Transcript Work on collection and dissemination of information on methods and tools to assess impacts of, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change. UNFCCC Compendium. O.

Work on collection and dissemination of
information on methods and tools to
assess impacts of, vulnerability and
adaptation to climate change.
UNFCCC Compendium.
O. Pilifosova
MIS,UNFCCC secretariat
Manila 26-30 April, 2004
1
Mandate
• Decisions 9/CP.3:
– continue work on the synthesis and dissemination of
information, conducive to ... adapting to climate change,
particularly to assess different adaptation strategies;
– accelerate the development of these methodologies
• SBSTA conclusions:
– endorsed the acceleration and broadening of the work of
the secretariat on methods and tolls to assess impacts
of and vulnerability and adaptation to Climate
change;
– hold workshops and expert meetings
– liaise with UN organisations
2
Goals
– enhance dissemination of methods and
quality of information on them;
– to encourage and assist Parties in
applying the best available methods;
– promote improving quality of
methodologies;
3
Compendium
• Initial Compendium on methods and tool to assess
adaptation strategies –1999
•
•
•
•
V&A assessment process has developed
New mandate was given by the SBSTA
TAR was issued
17/CP.8 made a reference to the Compendium
• Reinvigorated Compendium of methods and tools
to evaluate impacts of, vulnerability and
adaptation to climate change –2003
http://unfccc.int/program/mis/meth/index.html
4
What methods and tools?
• A number of approaches: framework for entire
process of V&A assessment
• Numerous methods/tools for each stage/step of
assessment Methods: used to assess specific
issues under an approach e.g. CC scenarios, cost
analysis, risk assessment, stakeholder approaches
etc.
• Tools: expert judgement; models; risk assessment
tools; etc.
• Sources: UNEP HB, USCP, UN projects, AID
programmes, academic institutions, NGOs, etc.
5
Updated compendium: tasks
• Capture major developments in the process of V&A
assessment: two main approaches
• Be consistent with the User Manual and NAI
guidelines
• Include “Most wanted” methods identified by
Parties
• Cover at least 5 sectors
• Include additional/new sources of info: UN projects
(UNEP/AIACC, UNDP/APF), FAO, WHO, UK, German,
Netherlands DA, etc.
• Be straightforward to users and prescriptively
neutral
6
Major developments V&A assessmenttwo main approaches
ADAPTATION POLICY FRAMEWORK (as of February 21, 2003)
IPCC Technical guidelines & UNDP
1.
Define the Scope of the Problem(s)
And Assessment Process
Scope Project Context and Design
 Define project objectives in the context of existing
national policies and sustainable development plans
 Review & synthesize existing information including
impact studies and National Communications
 Design the APF Project including the project team
Conduct Biophysical and Economic Impact Assessments
and Evaluate Adaptive Adjustments
Agriculture
Forests
Grassland/
Livestock
Water
Resources
Coastline
Integrate Impact Results
Fisheries
Health
Wildlife
Task (cross-cutting): Engage stakeholders
2.
Assess Current Vulnerability & Adaptation
 Assess climate risks and impacts
 Assess socio-economic conditions
 Assess adaptation experience (including policies and
measures and adaptive capacity)
 Assess vulnerability (to both socio-economic conditions
& climate)
3.




4.
Characterise Future Climate-related Risks
Characterise climate trends, risks and opportunities
Characterise socio-economic trends, risks & opportunities
Characterise natural resource and environment trends
Characterise barriers and opportunities for enhancing
adaptation
Develop Adaptation Strategy
 Identify and formulate policy options & measures
 Prioritise policies and measures
 Formulate adaptation strategy
Task (cross-cutting): Increase adaptive capacity
Choose Scenarios:
Socioeconomic
Environmental
Climate Change
Analyze Adaptation
Policies and Programs
5.
Continue Adaptation Process
 Incorporate adaptation policies and measures into development
plans
 Implement APF results & institutionalise follow-ups
 Review, monitor & evaluate the effectiveness of policies,
Document and Present Results
measures and projects (impacts of adaptation on policies etc.)
7
New developments: 2 approaches
Scenario-Based Approach/Top-down
Climate Change
Scenario
Biophysical
Impacts
Socio-Economic
Impacts
•How dangerous is
climate change?
What are the key
impacts/risks?
