Transcript Report from GIFS-TIGGE working group Richard Swinbank, and Zoltan Toth, with thanks to the GIFS-TIGGE working group, THORPEX IPO and other colleagues Presentation for THORPEX ICSC-9,

Report from
GIFS-TIGGE working group
Richard Swinbank,
and Zoltan Toth,
with thanks to the GIFS-TIGGE working group,
THORPEX IPO and other colleagues
Presentation for THORPEX ICSC-9, September 2011
TIGGE and GIFS
 TIGGE
 TIGGE archive status
 TIGGE research
 GIFS developments
 Examples of products based on TIGGE data
 Building links with CBS & operational forecasting
TIGGE project
 Since 2006, TIGGE has been collecting ensemble predictions
from 10 of the leading global forecast centres.
 TIGGE data are made available after a 48-hour delay, to support
research on probabilistic forecasting methods, predictability and
dynamical processes.
 50+ TIGGE articles published in scientific literature.
TIGGE Archive Usage
150
10000
120
1000
90
Volume (GB)
100000
100
60
10
30
NB. CMA usage data incomplete.
1
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Month
Aug
Number of Users (Count)
(NCAR
+ ECMWF)
2011 TIGGE Archive Usage (All
Portals)
Vol Accessed (GB)
Vol Delivered (GB)
# Active Users
TIGGE-LAM:
TIGGE for limited-area models
To complement the global TIGGE project, the TIGGE-LAM panel, chaired by
Tiziana Paccagnella (ARPA-SIM), supports the coordinated development of
Limited Area Model Ensemble Prediction Systems.
 This Panel works in close coordination with pre-existing LAM EPS
initiatives, the GIFS-TIGGE WG, the WWRP Mesoscale Weather
Forecasting Research group, and THORPEX regional committees.
 The panel facilitates the interoperability of the different modelling
systems and coordinates the archiving of limited-area ensemble
forecasts – the three TIGGE archive centres have agreed to host a
sub-set of high priority data
 The TIGGE LAM Panel is being restructured in Regional sub-groups
to facilitate the focus on regional activities.
 The TIGGE-LAM plan is available from the TIGGE-LAM website
http://www.smr.arpa.emr.it/tiggelam/.
Publicising TIGGE
 Major Article in BAMS
 New leaflet to publicise
TIGGE to researchers
 Contribution to GEO
book “Crafting
Geoinformation”
 Tropical cyclone case
study in WMO Bulletin
 Update of TIGGE
website
TIGGE Research focus
Following the successful establishment of the TIGGE
dataset, the main focus of the GIFS-TIGGE working
group has shifted towards research on ensemble
forecasting.
Current emphasis:
 Calibration and combination methods
 Bias correction, downscaling
 Multi-model ensembles; reforecasts
 Development of probabilistic forecast products – GIFS
development
 Tropical cyclones (CXML-based)
 Gridded data: heavy precipitation; strong winds
Focus has been on downstream application of
ensembles, rather than on improving EPSs
TIGGE Research needs & priorities
 But other important areas for EPSs include
 Initial conditions – link with ensemble data assimilation
(DAOS)
 Representing model error – stochastic physics (PDP, WGNE)
 Verification of ensemble forecasts (JWGFVR)
 Seamless forecasting – links with sub-seasonal forecasting
(new project)
 Convective-scale ensembles (TIGGE-LAM, MWFR)
 These areas, particularly first two, are important for
improving EPS skill and products.
 TIGGE is an excellent resource for comparing EPS
techniques.
Evolution of TIGGE & GIFS
TIGGE
development
Time
 We propose that the GIFS-TIGGE should also be a forum to
focus on R&D directed at improving our EPS systems, to help us
develop a “virtuous circle”.
 We will have a section of the WG meeting for discussing
ensemble initial conditions, stochastic physics & other aspects of
improving our EPSs.
 We also need to maintain an interest in ensemble verification &
links with convective-scale EPS and the new sub-seasonal to
seasonal group.
Towards a Global Interactive Forecast
System (GIFS)
 Our objective is to realise the benefits of THORPEX research by
developing and evaluating probabilistic products.
