Transcript Vulnerability and Adaptation assessments in China Wei Xiong, Yue Lin, Erda Lin, et al. Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy.

Vulnerability and Adaptation
assessments in China
Wei Xiong, Yue Lin, Erda Lin, et al.
Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in
Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, MOA
OUTLINE
 Background
 Methods, tools, and
corresponding V&A
researches in China
 Challenges we faced and
the way forward
2015/11/6
New Delhi, India
BACKGROUND
NCCCC
(National Coordination Committee on Climate Change)
NDRC MFPRC
(National
Developm
ent and
Reform
Commissi
on)
(Ministry of
Foreign
Affairs of
China)
MOA
MOF
MOST
(Ministry of
Agriculture
of China)
(Ministry of
Finance of
China)
(Ministry of
Science and
Technology
of China)
12 Ministry members
…………………..
CMA
(China
Meteorologi
cal
Administrati
on)
ZHB
(State of
Environmen
tal
Protection
Administrati
on)
Belong to
Fund
Research organizations
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New Delhi, India
The NCCCC (National Coordination
Committee on Climate Change) in
charges of the issues of climate
change, the climate change relevant
researches or projects were mainly
funded by Ministry Of Sciences and
Technology (MOST).
BACKGROUND
 China began to assess the impacts of
and vulnerability and adaptation to
climate change since 1990’s. the studies
were concentrated on the four areas
closely related to the economy, namely,
water resources, agriculture, terrestrial
ecosystems, and the coastal zones.
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New Delhi, India
Background: International and national cooperation is needed
to resolve the problem caused by climate change
The attendants from national and local
Government and institutes take part in the
Climate scenarios training which hold in Huang
mountain.
Experts and policy makers from
Canada, UK, USA, China take part in
the climate change – capacity building
conference which hold in Lijiang,
YunNan
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New Delhi, India
Methods and tools
Methods
Climate change
scenarios
Models or other ways
Classification
The sensitivity of sectors
to climate change
Adaptation
measures
or
Adaptation
potential
capacity
The impacts of
Climate change
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The vulnerability of sectors
to climate change
The integrated
Assessment of sectors to
Climate change
New Delhi, India
Methods and tools
Tools
1. Observation, Sensitivity practical
experiments, and Analogy, etc.
Experiments of rice response to warming
and high CO2
Beijing, AMI, CAAS (Xie L. Y, Lin E.D.
2002)
Zhang De’er, Climate change in
recent 1000 years in China.
Different field management to GHG emission and
crop yield. Hebei, AMI,CAAS( Wan Y.F., 2003)
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New Delhi, India
Yao Tan dong, climatic and
environmental records in Guliya
ice cap. Et al.
Tools
2. Indices and GIS
Geographic
shifts for the
safe northern
limit of winter
wheat in
Northeast
China in the
next 50years
based on
agro-climatic
indices (Jin
Z.Q., 1998)
Water resource vulnerability using
indices (Liu, C.Z., 2000)
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New Delhi, India
Tools
3. Statistical Models and Experts Estimation
Use the historical data, references and statistics to conclude the
relationship between climate and system, and then deduce the
impacts of future climate on system. It has been used frequently in
China
12
100
90
80
Wheat yield (t/ha)
10
8
70
60
50
40
30
6
4
2
2002
1999
1996
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
1969
1966
1963
1960
1957
0
20
10
0
0
1
2
3
4
5 6
7 8
Wheat yield (t/ha)
9
10 11
Discussion with experts and make adaptation options
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New Delhi, India
Tools
4. Process-based Models
Using models to assess the impacts of climate change and
adaptation. 3 stages of simulations
VIC
hydrological
model
Dssat crop model
APSIM crop model
CEVSA ecosystem model
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New Delhi, India
Static GCMs, combining with stochastic
weather generator, process model to simulate
the impacts of climate change
.
Abies squamata
Quercus Acutissima
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Picea crassifolia
New Delhi, India
Transient General Circulation Models (GCMs)
with different CO2 emission scenario by
stochastic weather generator to assess the
impacts of climate change (Xiong W, Tao F.L,
Xu Y.L, AMI, CAAS, 2001)
Inundated areas under 15cm sea level rise scenario Inundated areas under 30 cm sea level rise scenario
Inundated areas under 65cm sea level rise scenario Inundated areas under 100cm sea level rise scenario
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New Delhi, India
Regional Climate Model (RCM) – PRECIS and Model were used to assess the
impacts and adaptation under IPCC SRES scenarios (AMI,CAAS,2003).
