United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Statistical Division Lessons Learned from MDGs and the Post-2015 Agenda Seminar ‘The way forward in poverty measurement’ Geneva, 2-4 December.
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United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Statistical Division
Lessons Learned from MDGs and the Post-2015 Agenda
Seminar ‘The way forward in poverty measurement’ Geneva, 2-4 December 2013
Content
Lessons learned MDGs • • Coverage/use Discrepancies Post 2015 agenda • Consultation process • References to Statistics Implications for the way forward
Slide 2
Millennium Development Goals
Millennium Declaration adopted by the General Assembly in September 2000 at the Millennium Summit Main output: Initiation of the MDG Largest international effort to reduce poverty Goals set with time-bound and quantified targets
Indicators to monitor progress
Base year: situation in 1990,
deadline 2015 Slide 3
UNECE Regional MDG Database
Official National and International data for monitoring the MDGs Additional indicators frequently used in UNECE Region Disaggregated data if relevant and available Comparable data grouped together Include available metadata (definitions, methods, primary data source, reference period etc.)
w3.unece.org/pxweb/ or via www.unece.org/stats Slide 4
http://w3.unece.org/pxweb/
Slide 5
Coverage of MDG indicators in National Reporting ECE region
Most Indicators have very low coverage:
Indicators Country
• 6 per cent: >75% • 8 per cent: 50-75% • 20 per cent: 25-50% • 65 per cent: < 25% • 31 per cent: < 10%
N=29 countries
Not always according to internationally recommended definition and/or methodology
Slide 6
Coverage official poverty indicators in National MDG monitoring:
1.01 Population below $1 (PPP) per day • 29% (at least 3 data points: 25%) 1.02 Poverty gap ratio at $1 a day (PPP) • 21% (at least 3: 13%) 1.03 Poorest quintile's share in national income or consumption • 50% (at least 3: 50%) National poverty line: 100% (at least 3: 97%)
Slide 7
Additional indicators used frequently for MDG Target 1a
• Relative national poverty line (18) • Basic needs based national poverty line (14) • Food basket based national poverty line (11) • $4.30 or $5.00 (PPP) per day (7) •
Unspecified national poverty line, unspecified (7)
Income poorest quintile to the income of the richest quintile (6) Gini coefficient (13)
N=29
Slide 8
MDG 1.3: Poorest quintile’s share in national income or consumption (%)
Albania Azerbaijan Armenia Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria Belarus Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Estonia Georgia Hungary Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Latvia Lithuania Malta Moldova, Republic of Montenegro Poland Romania Russian Federation Serbia Slovakia Slovenia Tajikistan Turkey Turkmenistan Ukraine The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Uzbekistan
90
na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na n na na n na na na na na na na
91
na na na na na na na na na na na na na n na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na
92
na na na i na na na na na na na na na n na na na i na i i na i na na na i na na
93 94 95 96 97
na na na na na na na na i na na i na i na na i na na na i i na na na i na i na na i na na i i i na na na na na na na na i i i na na 4.4 n na na na na na na na i na na na na na na na 2.7 na na na i na na na na na na na na na na n na 1.1 n na na na i na na na i na n i i n i na i na i i na na na na na i na na na i na na na i na na na 1.7 n na na na na na na na n na na na na i na i na n i na na i na na na i na i na na
98
na na na na na na na i na 0.8 n i na i na na na na na
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
na na -1 na n na i na 0.8
i i i na n -1 0.5 na na 0.9
na na 0.9 n na na 4.9 na n -1 -0.8
i na na i i i na na na 1.4
na na na 0.4 na na 0.1 -0.2 -1.4 -0.3 n na na i na na 0.5 na 0.5
na 0.8
na 0.9
na 0.5
na na na i na na 1.1 na 9.3 n na na na na n na na na n 1.3 n na na 0 na 0.5
na 0.4 -0.2
na na na i na i na i na i na i na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na i na i na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na i na i na i i i na i i i i i i na na i na 3.7
na 3.4
na 3.8
na i i i i i na na i i i na i i na na 4 na 3.7
na 3.4
na 3.4 na na i i i i i i i na i na na na i i na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na i i na na i na na na i i i i i na i na i na na na i na i na i na na na
Slide 9
Discrepancies national and international MDGs indicator data
Nearly always discrepancies in values and coverage └► Different definitions, methodologies and (primary) data sources • • Often break in series Data sources not always consistent and sustainable Often no common approach National policy vs International comparability • └► Need metadata to explain difference
Slide 10
Promo Slide Getting the Fact Right
- Guide to presenting metadata - Metadata for interpreting data and tracking development progress - Exampled on MDG indicators from UNECE Region
Slide 11
Main critique MDGs:
Focused more on least-developed countries and less relevant for middle and high income countries Countries were not involved in setting the Goals, Targets and, especially, the selection of indicators
Statisticians were not involved in choosing the indicators and setting the targets
Slide 12
Development Agenda beyond 2015 the Post-2015 MDG follow-up
General Assembly Member States: open, inclusive consultations involving civil society, the private sector, academia and research institutions from all regions, in addition to the UN system, to advance the development agenda beyond 2015.
