Transcript HAVE THE YOUNGER POPULATION LOST INTEREST IN CARS? An Interim Report Alan E. Pisarski.

HAVE THE YOUNGER
POPULATION LOST INTEREST
IN CARS?
An Interim Report
Alan E. Pisarski
The Question is: are younger people less
oriented to private vehicles or not?
It is argued that the younger population:
 Is more cell-phone addicted;
 Is more high density oriented;
 Is less interested in mobility;
 Thinks cars are for old folks;
 Thinks walk, bike, transit are the new thing;
Really? Lots more serious study needed!
In the midst of this research
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As is typical these days in Washington people find what
they want to find; Lets call it advocacy analysis
Washington is something like ground central for the idea
Washington, Arlington and Alexandria are in the top ten
nationally of areas with the highest percentage of
persons living alone – above 40%
Joel Kotkin calls such places: Graduate Student Resorts!
In the midst of this research

The really tough dichotomy regarding this question
and almost everything else today is:
how much is a product of the present pathetic
economy and associated issues; and/or
 how much really is a new trend?


Time will tell; but here’s some of the key
considerations in separating bubble from trend
Among the key factors

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
Incomes
Youth & Parent Unemployment
Age and Ethnicity factors
High vehicle operating costs
 Gas
 Insurance
 Maintenance

New State Graduated Licensing
The share of younger population is
declining
Percent of Population; ages 15-29
30%
28%
26%
28%
29%
26%
26%
27%
27%
24%
24%
22%
20%
18%
23%
19%
23%
The boomers
learn to drive
21%
21%
20%
16%
14%
12%
10%
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
The excitement about one person
households is way overstated
There are 30
million persons
in one person
households;
About 19
million of
which are
women
only about
1.3 million are
under 30
years of age
Age Distribution in One Person Households
16-24 25-30
3% 31-34
2%
3%
65 Plus
40%
35-64
52%
Mostly “little old ladies”
Thousands
shares by age of one person households
20000
18000
16000
14000
65 Plus
12000
35-64
10000
31-34
25-30
8000
16-24
6000
4000
2000
0
MALE
FEMALE
Minorities are a Major Share of our
Young Population -2011 ACS
BLACK AND HISPANIC SHARES OF POPULATION
At least a third of
the population
below the age of
35 are minorities
2009 16-24
45%
Hispanic
17%
Other
3%
40%
35%
30%
Axis Title
More likely to be
low income and
to have
unemployment in
the family
Asian
3%
Black
11%
White
66%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Under 5 to 9 10 to
5 years years
14
years
15 to 18 and 20 to
17
19
24
years years years
25 to
29
years
30 to
34
years
35 to
44
years
45 to
54
years
55 to
64
years
65 to
74
years
75 to
84
years
85
years
and
over
OVERALL, BLACK & HISPANIC POPULATIONS HAD BIG
GAINS IN AUTO OWNERSHIP THIS DECADE – SOME
LOSSES SINCE RECESSION
IN 2000
% Households without vehicles trend
ALL 10.3%
All
BLACK 23.8%
Black
Hispanic
50
45
HISPAN 17.2%
ALL 8.9%
BLACK 20%
HISPAN 12.4%
Percent
IN 2009
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
(WHT NON-H 6.4%)
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
2007
2009
More young people living at home
Percent of Young People Living at Home
70
60
50
18-24 Men
40
18-24 Women
25-34 Men
30
25-34 Women
20
10
0
1960
1970
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2009
Source: US Census TAD-1. Young Adults Living At Home: 1960 to Present
Younger people have “staff” !
Percent of Non-Drivers who Live with Other Drivers
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
16-19
NHTS analysis FHWA
20-24
25-29
All other Non-Drivers
A key factor affecting young –
Graduated Licensing

Begun in mid nineties; often goes in 3 phases
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
Age limits in learner stage
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
Learner stage
Intermediate stage
Full privilege
Only 1 state does not control length of learner stage - 3 months minimum
49 states & DC ban night driving in intermediate stage
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

Minimum age
45 states restrict psgrs
46 require supervised driving
Minimum age for full licensing
 Driver’s Ed. has been a casualty of school budgets
COINCIDES WITH IMPROVED SAFETY AND TRAVEL CHANGES