 Focus on risks of high-impact weather events – unlikely but
potentially catastrophic.
 First step: exchange of real-time tropical cyclone predictions
using “Cyclone XML” format.
 Followed by development of products based on gridded forecasts
of heavy precipitation & strong wind.
Piers
Buchanan,
Met Office
Tropical cyclone products
from MRI/JMA http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/cyclone/
Tetsuo
Nakazawa
TC Strike probability at specific time
(based on dressed ensemble)
Wesley Smith, Paula McCaslin & Zoltan Toth, NOAA/ESRL
2. Website of RSMC La Réunion
Website of RSMC
La Réunion
Matthieu Plu
Nicole Girardot
Example: TC Bingzia (Feb 2011)
80 kt
Website of RSMC
La Réunion
Matthieu Plu
Nicole Girardot
85 kt
90 kt
Track Forecasts
Official RSMC forecast
Uncertainty cone (derived from EPS)
Track forecasts from deterministic models
Website of RSMC La Réunion
Strike Probabilities
PEARP (Meteo-France)
Website of RSMC La Réunion
ECMWF EPS
Case 2: Flash floods/snow in South Africa (June 2011)
East London, South Africa
00UTC 08 June, 2011
Case study &
prototype products
courtesy Mio
Matsueda
Case 2: Flash floods/snow in South Africa (June 2011)
+ 9-day
forecast
Case 2: Flash floods/snow in South Africa (June 2011)
+ 8-day
forecast
Case 2: Flash floods/snow in South Africa (June 2011)
+ 7-day
forecast
Case 2: Flash floods/snow in South Africa (June 2011)
+ 6-day
forecast
Case 2: Flash floods/snow in South Africa (June 2011)
+ 5-day
forecast
Case 2: Flash floods/snow in South Africa (June 2011)
+ 4-day
forecast
Case 2: Flash floods/snow in South Africa (June 2011)
+ 3-day
forecast
Case 2: Flash floods/snow in South Africa (June 2011)
+ 2-day
forecast
Case 2: Flash floods/snow in South Africa (June 2011)
+ 1-day
forecast
Other possible visualisation:
combined warnings
Prototype product courtesy
Mio Matsueda
TIGGE and GIFS
 What should be the balance between:
 TIGGE and EPS research & development, or
 Developing & evaluating new products for GIFS?
 As discussed earlier, the GIFS-TIGGE WG will
continue to develop & maintain TIGGE and take a
broad interest in EPS research & development.
 But we are not the right people to run a forecast
demonstration project.
 Instead, we will work closely with the CBS SWFDP
and WWRP RDPs and FDPs on the evaluation of
prototype products in specific regions.
Next steps to progress use of GIFS
products in SWFDP
 Provide documentation of prototype products
 GIFS-TIGGE WG representative to attend SWFDP SG
meeting early next year
 Seek feedback from RSMCs coordinating SWFDP
regional subprojects
 Develop real-time products for SWFDP based on
preferred prototypes
 Provide training via SWFDP
Fostering new GIFS developments
 Multi-model versions of existing products
 Synthesise information from similar products currently
produced by several centres
 Develop novel products
 To address requirements of users, in consultation with RMSCs
 Improve communication between different groups
working on product development – focus groups
 GEOWOW (GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and
Water) is a 3-year EU-funded FP7 project starting September
2011.
 The Weather component includes:
 improving access to TIGGE data at ECMWF.
 developing and demonstrating forecast products.
 Weather participants: ECMWF, Met Office, Météo-France, KIT
 Involve other TIGGE partners in planning development &
demonstration of products in conjunction with SWFDP.
GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011
Summary
 Since October 2006, the TIGGE archive has been
accumulating regular ensemble forecasts from leading
global NWP centres.
 The TIGGE data set has been used for a wide range
of scientific research studies.
 Various products have been developed to use the
tropical cyclone forecast data exchanged using CXML,
and, more recently, prototype gridded products from
the TIGGE data set.
 The SWFDP regional centres will assess the prototype
GIFS products for possible inclusion as real-time
products on the SWFDP websites, and we will
collaborate with them on implementation & evaluation.
TIGGE website: http://tigge.ecmwf.int