Coherence between UN Conference on Sustainable Development and the preparations for the post-2015 United Nations development agenda.
Slide 13
UN Secretary General SG Special Advisor UN General Assembly
WG on Monitoring and Indicators Technical Support Team on SDG WG on Global Partnership for Development
High ‐ level Panel of Eminent Persons (HLP)
UNDG National, global and thematic consultations UN Country Consultations UN Thematic Consultations Regional Consultations UN Global Compact World We Want web platform
Sustainable Developme nt Solutions Network (SDSN)
UN GA Open Working Group (OWG)
My World Global Survey High Level Political Forum Committee of experts on Sustainable Development Financing
Millennium Development Goals
Post-2015 Agenda & Sustainable Development
Secretary General General Assembly
UN System Task Team (UNTT) on the Post-2015 UN Development Agenda
High ‐ level Panel of Eminent Persons on the Post ‐ 2015 Development Agenda
High Level Political orum WG on Monitoring and Indicators
UN Thematic Consultations Regional Consultations
Sustainable Developme nt Solutions Network (SDSN)
UN Global Compact Committee of experts on Sustainable Development Financing UN Country Consultations World We Want web platform My World Global Survey 60 UN agrncies
ECE Countries Academics General Public Slide 15
Post-2015 Reports
Slide 16
General Assembly 68
th
session:
Countries have decided to decide
: • • Decided to launch a process of intergovernmental negotiations which will lead to the adoption of the post 2015 development agenda The post-2015 agenda should reinforce commitment to poverty eradication and sustainable development Open Working Group: prepare proposal on SDGs for 68 th session of the GA (sept.2013-2014) Secretary General Synthesis report before the end of 2014 General Assembly September 2015 for the adoption of the post-2015 development agenda
Slide 17
Examples of References to Data and Statistics
Slide 18
Recurrent/Common Issues in reports
Poverty eradication remains overarching objective Sustainable Development at core Should be relevant for all countries Involve statisticians in selecting indicators More important role for Statistics Importance of good data Inequality should be covered Special attention for vulnerable groups Disaggregated data needed Poverty multidimensional
Slide 19
Considerations for The way forward
We need a limited coherent set of indicators useful for international comparison and relevant for all ECE countries Indicators based on commonly used data sources Include component for sustainable development Multidimensional aspects of poverty, inequality and social exclusion need to be addressed National policies are country specific: large common set not feasible However, common problems: common conceptual framework useful
Slide 20
UN Secretary General SG Special Advisor UN General Assembly
Task Team on Lessons Learned in MDG Monitoring
Inter Agency Expert Group (IAEG)
WG on Monitoring and Indicators Technical Support Team on SDG WG on Global Partnership for Development
High ‐ level Panel of Eminent Persons (HLP)
UNDG National, global and thematic consultations UN Country Consultations UN Thematic Consultations Regional Consultations UN Global Compact World We Want web platform
Sustainable Developme nt Solutions Network (SDSN)
UN GA Open Working Group (OWG)
My World Global Survey High Level Political Forum Committee of experts on Sustainable Development Financing
Millennium Development Goals
Countries have decided to decide
Whatever the outcome of this Seminar and whatever the possible follow-up activities will be: Mobilize the national statistical community to advise your government and to make sure you will be consulted
Slide 22
Considerations for The way forward
We need a limited coherent set if indicators useful for international comparison and relevant for all ECE countries Indicators based on commonly used data sources Include component for sustainable development Multidimensional aspects of poverty, inequality and social exclusion need to be addressed National policies are country specific: large common set not feasible However, common problems: common conceptual framework useful
Advise our governments, get them to consult statisticians
Slide 23
Additional Slides
Slide 24
Inter Agency Expert Group (IAEG)
UN Secretariat, specialized agencies, government agencies, national statisticians etc.
