Transcript Observations on: The 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan: Pattern Recognition Lorcan Dempsey VP Research and Chief Strategist CNI Spring 2004 Task Force Meeting Alexandria, April 16 2004

Observations on:
The 2003 OCLC
Environmental Scan:
Pattern Recognition
Lorcan Dempsey
VP Research and Chief Strategist
CNI Spring 2004 Task Force Meeting
Alexandria, April 16 2004
Overview
The library community?
• The 2003 OCLC
Environmental Scan
• Customary Board of
Trustees 3 year review
• This year:
– Worldwide scan
– User perspective
– In format for sharing with
membership
Pattern recognition
We have no future because
our present is too volatile.
We have only risk
management. The spinning
of the given moment’s
scenarios.
Pattern recognition …
Worldwide Scan
•100 people interviewed
•29 countries selected
•60% of the world’s
population
•85% of world’s gross
domestic product
Scan content
Social
Technical
Economic
Research
& learning
Library
The social landscape The social landscape The social
landscape The social landscape The social landscape
The social landscape The social landscape The social
landscape The social landscape The social landscape
The social landscape The social landscape The
social
landscape The social
Technical
landscape The
social landscape
The social
Economic
landscape The
social
Research landscape The
& learning social
landscape The
social
landscape The
social landscape
The social
landscape The
social landscape The
Library
social landscape The
social landscape The
Social
Trends
• The ‘Amazoogle’ effect
• Generations
• The fabric of collaboration
• The value of the library
Technology is what has been
invented since you were born
Alan Kay
Internet search & answer
Social
landscape
OCLC – compiled from various sources (August 2003)
Microcontent
Last Minute Addition:
Worldwide Microcontent Market
2003 - $1Billion
Includes: ring tones, logos,
screen savers, micro games,
etc.
Top Ten Tech Searches 2003
1. Ringtones
“By 2007,
Amazon.com’s revenue
from microcontent
sales will exceed
$500million.”
(0.6 probability)
2. Digital Cameras
3. Mobile Phones
4. HDTV
5. MP3 Players
OCLC – compiled from various sources (August 2003)
http://search.yahoo.com/top2003
The Amazoogle effect
• Three perceived attributes?
– Comprehensive
– Accessible
– Immediate gratification
The net generation doesn’t love a wall
The fabric of collaboration: Social
software
The collaboration technology fabric
OCLC – compiled from various sources (August 2003)
Social landscape
Trends
• Net generation
– Self-sufficiency
– Seamlessness
– Abundance
• Library
– Increasingly called to
define value against the
Amazoogle horizon
– Opportunity and
challenge
Social
The economic landscape The economic landscape
The economic landscape The economic landscape
The economic landscape The economic landscape
The economic landscape The economic landscape
The economic landscape The economic landscape
The
economic landscape
Technical
The economic
landscape The
economic
landscape The
economic
Research landscape
& learning The
economic
landscape
The economic
landscape The
economic
landscape The
economic landscape
Library
The economic
landscape The economic
Economic
Economic
landscape
• Changes in “funding of the public good”
– Normal cycles or permanent changes?
• Sources of library / education funds
• Uses of library funds
– Resource
allocations
– Trends, shifts
Library spending
U.S., Japan, U.K.,
Italy and France
represent nearly 75% of the
total estimated 2000
worldwide library spending
$29 billion
LibEcon (August 2003)
Uses of library funds
Staff 53%
46%
Other
17%
33%
Materials stock
27%
14%
7%
ARL libraries
2001-02
eContent/subscriptions 3%
Worldwide average for libraries in
sample countries 2000-01
LibEcon (August 2003); ARL (2003)
Trends
• Questioning the value of the public good
– Education
– Public services
• Need for evidence of value
The technical landscape The technical landscape The
technical landscape The technical landscape The
technical landscape The technical landscape The
technical landscape The technical landscape The
Social
technical landscape The technical landscape The
technical
landscape The technical
landscape The
technical
landscape The
Economic
technical
landscape
Research The technical
& learning landscape
The technical
landscape
The technical
landscape The
technical
landscape The
technical landscape
Library
The technical
landscape The technical
Technical
Technology landscape
• A non-Library technology review
Where we looked and who we consulted:
– Technology periodicals / publications
– Leading technology vendors
– Top technology analysts
Trends
• Ambient connectivity and embedded
computation
• Unplug and play
• Coping with abundance
• Open source
• Convenience vs privacy
A new era – ambient and embedded
Adapted from: Gartner Inc. 2003
Ambient and embedded
• In an electronically nomadicised world
I have become a two-legged terminal,
an ambulatory IP address, maybe
even a wireless router in an ad hoc
mobile network.
• Those who just want a simpler life
may choose to unplug, and to live off
the grid in Idaho. But for this particular
early 21st Century nodular subject,
disconnection would be amputation. I
am part of the networks and the
networks are part of me. … I am
visible to Google. I link therefore I am.
Unplug and play
• Software
“pieces”
• Web services
• Distributed
The User
Common services
• Google API
• Amazon API
• In 2002, 6.2% of
Amazon revenues,
or $246 million,
came from using
Web services to
become an ecommerce
platform.