Wheat yield change on 2050s under A2 scenarios
NEP distribution on 2080s under B2 scenarios
The
frequency of drought on 2080s under B2 scenariosNew Delhi, India
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Runoff on 2080s under A2 scenarios
Combination of models tools and indicators tools
Classification of the sensitivity of wheat to climate change (Yang X., 2003)
Sensitivity
Highly Moderately Slightly
Not
negative negative negative sensitive
Slightly Moderately Highly
positive positive positive
Yield
Yield
Yield
Yield
Yield
Yield
Yield
Yield
change reduction reduction reduction reduction increase increase increase
rate
>30% 15%~30% 5%~15% 5%~yield 5%~15% 15%~30% >30%
increase
5%
Vulnerability value = yield change rate× water availability
factor× GDP factor × population factor× other factors
Classification of the vulnerability of wheat to climate change
Vulnerability
Highly
vulnerable
Moderately
vulnerable
Slightly
vulnerable
Yield change Yield reduction Yield reduction Yield reduction
rate
>20%
10%~20%
<10%
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New
Delhi, India
Not vulnerable
No yield
reduction
Distribution of the vulnerability of rain-fed (A) and irrigated wheat (B) in China
Tools
5. Economic Models
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Research on costs and economic
consequences of changed climate on
agriculture (Zhang H. X, 1998, AMI,
CAAS)
Research on Climate Change,
Grain Price And International Trade:
Data analysis method (Chen Y, 2002,
CASS);
Research of climate change on the
economy: Economic Input-output model,
in combination with assumption of
climate change (Zhange Y. Q, et al.,
2001, NJU);
Using Mathematical models to
assess the costs of climate policy and
adaptation options (Wang S. et al., 2002,
Tisnghua University, Zou J, People’s
University).
New Delhi, India
Assessment on other sectors: The simulation of overground biomass and livestock weight under climate
change scenarios: (Li B., CAAS, 1997)
Over-ground biomass
GCDL, UKMOH,MPI
climate change
scenarios
SPUR 2 model
The livestock weight
The over-ground biomass will increase by 13.3% and 23.1% under GFDL and
UKMOH climate change scenarios respectively, the livestock weight will also
increase by 4.7% and 5.2% under these two scenarios. While the values decrease
by 3% for over-ground biomass and by 8.8% for livestock weight under MPI
climate change scenarios.
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Assessment on other sectors – Natural vulnerable
Ecosystem (CRAES, IGSNRR. CAS)

Models (e.g. IMAGE, Holdridge, GREEN) was used to conclude what
impacts would emerge on natural ecosystem (e.g. Forest, Grassland,
Tibet, Lake, wetland, etc.) under different climate change scenarios.
Mangrove ecosystem, CRAES
IGSNRR, CAS, 1998
Yan C.R., 2004,CAAS, CAS
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New Delhi, India
Coral ecosystem, HAU
Integrated assessment: The
Climate Change, Rice Pest
(Chilo suppre-ssalis), and
Rice production in China:
Global
Warming
used the three GCMs
scenarios (HadCM2,
ECHAM4, MaxPI), CERESRice crop model, CSW
(Chilo Suppresa Lias
Chilo suppre-ssalis
Walker) to assess the rice
production under different
climate scenarios and
different pest population
Rice
scenarios (Bejing, 2000,
The number of pest generation will increase under
AMI,CAAS).
climate change, combing with the higher
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New Delhi,temperature
India
will decrease the rice yield to 8%~25%.
Integrated assessment: Climate Change,
the Agricultural Water Cycle
and Agricultural Production in China (Tao F.L.; Yokozawa,M.et al, 2002, AMI,
CAAS, and National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, Japan)
Water is the most critical resource for Chinese
agricultural ecosystems
Soil Moisture Deficit Change (mm)
>50
20 - 50
0 - 20
-20 - 0
<-20
No cropland or data
Crop yield based estimates suggest some production
increases are possible because of warming and CO2
enrichment. But expected moisture deficit indicate that
there are serious threats to the stability and adaptability
of China’s food production system to climatic change.