Biannual coordination meeting Technical coordination group on statistics and monitoring Technical sub-groups for specific areas/indicators Coordinated by UNSD
Slide 25
SGs High-level Panel on Post 2015
To prepare a bold yet practical development vision to present to Member States Members from civil society, private sector and government leaders (30) Chair: PM David Cameron, Pr. Ellen Johnson Sirleaf & Pr. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono Consultative meetings with international civil society, private sector representatives and global youth 100 National consulatations
Slide 26
UN System Task Team (UNTT)
To support the consultation process Coordinate system-wide preparations and define a system-wide vision on a post-2015 agenda Critical evaluation of how the MDGs have worked Expert Group Meeting UNTT and national and academic experts Lead by UNDESA and UNDP Inform the High-level Panel of Eminent persons 3 Inter-agency technical support teams
Slide 27
The Sustainable Development Solutions Network
Independent global network of research centres, universities and technical institutions to help find solutions for some of the world’s most pressing environmental, social and economic problems. The Network will work with stakeholders including business, civil society, UN agencies and other international organizations to identify and share the best pathways to achieve sustainable development.
Part of the work undertaken in response to the mandate on post ‐ 2015 and the outcome of the Rio + 20 Conference.
Directed by Professor Jeffrey D. Sachs In close coordination with the High ‐ level Panel of Eminent Persons on the Post ‐ 2015 Development Agenda
Slide 28
UN GA Open Working Group
UN General Assembly intergovernmental Open Working Group Established at 67 th session Key objective: to ensure that sustainable development goals are an integreal part of the post-2015 development framework.
Members: Selection of countries from each region (probably 30)
Slide 29
Integration post-2015 and Sustainable Development
Current Consensus: One global development agenda that Integrates Post 2015 follow-up and Sustainable Development (Rio+20)
•
GA resolution 66/288, sept 2012 (the future we want): ‘…a set of sustainable development goals that should “incorporate in a balanced way all three dimensions of sustainable development and their interlinkages Nations development agenda beyond 2015’ ” and “should be coherent with and integrated into the United
•
HLP report: A Global Partnership: Eradicate poverty and transform economies through sustainable development
Slide 30
HLP Goal 1 End Poverty, IIlustrative Targets:
Bring the number of people living on less than $1.25 a day to zero
and
reduce by x% the share of people living below their country’s 2015 national poverty line Increase by x% the share of women and men, communities, and businesses with secure rights to land, property, and other assets Cover x% of people who are poor and vulnerable with social protection systems Build resilience and reduce deaths from natural disasters by x%
Slide 31
Quotes Statistics and Data in HLP Report:
Data revolution ‘…a new international initiative to improve the quality of statistics and information available to people and government’ ‘…a true data revolution would draw on existing and new sources of data to fully integrate statistics into decision making, promote open access to and use of data and increased support for statistical systems’ ‘strengthen data and statistics for accountability and decision making’ ‘Disaggregating by place, Data broken down by income quintiles’ ‘Better data and statistics will help governments track progress and make sure their decisions are evidence based; they can also strengthen accountability. This is not just about governments. International agencies, CSOs and the private sector should be involved .’ ‘Data is one of the keys to transparency, which is the cornerstone of accountability. Too often, development efforts have been hampered by a lack of the most basic data about the social and economic circumstances in which people live.’