Content
services
Presentation
services
Application
services
OCLC Research (August 2003)
How to
organize a
new
abundance?
Role of library
approaches?
Hype or Hope?
“How close are we to the Semantic Web that Tim
Berners-Lee describes? Yes, and my American
garage door talks to my Belgian toaster, and
they agree I am hungry. Great idea. I think it will
take a long time to realize, and that we will go
through several generation of enabling
technologies before we find ones that are suitable
to actually get the job done.”
—Herbert Van de Sompel
Salton’s
Home Hub
2004 Consumer Electronic Show
Social
Research & learning landscape Research & learning
landscape Research & learning landscape Research &
learning landscape Research & learning landscape
Research & learning landscape Research & learning
landscape
Research & learning
Technical landscape
Research &
learning
Economic
landscape
Research
& learning
landscape
Research
& learning
landscape
Research &
learning
landscape
Research &
Library
learning landscape
Research & learning
Research
&
learning
Research & learning landscape
• Changing pattern of research and learning
behaviours
–…
• Changing patterns of scholarly
communication
• Lifelong learning trends
• The need for place
– Social exchange
Learning for work
Learn, adapt, change
• In 2001, US$23 billion
• In Fortune’s 100 fastest
growing companies, 2 of top 10 are
e-learning companies
• $400 million in Asia Pacific by 2005
oclc taskforce on elearning
• Diffusion of information skills
and use through
the learning
process
?
• Life cycle
management
of learning materials
• Systems interaction
between library and
learning management
systems
Picture courtesy Dan Rehak,
Carnegie Mellon University
Scholarly information flow
discovery, harvesting
discovery, linking, embedding
Aggregators
harvesting
Data analysis,
transformation,
mining, modeling
Research
and e-science
Data creation, capture and
gathering, lab experiments
fieldwork, surveys, grids
media…
Learning object
creation, reuse
deposit, self archiving
deposit, self archiving
Repositories
Learning &
teaching
validation
publish, discovery
discovery, linking, embedding
Courses, modules,
learning management
systems, learning
portals…
peer-reviewed
journals
Conferences, abstracting
and indexing services, etc.
Picture adapted from Liz Lyon
• Complex
– Resource management
– Personal, institutional, other
– relationships
• A service and role question
Social
The library landscape
library landscape The
landscape The library
landscape The library
landscape
Economic
The library landscape The
library landscape The library
landscape The library
landscape The library
The library landscape The
Technical library landscape The
library landscape
The library
landscape The
library
landscape
Research The library
& learning landscape
The library
landscape
The library
landscape The
library landscape
The library
landscape The
library landscape The
Library
Interviews
“Libraries should reallocate
positions to newer kinds of
jobs: digital scholarship, open
source projects, etc.”
“Librarians cannot
change user behavior
and so need to meet
the user.”
Interviews
“Paper content is being moved offsite to make room for things like
cafes and information commons,
but what stays and what goes? We
do not have good tools for these
decisions.”
“The idea of the
balanced—but
unread—
collection is
disappearing.”
Collections grid
stewardship
high
Books
Journals
low
high
Special
collections
Freely-accessible
web resources
uniqueness
Newspapers
Gov. docs
CD, DVD
Maps
Scores
low
Rare books
Local/Historical
newspapers
Local history materials
Archives & Manuscripts,
Theses & dissertations
Open source software
Newsgroup archives
Research and learning
materials
•ePrints/tech reports
•Learning objects
•Courseware
•E-portfolios
•Research data
Some issues
Does structure of costs reflect new roles?
Reallocation of resources?
Digital resource management .
Skills
Mainstreaming special collections
Engagement with research and learning
Grant funding
Application architecture
Common services
I’m looking for
something
through my
library’s portal.
Content
services
The User
Presentation
services
Application
services
OCLC Research (August 2003)
Application architecture
Directory:
ILL policy
Directory:
service
description
Directory:
user profile
Authentication
Common services
Directory: local
knowledge
base
Reference db
OpenURL resolver
Circ/ILL system
Article db
Request broker
Query broker
The User
Presentation
services
Content
services
Application
services
OCLC Research (August 2003)
Interconnected library environment
• More complex library systems environment
– ILS, portal, resource sharing, resolver, digital asset
management, …
• More complex institutional systems environment
– Learning management system, university portal, local
government portal, …
• Growing use of shared services
– Directory, identity management, trust management, …
Social
Technical
Economic
Research
& learning
And …
Library
Trends & implications
global
membership
search
Research
Technology
e-learning
self-sufficient
public good
Open-source
Web services
rights
management
e-commerce
seamless
collaboration
Library
Economic
OCLC
Social
• A turning point
• Engagement with research, learning and
living in new ways
• Create value
• Skills and values
Read the full report
www.oclc.org/membership/escan
Print copies available
at same URL
$15 to cover print
and postage
The pattern is new …
The knowledge
imposes a pattern
and falsifies
For the pattern is new
in every moment