Not much change in overall licensing
this decade's licensing trend
100
Young women
ahead of men
90
80
70
19 UNDER M
%
60
19 UNDER F
20-24 M
20-24 F
50
Both sexes
equally
constrained
40
30
20
10
0
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Insurance costs have been rising
Adding a
male under
25 can raise
family car
insurance 2x
strange stability in spending over 5 turbulent years
45%
40%
veh purch
40.21%
gas
Maintenance and repairs
Vehicle insurance
37.04%
35%
percent of transportation spending
insurance rose
from $778 in
2000 to $886
in 2006 and
to $1,010 in
2010 up 30%
in the decade
34.70%
30%
25%
33.71%
32.02%
31.56%
26.18%
27.77%
27.22%
25.93%
20%
15%
10%
10.41%
8.09%
12.23%
12.94%
8.43%
8.50%
14.04%
9.57%
13.16%
10.25%
5%
0%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
THE BIG DRIVER: JOBS
Percent Workers within Age Group
90%
80%
82%
85%
82%
70%
Percent Workers
60%
70%
62%
72%
66%
56%
50%
16-24
25-29
40%
55-64
30%
65+
20%
10%
0%
1990
NHTS FHWA
1995
2001
2009
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
Dates
ALL 16-19
White 1619
Black 1619
HISP 16-19
May 2012
24.6
22.0
36.5
30.4
April 2012
24.9
22.1
38.2
26.1
Nov 2012
April 2009 20.9
18.8
33.5
26.5
16-19 24%
May 2009
23.6
21.1
40.1
31.0
May 2001
12.6
11.2
23.4
6.1 all Hisp
April 2001
13.3
11.5
24.4
6.1 all Hisp
Unemployment in 2001
was about half
of present
Blk 41.3%
20-24 14.6%
Blk 25.2%
Re Unemployment
PEW CENTER STUDY Feb 2010
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
Pew Center – 37% of young respondents either out
of work or underemployed. Highest in 3 decades of
surveying.
High percentages of college grads are unemployed
or under-employed in jobs that don’t require their
degrees.
W. Post Nov 2012 (of AU law grads only 1/3 w
jobs in field; 80% have loans av $150k)
The African-American Population
Dramatic declines in workers
Mixed picture on Licensing
Worker Trend
Driver License Trend
100%
100%
90%
90%
80%
80%
70%
70%
60%
60%
50%
50%
40%
40%
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
0%
0%
Black 2001
16-24
Black 2009
25-30
31-34
Black 2001
16-24
Black 2009
25-30
31-34
A similar picture among Hispanics
Sharp declines in workers
Again mixed
Worker Trend
Driver License Trend
100%
100%
90%
90%
80%
80%
70%
70%
60%
60%
50%
50%
40%
40%
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
0%
0%
hisp 01
16-24
Hisp 09
25-30
31-34
Hisp 2001
16-24
Hisp 2009
25-30
31-34
White Non-Hisp. also saw declines
Better situation - Pattern same
More decline?
Worker Trend
Driver License Trend
100%
100%
90%
90%
80%
80%
70%
70%
60%
60%
50%
50%
40%
40%
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
0%
0%
White 2001
16-24
White 2009
25-30
31-34
White 2001
16-24
White 2009
25-30
31-34
Transit shares rose among minorities – are they the
ones most likely to lose car access? LIFO?
Transit Share of Younger Pop
12.00%
10.00%
blk 16-24
blk 25-30
8.00%
Axis Title
blk 31-34
hsp 16-24
6.00%
hsp 25-30
hsp 31-34
4.00%
wht 16-24
2.00%
wht 25-30
wht 31-34
0.00%
2001
2009
A little closer look- all ages grew
Big jump in 25-30 group
Less so here
Transit Share of Travel by
Younger Pop
12.00%
6.00%
10.00%
5.00%
8.00%
4.00%
Axis Title
Axis Title
Transit Share of Travel by
Younger Pop
6.00%
3.00%
4.00%
2.00%
2.00%
1.00%
0.00%
0.00%
2001
blk 16-24
2009
blk 25-30
blk 31-34
2001
hsp 16-24
2009
hsp 25-30
hsp 31-34
Miles driven are down far more among
non-workers of either sex
Annual Miles by Worker Status 16-24
Male non-workers down
27%
16,000
Male Workers down
14%
14,000
Females 14%08%
12,000
------------------------------
Axis Title
25-30 age groups did a
little better
10,000
8,000
Male 22%/12%
6,000
Female 11%/07%
4,000
2,000
0
1994
NHTS FHWA
1996
1998
2000
2002
Axis Title
2004
2006
MALE WORKER 16-24
MALE NON-WORKER 16-24
FEMALE WORKER