Slide 32
UNTT report
16. The format of the MDG framework brought an inspirational vision together with a set of concrete and time-bound goals and targets that could be monitored by statistically robust indicators. This has not only helped keep the focus on results, but also motivated the strengthening of statistical systems and use of quality data to improve policy design and monitoring by national governments and international organizations.
26. Given the high degree of global interdependence, setting collective goals and targets to be pursued by the world community will remain meaningful. In doing so, however, a one-size-fits-all approach should be avoided. Needed flexibility should be ensured to tailor targets to regional, national and sub-national conditions and priorities, while respecting international standards, and should be tracked with data disaggregated by sex, age and geography (including rural-urban location).Such tailoring of development targets to national and local circumstances is most effectively and legitimately done through participatory processes.
79. Improving access to geographical information and geospatial data, and building capacities to use scientific information in areas such as climate monitoring, land use planning, water management, disaster risk reduction, health and food security, will allow for more accurate environmental and social impact assessments and more informed decision-making at all levels.
116. Targets should also be set in a way to measure the prevailing inequalities and sustainability aspects. Defining qualitative indicators and more availability of data disaggregated by sex, age, geography, migrant status and rural-urban location will be critical to monitor both the degree to which development progress is indeed inclusive and sustainable, and the extent to which the needs of the most deprived and vulnerable groups are being addressed. Such indicators and data will also facilitate better assessment of policy effectiveness and contribute to strengthening accountability. However, producing them will require strengthening statistical capacities in most countries.
117. The ability of people to hold institutions accountable — for delivery of quality services; for responsiveness, recourse and transparency; and for setting and adjusting priorities and targets — is key to people’s empowerment. Well-defined, rule-of-law-based performance standards and benchmarks for accountability can generate confidence among the public in their institutions, thereby building support for the global development agenda. Pluralistic, independent media may help raise public awareness about development issues, empowering people with information to better monitor implementation and performance and hold governments accountable. National measures of progress should be complemented with disaggregated data and qualitative information for better understanding of factors contributing to and impeding progress in improving peoples’ lives. These efforts can build on existing household survey programmes, while promoting community-led monitoring, wider access to ICT resources and the use of social media for development.
135. The development of indicators for agreed targets could be tasked to an inter-agency and expert group on indicators, with advice from the UN Statistical Commission, as has been the case with the MDG framework.The group could also be tasked with reviewing the numerical aspects of setting targets, which should be based on accurate assessment of past trends at the global, regional and sub-regional levels.
Slide 33
OWG progress report
19. Poverty eradication remains the overarching objective of the international community and needs to be central to a proposal on sustainable development goals and the post-2015 United Nations development agenda.
33. To ensure that progress is measurable and measured, it will be important to have quantified targets and to ensure that countries have the necessary data collection and statistical capacities to support robust indicators of progress.
36. Income poverty remains the principal target, but poverty is multidimensional and other dimensions need to be addressed in the sustainable development goals, as they were to a degree in the Millennium Development Goals. That includes universal access to adequate and nutritious food as well as to basic services like water and sanitation, primary health care and education, and modern energy services. 38. Still, to measure progress, it would be important to collect disaggregated data, to ensure that no income group or other social group is left behind.
39. In that way, poverty eradication would be addressed not only as a stand alone goal but also as a cross-cutting objective in other goals.
Slide 34
Links for Further Reading:
UNTT: Realizing the Future We Want for all: http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/untaskteam_undf/index.shtml
High Level Panel on the Post-2015 Development Agenda http://www.post2015hlp.org/ Draft outcome document UN special event: http://www.un.org/en/ga/president/67/issues/mdgs/mdgs.shtml
Open Working Group http://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/index.php?menu=1549 The World We Want: http://www.worldwewant2015.org/sitemap My World 2015: http://www.myworld2015.org/ UN Global Contact: http://www.unglobalcompact.org/ Beyond 2015: http://www.beyond2015.org/ UNDP: http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/mdgoverview/mdg_goals/post-2015-development-agenda/ Power of numbers project: http://fxb.harvard.edu/working-paper-series/
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