•Explored in first
National
Communications
Adaptations
to Impacts
•Contributed in the
SAR and TAR IPCC
reports
Residual or
Net Impacts
•Three main
frameworks/sources
8
Vulnerability Approach (Bottom-up)
-How to adapt to climate change? -New generation of
V&A assessments. Science is emerging( 4AR.)Current
Exposure
Climate
Science
Social
Science
Current
Adaptive
Capacity
Current
Vulnerability
3 main framework
Future
Exposure
Future
Adaptive
Capacity
Future
Vulnerability
9
Consistency with NG/UM
NAI guidelines/User Manual on V&A Methodologies
• Encourage use of “appropriate” methodologies
• Report on methods used, including:
– general approaches/frameworks for assessment
– climate change and socio-economic scenarios, if
appropriate
– different methods and tools for impacts
assessment
– evaluation of adaptation options and strategies
– policy frameworks for adaptation
10
Consistency with NG/UM
NAI guidelines/User Manual on V&A reporting
• scope of their V&A assessment, including
identification of most critical vulnerable areas
• information on their vulnerability to the
impacts: key findings and direct and indirect
impacts, allowing for an integrated analysis of
the country’s vulnerability to climate change
• information on strategies and measures for
adapting to climate change
• report on the use of policy frameworks in
adapting to CC
11
“most wanted” methodologies
Methodological needs for :
• selecting and testing GCM and downscale
outputs
• evaluating, prioritize and cost adaptation
options for future CC
• addressing vulnerability to extreme events
• developing socio-economic scenarios in
complex circumstances
• integrating vulnerability and adaptation issues
into economic and development planning
processes
• assessing current vulnerabilities …
12
Up-dated Compendium:structure
• Comprehensive Frameworks and Supporting
Toolkits (6)
• Cross-Cutting Issues and Multi-Sector Approaches
– Application of Scenario Data in Impact and Adaptation
Assessment (12)
– Decision Tools (7)
– Stakeholder Approaches (5)
– Other Multisectoral Tools (6)
• Sector Oriented Tools
– Agriculture (21)
– Coastal zone (7)
– Water (7)
– Health (6)
– Forest and vegetation (8)
13
Structure of the information about
methods
}
}
}
}
}
}
}
}
}
}
}
}
}
}
Description.
Appropriate use.
Scope.
Key tools.
Key outputs.
Key inputs.
Ease of use.
Training required.
Training offered.
Computer requirements.
Documentation.
Applications.
Contacts for tools, documentation, and technical assistance
References.
14
Compendium: What it does and does not
•
•
is not a “cookbook”
not a manual describing how to implement
each tool, but a survey
•
provides users with key information about
available frameworks and tools TO ENABLE
THEM TO CHOOSE METHOD/tool
•
is not a comprehensive source, but part of
an ongoing process and should be
considered a living document
15
Expert meeting on V&A methods/tools
25-26 April, Manila
• Participants:14 experts from 8 countries and 2
UN organizations
• Objectives:
– Review the information in the Compendium
– Advise on review and improvements/next steps
• Output:
– Revised compendium
– Reports - on web&input to a bigger report TBD
• Overall assessment of the meeting: extremely
useful
16
Expert meeting on V&A methods/tools
25-26 April, Manila
– Analyzed and assessed structure, scope,
methods/tools and information about them
– Agreed that
•
•
•
•
it is a very rich pile of information,
very helpful for NCs
should to be maintained and periodically reviewed
some changes (“aspirin” and “surgery”) can make it even
more useful for NAI countries
– Identified
• some gaps in both info and methods
• areas and means for improvement of the structure, scope
of the overall document and information on methods
– Proposed
• criteria for inclusion of new methods
• new methods for inclusion
• options/means for periodical review
17
Next steps –short term
• “Aspirin” type improvements, e.g.:
– glossary of terms,
– clearer division between “methods”, “frameworks”
and “tools”,
– updating web links, references
– correcting mistakes
– adding new methods in 3 sectors +
ASAP
18
Next steps –longer term
– “Surgery” improvements, e.g.:
•
•
•
•
data base,
user-friendly interface,
searching engine
introducing more “evaluative” approach to information on
methods, etc.
– Future reviews/updating:
• periodical reviews, and periodic updating through
meetings, conference calls, creating a review network,
etc.
Subject Availability of Recourses
19
Next steps - next
Side event at SBSTA 20: presentation, experience
on applying methods in the Compendium – June
See you there
Thank you.
20