FEMALE NON-WORKER
2008
2010
VMT trend is not just weak economy or gas
prices- it’s a long term demographic trend
6
ANNUAL VMT GROWTH RATE BY
DECADE
percent change
5
4
3
2
1
0
1950's
1960's
1970's
1980's
1990's
2000's
TEST: PICK OUT THE YOUNG! THE CHOICES ARE:
under 16; 16-20; 21-35; 36-65; over 65
PSGR MILES PER DAY BY AGE GROUP
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1983
1990
1995
2001
2009
DID ANYONE GET IT RIGHT?
PSGR MILES PER DAY BY AGE GROUP
60
50
46
44.3
40
36.4
34.4
30
38.1
37.7
31.1
29.5
25
20
45.6
25.3
24.5
22.2
20.1
16.2
10
Under 16
0
1983
1990
16 to 20
21 to 35
1995
36 to 65
2001
Over 65
2009
Transportation is more important to the
young in terms of spending
Both under 25’s
and 25-34
group spend
more on
transportation as
share of total
expenditures
and as share of
total income
TRANSPORTATION SPENDING BY AGE GROUP - 2011
trans share of expenditures
trans share of income
20%
18%
18%
17%
17%
17%
16%
16%
15%
13%
13%
13%
12%
12%
35-44 years
45-54 years
55-64 years
CEX
All consumer units Under 25 years
25-34 years
65-74 years
They are first in transportation
spending
% of Spending
Under 25
years
Transportation
18.3%
Also lead in spending per vehicle
25-34
years
18.4%
All consumers Note
16.7%
All others under
17%
And on other good stuff
% of Spending
Under 25
years
Transportation
18.3%
25-34
years
All consumers Note
18.4%
16.7%
All others under
17%
Also lead in spending per vehicle
Food away from
home
6.6%
5.8%
5.3%
1st and 2nd
Alcoholic beverages
1.4%
1.1%
.92%
All others under
1%
Lead in spending per vehicle
spending on transportation per vehicle owned
2.5
$6,000
1.1
$5,000
number of vehicles
1.7
2.0
1.9
2.3
2.0
2.1
$4,000
1.6
1.5
$3,000
1.0
$2,000
0.5
$1,000
0.0
$0
All consumer units
Under 25 years
25-34 years
35-44 years
45-54 years
55-64 years
65 years and older
Transit is more important to young than other
age groups but still minor overall
Under 25’s
spend almost
2%; they
spend 3 times
more on air
travel than on
transit
Annual Spending on Transit 2011
120
103.29
80
97.53
97.45
100
dollars
All consumer
units spend less
than 1% of
their
transportation
spending on
transit
79.51
75.09
72.67
60
40
25.76
26.41
20
0
Intracity mass t
All
consumer
units
75.09
Under 25
years
25-34
years
35-44
years
45-54
years
55-64
years
65 years
and older
75 years
and older
103.29
97.45
72.67
97.53
79.51
25.76
26.41
Decline in hh trips 2001-2009
DECLINE IN HH PERSON TRIPS BY INCOME
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
-2.00%
-4.00%
% change
If we think of
trips as
mandatory or
discretionary
then middle
income hh
would have
most cost
pressure and
most
discretionary
travel to cut
-6.00%
-8.00%
-10.00%
-12.00%
-14.00%
-16.00%
Some concluding thoughts:
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Yes they love their cell phones, texting and cafés
Yes they spend lots of time on games
Yes they love the environment
Some of them love the Graduate Student Resorts
But the economy seems to be a perfectly adequate explanation of
declining use of autos recently, abetted by some of the other costs
exacted on the young
– and we never even mentioned college loans!
(AU lawyer grads 80% have loans av 150k 1/3 w jobs in field)

We need to give it time --- and to produce more un-biased data
collection and analysis instead of advocacy analysis
A new study by AAA Safety Foundation will be out soon that
will help
TIME WILL TELL -- Thank You !
And MANY thanks to:
Adella Santos
Susan Liss
Nancy McGuckin
Elaine Murakami
who helped greatly with the data sets from the National Household Travel
Survey
Alan E. Pisarski
alanpisarski.com
Get shares of pop hisp black 01
A third of age
group is
minority pop
2009 Race and Ethnicity by age group
16-24
Hispanic
17%
Other
3%
Asian
3%
Black
11%
White
66%