Transcript Kenya & R2P Great Decisions, February 13, 2010 KENYA'S ETHNIC GROUPS Population 34.5m, comprising more than 40 ethnic groups.

Kenya & R2P
Great Decisions, February 13, 2010
KENYA'S ETHNIC GROUPS
Population 34.5m, comprising more than 40 ethnic groups
KENYA: Context
• Population 34.5m, comprising more than 40
ethnic groups;
• Kikuyu largest but not majority (22%),
traditionally dominant, converted to
Christianity, western education, partners with
British colonial rule;
• Mau Mau, strong role in governing, left Kikuyu
as dominant group at independence
KENYA: Event
OUTLINE OF EVENTS:
• 1990: multiparty riots, donor demands for liberalization;
• 1992, 1997: election violence;
• 2002: Kibaki wins presidency, with Odinga’s support; some election
violence;
• December 2007: election, Raila Odinga was leading by 1.2 mil votes
when Mwai Kibaki’s reelection victory was announced;
– (Opposition 99 seats in Parliament, President’s party 43 seats)
• Tampering immediately denounced by international observers;
• Immediately, rioting begins across the nation; Luo in west, Kalenjin
in central highlands; Kikuyu response violent, with little control by
police, army;
– ~1,300 dead, 600,000 displaced. ~ethnic cleansing?
KENYA: Mediation
Regional Authorities, Moral Authority &
Respected Leaders:
• Pressure from Desmond Tutu, other African
leaders, including Tanzania leaders;
• AU requested mediation by Kofi Annan
• Team: Annan, Benjamin Mkapa (Tanz), Graca
Machel (Mozambique & S.Africa)
• Support for settlement from donors & allies
Power Sharing Agreement
• Post of Prime Minister with real powers
created;
• Two deputy PMs, one from each party,
protected from arbitrary dismissal;
• Results? Violence ended; systematic changes
have not been made, Odinga’s supporters few
gains,
• tensions remain
R2P?
• Memories of Rwanda and Bosnia clear to
Annan;
• Destruction & disintegration in Region
(Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan) created a sense of
Urgency;
• R2P an implicit, not explicit issue
What is R2P?
• A recently developed concept in IR which
attempts to enforce a State’s responsibilities
toward its own population, and to codify the
circumstances which justify humanitarian
intervention
• Includes violence, especially war crimes,
genocide, ethnic cleansing, crimes against
humanity
Issues?
• State Sovereignty
• UN Charter: “Domestic Jurisdiction”
• Eroding distinction between International and
Domestic issues
• Failure of most attempts to “internationalize”
domestic policy
• Obstacles to “peace keeping” and
humanitarian intervention
Obstacles to Humanitarian
Intervention:
• Institutional Obstacles
– Neutrality of IGO
– suspicion of interveners’ motives
– “Will” of members
– Cost, in money and political capital
Obstacles, cont’d
• Pragmatic Obstacles
– Uncertainty re: actual situation
– Local assistance
– Numbers of refugees, incidence of disease or
famine
– Resources:
remote areas & supply lines
language
skilled workers
Where does this leave us with
R2P?