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Surface Runoff Change (mm)
< -5
-5 - 0
0-5
>5
No cropland or data
Yield Index Change (%)
< -5
-5 - 0
0-5
>5
No cropland or data
So the change of agricultural water resources associated
New with
Delhi,
India change and their implications with agricultural
climate
production are of concern.
Integrated assessment: Socio-Economy scenarios study on
Climate Change impacts in China (Yao Yu Fang, Jiang Jinhe,
2003, IQTE(Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics), CASS (Chinese Academy
of Social Sciences))
 Future primary energy demand will still be coal-based, but the
proportion of new energy sources, including hydro-electricity
and nuclear power, will increase constantly .
 Future arable land area will decrease, bringing challenges to
grain supply in China where the population increases,
urbanization, economic development, as well as the
ecological environment.
 So, despite taking into account the impacts of technological
advancements on increases in grain yield, grain yield will
increase between 2000-2080, but the increasing speed will be
lower than over past 50 years. A gap between grain supply
and demand will begin to emerge from 2010, and around
2040 will see the widest, which will reach around 77 million
tons and account for about 11.7% of the total amount of grain
demand
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New Delhi, India
Integrated assessment: land use change under climate
change in China (He Chunyang, Key Laboratory of Environmental
Change and Natural Disaster, Beijing Normal University)

SLUD (Scenarios Land Use
Dynamics) model was to use
the predict land use change
under different climate change
scenarios.
Scenario A
(2020
Scenario A
(2050
Glacier
Desert
Urban land
Gobi
Cultivated land
Forest land
Wetland
Bare rock
Water area
Grassland
Legend
Scenario B
(2020
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Scenario B
(2050
Land use change in next 50 years
New Delhi, India
Challenges, the way forward
1. Models’ calibration and validation
2.
Assessment of extreme events
3. Uncertainties
4.
Natural and social dimension
5. Quantitative analysis of adaptation and
vulnerability
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New Delhi, India
Challenges and solutions
1. Models’ calibration and validation
Most of the V&A assessment models were introduced from
developed counties, these models possibly unfit for Chinese
environments. Therefore, the models’ calibration and validation
are desperately required, but this work didn’t be implemented
well in China.
产量（Kg·hm-2）
甘肃酒泉
8600
7600
6600
5600
4600
3600
2600
1600
600
a
b
c
d
1985 1986
1987 1988
1989 1990 1991
1992 1993 1994
1995 1996
1997 1998
时间（年）
Provide standard models’ calibration
and validation manuals or methods
to reduce the models’ uncertainties.
Propose quantitative criteria for C&V
of models
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New Delhi, India
Challenges
2. Assessment of Extreme events and climate disasters
is more impacted by extreme
events, rather than by the mean
climate change. There is no
effective methods, or tools to
address this problem.
There was no yield at all in 2004, 2005 in south
ningxia, northwest China for serious drouhgt
RCM shows the capacity of projecting
extreme events, but by so far, there are
litter available methods or models for
developing counties to carry out this
assessment.
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The damage caused by hail, 80% yield loss
New Delhi, India
Challenges
3. Uncertainties
 Scenarios: climate change and social-economical
scenarios. Run lots of scenarios
 Models, e.g. CO2 fertilization effect
 Human dimension: agricultural policy, international trade,
price, technology improvement, etc.
 Other uncertainties, e.g. scale, data processing, etc.
 How many uncertainties to each parts?
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New Delhi, India
Challenges
4. Natural and social dimension
 How much change was caused by climate change, how
much was caused by human activities.
 How to integrate the human dimension factors into V&A
assessment, particular to adaptation assessment.
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Surveying the farmers
New Delhi, India
Consulting with main institutions
Challenges
5. Practical adaptations and quantitative
analysis
adaptation measures are qualitative and not
operable. (adaptation measures just include: developing waterconservation agriculture, cultivating disease- and pest-resistant
varieties, etc. even in IPCC reports)
lack the performance analysis and cost-benefit
analysis.
Adaptation options didn’t identify to local
circumstance.
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New Delhi, India
The way forward
 Integrated assessment
 V&A assessment and regional sustainable
development
 V&A assessment combining with the mitigation of
greenhouse gases
 International cooperation
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New Delhi, India