Watershed Health Sustainable SCALE GOAL Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 CEc CSc CEv CEc CSc CEv CEc CSc CEv